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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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today's GFS run ends with some nice high pressure and relatively warm air over us. After a possibly unsettled and cool spell around Easter, things are looking good as we head towards the middle of April.

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Gonzo

yep latest updates are very dissapointing and the wet signals are coming back too. Monday to possibly Wednesday next week look decent then downhill from there with a more unsettled and Atlantic flavour. Last 10 days of May could turn out to be fairly unsettled at times with average temperatures or possibly at little below at times.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

yep latest updates are very dissapointing and the wet signals are coming back too. Monday to possibly Wednesday next week look decent then downhill from there with a more unsettled and Atlantic flavour. Last 10 days of May could turn out to be fairly unsettled at times with average temperatures or possibly at little below at times.

12z GFS similar to 06z but even more unsettled for last week of May with Greenland blocking.

nacho libre

Maybe the GFS has changed since the upgrade but it used to be far too progressive when modelling the end of blocks and a pattern change. With this in mind lets see if the UKMO and ECM start to back it for a prolonged period of unsettled weather rather than a temporary unsettled spell from Thursday

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

Maybe the GFS has changed since the upgrade but it used to be far too progressive when modelling the end of blocks and a pattern change. With this in mind lets see if the UKMO and ECM start to back it for a prolonged period of unsettled weather rather than a temporary unsettled spell from Thursday

a similar theme happened about 3 weeks ago. I remember the GFS was showing a very unsettled scene from 1st of May up to the 14th of May which was the extended range of GFS, we got one very poor day on the 1st of May and the following day the ensembles had all changed back to a much dryer solution. Hopefully the same will happen this time around.

I'm sure most of us won't mind a few unsettled days from Thursday once we go back to fine and settled conditions next week, but an unending onslaught of low pressures and cool windy conditions is not something we want to see heading into the start of summer! I hope the GFS has it wrong and this will only be a blip.

Edit: just checked the most recent update to the GFS and it is more similar to the ECM, showing an improving situation next week and some nice settled conditions. However I wouldn't get too excited as this is one of many runs, most recent ones have been unsettled. Again fingers crossed this is only a 3 to 4 day blip with some welcome rain and then back to dryer and warmer conditions.

[Deleted User]

Gonzo wrote: »

a similar theme happened about 3 weeks ago. I remember the GFS was showing a very unsettled scene from 1st of May up to the 14th of May which was the extended range of GFS, we got one very poor day on the 1st of May and the following day the ensembles had all changed back to a much dryer solution. Hopefully the same will happen this time around.

I'm sure most of us won't mind a few unsettled days from Thursday once we go back to fine and settled conditions next week, but an unending onslaught of low pressures and cool windy conditions is not something we want to see heading into the start of summer! I hope the GFS has it wrong and this will only be a blip.

Edit: just checked the most recent update to the GFS and it is more similar to the ECM, showing an improving situation next week and some nice settled conditions. However I wouldn't get too excited as this is one of many runs, most recent ones have been unsettled. Again fingers crossed this is only a 3 to 4 day blip with some welcome rain and then back to dryer and warmer conditions.

Is there anything to the suggestion that the reason the models have been so inaccurate in the medium term recently has been down to the absence of data from air traffic, especially over the Atlantic. In the absence of the data the models over time time do to the mean - an active Atlantic. It will eventually return to an active Atlantic pattern, but is interesting nonetheless

Neddyusa

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Is there anything to the suggestion that the reason the models have been so inaccurate in the medium term recently has been down to the absence of data from air traffic, especially over the Atlantic. In the absence of the data the models over time time do to the mean - an active Atlantic. It will eventually return to an active Atlantic pattern, but is interesting nonetheless

I don't know the answer to your question. But it's a very logical explanation for why weather models might be more progressive right now, than they normally would be in this type of set-up.

Gonzo

GFS finally backing off the idea of a pattern change to normal service over the next few weeks. We still have the unsettled period this week from late Thursday to Sunday, but once that's out of the way, we appear to be heading back to a generally warm and settled scene, the GFS falling in line more with the ECM.

