Interested Observer wrote: » Stupid question but are the figures given for household income gross or net? Edit - the RTE article is gross so I was wondering if it was a gross v net comparison or something. If you'd ask me to guess the median household income in Ireland I definitely would have gone higher than 45k. Though I suppose that includes plenty of people who aren't in the home buying demographic, like pensioners or basically anyone in their 20s, people in social housing, etc.
kokiyou wrote: » I am not sure if the data is available but if it is would anyone know where to find:1. How many mortgages (particularly) FTB are single applicant vs 2 or more people, ie couples or parental help etc? 2. As mentioned today, is there any detailed Household Gross income information from recent years 2018/2019 that show HH income by single person, or at least per age bracket to remove OAP or youth, married couples etc? It seems like other countries have easily accessible information on wages/income vs Irelands data - or else I am not so good at googling.
lastusername wrote: » Wow, does that mean that only 14% of households have an income where two people are on an average of 50k+ (or one person on 100k+)?!
seamus wrote: » It's certainly weird. The most reasonable explanation is just a low volume of sales. Once everyone is properly back to work and the economic shocks start to hit, we'll see that 5.5% repeated again for a number of months.
shatners bassoon wrote: » Asking price is no barometer. Several places I've been keeping an eye on have been relisted with a substantial increase in asking price, clearly aimed at factoring in a 'discount' to an unsuspecting purchaser.
Billythekid19 wrote: » My Issue with the CSO figures is that it only factors in the official income of people. Your typical mechanic/plumber/ Electrician is officially would often be down as on less than 50k. However how many times have you paid for these jobs with cash in hand, and at 50-100 euro an hour they are certainly on over 50k if working 40 hour weeks!
Reversal wrote: » Agreed, when the data set is small, month to month figures are going to be erratic. And yes it's asking prices, so what EA is going to advise their clients to apply a discount to the asking price now. The asking prices are only going to be based on the most recent sales of similar properties, which were pre COVID. The only possible effect on asking prices at the moment is artificial inflation, to offset low ball offers. The fact that a body representing property professionals use two months worth of limited data, that shows extreme volatility, to say that it's business as usual and nothing to see here, is embarrassing. The dog on the street knows the economic hardship that is only coming over the horizon now. Yet they go on record saying a monthly drop of 5.5% and a bounce of 3.7% is evidence of stable prices for the next 18 months. What planet do these people operate on.
Marius34 wrote: » Right the report looks "crude". Actually proportion of New builds was normal in April, but very low in May, in particular in Dublin, very low number of New build transactions. There is massive price increase in "row" data seen in April, I believe due to some "Bulk" sales of higher end properties. That's right latest month always low volume, takes over month to see result, but the amount it gets added on weekly basis since middle of April is around 40% lower. Besides, I have done some dashboards on PPR data, for my data engineering studies, on different calculations, cleaning data and reducing anomalies. Sharing one of it, hope it works (never tried to share before), I'm happy to provide any other dashboard if there is interest to see anything specific out of PPR:https://datastudio.google.com/s/rk-PSHr2Qx4
DellyBelly wrote: » I agree with you. I think the average wage for Dublin would be in the 65K + bracket I would think. Most of my friends would be on greater than that to be honest. I am unsure how someone could survive on Dublin on less than 50K a year...and even that is a poor enough salary..
awec wrote: » If they had used two months of data to say that prices are about to fall off a cliff would you be complaining? Data right now is obviously skewed massively, but some seem happy to use it if it backs up their own view, while outright dismissing it if it doesn't.
LuckyLloyd wrote: » We’re all limited by our anecdotal experience. People in the top 10% of incomes often assume they are nowhere near that bracket. This is particularly true for college educated people who work professional jobs where the majority of their friends do the same. I’m in that bracket and I struggle to accept where we sit versus average / median incomes. It doesn’t feel true. The income figures from the CSO are gross. I’ll comfortably assume the income figures in the central bank data are gross too.
JimmyVik wrote: » If you look at the actual € amount you pay in tax compared to someone in a much lower salary bracket than you you will see why the actual difference in income is not what the gross difference suggests. Thats probably why it doesnt feel like it to you
Reversal wrote: » "the housing market is likely to be more stable over the course of the next 12 to 18 months than many had thought." Absolute comedy gold
Reversal wrote: » The fact that a body representing property professionals use two months worth of limited data, that shows extreme volatility, to say that it's business as usual and nothing to see here, is embarrassing. The dog on the street knows the economic hardship that is only coming over the horizon now. Yet they go on record saying a monthly drop of 5.5% and a bounce of 3.7% is evidence of stable prices for the next 18 months. What planet do these people operate on.
Reversal wrote: » Where did I outright dismiss the data? I commented on the use of data, which shows anything but a stable market, to declare stability in the market for the next 18 months. Highlighted the pitfalls of using such a small data set, yes, dismissed it, no. Please enlighten me as to where I've been happy to use an equally dubious set of stats becaus it backed up my own view. Some seem happy to not even read a post properly if doesn't back up theirs.
Shelga wrote: » So do people think there will be a significant drop in property prices over the next year, or not? I know it's an unusual situation with no precedent, but I'm starting to think there won't be. Going absolutely mad living at home, had planned on being well on my way to having keys in my hand by now. Anyway, it'll be like the queue at the supermarket- whatever one you choose will be the wrong one. If I buy now, prices are sure to drop by 20%. If I don't buy now, they'll stay the same. Attempting to buy as a single person so I'm screwed either way.
Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: » I feel too many want a crash to happen that it won't happen.
lomb wrote: » Before Covid I dont think banks checked anything. Likely they dont want to lend now due to having lent out money to the 10% not paying their mortgage they dont want to overextend. Also their share prices have collapsed so they cant issue fresh share capital to buffer their balance sheets. They are looking for any excuse to get out. I drew down a few weeks ago but was a bit of a nightmare. And I had a pre Covid full loan offer in writing that was signed and valid pre Covid. I sense they would prefer if buyers pulled out of the purchases than they withdrew the offer. Im convinced property will fall by 20% minimum within 2 years saying all that and I think they probably realise that too leaving most new mortgages exposed on LTVs and negative equity
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