Hubertj wrote: » So there isn’t a shortage of housing? I thought the CSO reports stated there was and that x supply annually was required to keep up with the number of new household formations? If there isn’t a shortage in Dublin why are there so few properties to let all the time?
schmittel wrote: » As far as I can see there is no shortage of built housing stock. That is different to saying there is no shortage of short term available housing supply on the sales and rental market. But simply trying to solve the short term supply problem by adding to the existing stock is bananas. It is expensive, involves long lead times, and will ultimately only lead to over supply in the long term.
Hubertj wrote: » Interesting opinion. Haven’t seen it written anywhere by economists, socialists and other “experts”. How would you propose to make more efficient use of the current stock? Are you referring to both social and private units?
schmittel wrote: » You are stating that a relatively minor fall in the housing stock caused a major % rise of working adults living with at home with parent/s: This is completely misleading because you are quoting stats for working adults - obviously these stats are influenced by the number of jobs available rather than the number of houses available - i.e the big jump in number of working adults living at home was because there was a big jump in working adults full stop. Unemployment in 2011 was about 15%, double what it was in 2016 at about 7.5% The figures are less alarming if you look at the numbers of all adults living at home: In 2011 there were 439,478 adults, aged 18 years and over living at home. In 2016 there were 458,874 adults, aged 18 years and over living at home. An increase of 19,396 or 4.4% Source - https://statbank.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=E4097&PLanguage=0 Total population increased in that time by 3.8% - https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/census-2016-summary-results-part-1-full.pdf Not an alarming increase at all. Just data manipulation. You should know better: There is a big problem in this country with an inefficient use of the existing housing stock but the idea that there is a crisis chronic shortage is overhyped massively.
Marius34 wrote: » What data do I manipulate? I'm providing information what i can find directly from the source, without trying to hide anything. There is things that I might not know, so I may be missing something.
Marius34 wrote: » I'm not sure how you don't see supply side issue, when Ireland has way less living space in comparison with other similar level of economies. How you can solve long term housing issue with current housing stocks...
schmittel wrote: » Whilst you may not have manipulated the data you quoted, you did quote data "which doesn't really present the actual Property Market" to make a point about the property market. I see an availability/efficiency problem rather than stock problem. I don't see a long term housing issue. See above.
Padre_Pio wrote: » Is this stock in areas where people want to buy? There's plenty of houses for sale in West Cork, Leitrim, Roscommon, Mayo and Donegal. No one wants to live there.
Marius34 wrote: » From your other comment you talking mainly moving properties from left to right, right to left. You may solve one problem, and may get into another problem, without new supplies.
Marius34 wrote: » Ireland is not any different from other countries in the sense of vacant properties. There are no high vacancy in Ireland nowadays in Urban areas. You expect Ireland to solve issues with low residential housing stock, in a way that no other countries are able to do.
schmittel wrote: » I believe ramping up building new supplies now, you may solve one problem short term and may get into another long term.
schmittel wrote: » We are different in terms of our inefficiency of stock. No other country would have allowed the mortgage arrears situation to develop as it has here. That is over 100,000 properties removed from the property market cycle. It is a huge amount and has a knock on effect. Tackling the arrears problem would have a far quicker impact on the current supply problem than building more properties.
Marius34 wrote: » Those 100,000 properties in arrears are not vacant. So still people from those houses would need to live somewhere. Finding few thousand vacant properties, or squeezing those people to save few thousand of properties, has no significant impact in long term.
enricoh wrote: » Is there really a shortage of housing stock? Or is it just for social housing? I reckon so. Saw an article last year that 20% of new builds in estates were unsold after 6 months. I was surprised at the figure tbh.
Brussels Sprout wrote: » It is possible to have both a housing shortage and have unsold houses if the prices of those houses are set higher than the market can bear.
The Student wrote: » If we do have unsold houses and their price is lowered expect cash buyers to purchase them. Credit will become harder to get and the returns via renting versus bank deposits will make it more attractive.
Hubertj wrote: » I think this is where the affordability element comes into it... unsold houses are unaffordable or perhaps people don’t think they represent value even if they can afford them?
Ozark707 wrote: » I think one of the issues was that many new builds were targeted at the higher end of the mid marker or above. As that market is not as busy as the lower ends it was going to struggle a bit more anyway. I have noticed a number of places languishing on the market for over 6 months so they have to face reality now in the post Covid world, drop prices (and not just a small amount) or else they will remain unsold for the foreseeable...
Ozark707 wrote: » If rents go further south than they have already then it could put off these purchasers somewhat.
The Student wrote: » Property at the right price is a safer bet than a bank. We could be heading to negative interest rates for any savings over €100k.
Cyrus wrote: » They may not Cairn haven’t dropped their prices in Albany at least not that I have seen and they are on sale 3 year now
The Student wrote: » Not necessarily. Investors are concerned with ROI so if you can get a better % return after tax and expenses via property than banks people will go for it. Property at the right price is a safer bet than a bank. We could be heading to negative interest rates for any savings over €100k.
Ozark707 wrote: » I have not heard about this potential development, have you a link to it?
Donald Trump wrote: » Simple solution is to put a levy or tax on such developments. I don't know anything about this one in particular, but definitely by the time limit that the limit for planning permission runs out, there should be a levy. Or at the very least the property tax should be being paid by the developer and there could easily be a higher rate for houses that are not lived in full-time.
Villa05 wrote: » It was the youth of the country that paid the price for the last recession. 0 hours contracts Reduced pay in the public service regardless of whether they performed better than their older much higher paid colleagues Work for free on internships Temporary contracts Ever increasing rents This cohort are the Ftb of today, I just wonder how healthy their finances are and if their really is this pent up demand for entry level houses at current prices When you take out the bottom rung of the ladder, everything above it falls as well It's also notable that the government are prepping the youth of today saying that youth unemployment will rise substantially in this coming recession It seems odd that when older folk are disadvantaged, "we are all in this together" to help get to the other side safely. Eg covid 19, health insurance pricing When it's our sons and daughters are affected negatively like recessions, spiralling accommodation costs, employment terms and conditions, car insurance this togetherness is lost and we allow a system that pulls up the ladder for the people in it severely affecting new entrants How long will this continue?
