cnocbui wrote: » An increase in unemployment shouldn't necessarily be taken as inevitably leading to prices dropping in a market where there is supposedly chronic under supply. All that the unemployment does is reduce the demand slightly. The overall demand would have to fall below supply to see the sort of two digit declines some people are hoping for, and I don't think that is going to happen.
Hubertj wrote: » I presume that is why the ESRI are predicting a 12% decrease? I think KBC had 12% (best case) to 25% (worst case) in their forecast?
Shelga wrote: » So do people think there will be a significant drop in property prices over the next year, or not? I know it's an unusual situation with no precedent, but I'm starting to think there won't be. Going absolutely mad living at home, had planned on being well on my way to having keys in my hand by now. Anyway, it'll be like the queue at the supermarket- whatever one you choose will be the wrong one. If I buy now, prices are sure to drop by 20%. If I don't buy now, they'll stay the same. Attempting to buy as a single person so I'm screwed either way.
The_Conductor wrote: » I'd love to know where they are getting their figures from. The fact of the matter is- the vast preponderance of those who have lost their jobs- were never going to be in the market for buying property anyway (with a few obvious exceptions- particularly all those associated with the aviation sector who are being let go (Stobart, DAA, Ryanair) , or having their contracts unilaterally rewritten (a-la IAG). The manner in which income tax is holding up- speaks volumes- those who have lost their jobs weren't in the tax net to begin with, and likely would never have been approved for a mortgage. I still say- akin to the renting thread- that we're not going to have any answer to all these suppositions and ponderings for at least 16-18 months.
Reversal wrote: » It was my impression that those forecasts from KBC and ESRI, are looking at the second and third order effects of the COVID emergency. As in, it's not about people who lost their jobs when the hospitality sector shut down temporarily, but about those who will lose their jobs and have earnings impacted as the dominoes in the economy start to fall over the next 12-18 months.
Wingman2010 wrote: » I’m in a similar position to yourself. I was living in Dublin the last 13 years. I decided to move home to the midlands during this time and I gave up the apartment I was living in. We have been told by our workplace that we will be working from home for the rest of 2020 and long term that it will be ok working from home also so I’m very lucky in that way. I personally like to go to the office 1/2 days a week once things settle down. I was already saving a lot of money and now I’m saving an extra €850 a month since I moved home. I have decided to buy a big new detached house which is yet to be constructed in my home town. A similar house would be €150k more expensive in a commuter town like Celbridge and probably €250k more expensive in Dublin. I’m happy with my decision anyways, it really was a no brainier for me with the money savings! I know of a few more people doing something similar! The best of luck with whatever you decide to do.
GavMan wrote: » And how exactly will banks be making money if they do not lend? Where did you pluck 20% from? Or did you just throw out any old number that sounds good. There will be an increase in unemployment which will reduce the number of buyers potentially but we need to wait to see where we end up. The numbers are soft right now. Vast majority will go back to work. Crucially and what is completely different to 2008 is that housing stock is still low. Vast majority of buyers will remain relatively untouched. But stock will still be low and we've lost 12 weeks of building. That will stabilize prices IMO
Graham wrote: » I think potential; negative interest rates, a relaxation of the bank reserve rules and plenty of EU Central Bank money sloshing around could impact your 20% estimate.
sheepsh4gger wrote: » There's huge asset inflation caused by banks handing out cash.
sheepsh4gger wrote: » There's huge asset inflation caused by banks handing out cash. This whole QE thing just inflated the supply of money and got pushed into housing.
OneMoreBabadee wrote: » The Fed, ECB and pretty much all the world's banks are planning to print money (QE) as a solution to the covid19 fallout. I would actually say tangible assets like property and gold are much safer than cash deposits in the short term future. My own prediction is the relative price of property will remain stagnant for the next 5 years, but the absolute price (in euros, dollars, etc) will rise over that period due to money printing.
cnocbui wrote: An increase in unemployment shouldn't necessarily be taken as inevitably leading to prices dropping in a market where there is supposedly chronic under supply. All that the unemployment does is reduce the demand slightly. The overall demand would have to fall below supply to see the sort of two digit declines some people are hoping for, and I don't think that is going to happen.
The_Conductor wrote: The manner in which income tax is holding up- speaks volumes- those who have lost their jobs weren't in the tax net to begin with, and likely would never have been approved for a mortgage.
accensi0n wrote: » I don't get this part. How is this the case considering the LTI limits?
sheepsh4gger wrote: » I have some experience investing and made a good lot of money in 2017 on crypto. Don't own a house, don't want to. I think property owners are coping hard all over the world. I think the market made them complacent. I strongly believe we're in a "bull trap" at the moment and there will be a crash within 6 months. There's huge asset inflation caused by banks handing out cash. This whole QE thing just inflated the supply of money and got pushed into housing. Here's my plan, mock me if you want to (not afraid of criticism): Currently in Gold (would be in silver but it's taxed here to the roof). I got my 'boomer rocks' in 2017 - cashed out of crypto at the peak of the market and put it in Gold. Every other guy could not see the ponzi scheme and got rekt. Now I'm waiting for the (predicted) crash, pretty much like 2008. I'm going to cash out of Gold in 2023 at the perdicted peak of the market. [I don't try to time things exactly, it's a fool's errand] Then I will see where to go next. Rothschild said 'I buy when there's blood in the streets'. I'll probably buy a house once the market crashes, when the market favors me. They say JP Morgan once said "Gold Is Money, Everything Else Is Credit" and I believe that to be true. There's no free lunch. When every idiot is making money hand over fist it's time to get out. I believe in scarcity and price discovery, but I don't think current prices have any connection to reality. Some think Brexit is going to attract people here, I believe they will just go to Frankfurt instead.
sheepsh4gger wrote: » I think this is what's going to play out again but this time globally:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_banking_crisis_of_1990s
Dav010 wrote: » This is not a financial crises caused by debt, the banks are well capitalised and given that we have recovered from a recent, long recession, lessens have been learned by both Governments and CBs.
pearcider wrote: » The last recession wasn’t recent. We have just finished the longest economic expansion in history which came in at 128 months. The recession has literally just begun on June 1st. It will last minimum 18 months and probably more like 36. As for the banks. Well capitalised? The European banks are basically insolvent and will eventually have to be nationalised. Look at their share prices.
lomb wrote: » It's in non property assets stocks bonds etc and then there is the rising tide that floats all boats.
Nijmegen wrote: » Some of the first hard data we have received has come out in the form of the exchequer results, which shocked everyone on the income side. If incomes are holding up better than expected, VAT etc will come back - and consumer spending generally - as incomes holding up + low spending = enforced savings. That was surprising data that is likely making a lot of people look at their forecast models. There will be an impact, but a few weeks ago on here there were doom mongers circle fantasising about these massive 20-30-40-50% drops that weren't supported by evidence then, but had a lack of any real counterpoint evidence; and definitely aren't evidenced now. In summary: Incomes are holding up better than expected Developers are back building sites aimed at FTBs No evidence has emerged to say that we have mass emigration on the cards and household formation demand is still there - It was well in excess of supply before Covid, so the current trend does not lend support to the idea that demand will fall below supply as we recover given incomes are holding up
pearcider wrote: » Incomes are holding up so far because the government is using huge fiscal stimulus to hold the economy together we are going to run a 30 billion deficit on the back of tax returns of 60 billion last year. Doom mongering has very little to do with it. Your optimism does seem like a bit of a stretch though.
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