How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Is downcow a politician?

No. What DC is moaning about is considered completely normal by Unionist politicians when they do the equivalent.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

It was a rotten Orange statelet though. That's why all those anti-discrimination laws you spoke of had to be enacted.

This coming from someone who celebrates sectarian wars from over 300 years ago and who wants bands who memorialise UDA/UVF killers to have the freedom to march wherever they want.

Unionists have an awful lot more to lose if the north was to be cleansed of any memorialising of violence/violent people.

Is downcow a politician?

downcow wrote: »

Yeah. My local MP is a shinner. He claims to represent all of us equally, yet he had an outburst this week where he referred to NI as a “rotten orange statelet”.

It was a rotten Orange statelet though. That's why all those anti-discrimination laws you spoke of had to be enacted.

His main office/advice centre is in my town, it is named after two ira terrorists who murdered my neighbours and has their names above the door along with either a Palestinian or Irish tricolour depending on his mood. He also refuses to condemn the killing of one of his constituents by the Ira. A real nice guy giving us a warm welcome to his advice centre.

This coming from someone who celebrates sectarian wars from over 300 years ago and who wants bands who memorialise UDA/UVF killers to have the freedom to march wherever they want.

Unionists have an awful lot more to lose if the north was to be cleansed of any memorialising of violence/violent people.

downcow wrote: »

Well north down that you quote is evidence of my point. Alliance won it with a solid majority. Finding anyone wanting to break up the union in north down is like looking for holy water in an orange hall. I think it is the most unionist constituency in Northern Ireland. That gives you some sense of where people see the alliance party.

I agree with you that most of the Alliance votes are likely to come from traditional pro union voters. But it is an illustration of the changing voting trends.

Alliance already have demonstrated that they can win in North Down, possibly East Belfast next time where to next, North Antrim? And what does it mean for the traditional main Unionist parties?

Shefwedfan wrote: »

You will find most of the people on here dont live in ther North, have never lived in the North and have no idea what they are talking about.

Then you have some who seem to be stuck in the 60 when all they are interested in is religion. Oh if we get a united ireland then screw the Unionists.

This is the sort of attitude we seen which led to the troubles. Thankful the majority of people in Rep and Northern Ireland have a lot more sense.

They can call people all sorts of names to try to make their point seem more qualified but in reality they can't answer the basic. It is standard SF and SF supporters from what I can see, all talk with nothing to back it up. What else could you expect from a party that has such poor leadership.

If they went into a conference now, after the first 2 minutes SF would not be able to answer questions so like on here they would try to start insulting people. Its the same childish politics which shut down the North for 3 years. Same childish politics that has seen SF who "won" the election end up joining with no other party.

Yeah.
My local MP is a shinner. He claims to represent all of us equally, yet he had an outburst this week where he referred to NI as a “rotten orange statelet”. His main office/advice centre is in my town, it is named after two ira terrorists who murdered my neighbours and has their names above the door along with either a Palestinian or Irish tricolour depending on his mood. He also refuses to condemn the killing of one of his constituents by the Ira.
A real nice guy giving us a warm welcome to his advice centre. Lol

eire4

jh79 wrote: »

What were the opinion polls like prior to the actual vote? From memory were people not surprised with the actual outcome?

No the polls predicted the referendum would not succeed so your memory is incorrect. The consensus of polls at the time suggested a closer margin around 5 points rather then what it ended up being at 10 points but the result itself was not a surprise at all.

mehico wrote: »

The most obvious change would be electoral representatives from the main Unionist parties no longer returning a majority in both the Westminster and NI Assembly elections.

Significantly 3 out of the 4 Belfast constituencies in the recent Westminster election were won by Nationalist parties with the DUP narrowly holding on in the previoisly safe East Belfast constituency.

If the recent voting patterns continue in future elections, the traditional main Unionist parties will have a tough time on their hands to retain their seats from the Alliance party in constituencies such East Belfast, East Antrim, Lagan Valley, Strangford. They have already lost to Allience in North Down, another previously safe Unionist seat.

