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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Experience_day

eagle eye wrote: »

Obviously you have reading comprehension difficulties. Inl didn't say I was going to do anything, I just predicted what might happen in the future.

No I read it fine. I was pointing out you can't shun something you have no control or influence over. Unless you want the company's to go in which case.....good luck.

Snow Garden

eagle eye wrote: »

Obviously you have reading comprehension difficulties. Inl didn't say I was going to do anything, I just predicted what might happen in the future.

Semantics and don't be rude. Your point was still lacking in any substance. See my reply to it previously.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

I think alot of the EA and property investors here are banking on a V share recovery also. Can't say I'm that optimistic in the face of a no vaccine environment. I hope people have a good stomach for risk and terrible numbers.

you never answered my qn what's a 1m euro house in Dublin going to worth in 10 years given your prediction of a decade of falling prices

hometruths

Bass Reeves wrote: »

What would the make up of eager sellers be

Possibly some of the cohort who bought property between 7 December 2011 and 31 December 2014 and are exempt from CGT.

The exemption is time sensitive as it reduces the longer you hold the property over 7 years. If you think the market will continue to rise that time sensitivity is probably not such a worry.

However if you think the market might fall, it makes a lot of sense to sell sooner rather than later.

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

you never answered my qn what's a 1m euro house in Dublin going to worth in 10 years given your prediction of a decade of falling prices

I did answer?did you read my reply?and given your follow up on this it appears you have strong beliefs in this.so can you give your answer and your rational behind it?

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

I did answer?did you read my reply?and given your follow up on this it appears you have strong beliefs in this.so can you give your answer and your rational behind it?

you didn't give an answer you are the one with the strong beliefs, calling a 10 year long decrease in prices is a massive statement .

You must have some idea what those decreases will be if that's your prediction ? The maths is easy after that .

Leo made mincemeat of your girl Mary last week, she's another spoofer .

Snow Garden

addaword wrote: »

It also mentions spending cuts. Many people think it is inevitable public sector salaries and pensions will be cut, to bring them more back in to line with Europe. That will affect the property market too.

Pensions and Inheritance tax are easy targets and will most certainly be attacked. It's a little bit sick given it's mostly elderly people dying.
Public sector salaries and pensions might be looked at but I think the government will go easy given the political blowback since the last recession (e.g. newer teachers). I imagine most people would kill for a safe public sector job when we're in the middle of this recession. We won't hear the phrase 'pension timebomb' for a while or will we?

eagle eye

Snow Garden wrote:

Semantics and don't be rude. Your point was still lacking in any substance. See my reply to it previously.

You don't be rude, I'm well entitled to voice my opinion on what might happen.

addaword

Cyrus wrote: »

you didn't give an answer you are the one with the strong beliefs, calling a 10 year long decrease in prices is a massive statement .

I know many if not all properties were woth less in Jan 2020 than in 2007.
In 2007, someone calling a 13 year long decrease in prices would have been declared mad.
Now the world has changed utterly due to the pandemic, brexit, huge rise in national debt, the rise of the left and other factors, a 10 year long decrease in prices is far from impossible imho.

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

you didn't give an answer you are the one with the strong beliefs, calling a 10 year long decrease in prices is a massive statement .

You must have some idea what those decreases will be if that's your prediction ? The maths is easy after that .

Leo made mincemeat of your girl Mary last week, she's another spoofer .

I gave my views.re read my posts. As regards the last part of your post I'm confused and maybe think you're posting in the wrong forum?

Bass Reeves

schmittel wrote: »

Possibly some of the cohort who bought property between 7 December 2011 and 31 December 2014 and are exempt from CGT.

The exemption is time sensitive as it reduces the longer you hold the property over 7 years. If you think the market will continue to rise that time sensitivity is probably not such a worry.

However if you think the market might fall, it makes a lot of sense to sell sooner rather than later.

First it would be investors only this effects. Most of these investors will have substantial capital appreciation at present. If they consider the downturn long-term yes they may. But if market shift downwards too much they may be reluctant to sell.

It would depend as well on there requirement for cash. If they saw a better opportunity they might have. However as the market in Dublin has stabilized since 2018 many may already have exited.

Later purchasers who bought in 2013/14 may sit out this downturn and the allowance would be beneficial in next upturn.