The ensembles are drying out too, looks like we wont be seeing alot of rain next week.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-05-18&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-05-18&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

After this weekends cooler period, temperatures lift up again from Monday with high teens to low twenties for much of the following week. We may have a few interruptions with low pressures flirting with Ireland, but overall the scene looks fairly settled.

The ECM is still the warmer outlook with less in the way of low pressures flirting with us.

FVP3

The attitude here is much more pessimstic than netweather, where they are convinced the good times are here to stay. Well after the blip this week.

Gonzo

FVP3 wrote: »

The attitude here is much more pessimstic than netweather, where they are convinced the good times are here to stay. Well after the blip this week.

probably to do with the fact that that most of England and Wales has a better chance of staying warmer and dryer than we do. They won't be nearly as impacted by this weekends low pressure compared to us. They generally had a hotter and dryer July and a much better August than us last year too. In these setup's Ireland is often on the cooler and more unsettled side as the Atlantic continues to flirt with us every few days while they escape most of that influence unless the Atlantic makes proper inroads across north-western Europe in general.

compsys

Gonzo wrote: »

probably to do with the fact that that most of England and Wales has a better chance of staying warmer and dryer than we do. They won't be nearly as impacted by this weekends low pressure compared to us. They generally had a hotter and dryer July and a much better August than us last year too. In these setup's Ireland is often on the cooler and more unsettled side as the Atlantic continues to flirt with us every few days while they escape most of that influence unless the Atlantic makes proper inroads across north-western Europe in general.

Absolutely. Every year one needs to remember that England, particularly the south east, simply does not have the same climate as Ireland. Besides London is almost 500km away from Dublin. That's a big distance. It's about the same distance from San Fran to Las Vegas - and no one expects those two cities to get the same weather. It's like we're so obsessed with the UK that we expect we should also get their weather.

Gonzo

compsys wrote: »

Absolutely. Every year one needs to remember that England, particularly the south east, simply does not have the same climate as Ireland. Besides London is almost 500km away from Dublin. That's a big distance. It's about the same distance from San Fran to Las Vegas - and no one expects those two cities to get the same weather. It's like we're so obsessed with the UK that we expect we should also get their weather.

Yep, most people think Ireland and England have the same climate when in fact they can be worlds apart, especially in winter and summer. During the summer, the Irish sea and the Scottish border is quite often the dividing line between warm, potentially hot and sunny conditions on one side and cool, often damp and cloudy conditions on the other side. We are closer to Scotland in terms of summer weather and South-eastern half of England is more similar to northern France.

Friday's chart shows this perfectly, Ireland and Scotland usually have a band of cloud or rain very close, while England stays closer to HP for longer. Quite often these bands of cloud or rain will push through Ireland and on up to Scotland while brushing past western wales and north-west England. The low pressures some times make it across to central and southeastern England but usually in a much weakened form with far less wind and rain.

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

The low pressures some times make it across to central and southeastern England but usually in a much weakened form with far less wind and rain.

But brings more thunder there also. Summer storms in the southeastern half of England are on an entirety different level to what we usually see here.

Gonzo

Will need to stock up on sun-cream, ice cream and cold drinks if tonight's GFS can be believed. Plenty of dry and warm weather on the way, high teens to low twenties for many of us over the next week and possibly extending into June as well.

Tonights ensembles show a very dry scene and a warming trend from Sunday as high pressure begins to dominate.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2020-05-22&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2020-05-22&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

High pressure extends its influence from Sunday and persists all week, by next Thursday it is right over us.

Staying dry and relatively warm throughout next weekend, high teens to low twenties.

High pressure as far as FI goes right up to 7th of June, there is a chance low pressure could bring cooler and more unsettled weather from Scandinavia but this appears to only really affect the UK and pushed into central Europe leaving Ireland on the warmer and more settled side for once.

For the end of May and beginning to June you couldn't ask for better.

