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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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smurgen

awec wrote: »

Not really. What's happening now is that some people are working from home unaffected, while others are "working" from home while simultaneously minding their kids, while others are just no longer working at all.

Employers have basically got to take whatever they can get right now in terms of productivity from employees.

Not saying it won't work, for many companies it'll work just fine, but what we have now is not normal remote working.

We're doing good. I know Google and Facebook have pushed out til December for their employees.must be working pretty well. Also I bet a if we go back to offices a few weeks back doing commutes on the train or and car and people will be snapping the hand off employer to get back to WFH.

Graham

awec wrote: »

Some / most. Nobody knows for sure.

What we can assume is it's more than none. Even a relatively small percentage would start to move the needle in terms of the property market.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

We're doing good. I know Google and Facebook have pushed out til December for their employees.must be working pretty well. Also I bet a if we go back to offices a few weeks back doing commutes on the train or and car and people will be snapping the hand off employer to get back to WFH.

I'm sure many are doing good and many aren't.

Companies haven't got much choice at the moment but to suck it up.

Graham

awec wrote: »

And while it may see a reduction in the top-level average house price thanks to drops in Dublin, areas that have traditionally seen lower property (and land) prices are likely to see increases in such a scenario.

I think you're probably right.

I also think both are probably good things.

smurgen

awec wrote: »

I'm sure many are doing good and many aren't.

Companies haven't got much choice at the moment but to suck it up.

But they will and as I said earlier is a work in progress. The work from home can be refined for both employees and employers. Our eyes have been opened to the possibilities.

smurgen

awec wrote: »

It would be good yes, and a big boost for rural Ireland.

And while it may see a reduction in the top-level average house price thanks to drops in Dublin, areas that have traditionally seen lower property (and land) prices are likely to see increases in such a scenario.

The difference is areas that have lower property prices and land are not a restricted by increased demand as Dublin. Also , last year land fell by 3% and is now at 2017 prices.

Dylan94

I would also imagine that WFH would for the most part only impact on the choice of location for people who aren't originally from Dublin.

In my experience a lot of people from Dublin tend to put more emphasis on purchasing a house near to their parents/childhood homes rather than work? So getting to work from home would not really affect their choice of home.

I would think that if its really only people from outside of Dublin moving back home then it would only take a small amount of people moving to rural Ireland to increase the prices, but it would take a lot more moving from Dublin to reduce the prices.

So you could potentially be left with the prices in Dublin staying more or less as they are and the prices for the rest of the country rising?

Edit: This is just thinking about WFH as a standalone issue. Obviously, prices in Dublin are going to fall. I'm just not sure WFH will have anything to do with it.

smurgen

Dylan94 wrote: »

I would also imagine that WFH would for the most part only impact on the choice of location for people who aren't originally from Dublin.

In my experience a lot of people from Dublin tend to put more emphasis on purchasing a house near to their parents/childhood homes rather than work? So getting to work from home would not really affect their choice of home.

I would think that if its really only people from outside of Dublin moving back home then it would only take a small amount of people moving to rural Ireland to increase the prices, but it would take a lot more moving from Dublin to reduce the prices.

So you could potentially be left with the prices in Dublin staying more or less as they are and the prices for the rest of the country rising?

That's only assuming all other factors stayed static like cost of land and labor which looks doubtful.

Ozark707

"Dylan94 wrote: »

So you could potentially be left with the prices in Dublin staying more or less as they are and the prices for the rest of the country rising?

There are very few people on here who are contending that prices in Dublin won’t drop, the question is by how much.

cnocbui

awec wrote: »

Not really. What's happening now is that some people are working from home unaffected, while others are "working" from home while simultaneously minding their kids, while others are just no longer working at all.

Employers have basically got to take whatever they can get right now in terms of productivity from employees.

Not saying it won't work, for many companies it'll work just fine, but what we have now is not normal remote working.

I hate to bring this up, but when this all dies down and we are out of crisis management mode, there is going to be an almighty clamouring for governments to almost force work from home in order to save the planet from the dreaded CO2.

Many companies won't be able to say it can't be done.

Governments could scale corporation tax on a basis of how close a companies premises were to a capital or major city. The further away, the lower the tax. They could also levy businesses on workers who have desk jobs in corporate premises with no levy if they work from home. They could also scale income tax with a loading for major cities to provide an incentive to not work in them.

