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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Donald Trump

cnocbui wrote: »

Would you continue to operate as a developer in this country if the government did such a thing and effectively started dictating to you the price you should sell at, and when, and how much profit or loss you would be forced to?

Apart from that, this might be unconstitutional.

That's nonsense. There is nothing unconstitutional about a levy. They did it with NPPR levy. (A levy does not dictate an amount of profit or loss in any case)

Being granted residential planning permission is a licence to supply houses. If you want a licence to build and supply houses, then you have a responsibility to supply them. Simple as that. Planning permission is also not granted in perpetuity. As we going to suggest also that having a time limit on planning permission is "unconstitutional"?

An analogy might be to say , if we (again) severely restricted the number of people who can own taxi plates so that only a few people own all the plates and that nobody else could have a plate. So suppose that the state awards the right to own plates to some small set of individuals. And then the owners of those plates are allowed to decide "we're going to manipulate the number of taxis we put on the road until we create enough scarcity that people will be forced to pay double the current rate". That would not be allowed to happen. (And as an aside, further to your remarks about dictating profit and loss, in the taxi sector there is actually a regulator that sets (maximum) prices. I am not suggesting that for houses, I am suggesting a levy. I am merely pointing out that price setting actually does occur in other areas and is not deemed to be "unconstitutional" there!)

As for housing, if you get permission to build them and then you want to hoard them to create scarcity, then you can pay a levy on them. If you don't want to pay the levy then either build them and sell them within a reasonable time frame or else allow someone else to build them who will sell them. It would have to be done in conjunction with a vacant site tax.

Blueshoe

stinger31 wrote: »

A blind man can see whats going to happen to the economy and the housing market but unfortunately these people wont accept it. keep the head in the sand folks

What's going to happen?

Cyrus

Ozark707 wrote: »

So there is a development now sitting idle for 3 years?

Houses are rented

JJJackal

Re a vacant site levy - theoretically you could bulid one house on a 10 acre site eg a landbank in Dublin (with a "plan" to build 600 more) and it would not be vacant anymore?

stinger31

JimmyVik wrote: »

So what exactly are you trying to say then?

Maybe there are sales that were done a long time ago completing in April.
It shows no info on the current market bar completions.

And would this kind of thing below colour the numbers there by any chance.

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/04/2020%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/5/2020%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*mount%20argus*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2020&StartMonth=04&EndMonth=04&Address=mount%20argus

Or

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/04/2020%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/5/2020%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*cedarview*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2020&StartMonth=04&EndMonth=04&Address=cedarview

HAHA well played Sir

stinger31

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Will the average house really drop in value? A lot of sectors of the economy will likely weather this and the peopel who work in those areas purchasing power won't be affected:
Pharma, BioPharma, BioMedical - largely unaffected

IT - one of the most suited areas for working from home

Public Sector - immune to losing jobs and a weak government is unlikely to cut salaries

Doctors, Pharmacists, Solicitors - business as usual for a lot of them

People working for small & medium companies look to be the most in trouble. What percentage of house buyers are made up by this sector? Will it be enough to cause prices to fall given how much pent up demand there is?

Could be massively affected .....
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/trump-vows-to-bring-ireland-s-pharma-production-to-us-1.4244395

6541

stinger31 wrote: »

Could be massively affected .....
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/trump-vows-to-bring-ireland-s-pharma-production-to-us-1.4244395

Not to drag away from the property market topic. It is not easy to relocate pharma and Bio products - It takes years to get facilities set up and running. So if he made a decision to bring them back to the US, it could take 5 years for that to actually happen.

PommieBast

stinger31 wrote: »

You'd swear they were plants or have a massive interest in saving the housing market. Some of their points are just off the wall. Either Landlords, sellers or estate agents.

