FG to just do nothing for the next 5 years.

Deleted User wrote: »

Rattled much!! :pac:

Where anywhere deos it suggest paid posting/shilling or requirement to be whooly positive??

Seems you have dropped your lie of group of posters,posting only positive posts :pac:

Its really really not,what you think it is....a series of private forums and inhouse competitions....half the class in school.used be on it,for free oxygen tickets

Like seriously,using netfliz documentry is a really weak start point (no documentry is required to be truthful,its the difference between journalism and entertainment)

My head actually hurts trying to read that post. I think Mr Twain said it best......

Redgirl82 wrote: »

Francie you need to stop with the personal attacks, just because you are caught out yet again.

I linked the Sinn Fein website Francie.

Which does not prove anything other than they are being open about enlisting support.

Quite simply you lied...no personal attack in that.

If you have proof of an instance of SF paying anyone to 'shill' for them, and the other 'claims'/lies' you made on the Reunification thread, then I have no problem withdrawing my allegation that you lie at the drop of a hat.

markodaly

Redgirl82 wrote: »

Greens will lose nearly every seat if another election. They are complete idiots if they don’t see that.

The Greens, PBP/SOL and the SD's are very vulnerable.

I had a look over the results.

Here is the outlook for PBP/SOL
Mick Barry in Cork North Central came got in at the last seat.
If SF run another candidate, he is most likely a goner next time out.

SF got a huge vote in Dublin Mid-West, the seat of Gino Kenny. A 3rd seat is a definite possibility for SF here, at the expense of Gino.

Paul Murphy got an OK vote the last time but way down on previous outings, but SF threw away a seat here. Another SF candidate would make it interesting and he could be in serious serious trouble.

Brid Smith got in on count 2 in after a huge transfer of votes from AOS of printer fame. Another seat here for SF thrown away. Again, would be in serious trouble if SF ran another candidate.

RBB is arguably the safest seat out there, and would get in on his own merit.

So, if SF ran more candidates in those seats, PBP/SOL would be decimated from 6 to perhaps 1 candidate.

Ok, lets look at the Social Democrats.

They got 6 seats last time out.

Catherine Murphy and Rosin Shorthall would be safe enough but the rest would most likely be goners.
The SF extra candidates would eat into their 1st pref votes and the electorate would turn away from them after their shyness come government formation time.

Cian Callaghan, Holly Cairns and Gary Gannon would be gone. They may be able to save Jennifer Whitmore's seat
3/6 would be a good outing for them. Those seats going to FG/Labour/FG or SF

A brief look at the Greens.

Some of their big names would be safe, Eamon Ryan, Catherine Martin and Ossian Smyth, but the rest relied on transfers from other parties to get in. Also note that these transfers came from FF and FG in a lot of the time. I would expect some gains in Dublin for FF and FG if the Greens do badly, so a few extra seats here are there could be in order, or even back to Labour.

So, on a bad day, the Greens could be back down to 3 or so from their heady heights of 12.
I dont think it will come to that but they will lose seats if they carry on as they are, especially now the Green narrative has been put on pause due to Covid-19

[Deleted User]

Redgirl82 wrote: »

My head actually hurts trying to read that post. I think Mr Twain said it best......

Suffice to.say,yous lack intellectual.capacity to.counter the pints raised so

[Deleted User]

markodaly wrote: »

The Greens, PBP/SOL and the SD's are very vulnerable.

I had a look over the results.

Here is the outlook for PBP/SOL
Mick Barry in Cork North Central came got in at the last seat.
If SF run another candidate, he is most likely a goner next time out.

SF got a huge vote in Dublin Mid-West, the seat of Gino Kenny. A 3rd seat is a definite possibility for SF here, at the expense of Gino.

Paul Murphy got an OK vote the last time but way down on previous outings, but SF threw away a seat here. Another SF candidate would make it interesting and he could be in serious serious trouble.

Brid Smith got in on count 2 in after a huge transfer of votes from AOS of printer fame. Another seat here for SF thrown away. Again, would be in serious trouble if SF ran another candidate.

