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Share Picks 2020

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Nemeses2050

4D Pharma down heavily in the last few sessions, Any news?

TUI and Airline stocks flying

Kilboor

Up 50% on NBRV since early April. Anticipating another break to 1-1.20 from here.

heffo500

I bought Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT) and Ishares FTSE 250 ETF, hopefully, we don't have a double-dip.

Nemeses2050

that's what market is anticipating, but I doubt it'll be so straight forward. We all going to be cautious for the next few months in our day to day lives, we will be vary of going out, taking holidays, buying big ticket items and so on...

hottipper

looking more and more like a v shaped recovery, was thinking we'd get some retrace (w) but not looking like it at all now.

Wombatman

Airbus up another 6% today. Boeing should see a similar jump. Well up pre-market.

Jim2007

Thargor wrote: »

Volkswagon shares rose today after a German judge basically said they have to fully refund everyone who bought one, well they only have to refund the guy who brought the case but how is that not a precedent?

Germany like most of mainland Europe has civil law, no common law. Therefore precedents are not binding. They may or may not be taken into account by another judge hearing a similar case. Only codified law must be taken into accounting.

So it is one ruling in one case, nothing more at this stage. If or when they had lost several cases it might have impact, we’ll have to wait and see.

Thargor

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Yeah, one of their planes go down with probable technical issue and their stock increases 6%, just shows how baffling the markets are right now.

weemcd wrote: »

I've considered it upside down land for several months now.

Volkswagon shares rose today after a German judge basically said they have to fully refund everyone who bought one, well they only have to refund the guy who brought the case but how is that not a precedent?

1123heavy

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Yeah, one of their planes go down with probable technical issue and their stock increases 6%, just shows how baffling the markets are right now.

It isn't looking like the plane went down with a technical fault

weemcd

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Yeah, one of their planes go down with probable technical issue and their stock increases 6%, just shows how baffling the markets are right now.

I've considered it upside down land for several months now.

Mantis Toboggan

littlevillage wrote: »

Yeah, surprisingly how Airbus got a bounce.... after one of their planes crashed with a probable technical fault. I think there is renewed optimism regarding air travel and countries co-operating with safe zones etc. which is giving them a lift.

I'm not holding Airbus at the moment, but if I was, I'd be thinking of selling on the bounce today.

Yeah, one of their planes go down with probable technical issue and their stock increases 6%, just shows how baffling the markets are right now.

ShareShare

littlevillage wrote: »

Yeah, surprisingly how Airbus got a bounce.... after one of their planes crashed with a probable technical fault. I think there is renewed optimism regarding air travel and countries co-operating with safe zones etc. which is giving them a lift.

I'm not holding Airbus at the moment, but if I was, I'd be thinking of selling on the bounce today.

I did about 30 minutes ago

I was originally long on them, but after watching things unfold with the airlines. I think they will be a poor gainer over the next couple of years.
Airlines have too much stock of planes right now.
They're not going to be expanding new areas for a while.
They're low on cash by the end of this.
The existing plane rental market will have lots of stock available so why purchase..
Second hand plane market will likely have lots of options available.

Airbus to me are a great company when the airline industry is in constant expansion mode.

of course, this is all just arm chair thinking. I made a little profit on them so happy for exiting my position and redirecting the funds.

littlevillage

ShareShare wrote: »

I was fearing the same. They are up 5.3% as i write. Quite an increase given the context. Pleased myself though!
There will be speculation about aircraft deficiencies after the Boeing nonsense, it will tend to prove untrue in 99% of cases.

Yeah, surprisingly how Airbus got a bounce.... after one of their planes crashed with a probable technical fault. I think there is renewed optimism regarding air travel and countries co-operating with safe zones etc. which is giving them a lift.

I'm not holding Airbus at the moment, but if I was, I'd be thinking of selling on the bounce today.

ShareShare

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Is there likely to be a reaction to Airbus on Monday with that plane going down in Pakistan?

I was fearing the same. They are up 5.3% as i write. Quite an increase given the context. Pleased myself though!
There will be speculation about aircraft deficiencies after the Boeing nonsense, it will tend to prove untrue in 99% of cases.

Bob Harris

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Is there likely to be a reaction to Airbus on Monday with that plane going down in Pakistan?

I think if there is a reaction it would be across the whole industry if the accident is as a result of planes lying idle and then being put back into service as restrictions are lifted.

Mantis Toboggan

Is there likely to be a reaction to Airbus on Monday with that plane going down in Pakistan?

Jim2007

voluntary wrote: »

Buffet is one of the smart people who see dividends as they really are: enforcing investors to share their money with the taxman at times where they have no control over it.

Can't ever remember him saying that... all I remember is that was of the opinion that so long as companies can invest retained profits at a rate better than what the owner could they should do so, otherwise they should be returned to the owner.

iAcesHigh

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Is it possible that given Trumps animosity towards Bezos that there could be some antitrust move on Amazon .

They should, but atm the only thing that seems to be cooking is Google with Facebook next in line. Will be interesting to see when will Amazon with his huge moves be on their plate, but I wouldn't expect anything before US Elections, or even for quite some time afterwards considering these things need to be properly prepared ...

voluntary

Buffet is one of the smart people who see dividends as they really are: enforcing investors to share their money with the taxman at times where they have no control over it. I see it the same way, much better to let stakeholders decide if or when they want to cash out. Selling 2% of stock each year is equivalent to a 2% annual dividend. Dividends are especially evil if you're a tax resident in countries like Ireland, which taxes dividend payments do death.

