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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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[Deleted User]

Cal4567 wrote: »

The tax to try prevent property owners from hoarding land was only collected by 1 in 8 councils last year

https://www.thejournal.ie/vacant-site-levy-5104669-May2020/

The report showed only four of the country’s 31 local authorities – Dublin City, Kilkenny, Waterford and Wicklow – had made any collection of the levy last year, while more than a quarter of council had no active register of vacant sites.

I do really struggle to appreciate how local authorities can be effective stakeholders in the general property market. They complain about not being able to demonstrate local management and accountability but when are given the opportunity to do so, fail miserably. I think I'd much prefer my tax dollars to be used by central government with a country wide approach, we are really quite a small country.

Many Councils, including my own one, put up the household tax. It is a disgrace, and its actually quite insightful as to how business gets treated here. Developers are seen as more important than the ordinary mass of people.

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/12/tech/twitter-work-from-home-forever/index.html

All it will take for a really big change would be for governments to grow a pair and increase payroll type taxes for workers in offices in major cities and reduce or eliminate such taxes for working from home.

Instead of the constant pressure to spend more and more public money on improving infrastructure in cities for the near exclusive benefit of corporations, they should provide incentive for the corporations to decentralise and get out of cities so they don't have to basically subsidise the freeloaders. They pay stuff all tax and expect governments to spend a huge proportion of public revenues to their near exclusive benefit.

Companies are already under pressure to pay more for living in Dublin

Cal4567

The tax to try prevent property owners from hoarding land was only collected by 1 in 8 councils last year

https://www.thejournal.ie/vacant-site-levy-5104669-May2020/

The report showed only four of the country’s 31 local authorities – Dublin City, Kilkenny, Waterford and Wicklow – had made any collection of the levy last year, while more than a quarter of council had no active register of vacant sites.

I do really struggle to appreciate how local authorities can be effective stakeholders in the general property market. They complain about not being able to demonstrate local management and accountability but when are given the opportunity to do so, fail miserably. I think I'd much prefer my tax dollars to be used by central government with a country wide approach, we are really quite a small country.

Mic 1972

Hubertj wrote: »

I miss the office and look forward to getting back there. I don’t have a commute - 20 min run. I may continue to wfh once a week when things return to a level of normality. I miss socia interaction with people on a personal and professional level. Developing interpersonal skills, confidence, etc is better done, in my opinion, face to face.
My home office set up is fine so that’s not a factor in my preference to an office

Same here. I'm not fully set up for a proper home office as IKEA still closed but I will soon. But I don't see myself spending 8 hours per day for the next few years working form my box room. Hopefully WFH will become an option available to everyone without being the only option available

what_traffic

1percent wrote: »

What do ye think of my amateur economic projection?

Looks reasonable enough to me, Central Banks Worldwide will have to inflate there way out of this.
Not sure on the local projections around housing, that looks like a harder ideology to break down if the FG'rs are in next Gov I'd say.

cnocbui

Twitter will allow some of its workforce to continue working from home "forever" if they choose, the company confirmed to CNN Business on Tuesday.
The decision reflects how some measures implemented to deal with the pandemic could lead to a new normal for corporate America, even after the immediate health crisis.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/12/tech/twitter-work-from-home-forever/index.html

All it will take for a really big change would be for governments to grow a pair and increase payroll type taxes for workers in offices in major cities and reduce or eliminate such taxes for working from home.

Instead of the constant pressure to spend more and more public money on improving infrastructure in cities for the near exclusive benefit of corporations, they should provide incentive for the corporations to decentralise and get out of cities so they don't have to basically subsidise the freeloaders. They pay stuff all tax and expect governments to spend a huge proportion of public revenues to their near exclusive benefit.

Hubertj

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Genuine question, how are people liking Working From Home?
I've been doing it since January and I'm expected to be on it until December as the company i work for now specifically hired me as a home based associate.
Honestly I miss all things I used to hate when being at the office, the daily penny chats, the background chatter, the coffee machines, the canteen routine, etc.. This combined with lock down is making me extremely bored
If there is life after Covid I'm probably going to go for an office based job again next year

I miss the office and look forward to getting back there. I don’t have a commute - 20 min run. I may continue to wfh once a week when things return to a level of normality. I miss socia interaction with people on a personal and professional level. Developing interpersonal skills, confidence, etc is better done, in my opinion, face to face.
My home office set up is fine so that’s not a factor in my preference to an office

[Deleted User]

Interested Observer wrote: »

.......... somewhere on the coast. Would have to be fairly cheap so the question is would anyone have recommendations for areas of the country to look at?

Youghal in Cork, property prices were on the floor there at the best of times.

