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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Geuze

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Average age is 34 and average income is 90k(I'd assume that's combined for most). Its not that hard to assume inheritance isn't a large part of it.

Would typical parents be dead by the time mortgage applicant is age 34?

I'd suggest gifts over inheritance.

Graham

Geuze wrote: »

Ok.

195k to 140k is a 28% fall.

Not ideal but depending on the interest rates could still leave the poster with some equity and represent a saving compared to the cost of renting for 15 years.

JJJackal

Changes in house prices are going to be mediated by a small number of sales. At this time the sale of really expensive houses could suggest a rise and the sale of a few very cheap houses could suggest a fall. I know Daft etc tries to factor this in but at the same time if the number of total sales is small...

Geuze

awec wrote: »

Even on 90k, a 79k deposit is enormous.

The average FTB is definitely not saving that sort of money.

Paying high Dublin rents, maybe not.

But two people, 800pm saving, five years = 96k saved.

Not unlikely.

GreeBo

awec wrote: »

Even on 90k, a 79k deposit is enormous.

The average FTB is definitely not saving that sort of money.

Well its 10 years of saving €8k a year (~650 a month)...It's very good saving but I wouldnt think its crazy, for 2 dedicated people.

Geuze

awec wrote: »

Even on 90k, a 79k deposit is enormous.

The average FTB is definitely not saving that sort of money.

Excl gifts, I had maybe 70k saved by time of mortgage application, that's one income, aged 30 approx.

I consider myself fairly average, job was not high paying, maybe a bit above average, but not as high as law or accounting jobs.

But, I wasn't paying current high Dublin rents.

[Deleted User]

Billythekid19 wrote: »

The boom is back baby! The price of housing across the country has risen by 3.7% in May.

Albeit the latest Daft.ie Housing Market Report shows the rebound after the cost of buying a home fell by 5.5% in April.:)

I would guess this is people expecting reductions in future, put asking up now, less to drop in future.

I expect a flurry of activity now, in the short term. People desperate to draw down mortgages before they lose jobs/ have income reduced.
Also, people who really want to buy have had their hands tied for months, I think these people will be in more if a rush now.

Long term however, I don't expect any increases.

errlloyd

Geuze wrote: »

Paying high Dublin rents, maybe not.

But two people, 800pm saving, five years = 96k saved.

Not unlikely.

The reason this is unlikely isn't that is not possible, it is that it is not logical.

Why wouldn't they have bought much sooner?

awec

JJJackal wrote: »

Changes in house prices are going to be mediated by a small number of sales. At this time the sale of really expensive houses could suggest a rise and the sale of a few very cheap houses could suggest a fall. I know Daft etc tries to factor this in but at the same time if the number of total sales is small...

It's asking prices that have risen though. Not really affected by the number of sales, but also not really indicative of a whole lot other than the mindset of sellers right now.

errlloyd

What does a property mean if it is advertised for sale as "Owner-occupied".

Does it mean it is just an investment property? Or does it mean that the management company has T&Cs that the owner has to live there?

[Deleted User]

Graham wrote: »

Not ideal but depending on the interest rates could still leave the poster with some equity and represent a saving compared to the cost of renting for 15 years.

exactly.

you don't live in a cost-free vacuum in the alternate reality!

looking at moving for a mortgage ourselves in next year if we can. we've always said we wouldn't make decisions based on treating the property as an asset- if we can manage the monthly payment in the right place, that's all we need. anything else is a bonus in the long run.

Marius34

theintern wrote: »

Could be the case alright. Median would probably be more interesting.

Median deposit for FTB in Dublin is around 50K, according to BPFI.

awec

errlloyd wrote: »

What does a property mean if it is advertised for sale as "Owner-occupied".

Does it mean it is just an investment property? Or does it mean that the management company has T&Cs that the owner has to live there?

It means the current owner lives there and it's not rented out.

SozBbz

awec wrote: »

It means the current owner lives there and it's not rented out.

The inference is that owner occupied properties are in better condition that say former rental properties which were likely cheaply decorated and perhaps only maintained to a basic standard.

Obviously it depends on the owner. There are owner occupied properties (especially executor sales) that havent see a paintbrush in 30 years.

Cuddlesworth

errlloyd wrote: »

What does a property mean if it is advertised for sale as "Owner-occupied".