The relief dose not reduce. You divide the CG by number of years you own the house and are allowed 7 years of it tax exempt

[Deleted User]

addaword wrote: »

I know many if not all properties were woth less in Jan 2020 than in 2007.
In 2007, someone calling a 13 year long decrease in prices would have been declared mad.
Now the world has changed utterly due to the pandemic, brexit, huge rise in national debt, the rise of the left and other factors, a 10 year long decrease in prices is far from impossible imho.

That’s what tends to happen when a housing bubble bursts, but we were not in a housing bubble. There is no oversupply and easy credit. Therefore it’s a very different situation to 2008.

addaword

Dav010 wrote: »

That’s what tends to happen when a housing bubble bursts, but we were not in a housing bubble. There is no oversupply and easy credit. Therefore it’s a very different situation to 2008.

Ah, "this time it is different".

We were told that in 2006 too.

Property prices reflect supply and demand.

Snow Garden

eagle eye wrote: »

You don't be rude, I'm well entitled to voice my opinion on what might happen.

Yes you are entitled to tell someone they have 'reading comprehension difficulties' because they don't accept your badly made point. You are entitled to do so but it makes you look like a child. A rude child.

You did not reply to my similar response. I am not sure why. I guess you realised it was a badly made point and decided to become defensive. That is also your prerogative.

Good day Sir.

coolshannagh28

I offloaded a property in August last year and now feel that was the top of the market , eventually got it closed just before Christmas after a small renegotiation but the market had softened considerably by then and regret not getting rid of another one. The unknown unknowns out there now would make property a liability for at least 5 years , Ireland has become a tricky market in this line of investment and a lot will depend on the reaction of the big US money here since 2012.

[Deleted User]

addaword wrote: »

Ah, "this time it is different".

We were told that in 2006 too.

Property prices reflect supply and demand.

This time it is different to anything that has gone before, every economist is saying that. Where recessions historically were due to fiscal mismanagement or conflict, this is due to neither, so we have to see if the sound principles economies were built on after the last recession will help to recover from this unprecedented shock.

Bass Reeves

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I offloaded a property in August last year and now feel that was the top of the market , eventually got it closed just before Christmas after a small renegotiation but the market had softened considerably by then and regret not getting rid of another one. The unknown unknowns out there now would make property a liability for at least 5 years , Ireland has become a tricky market in this line of investment and a lot will depend on the reaction of the big US money here since 2012.

What was it's yield, where do you intend to reinvest the money.

Snow Garden

Dav010 wrote: »

That’s what tends to happen when a housing bubble bursts, but we were not in a housing bubble. There is no oversupply and easy credit. Therefore it’s a very different situation to 2008.

That could change very quickly e.g. AirBnB reverting, Emigration, Landlords selling up, Inheritance properties, Construction etc etc.

Demand will certainly reduce.

Mon1239

At the moment, it's pretty safe to say that anyone claiming to know how much the price of property will go down/up is guessing. However, a quick look at the data from Property Price Register and some key factors that impact property price such as 'country unemployment rate' you can see that some trends are already beginning to take shape.

Attachment not found.

Unemployment rate in Ireland now stands at 28.2% (CSO) and of this almost 30%, many are within the age bracket of FTB. This will inevitably affect the TAM (Total Addressable Market) for any potential property sellers. It doesn't matter how much you think your property is worth, it is only worth what the TAM is willing to pay and the TAM has dramatically reduced in the last 2 months, shifting the game so that it is now more likely a buyer's marker than a seller's market.

Most FTB are couples. If even one of the 2 parties is in the 30% mentioned above then the chances of the bank allowing a mortgage drawdown are dramatically reduced. Where does that leave many of those couples? They will have no choice but to continue to wait for the market to re-stabilise and this will inevitably affect developer's sales.

eagle eye

Snow Garden wrote:

Yes you are entitled to tell someone they have 'reading comprehension difficulties' because they don't accept your badly made point. You are entitled to do so but it makes you look like a child. A rude child.

He accused me of being of planning to carry out actions which was never said.

Snow Garden wrote:

You did not reply to my similar response. I am not sure why. I guess you realised it was a badly made point and decided to become defensive. That is also your prerogative.

Obviously I missed your reply. Badly made? I just made a prediction and its something I'd love to see happen. I'm interested to see if a multi-national can be brought to it's knees by public opinion.

smurgen

Snow Garden wrote: »

That could change very quickly e.g. AirBnB reverting, Emigration, Landlords selling up, Inheritance properties, Construction etc etc.