[Deleted User]

1percent wrote: »

................do the goverment use cheap debt and a freely available labour pool to start a social house building project (politically motivation is there as it grasps SF whip hand)........

A decent lash of social house building is well overdue. Bit of a nightmare in itself though as loads of the crowd on the housing list are quite fussy about where they live etc etc etc

awec

Interested Observer wrote: »

Facebook/Mark Zuckerberg did a live stream yesterday where he said he expects 50% of their workforce to be remote working in the next 5-10 years. It is 100% coming.

This is totally unrelated, and some ways down the line, but my wife and I are considering looking at a holiday house type thing in Ireland somewhere. It wouldn't really be an investment, we'd want to use it ourselves, somewhere on the coast. Would have to be fairly cheap so the question is would anyone have recommendations for areas of the country to look at?

Bundoran.

Villa05

Mic 1972 wrote:

Genuine question, how are people liking Working From Home? I've been doing it since January and I'm expected to be on it until December as the company i work for now specifically hired me as a home based associate.

Its very much horses for courses, some people love it some hate it and others carry on regardless. Like most thing you miss something more when it's gone

Are you 100% wfh

[Deleted User]

Facebook/Mark Zuckerberg did a live stream yesterday where he said he expects 50% of their workforce to be remote working in the next 5-10 years. It is 100% coming.

This is totally unrelated, and some ways down the line, but my wife and I are considering looking at a holiday house type thing in Ireland somewhere. It wouldn't really be an investment, we'd want to use it ourselves, somewhere on the coast. Would have to be fairly cheap so the question is would anyone have recommendations for areas of the country to look at?

Captainsatnav

HodlforWin79 wrote: »

You obviously don't work in the tech game or know anyone who does. That post is on par with having a luddites view of things or just not having any insight into the topic.

dem computers are a fad

1percent

Villa05 wrote: »

My long lost brother, welcome to boards

No bother, I've always been here just keep my mouth shut unless I have something to say.

HodlforWin79

Claw Hammer wrote: »

WFH is just a fad, like "blues sky thinking" , outsourcing, "going forward", "at this point in time". It will all pass.

You obviously don't work in the tech game or know anyone who does. That post is on par with having a luddites view of things or just not having any insight into the topic.

Captainsatnav

Padre_Pio wrote: »

If WFH is more attractive to employees than gyms and smoothie bars, you can guarantee companies will move to a WFH policy.

It costs an employer about €2000 to set up a home office, with desk, chair, screens, etc. It costs far more to maintain an office space with the same equipment, plus utilities, cleaning, security, maintenance etc.

If FB and Twitter are doing it, I guarantee every IT company is at least considering it.

Even if you have to come into a Dublin office one day a week, a commute from Galway or Cork is very doable.

This is what I hope is in store. Living (existing) in Dublin but would like to buy a house, probably in Cork in the next few months.

Mic 1972

Genuine question, how are people liking Working From Home?
I've been doing it since January and I'm expected to be on it until December as the company i work for now specifically hired me as a home based associate.
Honestly I miss all things I used to hate when being at the office, the daily penny chats, the background chatter, the coffee machines, the canteen routine, etc.. This combined with lock down is making me extremely bored

If there is life after Covid I'm probably going to go for an office based job again next year

Villa05

1percent wrote:

The wild card then, if money is being consumed in the real economy and equities are deflating, Bonds become a better store of wealth meaning continued cheap gov debt. If there is an over supply of construction workers in the market because developers are not developing at the same rate because of increased cost with reduced value and commercial property is back from its lofty heights. do the goverment use cheap debt and a freely available labour pool to start a social house building project (politically motivation is there as it grasps SF whip hand) removing the HAP recipients from the Private rental market and reducing demand and yields further.

1percent wrote:

What do ye think of my amateur economic projection?

1percent wrote:

Just a fun thought experiment.

My long lost brother, welcome to boards

Villa05

Billythekid19 wrote:

Tom Parlon was on radio 1 this morning to clarify he meant 40% decrease in prodcuctivity rather than 40% increased costs to build the childrens hospital!

As the Conducter stated he was most likely "kite flying" to test the reaction. He is an experienced politician after all.

I have no doubt he said what was reported but tracked back on the public backlash

Michael o Flynn, the Cork developer rubbished any suggestion that covid 19 would have any meaningful impact on costs on the tonight show on virgin media

Tallback wrote:

To be fair to Auctioneera - unlike a lot of others he's completely transparent as to his angle. It's even in the username! People can take that into consideration when assessing his points but to my mind its hugely useful to have someone "inside" the property market giving their view

Agreed, I find it positive for the thread to have a visible industry insider to debate some of the claims made here

SozBbz wrote:

New homes will not continue to be built. Many developers will lay people off or stop using their subcontractors who will in turn lay people off. Developers will not build if they cant get the finance and/or can't make the margins necessary. That industry will shrink.

