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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Graham

awec wrote: »

Some / most. Nobody knows for sure.

What we can assume is it's more than none. Even a relatively small percentage would start to move the needle in terms of the property market.

smurgen

awec wrote: »

Not really. What's happening now is that some people are working from home unaffected, while others are "working" from home while simultaneously minding their kids, while others are just no longer working at all.

Employers have basically got to take whatever they can get right now in terms of productivity from employees.

Not saying it won't work, for many companies it'll work just fine, but what we have now is not normal remote working.

We're doing good. I know Google and Facebook have pushed out til December for their employees.must be working pretty well. Also I bet a if we go back to offices a few weeks back doing commutes on the train or and car and people will be snapping the hand off employer to get back to WFH.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

Why because you don't like it? Less commuting , less traffic, less pollution.
And it's exactly what's happening now by the way.no need for futurism.

Not really. What's happening now is that some people are working from home unaffected, while others are "working" from home while simultaneously minding their kids, while others are just no longer working at all.

Employers have basically got to take whatever they can get right now in terms of productivity from employees.

Not saying it won't work, for many companies it'll work just fine, but what we have now is not normal remote working.

GreeBo

smurgen wrote: »

Why because you don't like it? Less commuting , less traffic, less pollution.
And it's exactly what's happening now by the way.no need for futurism.

No, because it's not feasible long term for the vast, vast majority of people. How many families will it only suit 1 working parent? Then what?

What's happening right now is that companies are surviving with people working from home, they are not thriving.

Sure, some start can work from home, the people who get work given to them to go off and do. Junior developers, junior accountants etc. But the rest of the business needs more than that.

smurgen

GreeBo wrote: »

Land prices might fall, but the cost of building a green house is much more than otherwise. The cost of retrofitting an old house to green standards is significant. None of that will lower house prices.

Labor cost will come down. There won't be building booms in other countries this time.oz is gone and Canada too. We'll probably have a return of Irish builders and tradesmen.

awec

Graham wrote: »

Spreading a small percentage from Dublin around the country would be much easier to absorb/accommodate and would have other knock-on benefits for regional economies.

It would be good yes, and a big boost for rural Ireland.

And while it may see a reduction in the top-level average house price thanks to drops in Dublin, areas that have traditionally seen lower property (and land) prices are likely to see increases in such a scenario.

smurgen

GreeBo wrote: »

But we are agreed already that typically the large cohorts of people who can work from home are well paid STEM jobs.
These are the people with all the money.
They are either living nearby work and so don't have s painful commute or live further away and so don't need to commute if working from home.

The idea that working from home long term is going to be significant across all sectors and that on top of that swathes of people are going to up sticks and move county baffles me

It's like some futuristic scenario from a film, a bad film.

Why because you don't like it? Less commuting , less traffic, less pollution.
And it's exactly what's happening now by the way.no need for futurism.

Bass Reeves

awec wrote: »

If it happens then demand for housing in Dublin will drop, which at the very least will slow the housing market in Dublin.

The market in Dublin (and commuter belt) has always been in it's own bubble due to the huge demand.

If you are of the mind that this demand is made up of a significant number of reluctant buyers who would rather live elsewhere then you'd be of the mind that in the event of mass changes to working practices that prices in Dublin would fall.

And of course, prices elsewhere would rise. Quite quickly

This is the factor that most fail to grasp with WFH. If WFH allows people to virtually live anywhere(in reality it will not) then people can live anywhere. The fact sub 30% of work is achievable from home. Nurses, guards, soldiers, firefighters, construction workers, drug dealers, burglers, car thieves etc etc etc will not be able to work from home. Even for those that can expectations will be that they will be in the office 2-3 times a week. You also have to factor in that in the case of couple it is unlikly that both will have jobs that allow them to WFH.

But even if it was true if suddenly that 30% could pick where they choose to live house prices in smaller towns and villages would climb as would building costs in these area's.

GreeBo

smurgen wrote: »

On top of possible long term job losses? The world is heading for a recession.if there is a second wave of Covid in the US and UK all bets are off. This is already on the back of us at the top of the economic cycle at the end of last year. Also the value of land is falling. I personally believe the green economic movement that will continue over the foreseeable future making a change in how we farm etc will drive the cost of land down further.

Land prices might fall, but the cost of building a green house is much more than otherwise. The cost of retrofitting an old house to green standards is significant. None of that will lower house prices.