RBB is arguably the safest seat out there, and would get in on his own merit.

So, if SF ran more candidates in those seats, PBP/SOL would be decimated from 6 to perhaps 1 candidate.

Ok, lets look at the Social Democrats.

They got 6 seats last time out.

Catherine Murphy and Rosin Shorthall would be safe enough but the rest would most likely be goners.
The SF extra candidates would eat into their 1st pref votes and the electorate would turn away from them after their shyness come government formation time.

Cian Callaghan, Holly Cairns and Gary Gannon would be gone. They may be able to save Jennifer Whitmore's seat
3/6 would be a good outing for them. Those seats going to FG/Labour/FG or SF

A brief look at the Greens.

Some of their big names would be safe, Eamon Ryan, Catherine Martin and Ossian Smyth, but the rest relied on transfers from other parties to get in. Also note that these transfers came from FF and FG in a lot of the time. I would expect some gains in Dublin for FF and FG if the Greens do badly, so a few extra seats here are there could be in order, or even back to Labour.

So, on a bad day, the Greens could be back down to 3 or so from their heady heights of 12.
I dont think it will come to that but they will lose seats if they carry on as they are, especially now the Green narrative has been put on pause due to Covid-19

They might struggle in waterford too....they got huge transfer off cullinane and the pbp woman,cant see shinners not run a 2nd canditadte here in west waterford next time

I gave your man in green,number 2,on persumption,that your wan mchugh in galway was gonna get in,as imo shes best new politian in state at the min......idk if id transfer to them again tbh

But SF also ran a huuge social media campaign on transfer left,wheter they could keep those votes in-house is a whole.other qs aswell though

Redgirl82 wrote: »

Less than 2300 likes

How many people got the Watsapp message?

How many people have the wats app off Leo saying the kids are safe to go back school, and tony saying an hour later Leo was talking ****e?

How many people have wats app of Simon Harris saying maybe they should fine the striking nurses?

But but but Leo lied in Govt (which you seem to have no issue with) and Marys face was priceless.

markodaly wrote: »

The Greens, PBP/SOL and the SD's are very vulnerable.

I had a look over the results.

Here is the outlook for PBP/SOL
Mick Barry in Cork North Central came got in at the last seat.
If SF run another candidate, he is most likely a goner next time out.

SF got a huge vote in Dublin Mid-West, the seat of Gino Kenny. A 3rd seat is a definite possibility for SF here, at the expense of Gino.

Paul Murphy got an OK vote the last time but way down on previous outings, but SF threw away a seat here. Another SF candidate would make it interesting and he could be in serious serious trouble.

Brid Smith got in on count 2 in after a huge transfer of votes from AOS of printer fame. Another seat here for SF thrown away. Again, would be in serious trouble if SF ran another candidate.

RBB is arguably the safest seat out there, and would get in on his own merit.

So, if SF ran more candidates in those seats, PBP/SOL would be decimated from 6 to perhaps 1 candidate.

Ok, lets look at the Social Democrats.

They got 6 seats last time out.

Catherine Murphy and Rosin Shorthall would be safe enough but the rest would most likely be goners.
The SF extra candidates would eat into their 1st pref votes and the electorate would turn away from them after their shyness come government formation time.

Cian Callaghan, Holly Cairns and Gary Gannon would be gone. They may be able to save Jennifer Whitmore's seat
3/6 would be a good outing for them. Those seats going to FG/Labour/FG or SF

A brief look at the Greens.

Some of their big names would be safe, Eamon Ryan, Catherine Martin and Ossian Smyth, but the rest relied on transfers from other parties to get in. Also note that these transfers came from FF and FG in a lot of the time. I would expect some gains in Dublin for FF and FG if the Greens do badly, so a few extra seats here are there could be in order, or even back to Labour.