ECM also brings plenty of settled and relatively warm conditions

Fingers crossed these runs work out, looks like after we are finished with the annoying windy and unsettled blip, the Atlantic is packing it's bags for possibly a couple of weeks.

pp_me

Gonzo wrote: »

Will need to stock up on sun-cream, ice cream and cold drinks if tonight's GFS can be believed. Plenty of dry and warm weather on the way, high teens to low twenties for many of us over the next week and possibly extending into June as well.

Just in time for the leaving cer.... Oh.

Meteorite58

ECM still keeping us on the warmer side out to +240 hrs

tanko

How is early next week looking now?

Meteorite58

tanko wrote: »

How is early next week looking now?

ECM remaining warm and dry, GFS cooler and some rain Mon and Tues next by way of a shallow area of LP , GFS was showing wet over the weekend but has pulled back on this now. ECM not developing this area of LP over us. UKMO keeping it out as well.

Two against one, would lean towards the ECM and UKMO so I would think better chance of it remaining mostly dry and warm. Signs of cooler weather towards the weekend of the 12th June from the ECM but GFS showing influence of HP.

tanko

In their 10 day forecast today the BBC Met office are predicting a change to cooler and more unsettled conditions moving in from the Atlantic for Ireland on Tuesday/Wednesday next week and moving into Britain a day or two after that.

mahoney_j

tanko wrote: »

In their 10 day forecast today the BBC Met office are predicting a change to cooler and more unsettled conditions moving in from the Atlantic for Ireland on Tuesday/Wednesday next week and moving into Britain a day or two after that.

Fingers crossed ðŸ€ž

Gonzo

tanko wrote: »

In their 10 day forecast today the BBC Met office are predicting a change to cooler and more unsettled conditions moving in from the Atlantic for Ireland on Tuesday/Wednesday next week and moving into Britain a day or two after that.

It does appear that we will be going through quite a cooldown from mid week next week with a cold northerly or north-easterly. This still has to be nailed down how far west it will get. Here is hoping that this gets shifted more to our east and we stay on the warmer side with the Azores high ridge still in play.

If this comes off it would lower the temperatures down to low teens, maybe mid teens and nights would certainly be chilly.

a risk of a slight ground frost.

This would also bring showers, particularly to northern and eastern areas and it would feel unseasonably cold.

ECM also going for it but it keeps the bulk of the cold and unsettled conditions more over the UK, Ireland would still be a good deal cooler than it is now.

Gonzo

still a good deal of uncertainty about next week's cool spell. It does look like we'll swing winds into the north from mid week next week, however High Pressure to the west of Ireland could dampen down any rain or shower activity, if this northerly takes more of a direct hit with the Netherlands and Germany, then we could stay dry throughout the cool spell. If the northerly takes a direct hit with the UK and possibly Ireland then we would be under a more unsettled scene with showers or longer spells of rain with very cool temperatures.

the models then want to revert back to high pressure and warmth once this spell is over with a high pressure fest lasting into July. IF next week's cold plunge from the north keeps us on the dryer side of things, there is a chance June could end up being an incredibly dry month if high pressure rebuilds after next week. Certainly close model watching in the weeks to come.

Slashermcguirk

That would be amazing if June turned out a cracker too. That being said my garden is really dried out. The grass has gone yellow and I am having to water the plants every day. It has been ridiculously dry since mid March

Gonzo wrote: »

still a good deal of uncertainty about next week's cool spell. It does look like we'll swing winds into the north from mid week next week, however High Pressure to the west of Ireland could dampen down any rain or shower activity, if this northerly takes more of a direct hit with the Netherlands and Germany, then we could stay dry throughout the cool spell. If the northerly takes a direct hit with the UK and possibly Ireland then we would be under a more unsettled scene with showers or longer spells of rain with very cool temperatures.

the models then want to revert back to high pressure and warmth once this spell is over with a high pressure fest lasting into July. IF next week's cold plunge from the north keeps us on the dryer side of things, there is a chance June could end up being an incredibly dry month if high pressure rebuilds after next week. Certainly close model watching in the weeks to come.

