Bass Reeves wrote: » The last recession was about 60+billion for property and banks gross at the time. The net cost was 45-50billion as Nama managed the outcome and there is equity in the banks to be recovered but we struggled with the amount on the day. The deficit was heading for 30billion + one year. It was 10billion+ for 2-3years as well before we got it finally under control. This was in a scenario where construction was at a standstill for 4-6years. As well a lot of MNC's were going because if our cost base and this fed into the indigenous sector. This time we will still have a construction and MNC sectors. Tourism will really struggle as will the hospitality sector. But the rest of the service sector may recover to 70-90% of present capacity I think in 2002-4 house prices fell 15-20% but recovered it was not a huge shock to property
combat14 wrote: » how many work in tourism- 200,000 people?
eagle eye wrote: » The other thing which I kept hearing from experts was how the Euro is likely to be devalued. This will affect house prices because your euro is worth less so a house price staying the same means it's actually worth less but we don't see that change because we are all dealing in the Euro.
addaword wrote: » In other recessions Irish people could emigrate to USA, UK, Oz wherever. This time that option will not be there. The Irish economy will have to sustain them. Taxes will go up, public sector wages will go down. It is inevitable house prices will crash too.
fliball123 wrote: The bailout to the bank figure does not really matter we had to borrow 200billion this time its 30billion big big difference already between the 2 recessions and every bank were chasing down people who were not paying mortgages looking for repossessions and they went after everyone who stopped paying a mortgage regardless of if the person couldn't pay or decided not to pay. A lot of the times people who had no equity or in neg equity just jingle mailed the keys back. But this time people know they can get away with years not paying the mortgage and even if their house goes into negative equity they can stay there without paying for as long as they want.. They will be up the cost of renting, why would they go anywhere?
ittakestwo wrote: » No. There will be no meaningful inflation in Europe for years. All the bond buying the ECB is doing is trying to prevent deflation and even at that they probably wont be able to.
futonic wrote: » It will lead to the real value of all our euros, dollars, pounds, yen being less, which in time will lead to stagflation. I don't think property prices will fall so much as, the value of our money will.
cnocbui wrote: » House prices would be affected if the Euro was significantly devalued and Chinese and others with foreign currency that appreciated, were allowed to flood in and start buying properties en mass. This is what drove prices up in Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The Chinese show no sign of being silly enough to buy Irish properties, they would be far more likely to buy up goodies where the weather is actually tolerable, like the French Riviera, French vinyards, Chateaus and the same in Italy. They would probably buy up ski resorts as well.
greendom wrote: » Glenveagh are talking a good game ...https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/glenveagh-eyes-recovery-as-covid-19-restrictions-set-to-be-eased-1.4247215?mode=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: » Can you paste the article in here?
topmanamillion wrote: » An emergency budget is highly likely, probably late summer, early Autumn. They're talking about a €40 billion hole being blown in the national finances. No one truly knows until the economy starts up again and permanent job loses and businesses closures are better known but it is going to be a very large figure. There's 2 ways the government/EU can cover their loses. Either devalue the Euro meaning everyones money is worth less and/or increase taxes. Another USC style national emergency tax appearing next year on workers payslips seems very likely.
Hubertj wrote: » So what do the “experts” on boards make of this?https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/what-will-happen-to-house-prices-after-lockdown-1.4245520
Reversal wrote: » A piece on the property market, exclusively featuring the opinions of EAs and published in a paper that owns a property website, and they are still predicting a drop. Things must be bad
Bass Reeves wrote: » This cannot happen as the Euro is a world wide base currency that is too strong.
schmittel wrote: In the same paper the MD of SherryFitz chooses her words carefully, saying volumes will fall, whilst not quite straying into bearish territory on price falls but acknowledging "there is some downside risk while the economy and labour market adjust."
OneMoreBabadee wrote: Of course it can happen and the ECB have already done this through an extensive quantitative easing program from 2015-2018. In 2016 they were printing €80 billion/month.
The bodies representing valuers say that while they have begun adding a Covid-related clause to valuations, they are not altering values based on the virus. Meanwhile the banks are saying the matter is one for valuers, but there is concern an implicit Covid-19 discount will be factored in to new valuations.
A quick recovery in employment levels and the easing of lockdown will be critical to any soft landing for the residential property market.
Villa05 wrote: » I wonder how this never led to any inflation of note
OneMoreBabadee wrote: I don't have any stats handy but anecdotally there was significant asset price inflation (stocks/shares and property mainly) during those years. Interestingly it looks like the ECB are expanding QE to deal with the covid19 aftermath. A possible outcome of this is property prices (in absolute terms) remain stagnant but the value of the Euro drops.