Does it mean it is just an investment property? Or does it mean that the management company has T&Cs that the owner has to live there?

Right now, you can't begin eviction of any tenant regardless of reason. So defining the property as not being a rental with a active tenant seems like a good idea for a landlord. Usually it rarely matters to people.

awec wrote: »

Even on 90k, a 79k deposit is enormous.

The average FTB is definitely not saving that sort of money.

Its not that large, there is a break point where your income scales over your outgoings if your not bad with money.

LuckyLloyd

Geuze wrote: »

The earnings of mortgage applicants are published.

Let me try to find the info.

https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/household-credit-market-report/household-credit-market-report-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=6

See section 3.1

That data is stunning. Particularly when compared to average household income data:

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0620/1056481-cso-geographical-incomes/

Not hard to see why SF did well in Feb and continue to poll well. The current property market is inaccessible to the average household.

LuckyLloyd

Interested Observer wrote: »

I am pretty sure the 'borrower' referenced can be a couple so it's not the average earnings per person, it's the average earnings per mortgage.

Edit - it is household income.

I assume the borrower is a household in the majority of cases, so household income data is directly relevant. I have never seen a political problem illustrated in such a consumable fashion tbh.

The solutions obviously a much more complicated question...

The number of FTB mortgages way less than I would have assumed also. Less than 3k FTB purchased in Dublin last year.

[Deleted User]

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I assume the borrower is a household in the majority of cases, so household income data is directly relevant. I have never seen a political problem illustrated in such a consumable fashion tbh.

The solutions obviously a much more complicated question...

The number of FTB mortgages way less than I would have assumed also. Less than 3k FTB purchased in Dublin last year.

I actually deleted my post because I misread yours but you got in there too quickly!

Stupid question but are the figures given for household income gross or net? Edit - the RTE article is gross so I was wondering if it was a gross v net comparison or something. If you'd ask me to guess the median household income in Ireland I definitely would have gone higher than 45k. Though I suppose that includes plenty of people who aren't in the home buying demographic, like pensioners or basically anyone in their 20s, people in social housing, etc.

LuckyLloyd

Interested Observer wrote: »

I actually deleted my post because I misread yours but you got in there too quickly!

Stupid question but are the figures given for household income gross or net? Edit - the RTE article is gross so I was wondering if it was a gross v net comparison or something. If you'd ask me to guess the median household income in Ireland I definitely would have gone higher than 45k. Though I suppose that includes plenty of people who aren't in the home buying demographic, like pensioners or basically anyone in their 20s, people in social housing, etc.

We’re all limited by our anecdotal experience. People in the top 10% of incomes often assume they are nowhere near that bracket. This is particularly true for college educated people who work professional jobs where the majority of their friends do the same. I’m in that bracket and I struggle to accept where we sit versus average / median incomes. It doesn’t feel true.

The income figures from the CSO are gross. I’ll comfortably assume the income figures in the central bank data are gross too.

manniot2

I wonder will we see large price drops in city and suburb locations (due to remote working) but commuter towns and country locations holding a bit firmer? Be interesting to see if people who can still afford to live close to the cities will want to do so for amenities etc or will the remote working revolution outweigh all these things.

seamus

Reversal wrote: »

Asking prices dropped 5.5% in a MONTH, then recovered 3.7% in a MONTH. Those are extreme figures, and the assessment of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers & Valuers is;

"the housing market is likely to be more stable over the course of the next 12 to 18 months than many had thought."

Absolute comedy gold

In reality, the erratic figures are probably down to a relative lack of data during a effectively shut down market. And actual sales figures will be also, for a time.

It's certainly weird.

The most reasonable explanation is just a low volume of sales.

Once everyone is properly back to work and the economic shocks start to hit, we'll see that 5.5% repeated again for a number of months.

shatners bassoon

Asking price is no barometer.

Several places I've been keeping an eye on have been relisted with a substantial increase in asking price, clearly aimed at factoring in a 'discount' to an unsuspecting purchaser.

thomasdylan

manniot2 wrote: »

I wonder will we see large price drops in city and suburb locations (due to remote working) but commuter towns and country locations holding a bit firmer? Be interesting to see if people who can still afford to live close to the cities will want to do so for amenities etc or will the remote working revolution outweigh all these things.