Gonzo

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

That would be amazing if June turned out a cracker too. That being said my garden is really dried out. The grass has gone yellow and I am having to water the plants every day. It has been ridiculously dry since mid March

June still has a fair deal of uncertainty. Even from Tuesday there is uncertainty how much will the northerly blast affect us, for how long, and will it bring any rain. One thing is certain, the Atlantic/normal service is a long way off, it's nowhere to be seen on any of the models I've looked at, not even at the end of FI.

The Azores high looks set to set up shop to our west for the next 2 weeks and we will have some chilly northerlies to contend with. Any rainfall over the next 2 weeks looks very hit or miss. Our best chance of rain in the short term future seems to be this Wednesday when temperatures take a tumble and the northerly get's going. Looks reasonably dry again after Wednesday.

It appears we will have 4 cool days from this Wednesday and then temperatures will start to recover after next weekend. There is only trace amounts of rainfall from the GFS Operational as we go back to generally milder conditions from the 9th of June.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2020-05-30&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2020-05-30&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

Much cooler air digs in from Wednesday

Northern and eastern coasts will feel particularly chilly and there may be a few showers, this appears to be the only real rainfall between now and the 14th of June if the GFS is correct. Some areas may get no rain at all over the next 2 weeks.

By Thursday week we are back to very warm conditions.

We finish on the 15th of June with another NE'ly plunge.

The first 2 weeks of June look quite chilly at times with some warmer interludes and mostly dry.

Longer range models want to bring a warmer and dry second half of June, all that could change quickly, but for now June is looking fairly dry. It is unlikely this June will be anywhere near as chilly overall as June last year and it is certainly looking much dryer.

Gonzo

We look on course for a 7 to 10 day cool spell with northerlies followed by some average temperatures as we lose the northerly. Tonights GFS gets us to the 16th of June where we are seeing the start of a possible warming trend. We've heard a good deal about a warmer second of June recently, let's see if it start's to verify.

9th of June we start to lose the cool northerlies, the azores ridge is moving in towards us once again and temperatures start to recover.

Friday 12th of June see's the ridge moving over us, extending all the way from the mid Atlantic and begins to link up with Nordic regions. At this point there is alot of heat building up throughout Europe just to the east of the UK.

We finish on Tuesday 16th of June with the winds swinging into a gentle easterly flow off a very hot continent. The ridge stretches all the way from the mid Atlantic, over us and into Scandinavia, looks very like June 2018. By this stage we are dragging in some very warm air over Ireland.

This is a long way out, but if this was to verify it would easily get us to 27 or 28C, the GFS tends to undercook temperatures in the summer by several degrees. Hopefully this warm trend into the second half of June stays with us.

Seeing as most of us probably won't make it to southern Europe this June or July, it would be nice to have a few decent hot and settled weeks if we're going to be spending Summer in Ireland.

sryanbruen

There is definitely a trend for wetter conditions in the next 2 weeks but also a trend for quite a rise in temperatures again though initially slow recovery at first following this weekend's northerly. Warm and wet... wonder what that could mean :cool:

Latest ECM shows most of the rain over the UK with Ireland dodging a lot of it. These accumulated precipitation charts are over the top a lot of the time, particularly those of the GFS, and can usually shave off a good bit.

Personal bias aside, a good downpour or two wouldn't go amiss or be bad!

Gonzo

ECM today has had a serious reverse on yesterdays very unsettled outlook. It is now trending warmer and dryer bringing the Azores ridge back into play.

Temperatures start recovering from as early as this Monday.

Next Wednesday the Azores ridge moves closer to Ireland, by this stage we would have average temperatures in the mid to high teens.

We finish on Friday with the ridge closer still, warm air to our west,north and to our east with some instability just to our south.

Interesting times ahead it has to be said.

GFS also trending much warmer into the second week of June with possibly an unstable mix, will have a look at the GFS again later tonight when it updates.