You can already see some clamouring from greenies in the media along the lines of preserving some of the CO2 reducing aspects of the crisis.

Coronavirus Holds Key Lessons on How to Fight Climate Change

When the COVID-19 pandemic is past, societies may adopt some important measures that would lower emissions, from more teleconferencing to shortening global supply chains.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/coronavirus-holds-key-lessons-on-how-to-fight-climate-change

Seems to me like low hanging fruit for governments that actually want to address climate issues.

mayo londoner

I really don't see the arguments about how WFH isn't a good thing. Personally I'm loving it, office based 99% of the time but way more productive WFH compared to being in an office listening to melters talking ****e. Unfortunately company I'm working for are ran by dinosaurs and are already pushing hard for a return to office, worrying since I know for a fact with my role that they swept a confirmed COVID case under the carpet without notifying staff.

It's as simple as this, paying 400k+ for a house in Dublin compared to 150-200k in the country is a no brainer, gives people a chance to move back home, care for their parents, play for the local GAA club, reduce commute time and fuel expenses as result, saves annual leave travelling 3+hrs home, even something simple as paying a euro less for a pint, all adds up. I'm much more relaxed since I came home, love my evening walk and opportunity for a beer or two midweek with my parents, spending time with my nieces and nephews, something I'd never get to have if I am in Dublin.

Even if it were a matter or travelling to Dublin for a day in the office once a week it's well worth it, creates more office space for the company and saves a lot of money. If people are happy with their life outside of work they will automatically be happier working away then. Thoughts of having to go into an office every day in Dublin, combined with a commute,travel expenses and the reality of never being able to afford a house in Dublin is very disheartening for a lot of people and obviously effects productivity/motivation levels as a result.

Dylan94

smurgen wrote: »

That's only assuming all other factors stayed static like cost of land and labor which looks doubtful.

Yes I was just thinking of WFH by itself. Prices in Dublin are of course going to fall, I don't however think WFH will have any significant medium/long term affects.

combat14

Looks like very slow return to workplaces in UK, wonder how long it will take here ...

Trades unions tell Johnson: no return to work until we feel safe

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/09/trade-union-leaders-no-return-to-work-health-safety-unison-unite-tuc

Donald Trump

Dylan94 wrote: »

Yes I was just thinking of WFH by itself. Prices in Dublin are of course going to fall, I don't however think WFH will have any significant medium/long term affects.

You also have the more settled couples with a kid or two who might prefer not to bring their kids up in the city.

As things move more in that direction and more roles move to remote, more people will take it up and build it into their plans.

smurgen

Dylan94 wrote: »

Yes I was just thinking of WFH by itself. Prices in Dublin are of course going to fall, I don't however think WFH will have any significant medium/long term affects.

Why?if anything the potential for it won't be fully realised until the national broadband plan is deployed.

MrMusician18

awec wrote: »

I'm sure many are doing good and many aren't.

Companies haven't got much choice at the moment but to suck it up.

But it will only take the many that are too move the market.

No more than the other threads on the various different forums here (travel for example), they're seems to be a cohort of users that have their head completely in the sand about the likely result of the covid crisis. This is more than a once in a generation type crisis, but a once in a century one - the the largest economic crisis since the second world war. It is one and will result in major changes and shifts and at the moment only the direction can be predicted but not their extent. So we know that the economy will contract and that some individual behaviors are likely to be permanently changed by this event.

In a contracting economy, there is less demand for property. All property. Less demand results in lower prices. We are living in suspended animation at the moment but when the thaw comes we will see those businesses that didn't survive and the resultant job losses. This is coming. It's hard to believe (given how horrible the situation is at present) but this is the calm before the storm.

And that's before the crisis showing many skeptical employers about just how well WFH can work. It may be a minority, but there will be some companies looking at the size of their presence in Dublin and their commercial rents and wondering if they're is an opportunity there to shift some of those costs onto the employees. Maintaining a single desk in an office in Dublin for a single employee is over 10x more expensive than providing the IT infrastructure to let them work from home. This may result in some of these employees looking at how much time and money they spend for the pleasure of living in Dublin and wondering if they'd suffer a long commute twice a week over the 5 days a week Dublin bus slog. So this may end up as a minority of a minority but it only takes small shifts in supply and demand to move the property market - and depending on the climate, small shifts result in amplified changes in price.

Tldr. Now is not the time to be bullish on property.