So, on a bad day, the Greens could be back down to 3 or so from their heady heights of 12.
I dont think it will come to that but they will lose seats if they carry on as they are, especially now the Green narrative has been put on pause due to Covid-19

Maybe that is what is driving Ryan to try and get into government. He has enough guile and experience(that the young greens don't have) to know they are probably fooked no matter what they do. Take the comfy seats and enjoy the ride.

Deleted User wrote: »

If they played cards right,they could be largest party in state inside a generation,they have appeal across virtually all demographics

Disagree. They are a massive turnoff in their current form. Touch of the fascists about their decrees and looking down their noses holier than thou demeanours.

I think a lot of people are guilt tripped by this Green attitude and give them a nod as a result.

All the other party's will and have adopted green policies (because they have to) so i think the Greens will just become redundant.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Maybe that is what is driving Ryan to try and get into government. He has enough guile and experience(that the young greens don't have) to know they are probably fooked no matter what they do. Take the comfy seats and enjoy the ride.

Take the comfy seats and enjoy the ride?

More like go into government, take the hard decisions, change the country and hope to change the narrative for five years time.

Your friends in Sinn Fein are afraid of that.

efanton

Redgirl82 wrote: »

Did you watch the Local elections last year?

Sinn Fein might want to run more candidates but who will they be? if they had to run the likes of Violet Anne etc as the A team then they will have to dip into the B team. What is lurking in the B team?

As I said the swing vote is critical to any party. Since the election FG if anyone has won that battle. Some of the Sinn Fein politicians have managed to lose that. Even the Mary Lou interview on the Late Late show was poor if you compared to Leo a few weeks later.

The swing vote is mostly affected by media, ever hear of Cambridge Analytica, do you understand what they did to win elections?

Sinn Fein of course are trying to go after the swing vote, hence why they have set up the SFOS program and are hiring people.

Yes massive growth in any political party or organisation is difficult to manage.
That is a problem that SF have at the moment, but I guess a problem that FG or FF will never have to experience again.

The swing vote definitely can be affected by the media but not to the degree that you allude to. If you actually watch any documentary or read any in depth article about Cambridge Analytics, and companies similar to them, you would already know that. They openly acknowledge that they can't influence voters en mass but instead will target smaller groups of the electorate with messages specifically targeted at them.
There's nothing new there, its parish pump politics gone digital, something FF especially and to a certain degree FG have been practising for decades.
For decades in Ireland we have had newspapers owned and run by self interested parties, political or business, that will deliberately favour one political party and diminish any positive news from any opposition party.
A free, independent and unbiased media has never existed in Ireland, so the only change is that now we are talking about digital media that every individual and every political party has equal access to.

Anyone who signs up for that SF link is simply put on a email mailing list and sent a weekly digest of news relevant to SF, what their TD's and councillors have been doing, news that might not be highlighted in the printed media and inviting those who signed up to join the political party.
There's nothing nefarious or sinister in that.

What we have seen in Ireland has not been a marginal swing that could be the result of media manipulation, it is a general and en mass change in attitude, a demand for a fairer and more equitable society where everyone needs should be accounted for not just those in an ever diminishing inner circle.

Even Leo Vandakar acknowledges this. Support for FF and FF has been constantly waning and will continue to do so.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has admitted that if Fine Gael goes into government again there is a possibility the party could win “only twenty-something” seats in the next election.
'That worries party activists,' Mr Varadkar told Newstalk Breakfast.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/varadkar-worried-fine-gael-might-only-win-20-something-seats-in-next-election-1000869.html
The only reason FG are so hell bent on forming a coalition is that they know this could be the last chance they have to be in government for a considerable time, and potentially never again.

So what is your concern? Is it that FF and FG have lost control of the media, that FG and FF are becoming less and less relevant to the majority of the Irish people, or that in your desperate attempts to dismiss anything or anyone related to SF and the left of centre parties that you will somehow stop the inevitable government that is left of centre but it simply is not working?

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

How many people have the wats app off Leo saying the kids are safe to go back school, and tony saying an hour later Leo was talking ****e?

