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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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ELM327

Hubertj wrote: »

its just a lazy throw away comment by someone that doesnt know what they are talking about.
If anything, this will result in jobs being reshored to Europe, Ireland, US etc. The pandemic has resulted in many MNCs identifying supply chain challenges.
Expect the likes of Apple to move some manufacturing out of China and back to US and Europe. Single source supply chains are done for many.

So I've been involved in the CBA for a return of an outsourced dept to back in house, yet I know nothing?

Graham

ELM327 wrote: »

So I've been involved in the CBA for a return of an outsourced dept to back in house, yet I know nothing?

I didn't get the impression that comment was aimed at you ELM

Hubertj

ELM327 wrote: »

So I've been involved in the CBA for a return of an outsourced dept to back in house, yet I know nothing?

the comment was not directed to you.... i was commenting on another poster who stated "I take the point but its inevitable over time that WFH will lead to outsourcing to cheaper locales as the connection between employer and employee is broken down."

Apologies for any confusion caused..

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

its just a lazy throw away comment by someone that doesnt know what they are talking about.
If anything, this will result in jobs being reshored to Europe, Ireland, US etc. The pandemic has resulted in many MNCs identifying supply chain challenges.
Expect the likes of Apple to move some manufacturing out of China and back to US and Europe. Single source supply chains are done for many.

Apple is moving some iPhone production to India, I believe. In a wonderfully prescient move, Olympus moved their whole factory from China to Vietnam starting last year and completing this year before the pandemic.

The only thing that will get the manufacture of goods back to Europe or the US are tariffs. Globalisation was seeing opposition before the pandemic and has lost a lot of more of it's shine since, so even that might happen.

Get Real

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you need to be eligible to work in ireland even if WFH for an irish compny

Whatever about likelihood of outsourcing becoming common place, that remains to be seen.

But, the previous poster was talking about outsourcing, which nobody would have to be eligible to work in Ireland.

A company could have had, as of last year, 25 day rate contractors working in offices in Dublin for approx 70k a year each/ 1.7 million a year. Plus the costs of the physical building.

It can easily award a contract to "India Systems LTD", paying 700k a year, and 25 people over in India are on 20k a piece, employees of "India Systems LTD" No need for visas or permits or that. The company also has money left for profit/running expenses.

I agree there is debate on how many years away we are from having the same standards and quality from certain graduates abroad.
Or the likelihood of the provision of services from such far flung places, replacing interactive, physical working offices.

But an issue if work permits, it is not.

cnocbui

If one were to think that EA's were low balling the valuation of a property, is there a way to get another opinion? The property price register wouldn't be applicable.

Vestiapx

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you need to be eligible to work in ireland even if WFH for an irish compny

What? Have you called a call center recently?

coolshannagh28

Hubertj wrote: »

its just a lazy throw away comment by someone that doesnt know what they are talking about.
If anything, this will result in jobs being reshored to Europe, Ireland, US etc. The pandemic has resulted in many MNCs identifying supply chain challenges.
Expect the likes of Apple to move some manufacturing out of China and back to US and Europe. Single source supply chains are done for many.

Just like your ignorant Luddite view that the inevitable will be reversed in some parallel universe you inhabit

Shivvs

What’s the opinion on the Central Bank lending rules - anybody think we may see a change in the LTI and LTV rules for 2021 if there is a slump in the market at the end of 2020?

Hubertj

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Just like your ignorant Luddite view that the inevitable will be reversed in some parallel universe you inhabit

I’ve never been called a Luddite before so ill lake it as a compliment coming from some punter on boards

OneMoreBabadee

TheSheriff wrote: »

Only 65k

That's an auction reserve price, not an asking price.
And you're essentially just buying a site, (with extra demolition/removal costs) in an estate that probably has a lot of antisocial behaviour and undesirables living within. So 65k is probably about right.

Claw Hammer

OneMoreBabadee wrote: »

That's an auction reserve price, not an asking price.
And you're essentially just buying a site, (with extra demolition/removal costs) in an estate that probably has a lot of antisocial behaviour and undesirables living within. So 65k is probably about right.

it is more than a site. New roof windows and door, a bit of paint and you are laughing.

JimmyVik

TheSheriff wrote: »

Only 65k

You should research into how it ended up in that state

c.p.w.g.w

Claw Hammer wrote: »

it is more than a site. New roof windows and door, a bit of paint and you are laughing.

Specialized equipment to remove smoke damage from brickwork, remedial work to ensure its structurally sound after a fire. It's probably just easier to knock it if your allowed to build a detached property

Claw Hammer

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Specialized equipment to remove smoke damage from brickwork, remedial work to ensure its structurally sound after a fire. It's probably just easier to knock it if your allowed to build a detached property

It would need a new planning application to do a knock and build.

OneMoreBabadee

Claw Hammer wrote: »

it is more than a site. New roof windows and door, a bit of paint and you are laughing.

+ Rewiring, plumbing, stud walls, plastering, floor/ceiling joists, staircase, etc. You don't know the extent of the fire damage. Anyway that example is not any indication of the property market in general, so I don't even know why it's being discussed on this thread.

SozBbz

OneMoreBabadee wrote: »

+ Rewiring, plumbing, stud walls, plastering, floor/ceiling joists, staircase, etc. You don't know the extent of the fire damage. Anyway that example is not any indication of the property market in general, so I don't even know why it's being discussed on this thread.