Villa05

awec wrote:

I am going to guess you have no kids and therefore no exposure at all to the realities of childcare.

awec wrote:

Childcare in the greater Dublin region is in the guts of a grand a month per child.

awec wrote:

The people paying this money are the same people buying houses. They are the young, professional first-time-buyer segment of the market.

Your guess would be wrong, what I do have exposure to is reasnobly priced property. Our creche owner signed a long term lease {not one of those BS upward only rent} during the last recession. His staff are paid above the living wage and are the most professional we have come across involved in child/health services. The cost is less than half of the price quoted for Dublin. I'm pretty confident that extortionate property prices are the root cause of that price disparity in childcare costs between 2 cities in the same country

I'm sure those young professionals would be delighted to have that professional care for their children at an affordable price. The problem with Dublin is the more you better yourself the more it costs you. Why? Property

Graham wrote:

Once the initial wave of returning residential properties has passed, so too will any downward pressure on rents.

You not think un/under employmet, loss of foreign students, work from home will affect rents

awec wrote:

The national broadband plan should be one of the very first initiatives on the chopping block when it comes to figuring out how we're going to save money the next few years. What a waste of money.

It's a waste of money because of who's in charge of delivering it,
Bring it to town/village centres, shared cost to anywhere else

Hubertj wrote:

Yes they can but many want to be in office. I work for an MNC - 1100 people in Dublin. Offer to work from home for rest of year as well. Current poll has over 50% want to be back in office environment once childcare, health and safety etc are sorted. Many jobs arenâ€™t possible wfh. WFH suits some but not all. I hate it. Need social interaction... and banter!

Was don't know an option, if close to 50% voted for it, that's a fairly significant vote

awec wrote:

This time next year the overwhelming majority of tech workers will be back in their Dublin offices.

Would tech and I. T. companies be a big benificary of move towards WFH

Dav010 wrote:

Wouldnâ€™t that have an equal effect on the market, all these highly paid employees WFH now looking for rentals/buys elsewhere?

Outside of the cities Dublin, Cork, Galway and most recently Limerick Supply isuues are less of a concern

smurgen

Donald Trump wrote: »

You also have the more settled couples with a kid or two who might prefer not to bring their kids up in the city.

As things move more in that direction and more roles move to remote, more people will take it up and build it into their plans.

Can you honestly see people rushing back to the grim picture painted in this article? If they've a choice? Not only may people opt out of Dublin living they may opt out of Dublin commuter belt living.

https://www.thejournal.ie/a-commuter-town-bursting-at-the-seams-sallins-4984266-Feb2020/

MrMusician18

Donald Trump wrote: »

You also have the more settled couples with a kid or two who might prefer not to bring their kids up in the city.

As things move more in that direction and more roles move to remote, more people will take it up and build it into their plans.

Actually we can look to the past to crystal ball the future regarding this. When the government tried decentralisation, the uptake was low because civil servants families were established in Dublin and/or it wouldn't suit for the partners job. Many of these reasons for people to remain sticky to Dublin will be still there this time around too. Iirc the majority of civil servants that moved were in the 30s bracket, priced out of Dublin with the flexibility to move. The younger didn't want to leave the bright city lights and the older were more established.

smurgen

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Actually we can look to the past to crystal ball the future regarding this. When the government tried decentralisation, the uptake was low because civil servants families were established in Dublin and/or it wouldn't suit for the partners job. Many of these reasons for people to remain sticky to Dublin will be still there this time around too. Iirc the majority of civil servants that moved were in the 30s bracket, priced out of Dublin with the flexibility to move. The younger didn't want to leave the bright city lights and the older were more established.

Dublin at the time the decentralisation was offered was a different beast. Since then commuting times and rent have soared. The potential savings and greater work life balance would be a much bigger pull now.

Donald Trump

smurgen wrote: »

Can you honestly see people rushing back to the grim picture painted in this article? If they've a choice? Not only may people opt out of Dublin living they may opt out of Dublin commuter belt living.

https://www.thejournal.ie/a-commuter-town-bursting-at-the-seams-sallins-4984266-Feb2020/

I'm not sure whether you are somewhat agreeing with me or misunderstood me.

