Round Cable wrote: » That's the thing, the Irish property market is not like the stock market, where a company's value can fall 50% in a day if they reported unexpected bad results. With property, the prices keep rising until they hit a peak, and then keep falling until they hit a trough, and they can stagnate around the peak and trough for significant periods. During the great recession, beginning in 2007, it took 4-5 years for the Irish property market to bottom out.
tastyt wrote: » So there seems to be a general consensus that property prices will drop, anywhere between 10 - 30 percent depending on how severe you think it will be. My question is, why isn’t is happening already when we are in the worst of the crisis and probably the highest number of people unemployed? When do people expect these price drops to actually happen and what will be the catalyst? I’m just trying to understand why prices would drop more after the lockdown and crisis is over, and people are back to work more than they have dropped during the crisis ?
Padre_Pio wrote: » While these are still needed, there's a lot on the way. Bord Pleanala are still approving projects, 240 houses in Cobh got PP last month. IT estimates 60,000 homes under construction right now, of which 22,000 are due to finish this year.https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/coronavirus-halts-building-of-60-000-homes-in-ireland-1.4230460
ittakestwo wrote: » Extra population will only create demand if the people have jobs. There will be less people working in 2021 than there was in 2019. So demand from people with no jobs does stop property prices from falling. A lot of property maybe be sold off plans, but if it comes to the time to draw down the mortgage and the buyer has lost their job they cant go ahead with the purchase.
fliball123 wrote: » By the time they are built there will be extra people and therefore extra houses needed on top, I cannot see 60k new houses being built in the next 12 months at a stretch and if the gov prioritise maybe 24 months but surely the money will be needed else where
The_Conductor wrote: » A massive bandaid- originally formed as a manner of getting the cost of providing social housing off the state's books. Unfortunately the wheels came off that cart when Eurostat refused to enumerate Clúid's (and other's) finances as 'off-book' from state funding- so their raison d'etre is no more. By rights all the housing associations should be folded into local authorities- and administered fully by local authorities- the whole notion of having a plethora of them out there fighting for funding and other scarce resources (including but not limited to knowledgeable manpower)- is just nuts. Disband them- do a spring clean, they were allowed form for political reasons, they certainly can be liquidated for political reasons.
The Belly wrote: » Cluid and the rest of the housing agencies are band aid made to look like things are being done. They werent the solution before and wont be now.
Graham wrote: » 22,000 would be less than a years demand. I would hazard a guess, the majority of the 22,000 have already been sold. There's a lot less speculative building going on these days. Most large scale developments are pre-sold off plan.
Eric Cartman wrote: » Cluid and the councils will get the chequebook out when prices drop off and buy the second fix / finished houses for social housing. The general public won't get a look in on new build discounts but a lot of people who paid up to half a million quid for a house are about to be living with much lower income neighbours than themselves. it will however mean the builders don't go to the wall and subbies will be paid so shouldn't cause the same issues as the last time.
Graham wrote: » Even taking the pessimistic view that half were unfinished, that's still a couple of years peak-demand hitting a distressed market simultaneously. That's not going to happen now.
Graham wrote: » It's also easy to forget that at the start of the GFC the impact on property prices was massively amplified by the shear volume of unsold new builds. Estimates vary between 35,000 and 100,000 new build houses in 2009. There's nothing like that number today.
Graham wrote: » I'd argue the exact opposite. We're not going to kickstart the economy with austerity.
JimmyVik wrote: » I dont think increments amounted to much for them at all. I know if I worked for a company for 20 years or more and they suddenly decided that they were not going to stick to the terms we had for the last 20 or more years since I started, like the pension the PS get, I would feel very hard done by. Wouldnt you? Do you think that the public sector paid more or less than the private sector for the last recession. Im private sector and I think the public sector were shafted to high heaven. I think they are still being shafted today.
schmittel wrote: » Market is frozen at the minute so prices don't really have an opportunity to go up or down! Beyond that any opinion is little more than a guess, but sure what's the harm in that?! I'd say that when it opens back up again - August I think? - there will be a period where the existing sale agreeds and approved mortgages wash through the system; i.e buyers and sellers agree to proceed or not and those who retained mortgage approval decide whether to buy or not. It will take until end of year until we can see data on these prices This I think will look like the soft landing - a drop of around 5%. I think the drop from 5% - 20% will be occur over the following 12 months - first half of next year 10% then in second half 20%. I think the drops will then slowly grind towards 30%. How long that take and whether it not they reach 30% in my opinion depends entirely on the global availability of a vaccine. i.e I think they'll bottom at 30% and will not rebound until we get vaccine, or bottom between 20-30% if we get a vaccine sooner. There is a lot of talk of how this time it is different which is very true. But all the focus on the banks in better health, no oversupply etc etc ignores the fact that we are not going back to where we were 6 months ago without a vaccine. No amount of robust bank balance sheets or QE or borrowing billions for economic stimulus can change that fact. When I am talking about drop of X% I mean in the average national property value. I get that a ruin in arsehole of Leitrim will drop differently to the penthouse in Ballsbridge!
Cuddlesworth wrote: » There are pros and cons with being publically employed. One of the major perks is regardless of the situation, the job is secure. That means Global Recession, pandemic whatever, their jobs are there. Have you heard of many public service workers furloughed or added to the live register recently? This has a knock on effect, in things like Mortgages where their employment is viewed as the least risky around. You won't see many Civil servant couples AIP being pulled in the next few months. The main downside is usually lower pay for the same roles. In some cases the amounts can be laughable, so they usually end up as contractor roles instead just to fill them and avoid the PS pay structure.
JimmyVik wrote: » So where are you going to get the money to do that?
JimmyVik wrote: » Thats less than 50 feet from the M50 Not surprised. When you stand in that garden you wouldnt be able to hear what the EA is saying to you.
Private sector workers' pay is rising faster than public servants' - but State workers still earn 35pc more. New official figures reveal that private sector workers' earnings rose by 4.2pc in the 12 months to March of this year. This outpaced 1.2pc growth in public sector pay in the same timeframe. A private sector worker's average pay rose from €685 a week, or from €35,794 a year to €37,291. In contrast, public sector workers' wages increased from €952 a week, or €49,721 a year to €50,320 a year - 35pc more.
Villa05 wrote: » Not to every backwater in the country, bring it as far as town Village centres. Subsidise 50/50 cost share to anywhere else, this will drastically reduce cost Disagree, these countries always looking for workers in specific sectors and will absorb the cream of the crop from poorly run countries Banks will have to make higher provision for bad loans > less to loan out > higher proportion of bad loans to profitable loans > higher % rates to compensate for bad loans > further bad loans due to higher % rates > collapse of mortgage market > collapse in house prices
fliball123 wrote: » Thats not correct there were increments still being paid even during the last recession and some of the pay cuts were restored what should happen is PS should be told to fund their pensions themselves and not have the tax payer do it, I think it is very unfair to ask one subset of workers (private sector and self employed) to contribute to another subset of workers (the public sector) pensions when the vast majority of the first sector cannot afford their own and even with the pension levy it comes no where near enough to cover the costs
