christy c wrote: » Unfortunately for all of us is that during this time, SF have been using the tried and trusted Bertie Ahern spend like drunken sailors strategy. So while the increase in seats is good news for their supporters and members, not so much so for the rest of us. I really despair at what the next few years of going to be like, a projected €30 billion deficit this year but all the main parties seem to be living in cloud cuckoo land. Very little detail about the harsh reality that's facing us, I expect that's because they all expect an election relatively soon.
christy c wrote: I really despair at what the next few years of going to be like, a projected €30 billion deficit this year but all the main parties seem to be living in cloud cuckoo land. Very little detail about the harsh reality that's facing us, I expect that's because they all expect an election relatively soon.
FrancieBrady wrote: » 'Con artists'...is your term. FG conned me and a lot of others in 2011. I voted SF this time after giving Enda another chance in 2016 (I know...fool me once etc etc) I wasn't expecting delivery of all they promised but they failed so abjectly to deliver the new politics they promised it amounted to a con job. I will let you know after a term in government if SF deliver or not.
McMurphy wrote: » So from 2011 the shinners have went from 14 seats to 37 an increase of 164% FG on the other hand have went from 76 seats to 35. A decrease of 54%.
markodaly wrote: » FG have been in government numerous times, all without the help of FF When was the last time FG were in government with FF?
efanton wrote: » If the coalition fails and FF disintegrate, how is it going to be possible for FG to join ANY coalition let alone go solo and form a government with a few indy's to make up the numbers.
With a FF party falling apart if a coalition is not formed where do you think those votes are going to go?
The recent opinion poll gave FG a bit of a bounce, it didnt put them leagues ahead of every other party. It had the Green down 2% and FF down 4% with SF getting a modest increase of 3%.
The reality is FG need FF as much as FF currently needs FG. If FF nosedived in a repeat election FG will not be in government and neither would FF.
efanton wrote: » Mark, I have long given up reading all your posts, let alone bothering to reply to them.
blanch152 wrote: » This doesn’t make sense at all based on the recent opinion poll. If it is right, forming a government without FG would be close to impossible.
efanton wrote: » If FF disintegrates which parties fill the void they leave behind, FG might pick up some of this vote but most of it would be going to Labour, SF, Greens and the SD's, in fact it is likely that some FF TD's (current and past) would consider defecting to these parties as an act of political self preservation.
FG are playing the only cards they have. They could opt for a new election, but are probably terrified that even though they will do slightly better the FF vote will collapse leaving them with zero options of going into government, and it being unlikely that they would ever be in a position where they could ever easily form a government in the future. FG need FF to survive.
They could hang on in there form a coalition, any coalition, hope beyond hope that they pull of some sort of minor miracle getting through the virus crisis, addressing the mistakes they made in the past to some degree, and bringing the economy back to some sort of stability over the period of another term in government and somehow redeem themselves in the eyes of the electorate.
A man is only prepared to lose everything when he has nothing else left to loose.
We have two parties FF and FG who at this time have nothing left to lose. It has nothing to do with what was said during the election, nothing to do with election promises and absolutely nothing to do with what is good for the country. Leo will bail out Micheal Martin because the alternative for FG is unthinkable.
PommieBast wrote: » My pre-Covid thinking was that MM would be deposed and some sort of FF-SF coalition would emerge. That looks well off the agenda now. Based on how the "handing of Brexit" campaign they ran back in feb went, I doubt they will be thanked for it.