Flip side is all the buyers who are dreaming about a house with a 70% discount. Plenty of BS flowing in both directions unfortunately..

stinger31

you could be right, i wouldn't know much about that. I would imagine that funding etc would be halted and there wouldn't be much spending this side of the pond if the master plan was to relocate

Dwarf.Shortage

PommieBast wrote: »

Flip side is all the buyers who are dreaming about a house with a 70% discount. Plenty of BS flowing in both directions unfortunately..

Has anyone actually claimed this? I think for the most part people are talking 20-30%.

thomas 123

PommieBast wrote: »

Flip side is all the buyers who are dreaming about a house with a 70% discount. Plenty of BS flowing in both directions unfortunately..

Yeah I’m hoping to buy or build next year and can see it being harder as more people will hold onto land and hold onto property.

I think get any sizable reduction in prices we would need a long lasting downturn.

I wouldn’t be personally calling for that to happen at this stage and honestly hope it does not happen.

stinger31

PommieBast wrote: »

Flip side is all the buyers who are dreaming about a house with a 70% discount. Plenty of BS flowing in both directions unfortunately..

There will be a lot of people with egg on their face in a few months time and ive a funny feeling it'll be the property bulls

Gav19801

Hi all,
I'm mortgage approved for 350k plus have a 70k deposit so total budget is 420k. Family of 4 with 2 young children. There must be good opportunities in the market now for picking up properties 20% under asking price. We are currently renting and paying huge rent so keen to still buy something at a good price as its a long term purchase. I also work in sales so although the economy and property market might tank, so will my earnings so I won't get approved for so much a year or two down the line. A mortgage for 350k would be around 1600 per month, currently paying 2500 rent in South Dublin so there is substantial savings there. My kids will be going to school in blackrock so needs to be commutable to there.
Any advice from seasoned pros greatly appreciated

Hubertj

stinger31 wrote: »

Could be massively affected .....
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/trump-vows-to-bring-ireland-s-pharma-production-to-us-1.4244395

It’s called electioneering. Many MNCs will examiner their supply chains after this but it is likely China that will be worse affected. Too many companies had single source for key products across all industries

Donald Trump

JJJackal wrote: »

Re a vacant site levy - theoretically you could bulid one house on a 10 acre site eg a landbank in Dublin (with a "plan" to build 600 more) and it would not be vacant anymore?

If you apply for rezoning for residential and get it, then the land is now zoned for housing and be marked as such on development plans.

Should the owner apply for for planning permission for a solitary house, then that should of course be rejected - the 10 acres has been zoned to provide housing. Building one house on it is not appropriate. Should they divide up the site into 0.1 acre sites and apply for permission for 1 house, then maybe that could be divided off from the overall 10 acre block and satisfy the requirements for 0.1 of the acres and the other 9.9 remain undeveloped. That last stipulation would only be to ward off manufactured challenges about "only having the funds to initially build one house and having plans to use the funds from the sale of that house to build more"

Should the developer apply for permission for 1000 units and only build one, well the other property tax levy should have kicked in within a reasonable time frame after the granting of planning permission.

This is why I mentioned that a levy on unused houses would have to kick in based on the granting of planning permission and would have to be in conjunction with a vacant site levy. The levy would have to kick in regardless of whether the houses are built of not.

There would be two ways to avoid the unused house levy - (1) sell the houses to people or (2) sell the site to someone who will build them after you obtain the planning permission

There would be two ways to avoid a vacant site levy - (1) sell the site to someone who will get the planning permission and develop it or (2) apply to have the land zoned back to some other use - greenbelt or agricultural.

eagle eye

With over 60% of buyers over the last couple of years being cash buyers it's hard to see a big swing in house prices.

Donald Trump

eagle eye wrote: »

With over 60% of buyers over the last couple of years being cash buyers it's hard to see a big swing in house prices.

What is your definition of cash buyer?

Is it someone who sold a house recently (or has savings) and just buys a house straight off.

Or is it someone who has gotten mortgage approval and can draw the cash as soon as they need it
Or is it just someone whose purchase isn't dependent on the sale of their previous house?

