tastyt wrote: » So there seems to be a general consensus that property prices will drop, anywhere between 10 - 30 percent depending on how severe you think it will be. My question is, why isn’t is happening already when we are in the worst of the crisis and probably the highest number of people unemployed? When do people expect these price drops to actually happen and what will be the catalyst? I’m just trying to understand why prices would drop more after the lockdown and crisis is over, and people are back to work more than they have dropped during the crisis ?
Round Cable wrote: » That's the thing, the Irish property market is not like the stock market, where a company's value can fall 50% in a day if they reported unexpected bad results. With property, the prices keep rising until they hit a peak, and then keep falling until they hit a trough, and they can stagnate around the peak and trough for significant periods. During the great recession, beginning in 2007, it took 4-5 years for the Irish property market to bottom out.
The Belly wrote: » cant compare then to now.
Round Cable wrote: » I never said that you could. The point is that when the property market swings towards a fall, it will not bottom out overnight.
fliball123 wrote: » a lot of the people losing their job would not of been in a position to buy ie hospitality and retail are hardly high paid
smndly wrote: If GDP is significantly higher than servicing the debt after the recovery it will essentially result in the slow erosion of the debt as the economy grows - provided we don't take on loads more debt...
SozBbz wrote: 1. Ireland was one of the most effected countries in the world, so it was particularly severe for us. 2. We had a perfect storm in terms of our housing bubble being right at the top at the same time that world markets collapsed. 3. There was a moral hazard argument against anything but austerity. The system was built on sand and propping it up with all the underlying issues would never have rooted out all the bad apples (soz for the mixed metaphors).
Graham wrote: While NAMA definitely softened the blow by soaking up some of the excess that didn't happen immediately. There was a significant period where developers were trying to offload new builds at anything upto 50% discounts to the original asking prices.
Hubertj wrote: Disagree with you on emigration. some will be able to but nowhere near the numbers like last time.
Hubertj wrote: I think you are overusing the word collapse..... are you assuming no stimulus into economy from government + EU?
JimmyVik wrote: » Anyone who was in a position to buy but has lost their job will not get a mortgage.
Villa05 wrote: » A big part of our gdp figures is aircraft leasing and other transactions. This is gone for some time Dublin certainly looks like it was at the top of a price cycle with prices plateauing from Oct 2018 The collapse didn't happen immediately it took 4 years to find the bottom well after Nama had hoovered up the excess You'd be surprised we'll run countries will be running stimulus programs to kick start economies Collapse was in response to a poster believing people strategically defaulting on mortgages was a positive for house prices.
Blueshoe wrote: » I'm a waiting 90% cash buyer for a small apartment in the Midlands. I can tell you that the available stock and suitable choices are few and far between. There is very little on the market Poor availability and over priced properties.
Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: » Few friends of mine who are mortgage approved and still have their jobs are now very keen to get into the market before they lose their jobs etc. Wonder if there is many in this boat, could lead to one final market pump in the short term?
landofthetree wrote: » Apart from Social developments I cant remember the last new build apartments Ive seen in the midlands.
Blueshoe wrote: » Exactly. There is very little that is suitable for me for sale. No shortage of BerF 50 year old houses though. Any apartments that are for sale are overpriced at the minute in comparison to other parts of the country in my opinion. But people need places to live and with a small stock people will pay more than the next guy. Nothing will change in this situation
GreeBo wrote: » The real question isnt will prices fall or even how far will they fall, its how long to recover. All things considered, ignoring obvious outliers, house prices will always rise over time due to demand outstripping supply. If you are going to buy you need to decide for yourself how much it will cost to keep renting, the value you put on owning a home rather than renting and the opportunity you are faced with (assuming you have a property in mind) If you are selling its similar enough, if you are in no rush to sell then arguably do nothing. If you are in a rush then ask yourself how long do you think it will be before prices are back where they are/were. what will it cost you to wait that long. What are the prices of your next property going to do and whats the net gain/loss in the difference. Unless you are buying a gasworks apartment for 2M or a 1 bed apartment in Ticknock for 800K then chances are in a couple of years prices will be right back where they were when you bought. Arguably you shouldnt be buying any property that you think will not rise in value. If you are going to buy it anyway and dont care about an increase in value, then you should just uy it anyway and not worry about prices going up or down. TL;DR Buy now, the ladder only goes one way long term.
combat14 wrote: » Buy now, unless you are on the cusp of losing your job, and that is hard to say at the minute for a lot of workers out there...
GreeBo wrote: » buy now if you can buy now, obviously.
combat14 wrote: » if they are that worried about losing their jobs.... why would they go take on the additional debt/responsibility of a mortgage with that degree uncertainty hanging over them? guess banks are thinking the same... hence the increasing restrictions on who they are lending to .. ultimately any cut back or restriction in lending will dampen prices ...
GreeBo wrote: » Unless you are buying a gasworks apartment for 2M or a 1 bed apartment in Ticknock for 800K then chances are in a couple of years prices will be right back where they were when you bought. TL;DR Buy now, the ladder only goes one way long term.
schmittel wrote: » tell that to people who bought in 2007!
combat14 wrote: » We mourn the loss of once-great Bewley's cafe but it failed because it simply wasn't good enoughhttps://m.independent.ie/opinion/we-mourn-the-loss-of-once-great-bewleys-cafe-but-it-failed-because-it-simply-wasnt-good-enough-39189080.html Was Bewleys not good enough...? Or simply was the 1,500,000 euro rent too damn high?! McDonalds on the same street thought so .. In 2014 they got their 1.15m rent on the same street reduced to a more reasonable €600,000 per year... is it time that property landlords share some of the pain during the covid crisis before there is a reduction of shops for workers to return to.....?!
combat14 wrote: » McDonalds on the same street thought so .. In 2014 they got their 1.15m rent on the same street reduced to a more reasonable €600,000 per year...
ittakestwo wrote: » Or Ireland loses corporation tax advantage and it never recovers. We were a second world country in the 80's before the corporation tax advantage, then we become one of the richest country's because of one tax incentive. What else do we have to justify being one of the richest countries in the world? Ever watch the film Trading Places, I often think that is what the world is doing to Ireland, just they have not pulled the plug yet... easy come easy go. I certainly would not be taking out a 90% mortgage for 20+ years on the pretenses we will always have this wealth.
