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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Ozark707

pearcider wrote: »

In just the last week we have jumped to 2,635 which marks a dramatic acceleration in the rental supply available in Dublin. We will have to wait and see whether this new rate holds into the summer.

Hopefully these stats get updated tomorrow (he filters out STL's from his numbers).

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

Hubertj

Ozark707 wrote: »

Hopefully these stats get updated tomorrow (he filters out STL's from his numbers).

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

Why are 3 bed apartments more expensive than 3 bed houses?

AlmightyCushion

Hubertj wrote: »

Why are 3 bed apartments more expensive than 3 bed houses?

Probably more likely to be in a more central location and more likely to be closer to public transport.

Ozark707

June figures now updated, supply of apts is up ~24% MoM & ~63% since mid March.

Hubertj

Ozark707 wrote: »

June figures now updated, supply of apts is up ~24% MoM & ~63% since mid March.

Something else to factor in is that the INIS isn’t processing visas at present. Added to that no flights means people cant relocate to Ireland to take up positions. That will likely take months to resolve. We have 55 people waiting On visas + flights where i work. Pain in the hole.

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

Why are 3 bed apartments more expensive than 3 bed houses?

3 bed apts are often penthouses as well

The_Conductor

Cyrus wrote: »

3 bed apts are often penthouses as well

Location is often the bigger factor.
Apartments tend to be built in high density high demand areas.
Houses- tend to be less desirable/more remote areas that require commutes etc.
Particularly for younger people- the lack of a commute may be something they are willing to pay extra for.
Also- a lot of non-nationals just don't see the reason for getting a house- which requires maintenance etc- over an apartment that has everything included and doesn't have a garden. Some people will pay extra for *not* having a garden- ironically enough.

lomb

I fully expect prices to fall here. Banks will remove half the credit from the market due to uncertain incomes. It will take 2 years to bottom out. They will fall a lot more in overheated markets like Vancouver and California.
People don't realise how much even 300k is. If you owned a spar shop you'd have to sell 3 million packs of biscuits to pay for it , pay the overheads and the income tax. The sheer logistics of that and work is hidden in the telephone number prices. Over on the other thread of not paying mortgage I worked out that the Flood guy took on a 1.2 million mortgage over 35 years. Thats serving something like 200000 meals in his restaurant. Was always going to come unstuck given the vagaries of the market

Mic 1972

Ozark707 wrote: »

June figures now updated, supply of apts is up ~24% MoM & ~63% since mid March.

can you share link please?

update: no worries, i found it, cheers!

GocRh

Hubertj wrote: »

Something else to factor in is that the INIS isn’t processing visas at present. Added to that no flights means people cant relocate to Ireland to take up positions. That will likely take months to resolve. We have 55 people waiting On visas + flights where i work. Pain in the hole.

It will be interesting to see the impact COVID will have on IT professionals and high skilled workers. I know of a few companies that have stopped hiring (my employer did) or are now revisiting their hiring projections.

I still expect Ireland to remain attractive to engineers from developing countries (India, Latin America) but I do wonder if eastern Europeans and Americans in particular will take the chance of moving to a foreign country before there's a vaccine.

IT and Finance expats prefer living in a central location (D2, D4) which also happens to be where there's a large stock of Airbnb properties that will likely go to the long term rental market. Increase in supply with reduction in demand, prices can only go one direction in a functional market - down.

Cuddlesworth

The_Conductor wrote: »

They can do as an exceptional basis under the exceptional umbrella- but will insist on several years records and are considerably more likely to enter such an agreement for a first time buyer than a subsequent buyer. Its highly irregular- and you'd be well advised to assume you were not being granted such an exception.

We were first time buyers and we were also offered exceptions due to LTV, we applied for a loan that was roughly 4 times base income.

I had additional earnings(within a single source of employment) being double my wages over that timeframe, year on year for 3 years of records supplied. They didn't employ a straight 3.5 modifier to it though, it seemed like they applied roughly half that figure.

Its been over 2 years but it was sort of like my base income+(additional payments/2)+partners base income *3.5 = loan offer. Or somewhere around that figure. Then we were offered exceptions on top of that figure.

We ended up going under 3.5 in the end so I kept none of the loan offers.

Experience_day

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

We were first time buyers and we were also offered exceptions due to LTV, we applied for a loan that was roughly 4 times base income.

I had additional earnings(within a single source of employment) being double my wages over that timeframe, year on year for 3 years of records supplied. They didn't employ a straight 3.5 modifier to it though, it seemed like they applied roughly half that figure.

Its been over 2 years but it was sort of like my base income+(additional payments/2)+partners base income *3.5 = loan offer. Or somewhere around that figure. Then we were offered exceptions on top of that figure.