Why anyone living here wishes companies to pay dividends is beyond my understanding. Unless you invest via a pension fund only or exempt from dividend tax some other way (maybe no other income?) then dividends are EVIL, period.

Supercell

Buffet hasn't pulled the trigger yet on his huge cash pile and isnt paying a dividend, which frustrates a lot of investors.
Hard to see how even with the fed that reality wont hit the market and we revisit the lows again, maybe that's his thought process, one of his famous quotes goes something like the stock market is a mechanism for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

TiGeR KiNgS

robman60 wrote: »

What do people make of Berkshire? Notable that it hasn't really bounced much off its 25% drop. Of course sig ificant key person risk but if things truly take a turn they have huge cash reserves on the sidelines.

Notable that Ackman loaded up on them after his big market short but it's the only one that hasn't really gone anywhere.

I think there are worries that Berkshire will have to make Covid related insurance payouts, also the loss on the equity portfolio side has been dissapointing, capital intensive business have been the biggest losers during the pandemic which has been a large part of the Berkshire equity portfolio for the last 10 years.

robman60

What do people make of Berkshire? Notable that it hasn't really bounced much off its 25% drop. Of course sig ificant key person risk but if things truly take a turn they have huge cash reserves on the sidelines.

Notable that Ackman loaded up on them after his big market short but it's the only one that hasn't really gone anywhere.

codrulz

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i take it you are shorting BOI ?

Mostly yes, but I've been playing both sides. Currently long at 1.36 avg, with stops at 1.45; If/when I'm stopped out I'll move on for now as I'm watching it too much!

Mad_maxx

codrulz wrote: »

IMO it may not be worth holding Oil stocks in the long term as they look to be entering a period of structural challenges and "peak oil" looming on the horizon, I'm sure plenty view things differently.

In percentage terms, I'm up ~300% this year. WTI shorts, Oil Tankers and BOI have been the bulk of profits alongside FX ( mostly EURUSD, EURGBP, and USDTRY)

i take it you are shorting BOI ?

Jim2007

Shedite27 wrote: »

Those tech/Nasdaq companies wanted us to shop online, spend through apps, spend more time on our phones, pay money for work collaboration tools, etc

Under normal circumstances the user growth they got in 2 months, they would normally have had to wait 3/5 years. Massive win for them, no surprise to me that those companies are flying.

And where do you think the money is going to come from to spend on line? Right now people still have money in their pockets and an expectation that this will be short term. Let’s see what it is like 8 to 12 months out, when the government support starts to dry up, the bank balances start to dwindle, the recession starts to bit and the possibility of another lockdown looms.

I hope I’m wrong not for the sake of the markets, but for the people that are going to have to take the brunt of it - the weakest part of society as usual.

99nsr125

codrulz wrote: »

IMO it may not be worth holding Oil stocks in the long term as they look to be entering a period of structural challenges and "peak oil" looming on the horizon, I'm sure plenty view things differently.

In percentage terms, I'm up ~300% this year. WTI shorts, Oil Tankers and BOI have been the bulk of profits alongside FX ( mostly EURUSD, EURGBP, and USDTRY)

Good job

codrulz

peterofthebr wrote: »

honest question here, i bough into BHP and Shell back in April..but sitting on the fence since..both are up a little (im a buy and hold person)..since the start of the year anyone inteststed in devulging how much they have made from buying and stelling this year so far - <€1K, <€5k, <€15k, <€20k...or more...id only be aound 1.5k if i sold what i bought now, but will hold for the longer term... just being nosy..

IMO it may not be worth holding Oil stocks in the long term as they look to be entering a period of structural challenges and "peak oil" looming on the horizon, I'm sure plenty view things differently.

In percentage terms, I'm up ~300% this year. WTI shorts, Oil Tankers and BOI have been the bulk of profits alongside FX ( mostly EURUSD, EURGBP, and USDTRY)

Shedite27

Jim2007 wrote: »

Because a major contraction of the economy will impact every company and it will impact consumer behaviour in other ways as well.

On top of this there is also the potential of a looming trade war between the USA and China, which may spill over into other areas.

Careful work and strong models are needed to assess the potential of companies these days.

Those tech/Nasdaq companies wanted us to shop online, spend through apps, spend more time on our phones, pay money for work collaboration tools, etc

Under normal circumstances the user growth they got in 2 months, they would normally have had to wait 3/5 years. Massive win for them, no surprise to me that those companies are flying.

Jim2007

Shedite27 wrote: »

Those companies driving the Nasdaq have nothing to fear from the pandemic, why wouldn't it grow back?

Because a major contraction of the economy will impact every company and it will impact consumer behaviour in other ways as well.

On top of this there is also the potential of a looming trade war between the USA and China, which may spill over into other areas.

Careful work and strong models are needed to assess the potential of companies these days.

Shedite27

zpehtsfd wrote: »

That would give it a $5T valuation. That's like 20% of US GDP. :eek:

I'm old enough to remember when Cisco and Intel were the "hold forever" companies.

We are living in unparalleled times with massive buybacks, ZIRP and the Fed willing to do whatever it takes to prop this market. Nasdaq is right back to pre-COVID levels. Pure insanity. imo

Those companies driving the Nasdaq have nothing to fear from the pandemic, why wouldn't it grow back?