How many people have wats app of Simon Harris saying maybe they should fine the striking nurses?.

You do understand what a meme is? is it supposed to be funny :P

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Maybe that is what is driving Ryan to try and get into government. He has enough guile and experience(that the young greens don't have) to know they are probably fooked no matter what they do. Take the comfy seats and enjoy the ride.

If the seats are that comfy why don't they chomp at the bit and go for it, same with the SD's?

Redgirl82 wrote: »

You do understand what a meme is? is it supposed to be funny :P

Whats funny about the leader of our country standing in the Dail lying (even when he knows hes lying) trying to put another TD down?

efanton

markodaly wrote: »

If the seats are that comfy why don't they chomp at the bit and go for it, same with the SD's?

Maybe they are chomping at the bit, but recognise that these coalition talks are just as likely to fail as to succeed.

Why would they give FG that last final chance in government when with a new general election both parties are likely to increase their vote.

Eamonn Ryan openly admitted last week the coalition talks as far as he were concerned were about the Green party extracting the most concessions possible from FG and FF. For him to get a 2/3 majority support from the Green party membership, that would have to be an awful lot of concessions. Eamonn Ryan is in a no lose situation, if he gets most of the Green party policies across the line he has done his job, if the Green party doesn't get most of its policies included in the coalitions program for government he can go into a new election claiming he did everything possible and probably increase the Green vote. In effect he has done a De Valera sending his first lieutenant to negotiate on his behalf knowing that the brown stuff will never stick to him. Eamonn Ryan might be politically a cuter hoor than we might give him credit for.
The SD's would have absolutely nothing to gain from joining a FF/FG coalition, so why would or should they bother.

The only party that has anything to lose is FG, which is why we hear the FG TD's and their supporters constantly bleating about how important it is for other parties to accept their 'responsibility' to form a coalition and 'stable government'. Its only important to FG, this is probably their last chance at government for the foreseeable future

As for FF if there is to be no coalition then Micheal Martin is history.
With a new leader they would be open to forming a government that might include SF or the majority of the left of centre parties. FF will survive in one form or another, and that may be an unfortunate fact depending on your own political views.

markodaly

efanton wrote: »

Maybe they are chomping at the bit, but recognise that these coalition talks are just as likely to fail as to succeed.

That sentance is thus a contradiction.

Why would they give FG that last final chance in government when with a new general election both parties are likely to increase their vote.

Who is 'they' now? The Greens? FG are doing just fine at the moment given their poll results, in fact we may see GE 2020 in feb as the bottom of FG support. People will be worried about the economy and jobs now more than ever, and that is FG's biggest trump card, given their record on that front. The polls bear that out.

Eamonn Ryan is in a no lose situation, if he gets most of the Green party policies across the line he has done his job, if the Green party doesn't get most if its policies included in the coalitions program for government he can go into a new election claiming he did everything possible and probably increase the Green vote. THe SD's would have absolutely nothing to gain from joining a FF/FG coalition, so why would or should they bother.

No lose situation? The guy is looking to be toast whatever the result of these talks. He may not be the leader of the Greens for much longer and if the country has to go back to the polls in a few months, fingers will be pointed by many at the Greens for this. It will cost them votes and seats.

The only party that has anything to lose is FG, which is why we here the FG TD's and their supporters constantly bleating about how important it is for other parties to accept their 'responsibility' to form a coalition and 'stable government'. Its only important to FG, this is probably their last chance at government for the foreseeable future

Tell us, what exactly does FG have to lose here?

Another GE, looks like they will gain more seats, via the polls, and the state of the economy given FG are known to be good on this front.

Or... some other government takes shape with SF and FF or some other outcome, FG go into opposition and sit back and laugh when in months to come, all the empty rhetoric about governing dawns on the rookies, while the new cabinet $hit their pants trying to play senior hurling on the home front and in Europe.

I will openly admit that SF are most likely to increase their seat count if there is another GE, but I am adamant that FG will do so as well. I am not a fanboy, I am just realistic.