We ended up going under 3.5 in the end so I kept none of the loan offers.

Interesting thanks for sharing

SozBbz

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

We were first time buyers and we were also offered exceptions due to LTV, we applied for a loan that was roughly 4 times base income.

I had additional earnings(within a single source of employment) being double my wages over that timeframe, year on year for 3 years of records supplied. They didn't employ a straight 3.5 modifier to it though, it seemed like they applied roughly half that figure.

Its been over 2 years but it was sort of like my base income+(additional payments/2)+partners base income *3.5 = loan offer. Or somewhere around that figure. Then we were offered exceptions on top of that figure.

We ended up going under 3.5 in the end so I kept none of the loan offers.

So you work in sales?

fergiesfolly

Does anyone think that this will have an impact on property prices..
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/property-sales-to-plummet-by-up-to-50-due-to-covid-19-crisis-1002982.html

cnocbui

Seems to paint a picture that points at prices rising due to lack of supply.

TheSheriff

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Does anyone think that this will have an impact on property prices..
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/property-sales-to-plummet-by-up-to-50-due-to-covid-19-crisis-1002982.html

Don't really think it tells us anything to be honest.

Its basically saying transactions will be down 40% -50% which is quite logical when the market has been effectively closed for months during what I imagine is a usually busy time of year (Jan - exemptions, summer - prime buying season). And once we are back, viewings will need to abide by social distancing norms leading to reduced numbers per viewing.

Lots of click-bait articles floating around unfortunately, very little fact based articles.

Mon1239

Difficult to find an article that remains neutral on the entire situation and gives some valuable points that might help a buyer make an informed decision. I found this article to be the exception.

Lots of interesting points from both perspectives. Buyer and seller.

https://www.owenreilly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Irish-Times-ad-14.05.20.pdf

Padre_Pio

Mon1239 wrote: »

Difficult to find an article that remains neutral on the entire situation and gives some valuable points that might help a buyer make an informed decision. I found this article to be the exception.

Lots of interesting points from both perspectives. Buyer and seller.

https://www.owenreilly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Irish-Times-ad-14.05.20.pdf

It reiterates the points a lot of posters here are making.

No one can tell you when is the best time to buy. If we were looking at a thread from 2008-2012 I guarantee no one predicted the bottom of the market.

I do believe that people should take stock of their situation and be calm and rational. Seems people were rushing into sales thinking the bank would pull their mortgage or they would be put on COVID payment.
Others were pulling out of sales or asking for 20% discounts only to get rejected.

Hubertj

Padre_Pio wrote: »

It reiterates the points a lot of posters here are making.

No one can tell you when is the best time to buy. If we were looking at a thread from 2008-2012 I guarantee no one predicted the bottom of the market.

I do believe that people should take stock of their situation and be calm and rational. Seems people were rushing into sales thinking the bank would pull their mortgage or they would be put on COVID payment.
Others were pulling out of sales or asking for 20% discounts only to get rejected.

If someone took advice from some of the “experts” in here you would never purchase a house in Ireland.

Rock77

Hubertj wrote: »

If someone took advice from some of the “experts” in here you would never purchase a house in Ireland.

We get it Hubertj. You don’t think people should take advice from posters on this forum. You have said multiple times ‘if you’re considering buying and you’re in here looking for advice then don’t buy’

Everyone in here knows your opinion on this, it would be nice if we weren’t reminded of it so often though..

Roberto_gas

This thread is in line with Stock Markets ! Detached from Reality !

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

If someone took advice from some of the “experts” in here you would never purchase a house in Ireland.

No-one in here is allowed offer professional advice- any discussion here is one person's opinions or experiences- in comparison to another person's (or group of people).

We're all different and we all have differences of opinions- it would be incredibly boring if we were all singing off the same hymn sheet. However- by analyzing opinions or thoughts which run counter to our own, we get a better appreciation of where other people are coming from- and it may give us a chance to hone our own thoughts and opinions.

There will always be people who will tell you that the time is wrong to buy- based on their opinions- and there will always be a counter to this- people who insist that you have to buy, whatever you can buy, ASAP, or you'll get left behind- then there are also a significant cohort of posters who will tell you that one person's circumstances cannot be readily transposed onto another person- and what is right for one person, might not be right for another.

We're in the middle of a pandemic- totally unprecedented circumstances for all of us- yet we still have the same themes repeating- albeit with slight differences in tune, such as- don't buy now, prices will fall 20-30-40% if you wait etc etc

I don't have a crystal ball- and even if I did- I wouldn't be dispensing advice such as this- because regardless of how right or wrong my predictions were- they wouldn't meet the circumstances or conditions deemed necessary by someone somewhere............

Caveat emptor.

The_Conductor

Roberto_gas wrote: »

This thread is in line with Stock Markets ! Detached from Reality !