I understand what you are saying about Alliance voters likely to be pro Union but the party is also pro EU and I believe the party have previously said they were at least willing to engage in discussion around the issue of Irish unity.

Well north down that you quote is evidence of my point. Alliance won it with a solid majority. Finding anyone wanting to break up the union in north down is like looking for holy water in an orange hall. I think it is the most unionist constituency in Northern Ireland. That gives you some sense of where people see the alliance party.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There were promises made by Cameron re: EU and devolution. None were fulfilled.
The economy featured throughout the campaign.

Just saying SF could learn a lot from how Scotland improved its economy since then. We all agree Westminster couldn't give a damn about NI. The tactic of making NI a "failed statelet" is ill advised. They have a great University in Belfast, encourage spin out companies etc. Make an UI an attractive proposition for the Republic. Unlike Scotland unification requires two referendums to agree.

jh79 wrote: »

I think it boiled down to the economy if memory serves me right.

I was listening to Future Proof recently and they have a booming pharma industry and the future looks good for them in terms of self sufficiency .

Unfortunately for NI they have Murphy.

There were promises made by Cameron re: EU and devolution. None were fulfilled.
The economy featured throughout the campaign.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When Cameron, Brown and I believe Northern Irish Unionists rushed to promise Scots the sun moon and stars to remain, the polls changed. It was neck and neck going into the referendum.

Will they get conned similarly again? I doubt it.

I think it boiled down to the economy if memory serves me right.

I was listening to Future Proof recently and they have a booming pharma industry and the future looks good for them in terms of self sufficiency .

Unfortunately for NI they have Murphy.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do you have the self awareness to realise that in reaching out to downcow for support, you spent most of that post doing what you criticise SF for...'insulting others'?

What are you talking about?

jh79 wrote: »

What were the opinion polls like prior to the actual vote? From memory were people not surprised with the actual outcome?

When Cameron, Brown and I believe Northern Irish Unionists rushed to promise Scots the sun moon and stars to remain, the polls changed. It was neck and neck going into the referendum.

Will they get conned similarly again? I doubt it.

Shefwedfan wrote: »

You will find most of the people on here dont live in ther North, have never lived in the North and have no idea what they are talking about.

Then you have some who seem to be stuck in the 60 when all they are interested in is religion. Oh if we get a united ireland then screw the Unionists.

This is the sort of attitude we seen which led to the troubles. Thankful the majority of people in Rep and Northern Ireland have a lot more sense.

They can call people all sorts of names to try to make their point seem more qualified but in reality they can't answer the basic. It is standard SF and SF supporters from what I can see, all talk with nothing to back it up. What else could you expect from a party that has such poor leadership.

If they went into a conference now, after the first 2 minutes SF would not be able to answer questions so like on here they would try to start insulting people. Its the same childish politics which shut down the North for 3 years. Same childish politics that has seen SF who "won" the election end up joining with no other party.

Do you have the self awareness to realise that in reaching out to downcow for support, you spent most of that post doing what you criticise SF for...'insulting others'?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And it will stay that way for ever? Who knew.

What were the opinion polls like prior to the actual vote? From memory were people not surprised with the actual outcome?

downcow wrote: »

There is very little change in voting patterns, and what changes there are, appear to be around policies other than the maintenance of the UK.
Here's the best grass I can find. If you wanted to use the small changes to say something about desire for a united island, then you need to bear in mind that 75% of Alliance voters have said they want to remain in the UK - they are been called others in most data.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/13/northern-ireland-ge2019-results-roundup/

The most obvious change would be electoral representatives from the main Unionist parties no longer returning a majority in both the Westminster and NI Assembly elections.

Significantly 3 out of the 4 Belfast constituencies in the recent Westminster election were won by Nationalist parties with the DUP narrowly holding on in the previoisly safe East Belfast constituency.