Ozark707

awec wrote: »

Will cause Dublin (and commuter belt) prices to reduce.

It would almost certainly cause prices elsewhere to rise. Other counties, on a smaller scale, would experience what Dublin and surrounding counties have experienced for the past 5 or 6 years in terms of housing in the event of a shift of housing demand from the current areas of demand.

Well if Covid is going to cause issues throughout the economy I can't see the regions being unaffected (albeit to a lesser extent if there is internal migration). Either way this would be an overall positive for Ireland Inc.

GreeBo

awec wrote: »

Will cause Dublin (and commuter belt) prices to reduce.

It would almost certainly cause prices elsewhere to rise. Other counties, on a smaller scale, would experience what Dublin and surrounding counties have experienced for the past 5 or 6 years in terms of housing in the event of a shift of housing demand from the current areas of demand.

So Dublin prices reduce... And you don't think that will cause people to move closer to the city? Those that can't work from home or otherwise want to live in the city?
Couple that with other counties riding prices seems to me you just made s great case for people to move to Dublin...aka demand.

Graham

awec wrote: »

Will cause Dublin (and commuter belt) prices to reduce.

It would almost certainly cause prices elsewhere to rise. Other counties, on a smaller scale, would experience what Dublin and surrounding counties have experienced for the past 5 or 6 years in terms of housing in the event of a shift of housing demand from the current areas of demand.

Spreading a small percentage from Dublin around the country would be much easier to absorb/accommodate and would have other knock-on benefits for regional economies.

GreeBo

awec wrote: »

If it happens then demand for housing in Dublin will drop, which at the very least will slow the housing market in Dublin.

The market in Dublin (and commuter belt) has always been in it's own bubble due to the huge demand.

If you are of the mind that this demand is made up of a significant number of reluctant buyers who would rather live elsewhere then you'd be of the mind that in the event of mass changes to working practices that prices in Dublin would fall.

And of course, prices elsewhere would rise. Quite quickly.

But we are agreed already that typically the large cohorts of people who can work from home are well paid STEM jobs.
These are the people with all the money.
They are either living nearby work and so don't have s painful commute or live further away and so don't need to commute if working from home.

The idea that working from home long term is going to be significant across all sectors and that on top of that swathes of people are going to up sticks and move county baffles me

It's like some futuristic scenario from a film, a bad film.

awec

Ozark707 wrote: »

This.

As someone pointed out this evening on this thread prices are set at the margin so even 'some' leaving will cause prices to reduce.

Will cause Dublin (and commuter belt) prices to reduce.

It would almost certainly cause prices elsewhere to rise. Other counties, on a smaller scale, would experience what Dublin and surrounding counties have experienced for the past 5 or 6 years in terms of housing in the event of a shift of housing demand from the current areas of demand.

Ozark707

Graham wrote: »

The significant omission there is "some".

This.

As someone pointed out this evening on this thread prices are set at the margin so even 'some' leaving will cause prices to reduce.

awec

Graham wrote: »

The significant omission there is "some".

Some / most. Nobody knows for sure.

smurgen

GreeBo wrote: »

These are all great ideas you are throwing about, I just don't see any link to significant changes in property prices.

On top of possible long term job losses? The world is heading for a recession.if there is a second wave of Covid in the US and UK all bets are off. This is already on the back of us at the top of the economic cycle at the end of last year. Also the value of land is falling. I personally believe the green economic movement that will continue over the foreseeable future making a change in how we farm etc will drive the cost of land down further.

Ozark707

GreeBo wrote: »

These are all great ideas you are throwing about, I just don't see any link to significant changes in property prices.

It will be interesting to see if any of this plays out. It would be great for the regions if they could get people moving to them in a way that decentralisation was not able to achieve. Where I work I think a few people will leave as it made no sense for them to be in Dublin in the first place and they have now been WFH for two months now with no issues. One of them said there is no point in him paying 400 a month for a room in a shared house for four nights a week any longer.

Graham

awec wrote: »

Because people like living and working in Dublin?

The significant omission there is "some".

awec

GreeBo wrote: »

These are all great ideas you are throwing about, I just don't see any link to significant changes in property prices.

If it happens then demand for housing in Dublin will drop, which at the very least will slow the housing market in Dublin.

The market in Dublin (and commuter belt) has always been in it's own bubble due to the huge demand.