As for FF if there is to be no coalition the Micheal Martin is history.
With a new leader they would be open to forming a government that might include SF or the majority of the left of centre parties. FF will survive in one form or another, and that may be an unfortunate fact depending on your own political views.

FF are the party that is in real trouble imo. They are being eaten on the left by SF and on the right by FG. They have no real talent on the front bench and another election could be bad for them.
The best case of them would be a FG/SF government next time out but that is unlikely.

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Whats funny about the leader of our country standing in the Dail lying (even when he knows hes lying) trying to put another TD down?

But he wasn't. so yes it is funny

Edgware

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They might struggle in waterford too....they got huge transfer off cullinane and the pbp woman,cant see shinners not run a 2nd canditadte here in west waterford next time

I gave your man in green,number 2,on persumption,that your wan mchugh in galway was gonna get in,as imo shes best new politian in state at the min......idk if id transfer to them again tbh

But SF also ran a huuge social media campaign on transfer left,wheter they could keep those votes in-house is a whole.other qs aswell though

Its PBP Soc Dems, Labour that has more to fear from SF than FG and FF.
Dont feed the crocodile

thequarefellow

markodaly wrote: »

FF are the party that is in real trouble imo. They are being eaten on the left by SF and on the right by FG. They have no real talent on the front bench and another election could be bad for them.
The best case of them would be a FG/SF government next time out but that is unlikely.

Sounds about right. And I hope it transpires. I wonder what do FF supporters think?

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Whats funny about the leader of our country standing in the Dail lying (even when he knows hes lying) trying to put another TD down?

Cullinane teaching Paschal a bit of manners yesterday got a fair bit of sharing too.

The days of Enda Kenny pivoting to 'the conflict/war' when under pressure in the Dáil are over. The slow learners need to catch up and get on with the business of the present.

Brendan Bendar

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Whats funny about the leader of our country standing in the Dail lying (even when he knows hes lying) trying to put another TD down?

“Lying “ that auld hardened word of the ‘bullhorn brigade’.

Kind of ......you know........ well, ‘nuff said.

Redgirl82 wrote: »

But he wasn't. so yes it is funny

So him giving out to Mary Lou about the rate of payments people receive up North when he knows she or her party have no say in the rates, is not making up lies just to have an argument?

The public seen through Leo at the election, Sinn Fein this, IRA that, what about this, what about that and now hes hanging on for dear life hoping him seeing us through the Covid crisis might get his reputation back and he wont just go down as the man who killed FG as main party

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Cullinane teaching Paschal a bit of manners yesterday got a fair bit of sharing too.

The days of Enda Kenny pivoting to 'the conflict/war' when under pressure in the Dáil are over. The slow learners need to catch up and get on with the business of the present.

Wonder if she got that wats app message?

PommieBast

markodaly wrote: »

Also note that these transfers came from FF and FG in a lot of the time. I would expect some gains in Dublin for FF and FG if the Greens do badly, so a few extra seats here are there could be in order, or even back to Labour.

Waterford was a particularly crazy result. Greens got in because an unusually low portion of Geoghegan's vote transferred to his FG running mate..

[Deleted User]

PommieBast wrote: »

Waterford was a particularly crazy result. Greens got in because an unusually low portion of Geoghegan's vote transferred to his FG running mate..

Geoghegan picked up the old deasy vote in dungarvan/west waterford.......lads out there were never gonna vote for city man (and vice versa)

(Along with much published internal conflict in FG waterford)

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Wonder if she got that wats app message?

No I didn’t, neither did anyone else

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

So him giving out to Mary Lou about the rate of payments people receive up North when he knows she or her party have no say in the rates, is not making up lies just to have an argument?

The public seen through Leo at the election, Sinn Fein this, IRA that, what about this, what about that and now hes hanging on for dear life hoping him seeing us through the Covid crisis might get his reputation back and he wont just go down as the man who killed FG as main party

Question 1 No

Question 2 No

Thanks