There are a few commuter towns which very little in them, no good restaurants, etc. They're places where a large amount of their appeal is due to proximity and transport links to Dublin. I don't know how well they will hold up.

[Deleted User]

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

We’re all limited by our anecdotal experience. People in the top 10% of incomes often assume they are nowhere near that bracket. This is particularly true for college educated people who work professional jobs where the majority of their friends do the same. I’m in that bracket and I struggle to accept where we sit versus average / median incomes. It doesn’t feel true.

The income figures from the CSO are gross. I’ll comfortably assume the income figures in the central bank data are gross too.

Yes that's fair enough, my wife and I would both be in the college educated professional Dublin bracket as well and so are most of our friends, it is a bit of a bubble.

Graham

thomasdylan wrote: »

There are a few commuter towns which very little in them, no good restaurants, etc. They're places where a large amount of their appeal is due to proximity and transport links to Dublin. I don't know how well they will hold up.

Which towns? And will the local facilities improve if they move from being dormitory towns?

jimmytwotimes 2013

Geuze wrote: »

Ok.

195k to 140k is a 28% fall.

Bit of a balls alright

TheSheriff

manniot2 wrote: »

I wonder will we see large price drops in city and suburb locations (due to remote working) but commuter towns and country locations holding a bit firmer? Be interesting to see if people who can still afford to live close to the cities will want to do so for amenities etc or will the remote working revolution outweigh all these things.

I would actually have thought the burbs might increase in price due to high salary earners who would previously have been comfortable living very close to work e.g. grand canal, Smithfield etc now deciding to move out and changing what they want e.g. garden. I am sure however there are counter arguments to this hypothesis.

I don't think we'll have a 100% WFH , I know where I am it'll be one day per week, this will likely keep most with some proximity to the main cities.

I don't see a mass exodus to Kildare or Meath. But definitely a pushing out from the city centre to suburbia.

That said, there will likely always be a cohort of high paid workers in Dublin city centre who want to live close to work etc.

tastyt

I think commuter towns are more likely to suffer than the city itself .

The likes of Leixlip, Kilcock , Clane , dunboyne , Celbridge have all doubled or more in population over the past few decades because of there proximity to Dublin.

As standalone places to live they don’t have a whole lot to offer and if you can work from home and don’t need to commute every day you probably wouldn’t choose to live there.

People from further out in the midlands like Kilkenny, Tipp , Laois , Westmeath who live in those places will probably choose to live in their own counties with support groups / family if they only have to go to Dublin 2/3 times per week, especially those with young families.

Alternatively if it’s just a nice town people want they will probably look to the coast more or nice regional places like Kilkenny etc

Young people will still want to enjoy the city life but not sure who will want to live in the commuter towns if they don’t need the transport links

TheSheriff

tastyt wrote: »

I think commuter towns are more likely to suffer than the city itself .

The likes of Leixlip, Kilcock , Clane , dunboyne , Celbridge have all doubled or more in population over the past few decades because of there proximity to Dublin.

As standalone places to live they don’t have a whole lot to offer and if you can work from home and don’t need to commute every day you probably wouldn’t choose to live there.

People from further out in the midlands like Kilkenny, Tipp , Laois , Westmeath who live in those places will probably choose to live in their own counties with support groups / family if they only have to go to Dublin 2/3 times per week, especially those with young families.

Alternatively if it’s just a nice town people want they will probably look to the coast more or nice regional places like Kilkenny etc

Young people will still want to enjoy the city life but not sure who will want to live in the commuter towns if they don’t need the transport links

Agree with this. Commuter towns are by definition full of commuters.

If we remove the need to commute, then there could be an exodus if they are not from the locality.

lastusername

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

We’re all limited by our anecdotal experience. People in the top 10% of incomes often assume they are nowhere near that bracket. This is particularly true for college educated people who work professional jobs where the majority of their friends do the same. I’m in that bracket and I struggle to accept where we sit versus average / median incomes. It doesn’t feel true.

The income figures from the CSO are gross. I’ll comfortably assume the income figures in the central bank data are gross too.

Wow, does that mean that only 14% of households have an income where two people are on an average of 50k+ (or one person on 100k+)?!