If the recent voting patterns continue in future elections, the traditional main Unionist parties will have a tough time on their hands to retain their seats from the Alliance party in constituencies such East Belfast, East Antrim, Lagan Valley, Strangford. They have already lost to Allience in North Down, another previously safe Unionist seat.

I understand what you are saying about Alliance voters likely to be pro Union but the party is also pro EU and I believe the party have previously said they were at least willing to engage in discussion around the issue of Irish unity.

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Hate to tell you the Scottish took a vote and voted to stay. You seem to disregards actual votes for polls. Polls don't count. Official votes do

And it will stay that way for ever? Who knew.

eire4

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Hate to tell you the Scottish took a vote and voted to stay. You seem to disregards actual votes for polls. Polls don't count. Official votes do

Yes votes do matter but a lot of the influence on that vote was predicated on remaining part of the EU. Now that is gone circumstances have substantially changed and there are significant calls for a new referendum as a result of the current fact that the UK is no longer part of the EU. It really seems to be but a matter of time. I think if as seems likely there is no trade deal between the EU and UK come January 1 that will likely see the push for a new Scottish independence referendum intensified.

downcow wrote: »

Yeah, spot on. Quite a few here would like to wish us away. Things are fairly settled at the minute. We have very tight equality laws - in fact I'm not sure anywhere else in the world has this tight equality laws.
None of us can predict the future, but it is very naïve to think that almost 1 million Unionists, who have a very strong sense of belonging, community, loyalty, unity, etc. will be comfortable and quiet if this United island fantasy project were ever to materialise. I think you will have very noisy neighbours

You will find most of the people on here dont live in ther North, have never lived in the North and have no idea what they are talking about.

Then you have some who seem to be stuck in the 60 when all they are interested in is religion. Oh if we get a united ireland then screw the Unionists.

This is the sort of attitude we seen which led to the troubles. Thankful the majority of people in Rep and Northern Ireland have a lot more sense.

They can call people all sorts of names to try to make their point seem more qualified but in reality they can't answer the basic. It is standard SF and SF supporters from what I can see, all talk with nothing to back it up. What else could you expect from a party that has such poor leadership.

If they went into a conference now, after the first 2 minutes SF would not be able to answer questions so like on here they would try to start insulting people. Its the same childish politics which shut down the North for 3 years. Same childish politics that has seen SF who "won" the election end up joining with no other party.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Outside influences continuing to point in one direction - the breakup of the UK.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1269184848926781440

Hate to tell you the Scottish took a vote and voted to stay. You seem to disregards actual votes for polls. Polls don't count. Official votes do

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Wish I knew what that was all about.

*sigh*

the DUP cowering behind the principle of consent

The principle of consent is a central tenet of Good Friday Agreement and in general terms it means that both communities must consent to any changes in their circumstances.

being gently floated away from Britain

This refers to the EU Withdrawal Agreement that Unionists consider a betrayal and detaching of them from Britain/UK

in an Agreement they tried to destroy

The DUP tried to destroy the GFA and were eventually forced to accept it.

Unionists will benefit from the rigorous equality laws that were used to emasculate the rotten Orange statelet you once ruled

Anti-Catholic sectarianism was rife in the North so a lot of rigorous anti-discrimination laws were introduced to stop it, those laws washed the orange out of the institutions and places of employment.

When there is a UI the GFA will become the de-facto constitution for Unionist equality as a minority.

In a future United Ireland I envision a semi-autonomous region in the north east of Ireland where the GFA and anti-discrimination laws become a sort of constitution that will protect the Unionist minority.

You can **** on your own doorstep all you want but you'll not be forcing the British state to come back and rescue you from yourselves.

After a pro-United Ireland vote happens it's over for Unionist/British rule in Ireland. Any Unionist violence will only be self-harming and Britain will not be coming to rescue Unionists from themselves.

