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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Bass Reeves

Cyrus wrote: »

prices will fall for the next 10 years ? Sorry it's never going to happen . Humour me, a 1m euro house in Dublin what do you think it'll be worth in 10 years time given these price drops

I wonder what age these guys are that are predicting this doom and gloom. I wonder how muchch property these guys own. Did many wait too long during last recession and get caught on the upturn

smurgen

Hubertj wrote: »

I would be interested to hear what would cause prices to fall for 10 years? Other clowns on here said prices will have dropped by 30% by end of summer.

The inputs for housing getting cheaper and cheaper. How we as a society view housing. The roll out of broadband country wide and the real time working from home process being developed and perfected right now. This is all off the back of house prices already starting to fall at the end of this year.i believed a correction was coming anyway now due to how the world has forced to adapt has forever devalued our idea of property. I think the genie is out of the bottle.

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

What percentage of rental properties are on the market at any one time?

My point was that people with 2k a month creche bills would not be prime mortgage candidates, it would be unlikely that they would be driving the property market forward. I'm not sure how you deducted the above from my post

Assuming rent at 1500 a month maybe 2000. A couple would be down 5k gross income before they opened there eyes on the first day of the month

I am going to guess you have no kids and therefore no exposure at all to the realities of childcare.

Childcare in the greater Dublin region is in the guts of a grand a month per child.

The people paying this money are the same people buying houses. They are the young, professional first-time-buyer segment of the market.

Bass Reeves

smurgen wrote: »

The inputs for housing getting cheaper and cheaper.

Definitely Cuckoo land

[Deleted User]

smurgen wrote: »

The inputs for housing getting cheaper and cheaper. How we as a society view housing. The roll out of broadband country wide and the real time working from home process being developed and perfected right now. This is all off the back of house prices already starting to fall at the end of this year.i believed a correction was coming anyway now due to how the world has forced to adapt has forever devalued or idea of property. I think the genie is out of the bottle.

Working from home is only possible for those who can work from home, broadband isn’t much use to someone whose job doesn’t rely solely on a computer.

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

The inputs for housing getting cheaper and cheaper. How we as a society view housing. The roll out of broadband country wide and the real time working from home process being developed and perfected right now. This is all off the back of house prices already starting to fall at the end of this year.i believed a correction was coming anyway now due to how the world has forced to adapt has forever devalued or idea of property. I think the genie is out of the bottle.

Some interesting notions/ideals there but that’s all they are. Which inputs will fall in price? Some raw materials probably would. What about salaries in construction - with a recession I presume there will be reductions short to medium term. What about VAT etc? WFH is an option for some but many people prefer and want an office environment. Many people want to live in urban areas. I would like house prices to be cheaper so more people could afford to buy their own homes but a 10 year fall sounds way off in my opinion

awec

The national broadband plan should be one of the very first initiatives on the chopping block when it comes to figuring out how we're going to save money the next few years. What a waste of money.

Graham

smurgen wrote: »

The inputs for housing getting cheaper and cheaper..

I'm not sure that's likely in the short-term given the massive disruptions to global supply chains. If anything I'd say there's potential for input costs to increase unless accompanied by savings on the labour side of the inputs.

smurgen

Dav010 wrote: »

Working from home is only possible for those who can work from home, broadband isn’t much use to someone whose job doesn’t rely solely on a computer.

Alot of high paying jobs can like tech and finance e.g Google and Facebook WFH for the rest of the year.

[Deleted User]

Graham wrote: »

I'm not sure that's likely in the short-term given the massive disruptions to global supply chains. If anything I'd say there's potential for input costs to increase unless accompanied by savings on the labour side of the inputs.

Not to mention if the tree huggers get into Government, zoning and planning won’t get easier when they are involved.

smurgen

Graham wrote: »

I'm not sure that's likely in the short-term given the massive disruptions to global supply chains. If anything I'd say there's potential for input costs to increase unless accompanied by savings on the labour side of the inputs.

This is why I said long term.i think they'll be a short and medium term drop in prices also.

Graham

Dav010 wrote: »

Not to mention if the tree huggers get into Government, zoning and planning won’t get easier when they are involved.

Unless they propose growing our own houses in window-boxes. I understand reeds are great for construction.

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

Alot of high paying jobs can like tech and finance e.g Google and Facebook WFH for the rest of the year.

Yes they can but many want to be in office. I work for an MNC - 1100 people in Dublin. Offer to work from home for rest of year as well. Current poll has over 50% want to be back in office environment once childcare, health and safety etc are sorted. Many jobs aren’t possible wfh. WFH suits some but not all. I hate it. Need social interaction... and banter!

[Deleted User]

smurgen wrote: »

Alot of high paying jobs can like tech and finance e.g Google and Facebook WFH for the rest of the year.

Out of necessity, let’s see what happens by year end. It will be difficult for anyone involved in construction, manufacturing, education, healthcare, retail, leisure etc to work from home. And as another poster said, a lot of those high paid employees want to live in the city.

awec

This time next year the overwhelming majority of tech workers will be back in their Dublin offices.