I was not talking about people swapping their house in Blanchardstown for a daily commute from Mullingar to Dublin, I was talking about those people who might be from say, rural Cork, who can get work in a job which can be done remotely and who would prefer to have their kids grow up back in their home area

The concept is far more popular in tech and new companies. I actually know a few so-called "digital nomads" who travel from city to city, and country to country for months at a time while working remotely. Although, from what I understand, the companies do nominally place some restrictions on how far long you can be away from your designated "home" in order to be paid at those "local" rates. (i.e. the company might have a rate for NY workers and a different rate for those from Dublin so if you want to keep getting paid at NY rate, you can't officially move all year round to Dublin)

cnocbui

smurgen wrote: »

Why?if anything the potential for it won't be fully realised until the national broadband plan is deployed.

I have 1000 Mbps FTTH, a fabulous view, dark skies at night so you can actually see stars, no crime, 5 min from an excellent national school and 10 from an excellent secondary school, and an almost pet fox.

300,000 rural houses like mine now have access to FTTH.

Graham

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Actually we can look to the past to crystal ball the future regarding this. When the government tried decentralisation, the uptake was low because civil servants families were established in Dublin and/or it wouldn't suit for the partners job. Many of these reasons for people to remain sticky to Dublin will be still there this time around too.

There's a fairly big difference between "we're moving the Dept to Ballygoflipflop" and "you can work from wherever you like".

OttoPilot

Sorry to any dubs I offended by suggesting your city wasnt worth living in. It is, just not at the significant premium it currently is.

GreeBo

Ozark707 wrote: »

There are very few people on here who are contending that prices in Dublin won’t drop, the question is by how much.

The question is for how long.

GreeBo

cnocbui wrote: »

I hate to bring this up, but when this all dies down and we are out of crisis management mode, there is going to be an almighty clamouring for governments to almost force work from home in order to save the planet from the dreaded CO2.

Many companies won't be able to say it can't be done.

Governments could scale corporation tax on a basis of how close a companies premises were to a capital or major city. The further away, the lower the tax. They could also levy businesses on workers who have desk jobs in corporate premises with no levy if they work from home. They could also scale income tax with a loading for major cities to provide an incentive to not work in them.

You can already see some clamouring from greenies in the media along the lines of preserving some of the CO2 reducing aspects of the crisis.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/coronavirus-holds-key-lessons-on-how-to-fight-climate-change

Seems to me like low hanging fruit for governments that actually want to address climate issues.

The Government is paying 4.5m over just 12 weeks to people who can't work from home.
More than 600,000 people out of the 2.3m workforce

If you think the rest can or will all continue to work from home I think you are badly mistaken.

Companies are extending the work from home because it's not yet safe to return to a office and the logistics and cost of making it safe aren't worth it

GreeBo

cnocbui wrote: »

I have 1000 Mbps FTTH, a fabulous view, dark skies at night so you can actually see stars, no crime, 5 min from an excellent national school and 10 from an excellent secondary school, and an almost pet fox.

300,000 rural houses like mine now have access to FTTH.

What's your choice of hospital like?

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

Can you honestly see people rushing back to the grim picture painted in this article? If they've a choice? Not only may people opt out of Dublin living they may opt out of Dublin commuter belt living.

https://www.thejournal.ie/a-commuter-town-bursting-at-the-seams-sallins-4984266-Feb2020/

Doesn’t sound nice at all. You would also need to consider things like availability of childcare facilities, primary and national schools, suitable property into where you might want to live if WFH becomes a permanent option in your job.
However, on the job front I belive people stay in jobs less these days and happily move to progress their careers. Not all jobs may offer permanent wfh so you then need to travel to office which is generally in urban area. Then what happens if you lose your job?

listermint

GreeBo wrote: »
What's your choice of hospital like?

We are and should be moving to specialised health care units. There are many dotted all over the country.

I'm a dub left 3 years ago. There is two such clinics one 5 minutes away the other 20 mins away.

Left Dublin to get away from living on top of people. I had no appetite to stare into someone else's back window from my own.

You shouldn't take offence to people's choices, I've a better quality of life where I am.

Ozark707

GreeBo wrote: »

The question is for how long.

In the last recession there was a prevalent mindset at the outset that 'Irish property does not go down in value', so in effect it was a death by a thousand cuts. Lots of people followed the market down and ended up selling at a very low price instead of cutting their price earlier and possibly then exiting the market. This time around no one in the right mind believes it is not possible for huge drops in property prices so if there are eager sellers they might try and get ahead of the curve. If this is the case then I don't expect whatever correction will come to take as long.