Demand will certainly reduce.

And the lack of international students.
For example can't see too many forking out for alot of the new high end accommodations.like this one in cork just finished with a cost of 1k a month.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/beamish-and-crawford-site-student-accommodation-to-cost-1k-a-month-984468.html

Snow Garden

smurgen wrote: »

And the lack of international students.
For example can't see too many forking out for alot of the new high end accommodations.like this one in cork just finished with a cost of 1k a month.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/beamish-and-crawford-site-student-accommodation-to-cost-1k-a-month-984468.html

Correct. The colleges are already in panic mode in relation to the lack of international students. In recent years they have been using rich international students to balance the books. Extravagant books if you know what I mean. A massive new student residence is close to completion near NUIG.

I reckon any Leaving Cert student that filled in a CAO form this year will get their 1st preference

coolshannagh28

Bass Reeves wrote: »

What was it's yield, where do you intend to reinvest the money.

It was a remnant from the tiger era yield 3% , I have very high yielding property (25%) but taxation and volatility takes the good out of it, I m investing in land , they are not making it any more

Snow Garden

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

It was a remnant from the tiger era yield 3% , I have very high yielding property (25%) but taxation and volatility takes the good out of it, I m investing in land , they are not making it any more

All the good land is gone - The smart TDs bought it since 2008 using insider NAMA data. Actually they got their families to buy it for them

Donald Trump

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

It was a remnant from the tiger era yield 3% , I have very high yielding property (25%) but taxation and volatility takes the good out of it, I m investing in land , they are not making it any more

Land will give you a gross return of about ~1.0-1.5% based on it's value in agricultural use.

You'll be 5 years before you pay off the stamp duty. You might get some capital upside of course, but you might also have downside and you could suffer from liquidity issues if you might be in a position where you need the cash in the future.

Buy it if you want it and have a use for it. If you are buying as an investment, I'd say that it would have a part in a diversified portfolio of course. But I wouldn't invest all my money in it if I was a pure "investor".

amyed198

awec wrote: »

This time next year the overwhelming majority of tech workers will be back in their Dublin offices.

OH is working as a Software engineer in a company of 3,500 based in Dublin.

They have been informed the WFH policy has changed to allow for employees to WFH up to 3 days per week for those on a 5 day week and WFH 2 days per week for those on 4-day weeks.

lawred2

amyed198 wrote: »

OH is working as a Software engineer in a company of 3,500 based in Dublin.

They have been informed the WFH policy has changed to allow for employees to WFH up to 3 days per week for those on a 5 day week and WFH 2 days per week for those on 4-day weeks.

Offices will be subject to social distancing which will significantly reduce the occupation density. Could actually push the price of floorspace up.

The Student

All of these discussions are academic if you can't actually get to work. Public transport will not be able to cope with social distancing.

Logistically it will be almost impossible to stagger attendence at work that will ensure it keeps social distancing on public transport.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

I gave my views.re read my posts. As regards the last part of your post I'm confused and maybe think you're posting in the wrong forum?

Your views are amongst the most self serving I've seen posted . I like wfh ergo it's the future and no one will go back to an office

I want to buy a cheaper house therefore we are set for a 10 year long reduction in prices , which will consist in a devaluation of land, huge decrease in costs of raw materials and let's not forget big reductions in wages for those that are involved in the building of houses

If it wasn't so predictably typical it would be funny.

pearcider

Dav010 wrote: »

That’s what tends to happen when a housing bubble bursts, but we were not in a housing bubble. There is no oversupply and easy credit. Therefore it’s a very different situation to 2008.

We are in a housing bubble. House prices have doubled in 8 years. Rents have more than doubled. Incomes have risen around 15%.

Let’s not forget we have 200 billion of sovereign debt now, any significant rise in bond rates and we are bankrupt. In 2008 our debt was like 40 billion. If turmoil returns to the bond markets and the federal reserve loses control we are in a precarious position. We could be looking at widespread sovereign defaults over the next two years and the break up of the euro.

The United States is a huge risk for Ireland and they are looking at a 4 trillion deficit this year and their economy is very important for us...last year in the other topic, I speculated that the next recession would take the US deficit to 2 trillion given that they had a 1 trillion structural deficit with effectively no unemployment. They are looking at 4 trillion now.

Global debt was 250% of gdp in 2008 now its nearly 400%. So the global debt bubble is actually way worse than 2008.