+1

Not to mention you'd need the work signed off to get insurance on it again, so a lick of paint and a new roof would hardly suffice.

And personally you'd want to be sure the other half of the semi was going to get done too. Wouldnt fancy it.

And agree, it tells us practically nothing about the health (or otherwise) of the market.

cnocbui

If I am reading it correctly, economists in the US had expected April new home purchases to decline to give a total annual fall of 21.9% with a resulting 480,000 sales.

Instead, sales in April actually rose 0.6%, implying annual sales of 623,000.

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-rise-in-april-2182761

That is some miss. There also seems to be a massive disconnect between what some influential share market pundits are forecasting and what the market is actually doing.

Mic 1972

TheSheriff wrote: »

Only 65k

You can fix the house but not the location ;-) it's one of the creepiest estates I've seen!

The_Conductor

TheSheriff wrote: »

Only 65k

Theres parts of Sarajevo that were razed, that are safer than that estate.

c.p.w.g.w

The_Conductor wrote: »

Theres parts of Sarajevo that were razed, that are safer than that estate.

Any links to news stories? This has peaked my interest

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

If I am reading it correctly, economists in the US had expected April new home purchases to decline to give a total annual fall of 21.9% with a resulting 480,000 sales.

cnocbui wrote:

Instead, sales in April actually rose 0.6%, implying annual sales of 623,000.

Had a bit more of a look at that and it appears that median price is down 8% yoy and evidence of a move away from the cities to lower priced areas outside the city

WFH effect?

The_Conductor

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Any links to news stories? This has peaked my interest

Google 'Sheephill Avenue, Corduff' with the terms

gangland,
arson,
drug dealing,
gun attack,
Gardai attacked,
Doctor's surgery ransacked,
pedophile scout leader,
rape threat to Garda's wife,
petrol bomb,
knife attack,
houses shot at,
20 Gardai needed to quell a riot,
gun battle,
mob feud..........

And thats probably just touching the tip of the iceberg.......

They like to drop the 'Corduff' part of the postal address..........

c.p.w.g.w

The_Conductor wrote: »

Google 'Sheephill Avenue, Corduff' with the terms
gangland,

arson,

drug dealing,

gun attack,

Gardai attacked,

Doctor's surgery ransacked,

pedophile scout leader,

rape threat to Garda's wife,

petrol bomb,

knife attack,

houses shot at,

20 Gardai needed to quell a riot,

gun battle,

mob feud..........

And thats probably just touching the tip of the iceberg.......

They like to drop the 'Corduff' part of the postal address..........

Jaysus seems like a complete warzone

Taylor365

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Jaysus seems like a complete warzone

Just like many other areas around Dublin

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Had a bit more of a look at that and it appears that median price is down 8% yoy and evidence of a move away from the cities to lower priced areas outside the city

WFH effect?

Surely the US housing market shouldn’t be looked at as a whole - thought I read a report someone linked the other week that housing market in some areas pre Covid were close to collapse. For example parts of NJ in a bad place while places like MA still strong. State property taxes also vary greatly state to state...

PommieBast

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Is this a discussion or condescension forum ? last time around prices fell by 70 % in many parts of the country and there were still buyers for property , if there is a worldwide slowdown there is nothing to stop prices falling much more than the insiders predict.

In a falling market a lot of sellers will be sitting out as well. There's a few €250-275k places in D1 that I could foresee going for less than €200k, but that is because they are all apartments for which the management company is underwater.

Claw Hammer

MattS1 wrote: »

Why would anyone willingly enter a contract such as that? Completely stupid.

They will be offered the contract on a take it or leave it basis in the case of a new house and many second hand houses. if they don't sign it, someone else will. it is a risk many are willing to take. the alternative might be to rent all one's life.

standardg60

Hubertj wrote: »

Well if you can call what people peddle in here discussion....

Discussion is making an argument one way or the other.
Describing people as peddling when making an argument is essentially surrendering to their argument when you don't have a legitimate response.

The housing market in this country has basically become a pyramid scheme over the last couple of decades. It requires more and more new entrants supporting an argument that stuff costs a particular amount and therefore can't fall below a particular amount.

Who says land should cost A
Who says developers should make B
Who says construction workers should make C
Who says estate agents should make D
Who says banks should make E

Actually they do because they have loaned to B to pay A, C and D.
Credit is the enemy of society, what would things actually cost without it?

The ST business section ran a complete sop to Cartrawler.com last Sunday despite having laid bare it's financial position over the previous two weeks, including the fact that Bank of Ireland was writing down millions on an outstanding loan.

The Governor of BOI is unbelievably also the chairman of said company!
People seriously need to cop on.

JohnnyChimpo

The_Conductor wrote: »

Google 'Sheephill Avenue, Corduff' with the terms
gangland,

arson,

drug dealing,

gun attack,

Gardai attacked,

Doctor's surgery ransacked,

pedophile scout leader,

rape threat to Garda's wife,

petrol bomb,

knife attack,

houses shot at,

20 Gardai needed to quell a riot,

gun battle,

mob feud..........

And thats probably just touching the tip of the iceberg.......

They like to drop the 'Corduff' part of the postal address..........

You could save on a TV subscription and just look out your window for entertainment though