It would be interesting if what you say come to fruition, because the commercial building sector will certainly stall given uncertainty in retail and office space

With so many tradespeople out of work and the Government paying over 1 billion per year in resedintial rents. It would be a no brainer for the Government to intervene with a money saving residential building program where they are needed. New money will be close to 0% for stimulus programs

I hear it reported yesterday that Gov formation talks were stalled on whether new building should be targeted for social/affordable or FTB

There is a happy medium in there somewhere.

Padre_Pio

FVP3 wrote: »

I doubt it, if the company saves money on corporate rent and cheaper workers why wouldn't they continue with it? The crisis has accelerated a process that was ongoing anyway.

If WFH is more attractive to employees than gyms and smoothie bars, you can guarantee companies will move to a WFH policy.

It costs an employer about €2000 to set up a home office, with desk, chair, screens, etc. It costs far more to maintain an office space with the same equipment, plus utilities, cleaning, security, maintenance etc.

If FB and Twitter are doing it, I guarantee every IT company is at least considering it.

Even if you have to come into a Dublin office one day a week, a commute from Galway or Cork is very doable.

1percent

Hi all,
I have a theory based on macro economics and there are a few variables involved and I would like to hear feed back on what ye think.
So firstly the knowns,
-Money is being printed hand over fist by central banks.
-Production costs and capital expenditure of all levels of the european economy have increased, all that perspex isn't cheap, distancing on the factory or shop floor reducing productivity etc.
-Incomes have remained (relatively) stable and consumption has dropped.
So as we get back to a functioning economy I think inflation will start to rise as everything from your loaf of bread, your bar of dairy milk, your flight to the south of spain, your VW Golf, your new build home!!! have to increase to cover the costs. This is the inflation that the ECB has been wanting for years, prices rising in the real economy not just in the financial markets.
But if this inflation rises above 2% then interest rates need to rise reducing the supply of money and to get it back to the 2% mark, the germans will be sure of this.
So increased interest rates increase mortgage costs reducing loan value reducing house prices.

The wild card then, if money is being consumed in the real economy and equities are deflating, Bonds become a better store of wealth meaning continued cheap gov debt. If there is an over supply of construction workers in the market because developers are not developing at the same rate because of increased cost with reduced value and commercial property is back from its lofty heights. do the goverment use cheap debt and a freely available labour pool to start a social house building project (politically motivation is there as it grasps SF whip hand) removing the HAP recipients from the Private rental market and reducing demand and yields further.

What do ye think of my amateur economic projection?

I'm not in a position to buy for at least another 12months anyway renting in a share that I'm happy with. And able to save more than I pay in rent each month.

Just a fun thought experiment.

alan_mur

cnocbui wrote: »

I doubt planned new homes will be built until there is greater market certainty. I can't imagine any builder proceeding at the moment if there is even the slightest chance of a return to a dysfunctional market with prices below cost.

Do have some numbers or evidence for these 'plenty' of large homes due to the owners in care?

Last official figures from the CSO (2016)

FVP3

Claw Hammer wrote: »

WFH is just a fad, like "blues sky thinking" , outsourcing, "going forward", "at this point in time". It will all pass.

I doubt it, if the company saves money on corporate rent and cheaper workers why wouldn't they continue with it? The crisis has accelerated a process that was ongoing anyway.

Diarmuid

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Tom Parlon was on radio 1 this morning to clarify he meant 40% decrease in prodcuctivity rather than 40% increased costs to build the childrens hospital!

Yeah "clarifying" after the last pronouncement went down like a sh*t sandwich.

Auctioneera

alan_mur wrote: »

As a previous seller with Auctioneera, they provided a great service and were significantly cheaper than other estate agencies. I completed in March.

I tend to disagree with the view that prices won't fall but I do believe that there will be reductions at certain price points and markets.

From a Dublin perspective:

On the demand side, driving down the prices:
Short term rentals are dead.
Long term rental prices are dropping, purely down to supply and demand. So rental yields will drive down price
I'm not going back into the office until at least October, probably not til next year so remote working will increase and become normal. SOme people will move out of Dublin.
Some foreign workers that may have been potential buyers may work from their own country.
Banks are going through there mortgage approvals and reducing the loan amounts in line with affordability measures. I got emailed by an agent yesterday to say that I couldn't see a house until I could show that I had mortgage approval in place.
Sale agreed are falling through, this is a short term problem for the market.
There is a significant green agenda now and the Government will look to bring in retrofit grants. There are lots of 30s,40s,50s,60s houses on the market with BER G,F, E where the house aren't currently suitable to live in. They require €100k - €250k to refurbish

On the supply side
Houses are going on the market. There are 46 new listing on daft in Dublin North city in the last week.
Planned new homes will continue to be built, it's that or lay off the builders. There is no where from them to go this time around.
There are plenty of empty large home due to people in care home and health issues. These will come on the market.