Brendan Bendar

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Indeed, it was interesting to see the DUP cowering behind the principle of consent in an Agreement they tried to destroy when they were being gently floated away from Britain. Unionists will benefit from the rigorous equality laws that were used to emasculate the rotten Orange statelet you once ruled when the place is being run by non-unionists. When there is a UI the GFA will become the de-facto constitution for Unionist equality as a minority.

You can shit on your own doorstep all you want but you'll not be forcing the British state to come back and rescue you from yourselves.

Wish I knew what that was all about.

downcow wrote: »

We have very tight equality laws - in fact I'm not sure anywhere else in the world has this tight equality laws.

Indeed, it was interesting to see the DUP cowering behind the principle of consent in an Agreement they tried to destroy when they were being gently floated away from Britain. Unionists will benefit from the rigorous equality laws that were used to emasculate the rotten Orange statelet you once ruled when the place is being run by non-unionists. When there is a UI the GFA will become the de-facto constitution for Unionist equality as a minority.

I think you will have very noisy neighbours

You can shit on your own doorstep all you want but you'll not be forcing the British state to come back and rescue you from yourselves.

I surprised myself when I looked at those stats about how healthy the UK vote is.

This is just anecdotal, but I know numerous SDLP and Sinn Fein voters locally for whom there is zero chance that they will vote for a united Ireland in a poll. I cannot think of one single Unionist I know who will not vote to maintain the UK.

So I still maintain that the large poll that the Belfast Telegraph reported fairly recently which put the figure of those who would support a united Ireland at approximately 25%, as fairly accurate if not a little inflated - as I do think there are many who will answer the question romantically but when they are in the polling station will use their heads

Where are the lost SF and SDLP votes going, Independents and PBP?

downcow wrote: »

There is very little change in voting patterns, and what changes there are, appear to be around policies other than the maintenance of the UK.
Here's the best grass I can find. If you wanted to use the small changes to say something about desire for a united island, then you need to bear in mind that 75% of Alliance voters have said they want to remain in the UK - they are been called others in most data.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/13/northern-ireland-ge2019-results-roundup/

I have just looked again at the graph and it is interesting to note percentage vote at starting point 2010 and most recent election 2019
these are approximately just looking at the graph:
DUP up 6%
Sinn Fein down 3%
UUP down 3%
Alliance up 10%
SDLP down 2%

Given that 75% of Alliance party voters support remaining in the United Kingdom, those must be very depressing trends for anyone wanting this landmass united

mehico wrote: »

I'm not disregarding your survey but I was referring to voting trends in elections.

There is very little change in voting patterns, and what changes there are, appear to be around policies other than the maintenance of the UK.
Here's the best grass I can find. If you wanted to use the small changes to say something about desire for a united island, then you need to bear in mind that 75% of Alliance voters have said they want to remain in the UK - they are been called others in most data.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/13/northern-ireland-ge2019-results-roundup/

Outside influences continuing to point in one direction - the breakup of the UK.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1269184848926781440

BloodyBill wrote: »

Catholic votes have changed too. The last serious survey showed 60% of the people in Northern Ireland would vote to remain in the UK.

I'm not disregarding your survey but I was referring to voting trends in elections.

BonnieSituation

Yeah_Right wrote: »

You really seem to like telling people what they have and haven't read and whether they're allowed to take part in the discussion. I guess it's the nationalist way, only discuss a UI if you think it should happen. If anyone has any doubts about it, then you want them to stay silent. Unfortunately that's not how it works here.

And the rest of my post said what? Awful habit you have.

Do you know the context? Did you read the previous contributions by Shef? How could I have been out of order when the person in question made a sweeping statement, much like you are now.

Where's the substantive debate to be had, when there's so many bad faith actors?

If the Partitionist grouping have the status quo that they seek why must they argue in such bad faith? It seems that the tenuous grasp to the status quo is not really what they want. They want to shut down proper debate with those of us who want to see our country reunited. Apparently that's not a legitimate aim and it must be snuffed out at every opportunity with arguments over definitions, a particular political party, and now with someone who solely posts about how someone posts.

What hope is there of a decent discussion in that case.