Villa05

If I was a cash buyer I'd be holding waiting for the drops and then buying

Cash buyers will not be propping up current prices or easing the falls, they will be well aware of the advantage they hold

Marius34

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Has anyone actually claimed this? I think for the most part people are talking 20-30%.

I'm following this thread. I'd say the average based on the opinions of this thread would be around 15%-20% in fall. There are some looking for over 30%, and even 50% in crash. As far as I have seen, I'm the most optimistic here, expecting only around 5% in property price downturn. although 10% wouldn't be surprise either, as that is not big difference from 5% in current uncertainty.

hometruths

Villa05 wrote: »

If I was a cash buyer I'd be holding waiting for the drops and then buying

Cash buyers will not be propping up current prices or easing the falls, they will be well aware of the advantage they hold

Totally agree, I'd argue that cash buyers are even more price sensitive than mortgage buyers, and far more likely to wait and see.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Are people referring to cash buyers as purely those with funds to buy the property outright 100pc or those which may have large deposits, say 40/50pc?

Claw Hammer

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Are people referring to cash buyers as purely those with funds to buy the property outright 100pc or those which may have large deposits, say 40/50pc?

A person who has to mortgage the property to complete the purchase is not a cash buyer.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Claw Hammer wrote: »

A person who has to mortgage the property to complete the purchase is not a cash buyer.

Curious to see where regular people would get 300/400k to do so? Would be a very small number no?

awec

Donald Trump wrote: »

What is your definition of cash buyer?

Is it someone who sold a house recently (or has savings) and just buys a house straight off.

Or is it someone who has gotten mortgage approval and can draw the cash as soon as they need it
Or is it just someone whose purchase isn't dependent on the sale of their previous house?

A cash buyer is a buyer who is entirely self financed. No banks or third party lenders involved.

Cash buyers are the ones who can safely wait it out to an extent as they are immune from any tightening of lending criteria by banks. The only risk to cash buyers is inflation (aside from the usual risk of no longer finding houses in the location or at the standard they want if they wait).

awec

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Curious to see where regular people would get 300/400k to do so? Would be a very small number no?

Inheritance, sale of previous property with mortgage cleared, downsizers with enough equity to cash buy a smaller, cheaper house etc.

[Deleted User]

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Curious to see where regular people would get 300/400k to do so? Would be a very small number no?

Lots of places in Ireland where you could buy a house for under 200,000.

Claw Hammer

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Curious to see where regular people would get 300/400k to do so? Would be a very small number no?

Who said they were regular people?

PommieBast

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm following this thread. I'd say the average based on the opinions of this thread would be around 15%-20% in fall. There are some looking for over 30%, and even 50% in crash.

I can foresee a 5% drop just from EAs reigning in the tricks they use to squeeze out that ever slightly higher "final" bid.

awec wrote: »

A cash buyer is a buyer who is entirely self financed. No banks or third party lenders involved.

I think some would also include "no chain" as a criteria as well.

Umaro

eagle eye wrote: »

With over 60% of buyers over the last couple of years being cash buyers it's hard to see a big swing in house prices.

Have to agree with the other responses to this.

Cash buyers hold all the cards in a situation like this. They'll be in no rush to prop up the market seeing as they can afford to wait for the drops and then make their move. As banks tighten lending restrictions it'll push some mortgage seekers out of the market for a while and the pool of buyers will get smaller, which gives cash buyers a lot more power.

Claw Hammer

PommieBast wrote: »

I can foresee a 5% drop just from EAs reigning in the tricks they use to squeeze out that ever slightly higher "final" bid.

I think some would also include "no chain" as a criteria as well.

That would be a reference to any contract they might sign more so than their status as cash buyers. A person who needs to sell another property may not be pt of by a title problem but may not be as satisfactory for the vendor as they will want a contract conditional on their own sale.