Thanks Alan - delighted you were happy with our service.

cnocbui

alan_mur wrote: »

...

Planned new homes will continue to be built, it's that or lay off the builders. There is no where from them to go this time around.
There are plenty of empty large home due to people in care home and health issues. These will come on the market.

I doubt planned new homes will be built until there is greater market certainty. I can't imagine any builder proceeding at the moment if there is even the slightest chance of a return to a dysfunctional market with prices below cost.

Do have some numbers or evidence for these 'plenty' of large homes due to the owners in care?

SozBbz

alan_mur wrote: »

As a previous seller with Auctioneera, they provided a great service and were significantly cheaper than other estate agencies. I completed in March.

I tend to disagree with the view that prices won't fall but I do believe that there will be reductions at certain price points and markets.

From a Dublin perspective:

On the demand side, driving down the prices:
Short term rentals are dead.
Long term rental prices are dropping, purely down to supply and demand. So rental yields will drive down price
I'm not going back into the office until at least October, probably not til next year so remote working will increase and become normal. SOme people will move out of Dublin.
Some foreign workers that may have been potential buyers may work from their own country.
Banks are going through there mortgage approvals and reducing the loan amounts in line with affordability measures. I got emailed by an agent yesterday to say that I couldn't see a house until I could show that I had mortgage approval in place.
Sale agreed are falling through, this is a short term problem for the market.
There is a significant green agenda now and the Government will look to bring in retrofit grants. There are lots of 30s,40s,50s,60s houses on the market with BER G,F, E where the house aren't currently suitable to live in. They require €100k - €250k to refurbish

On the supply side
Houses are going on the market. There are 46 new listing on daft in Dublin North city in the last week.
Planned new homes will continue to be built, it's that or lay off the builders. There is no where from them to go this time around.
There are plenty of empty large home due to people in care home and health issues. These will come on the market.

As for houses going on the market, some of those are likely relistings rather than real "new" listings. Even in normal circumstances new listings would dry up at this time of year anyway as agents start to wind down for the summer. Most sellers would get their properties listed by April or keep their powder dry until September.
New homes will not continue to be built. Many developers will lay people off or stop using their subcontractors who will in turn lay people off. Developers will not build if they cant get the finance and/or can't make the margins necessary. That industry will shrink.
As for empty large houses coming to the market, are you talking about old people who have actually died? You need to factor in the time it takes to go through probate and likely complete the Fair Deal process. Its not quick. Also many of these homes are likely to be the type that need €100-250k to be brought up to standard, so they're not going to be a straight forward option for most FTBs.

Tallback

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I've seen your fees policy and as I said I welcome the discussion.

But this is a discussion, a forum where ideas can be exchanged and hopefully peoples views and opinions mature and grow.

But you're an auctioneer website, not a person (even if there's a person typing out responses) You're outlook cannot change, because to do so means you lose money. So even if the property market is burning down, you'll say it's alright and put on a brave face, like the orchestra on the Titanic.

The reps on the Talk To forums like Liberty or Irish Water are no different to you. I would also question if we're talking to one person, or are their multiple people with access to this account?

EDIT: of course this is just one persons opinion and i have zero power to do anything.

Everyone on this forum has some sort of angle - you'd have to question the sort of person who has no agenda with the property market and spends their free time discussing it!

To be fair to Auctioneera - unlike a lot of others he's completely transparent as to his angle. It's even in the username! People can take that into consideration when assessing his points but to my mind its hugely useful to have someone "inside" the property market giving their view

Billythekid19

Villa05 wrote: »

Sarah mcInenery rte radio 1 yesterday
2 sections
1 general construction
2 children's hospital

It was a developor that rubbished Tom parlon claims

Tom Parlon was on radio 1 this morning to clarify he meant 40% decrease in prodcuctivity rather than 40% increased costs to build the childrens hospital!

Donald Trump

Claw Hammer wrote: »

WFH is just a fad, like "blues sky thinking" , outsourcing, "going forward", "at this point in time". It will all pass.

Providing office space for employees is expensive. A company might be willing to accept the risk of a decrease in productivity if it can reduce those costs. Additionally it might make roles more attractive to staff. If you are a parent commuting 40 minutes each way to work, you might be happy to work in a remote job that pays 10% less.

If it saves the company money, they will do it. There is a good chance that it will.