efanton wrote: » Lets be blunt about the whole situation. FG took a massive slap in the recent election, far bigger than they expected. FF didnt come close to their expectations, in fact the recent election is probably the death knell for the FF party unless it is prepared to totally reform itself into something totally different. I cant see that ever happening especially when you have Micheal Martin at the helm and many of those sat around the cabinet table making the disastrous decisions that led to a total bank and bondholder bailout and years of austerity in this country still largely in control of FF. The reality is Micheal Martin sees this as his last possible chance of being Taoiseach, and if he fails in that then he will simply be sidelined and replaced and he knows this is an all or nothing effort for him. If FF fail to enter government then its likely that there will be a major schism within the party either resulting in a complete replacement of the 'top dogs' in the party or a inevitable disintegration of the party. If another election is called, it is likely that some of the FF TD's that were elected, and some of those that were not but expected to be elected will go independent, or actually switch to another party unless there is serious and immediate reform within FF. Leo and the front bench in FG know this as well. If they step away from this opportunity to remain in government, FF as a force in politics are dead. As much as each of the two parties (FF and FG) claim that they are adversaries, each to a large degree depends on the other. If FF disintegrates which parties fill the void they leave behind, FG might pick up some of this vote but most of it would be going to Labour, SF, Greens and the SD's, in fact it is likely that some FF TD's (current and past) would consider defecting to these parties as an act of political self preservation. FG are playing the only cards they have. They could opt for a new election, but are probably terrified that even though they will do slightly better the FF vote will collapse leaving them with zero options of going into government, and it being unlikely that they would ever be in a position where they could ever easily form a government in the future. FG need FF to survive. They could hang on in there form a coalition, any coalition, hope beyond hope that they pull of some sort of minor miracle getting through the virus crisis, addressing the mistakes they made in the past to some degree, and bringing the economy back to some sort of stability over the period of another term in government and somehow redeem themselves in the eyes of the electorate. A man is only prepared to lose everything when he has nothing else left to loose. We have two parties FF and FG who at this time have nothing left to lose. It has nothing to do with what was said during the election, nothing to do with election promises and absolutely nothing to do with what is good for the country. Leo will bail out Micheal Martin because the alternative for FG is unthinkable.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Covid, was an out of the blue lifeline for them, nobody would want that, but it happened. FG are playing it well so far.
Mortelaro wrote: » Were you asleep during the election? FF and FG campaigned as adversaries Except Leo answered a question saying hed go with them as a last resort only What part of first and middle resort being let the rest get on with their negotiations before that last resort is reached do you not understand?
Bowie wrote: » Nope. If FG had to form a government by any means necessary the 'last resort' story might carry a little weight, had they not a prior relationship of convenience with FF. They merrily chose FF, they could have decided to go back to their initial choice of opposition. They never explored any other formation scenarios outside of accepting FF's invite. You diluting and fudging to talk about pre-election wishes and wants is an irrelevance. Again, what other match? They publicly announced they relished opposition. They knocked FF back not once, but twice affirming they wanted to go into opposition. They then chose to take FF's invite to try form a government. I'm as much a SF supporter as I am a PBP supporter. I know it's easy to dismiss any FG criticism or comment as blind bias but every point is explained although your comprehension seems unable or unwilling to grasp, regardless of my or anyone else's voting habits.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Jeepers, talk about round the houses excuse making. FG were gaming at best, lying at worst. It was like a child who hurts themselves stupidly saying 'I meant to do that'. They had just been embarrased at the polls and huffed for a while.
Podge_irl wrote: » It is not within FG's remit or powers to "choose" opposition. They remain the government until either an election is called or another Taoiseach is elected. They are, presumably, working on the basis that an interim government long term is not the ideal scenario and an election right now is basically impossible. I suppose remaining as an interim govt is the actual last resort if you want to be particularly picky.
Bishop of hope wrote: » Are you prepared to admit SF are con artists?
Bowie wrote: » Last resort suggests there were other 'resorts' or avenues for forming government and FG had exhausted them. That is not the case. It was opposition or FF. Initially it was opposition now they chose FF instead. That's the facts. Pure baloney FG being the reluctant partner of FF. Laughable and false.
FrancieBrady wrote: » 'con artists' All three of the parties in talks have lambasted the policy of the other two. Two of those party's ruled out coalition with the others. Con artists? Yeh, sure.
Mortelaro wrote: » No Its actually simple enough and very transparent Fine Gael would prefer to have been first like last time not third They assumed that FF and SF would do business (so did I) In other words that MM would relent his opposition to that I think that marriage is what Leo was relishing or any opposition to it That didn't happen of course and won't this term but the numbers were and are there for it You seem to be discounting the fact that FG wanted to see first if FF and SF would dance or any other combination FF needed either SF or FG FG had the luxury of relishing opposition or as a last resort if no other match could happen go in with FF and the smaller parties Its understandable that you'd discount all that, being a Sinn Fein supporter But it doesn't change the situation
FrancieBrady wrote: » Algorithm isn't targeting you. I get them from most of them. Is there a point to this btw?
PommieBast wrote: » Haven't received any from anyone else since the election, but have had three from PBP.
FrancieBrady wrote: » They all do.
Mortelaro wrote: » It's not really They're at the last resort now,not the middle resort or the first resort It's as per what they said That's what they are doing
blanch152 wrote: » Well, they certainly don't support a government led by themselves. It took the PBP calling them out today to show the lack of action on forming a government by SF.