I agree 100% with you.
The only term that describes the manner in which stock markets are performing- is the one of 'irrational exuberance'.
Its exceptionally difficult to try to justify the behaviour of stock markets- keep in mind it was only 5 short weeks ago that we had negatively priced oil being bought and sold- you literally couldn't give away the stuff.

We're in completely unprecedented waters.

cnocbui

Speaking of stock markets, I think I know part of the reason for the current, seemingly irrational behaviour. In a way it's not that dissimilar to why I don't think prices will fall by much, or for long with property.

The key is the same driver of property price increases - lack of choice and supply. The elimination of the concept of interest for funds on deposit means all associated vehicles like term deposits are dead. The other dead investment is bonds, which traditionally were a huge market. There is not much left other than property and equities for yield, so I think funds are just pouring into those, and of course they are limited in supply so competition for them has resulted in prices rising, when in other times, where there were alternative investments for funds to run to, they wouldn't have.

There are legions of retirees around the world who rely on the return from the investment of their own assets for income. In Australia, for instance. People have been allowed to manage their own superannuation funds, rather than be forced to use consultants who charge ridiculous fees that corrode their wealth. I believe the same happens in the US. I know many of these people, particularly in Australia, would have previously had significant amounts in term deposits. With the interest on such approaching zero, they have to reinvest elsewhere if they are to stand any chance of maintaining their income without being forced to eat their capital.

Combine all that with with equities which are currently at a significant discount to their long term and recent pre crash performance, and you have a perfect storm.

I think Warren Buffet and some of the other old hands who are still sitting on hundreds of billions in their expectation of a 'sane' market falling to 30% of pre-covid levels and allowing them to hoover up massive, massive bargains, have miscalculated. At least I hope so, as their greed nauseates me a bit.

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

The key is the same driver of property price increases - lack of choice and supply. The elimination of the concept of interest for funds on deposit means all associated vehicles like term deposits are dead. The other dead investment is bonds, which traditionally were a huge market. There is not much left other than property and equities for yield, so I think funds are just pouring into those, and of course they are limited in supply so competition for them has resulted in prices rising, when in other times, where there were alternative investments for funds to run to, they wouldn't have.

It's for this very reason that I would advise people to be extremely cautious.
Interest rates at near zero in booming economies is a recipe for huge asset price bubbles.

Bonds have no return because central banks are buying them up anytime their is trouble on the horizon. This reduces the element of risk from an investment that should be classed as high risk.
This further promotes high risk lending

This is not all that different to adjustable rate mortgages that started the last financial crash, the only difference being every asset class is affected

Removing risk is like getting burned not hurting. I'm fearful that there are alot of people walking around the place not realising that their *rse has melted

We could be building a bubble far greater than 08

Hubertj

Rock77 wrote: »

We get it Hubertj. You don’t think people should take advice from posters on this forum. You have said multiple times ‘if you’re considering buying and you’re in here looking for advice then don’t buy’

Everyone in here knows your opinion on this, it would be nice if we weren’t reminded of it so often though..

Why can’t I parrot on saying the same thing over and over the same way everyone else does - prices will drop 50%, prices won’t drop, its the governments fault, nobody has a clue what they are saying, etc etc?

cunnifferous

Hubertj wrote: »

Why can’t I parrot on saying the same thing over and over the same way everyone else does - prices will drop 50%, prices won’t drop, its the governments fault, nobody has a clue what they are saying, etc etc?

90% of your posts on this thread seem to sarcastic or snide comments about other people's posts while offering very little contribution of your own. .

For me it seems there is a balance of people posting different opinions on the property market. Some well reasoned, some optimistic, some outlandish. Kind of what I'd expect in a public forum. I don't think anyone expects to get professional advice here, just some anecdotes and opinions from the general public.

Rock77

Hubertj wrote: »

Why can’t I parrot on saying the same thing over and over the same way everyone else does - prices will drop 50%, prices won’t drop, its the governments fault, nobody has a clue what they are saying, etc etc?

Well you can of course.

The difference is people here are talking about the property market over and over, you are talking about people here being spoofers and sarcastically calling them ‘experts’ over and over.

Tis a tad annoying that’s all.

Hulk Hands

"spoofers", "clowns" "experts", while continuing to come back and post every single day. I'd say the largest % contributer to the thread by far despite admitting having no insight and repeatedly calling it a waste of time

[Deleted User]

cnocbui wrote: »

......
I think Warren Buffet and some of the other old hands who are still sitting on hundreds of billions in their expectation of a 'sane' market falling to 30% of pre-covid levels and allowing them to hoover up massive, massive bargains, have miscalculated. At least I hope so, as their greed nauseates me a bit.

Didn't they dive in when the market dipped 30%..