If you are of the mind that this demand is made up of a significant number of reluctant buyers who would rather live elsewhere then you'd be of the mind that in the event of mass changes to working practices with meaningful numbers of workers permanently working from home that prices in Dublin would fall.

And of course, prices elsewhere would rise. Quite quickly.

MrMusician18

cnocbui wrote: »

Once again, Supply and demand. 95% of the apartments built in Dublin in 2019 were sold to institutions, who then rent them. 21,000 houses were built, but only 8,000 were available for sale. Demand and prices may fall in the short term, but I doubt it will be a 10 year decline.

In 10 years hopefully the next business cycle will be in full flow and Covid is just a horrible memory. The real debate is where the market goes in the next year to two years. The direction downwards has been set, but the steepness of the fall will be determined by the permanent damage to the economy and that remains unknown. But it will be damaged, tourism will be written off for this year which alone accounts for 6.2% of the economy.

GreeBo

smurgen wrote: »

Here's another one. How about companies not wanting to pay for expensive buildings instead opting for smaller ones with hot desks in more strategic locations? Or being able to pay staff less wages as they're no longer confined to Dublin?

These are all great ideas you are throwing about, I just don't see any link to significant changes in property prices.

Ozark707

Padre_Pio wrote: »

The only benefit I found to living in a city is you're close to a pub and it's easy to go drinking.

That's it. Literally. I live in the country and going out is a pain, but other than that my life is much better Have shops, pubs and cinema within 5 min drive. Online shopping negates any need to go into a city centre during the day. Might head in once every 2 or 3 months for clothes.

Of course others have wildly different opinions.

Well if enough people move out then renting/buying in Dublin should get a whole lot cheaper for those who like being close to a pub

GreeBo

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why would anyone be glad to be back in an office in dublin? Two hours a day commuting plus the extra expense. I'm mid twenties and I work in an accounting firm. None of my colleagues want to return to the office. Most have returned to their home counties if they were renting in Dublin.

Not everyone is commuting for 2 hours or anything near it.
If they were then they aren't living in our near the city and so we wouldn't have s housing shortage.

awec

Padre_Pio wrote: »

The only benefit I found to living in a city is you're close to a pub and it's easy to go drinking.

That's it. Literally. I live in the country and going out is a pain, but other than that my life is much better

Good for you.

The urban vs rural lifestyle on here has been discussed to the death, don't think it needs to be rehashed all over again.

Urban lifestyle is very attractive to many. Particularly young professionals, especially in certain sectors.

Padre_Pio

awec wrote: »

Because people like living and working in Dublin?

The only benefit I found to living in a city is you're close to a pub and it's easy to go drinking.

That's it. Literally. I live in the country and going out is a pain, but other than that my life is much better

Have shops, pubs and cinema within 5 min drive. Online shopping negates any need to go into a city centre during the day. Might head in once every 2 or 3 months for clothes.

Of course others have wildly different opinions.

smurgen

GreeBo wrote: »

Have what family to mind the kids?!

I don't see working from home being the silvery bullet that you do I'm afraid

Here's another one. How about companies not wanting to pay for expensive buildings instead opting for smaller ones with hot desks in more strategic locations? Or being able to pay staff less wages as they're no longer confined to Dublin?

awec

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why would anyone be glad to be back in an office in dublin? Two hours a day commuting plus the extra expense. I'm mid twenties and I work in an accounting firm. None of my colleagues want to return to the office. Most have returned to their home counties if they were renting in Dublin.

Because people like living and working in Dublin?

cnocbui

smurgen wrote: »

Show me evidence for your stance what factors will ensure prices maintain or escalate?I couldn't say. Who could calculate? I gave my factors for why I think factors keeping house prices high maintained are now gone.

Once again, Supply and demand. 95% of the apartments built in Dublin in 2019 were sold to institutions, who then rent them. 21,000 houses were built, but only 8,000 were available for sale. Demand and prices may fall in the short term, but I doubt it will be a 10 year decline.

smurgen

OttoPilot wrote: »

Why would anyone be glad to be back in an office in dublin? Two hours a day commuting plus the extra expense. I'm mid twenties and I work in an accounting firm. None of my colleagues want to return to the office. Most have returned to their home counties if they were renting in Dublin.

People can't wait to get back paying for 7 euro pints and eating in overpriced restaurants. And they will pay extortionate rents to be able to do so. Their eyes have definitely not been opened to alternative ways of living. That's for sure.