Gonzo

The weather outlook over the next two weeks is proving to be very tricky to determine. We have quite an unusual pattern with the azores high out to our west and the jetstream diving southwards across North-west Europe.

We have entered a fairly cool and unsettled spell but it has to be said that Ireland is benefiting from a dryer scene overall compared to the UK as we are closer to that ridge.

There is some disagreement in the models to how long this cool and unsettled spell will go on for as we have high pressure just to our west and high pressure will develop over Scandinavia. The low pressures that are heading north to south over us appear to be not moving very far and swirl around the UK, low countries and impacting Ireland ever so slightly. What we want is the Azores to move back in and for it to link up with the high over Scandinavia which would prevent the low pressures from staying in our vicinity, keeping the jet stream up over Iceland.

Last nights GFS run was a very cool and rather unsettled picture with lows drifting one by one through the UK and impacting Ireland with the odd dry and settled day in between and no real warmth. This operational GFS run was not that well supported with many of the other GFS members bringing us back into warm and settled conditions for the middle part of the month.

This mornings GFS is similar. What is certain is the cool spell up to mid week next week with this Saturday being particularly cold. From mid week next week is when most of the members want to bring back warm and relatively settled conditions.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-06-04&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-06-04&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

The thick green line is the operational GFS and as you can see from this graph, it keeps us relatively cool or close to normal temperatures throughout the next 2 weeks. It is going for another cold spell in the middle of the month but it is not well supported. There are some very warm runs between the 14th and 19th of June, many of these would get us into the mid 20s, possibly even high 20s. This is also the wettest looking period which could suggest instability with a combination of showers and high temperatures.

The ECM is similar to the GFS in that it keeps these lows drifting down over us every few days with some warmish and settled days in between.

The GEM is not a model I rely upon but it is very different to the GFS and ECM with next week's weather. It gets us out of this cool spell very swiftly and the Azores builds right over us from Wednesday and next week turns very warm with that model. We end up with +13 uppers over Ireland by next weekend vs the rather unsettled and cooler GFS.

As much as I would like the GEM to be right, I have more faith in both the GFS and ECM. It is not easy to answer what the weather will be like in a weeks time. There is no point putting much thought into the weather for the second half of June as I think everything is possible. We could see a continuation of the current rather cool and unsettled theme from the north or we could potentially enter a major warm spell. It is also possible we could have a rather warm but unsettled and thundery spell mid month. Currently not seeing much support for the Atlantic to barge back in but I am hoping the warm and dry spells will win out for the second half of June. Only time will tell, need more agreement within the models to see where we are going from next Tuesday or Wednesday.

hatrickpatrick

All I'm going to say at this point is this: If this year again treats us to a negative NAO in the summer after trolling us all Winter, I'll be writing a strongly worded letter.

We really are into a period of model blindness though. It's been a while since I remember FI charts flip flopping to the extreme extent they've been doing so for the last couple of days. All of this uncertainty seems to be driven by a meandering jet stream which won't make up its mind on what it wants to do - any particular reason for it to be so indecisive at the moment?

Wine Goddess

Thanks Gonzo for taking the time to post your informed point of view on the weather in the next few weeks, it's much appreciated. Particularly given that a lot of us are stuck at home, the weather has taken on even more importance than usual!!! That, food and alcohol.. although I couldn't possibly comment on the latter. Laughing emoji X 3

Gonzo

just one more update for now. The GFS is updated again and we are beginning to lose the unsettled signal and a definite warming trend. From as early as Monday we will see temperatures beginning to lift up and very little in the way of rainfall and possibly temperatures taking off again from next Friday.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-06-04&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-06-04&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

The ECM is also turning on the heat for next weekend. GEM continues with it's high pressure and very warm uppers second half of next week. It's beginning to look like this unsettled spell could run out of steam much sooner than we thought, but would need to look at what the models are showing over this weekend to be more confident, this could all look very different again by the morning.