Graham

awec wrote: »

This time next year the overwhelming majority of tech workers will be back in their Dublin offices.

I'm not so sure.

Even a 10% - 20% shift to remote working would be a fairly seismic change for the property market.

[Deleted User]

Graham wrote: »

I'm not so sure.

Even a 10% - 20% shift to remote working would be a fairly seismic change for the property market.

Unless they work from home in their rented accommodation. A 20-something enjoying city life may not find moving back to Hicksville appealing. Where do they go if they leave the city, back home to mom and pop? All these techies moving out of rentals to work at home have to live somewhere.

Graham

Dav010 wrote: »

Unless they work from home in their rented accommodation. A 20-something enjoying city life may not find moving back to Hicksville appealing.

That's probably accurate.

I suspect many companies have staff who are not in their 20s.

In my 20s I was delighted with an apartment with a view of O'Connel Bridge. I wouldn't be the same now.

[Deleted User]

Graham wrote: »

That's probably accurate.

I suspect many companies have staff who are not in their 20s.

Where do they live if they leave their rentals?

Graham

Dav010 wrote: »

Where do they live if they leave their rentals?

Move to other rentals, buy property. The nice thing about WFH is you don't necessarily need to be within commuting distance of the office or even in the same county/country.

While many can't wait to return back to open-plan nirvana, a sizeable chunk of employers and employees will now be seeing the potential for longer-term/permanent WFH.

Donald Trump

Dav010 wrote: »

Unless they work from home in their rented accommodation. A 20-something enjoying city life may not find moving back to Hicksville appealing. Where do they go if they leave the city, back home to mom and pop? All these techies moving out of rentals to work at home have to live somewhere.

I'd say there are plenty of these "hicksville" denizens who wouldn't mind living at home if more of their buddies are going to be around.

Roll out of bed at 8:30, log into their laptop so that they are working and pour themselves a bowl of cornflakes. Come 5 or 5:30 they can log off, and head down training back with their buddies in the local GAA club. It might be preferable to getting up at 7am to get ready for the office and then commuting in for 30 mins from their house share in Rathmines to the city centre before finally getting back in the evening around 7pm.

[Deleted User]

Graham wrote: »

Move to other rentals, buy property. The nice thing about WFH is you don't necessarily need to be within commuting distance of the office or even in the same county/country.

While many can't wait to return back to open-plan nirvana, a sizeable chunk of employers and employees will now be seeing the potential for longer-term/permanent WFH.

Wouldn’t that have an equal effect on the market, all these highly paid employees WFH now looking for rentals/buys elsewhere?

Graham

Dav010 wrote: »

Wouldn’t that have an equal effect on the market, all these highly paid employees WFH now looking for rentals/buys elsewhere?

It would certainly move some of the demand away from central Dublin and spread it around more. Not necessarily a bad thing for a multitude of reasons.

GreeBo

Cyrus wrote: »

prices will fall for the next 10 years ? Sorry it's never going to happen . Humour me, a 1m euro house in Dublin what do you think it'll be worth in 10 years time given these price drops

1.5 easy

GreeBo

smurgen wrote: »

Alot of high paying jobs can like tech and finance e.g Google and Facebook WFH for the rest of the year.

These people don't have an issue trying to find a house though... They are not buying 3 bed semi d s in Kildare for 300k.

smurgen

GreeBo wrote: »

These people don't have an issue trying to find a house though... They are not buying 3 bed semi d s in Kildare for 300k.

It's all had a knock on effect. Falls in one part of the market will leak into other parts.

smurgen

awec wrote: »

I am going to guess you have no kids and therefore no exposure at all to the realities of childcare.

Childcare in the greater Dublin region is in the guts of a grand a month per child.

The people paying this money are the same people buying houses. They are the young, professional first-time-buyer segment of the market.

This would be another factor for people who can work from home and visit the office every two weeks or so to do so. You wouldn't have to pay extortion in house prices to live within distance from your Dublin office and you'd have family that could mind kids for you also at a fraction of the cost.

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

prices will fall for the next 10 years ? Sorry it's never going to happen . Humour me, a 1m euro house in Dublin what do you think it'll be worth in 10 years time given these price drops

Show me evidence for your stance what factors will ensure prices maintain or escalate?I couldn't say. Who could calculate? I gave my factors for why I think factors keeping house prices high maintained are now gone.

GreeBo

smurgen wrote: »

It's all had a knock on effect. Falls in one part of the market will leak into other parts.

What's causing the falls though?
The idea that week paid employee's working from home will do prices makes no sense to me.

They are mostly either young and want to live in the city or older and have lives and children established.

What percentage are going to up root their families out of Dublin? These people have lots of money remember... They live where she how they want.

GreeBo

smurgen wrote: »

This would be another factor for people who can work from home and visit the office every two weeks or so to do so. You wouldn't have to pay extortion in house prices to live within distance from your Dublin office and you'd have family that could mind kids for you also at a fraction of the cost.

Have what family to mind the kids?!

I don't see working from home being the silvery bullet that you do I'm afraid