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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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fliball123

addaword wrote: »

Give it time, there will unfortunately be plenty of sales of properties of deceased and unemployed people. The price of property can only drop.

Maybe some people who have died will have their property sold for their relatives (this often takes a lot of time in some cases years) and maybe some people who were unemployed and who have a 2nd property renting will have to sell. But be very clear anyone unemployed and who has a house they are living in will not lose their house its is nearly impossible in this country to repossess and no government will pull that trigger as it would be political suicide. So there will not be many sold from those who are on the dole, you only have to look at the people who got into trouble in the last recession there were very very few repossessions

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Yet your argument is void of fact I have told you were to look at the supply of houses dropping, just to add another decrease in properties available in myhome today from yesterday. I also said that there were over 200 homes sold in the last 10 days yesterday . So just to give you a figure of people actually currently buying. Sold property is showing 284 properties sold in the last 2 weeks.

I dont mind you arguing a point but it would be nice if there was a bit of substance behind your argument

Do you have a link to that sold list?
Are they actual real sales? Or just estate agents marking them as sold?

fliball123

lsjmhar wrote: »

That is actually quite low. Given all the shouting after the last crisis I would have thought it was higher. If current crisis continues for an extended period there will be little finance to purchase from the private sector then. Does not bode well if the country doesn't start moving in next 2/3 months, me thinks!!

Assetbacked wrote: »

Demand is not increasing, that doesn't necessarily mean it is decreasing. There is still demand for new homes and therefore money to be made for those that build them. Restricting supy means no money is to be made, that doesn't make sense where there is a market to sell into.

True but Supply is definitely decreasing and as always price is a product of supply vs demand. It will be interesting to see how many sales are going on in the summer months as more than likely the selling process would of definitely happened during corona at the moment some of the sales could potentially of been agreed before the pandemic happened. We will get a better idea of what demand is like at the end of August

Rock77

Marius34 wrote: »

I didn't comment to ciaranmul. Although it would be interested to see if this data is something new, or it used to be similar cases in the past couple of years.

My comment was specifically on your statement about this group: "In this thread people will jump all over you for mentioning price decreases "

Oh ok, no problem. You do know that my comment was about people jumping on Ciaranmul for mentioning price decreases though..... I’m ok with people jumping on others manipulating data and misrepresenting things but this wasn’t the case here.

dubstepper

Some people are making the point about the security of jobs in IT, Finance, Public Sector but while these jobs may not have direct exposure to covid 19 effects, they will feel it if the general economy takes a hit i.e. their customer's customers could be going out of business. It just may take some time to work its way up the chain.

Also if the there is a lot of public debt to be repaid, and a reduced tax base, its possible that public servants could have to take some form of cut.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Believe me I know just how nonsensical my counterargument was, which was exactly the point that I think you may have missed.

But I am curious about the 284 house sold in the last 2 weeks - where are you getting that figure from?

Myhome has a sold dashboard where you can put in a start and end date and it shows the day and property was sold.

GreeBo

Rock77 wrote: »

Ciaranmul,

Thanks for the examples and info.

You clearly stated in your original post that you seen a couple of large drops, mostly 7-8% drops (I think) and even some increases.

Then you had some reply’s to say you are misleading people, it doesn’t represent the whole market, and ‘what are you trying to say’

My guess is you were trying to say you have seen some price drops and here are the examples..

In this thread people will jump all over you for mentioning price decreases, it’s actually quite funny. Anyway thanks for the examples, much appreciated.

Ah come off it.
Someone posting in the Property2020 thread that they have seen some decreases and some increases is hardly news!

I have seen some share prices go up and others go down, tune it later for more "news".

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

Do you have a link to that sold list?
Are they actual real sales? Or just estate agents marking them as sold?

google myhome sold properties and then manipulate the data by specifying start and end date

OwlsZat

Big uptick in the volume of rental property in Dublin hitting the market this month. Also higher priced property falling faster. Stands to reason.

fliball123

OwlsZat wrote: »

Big uptick in the volume of rental property in Dublin hitting the market this month. Also higher priced property falling faster. Stands to reason.

Which would further prove my theory that people will keep a hold of their property and rent it out until prices start to climb again.

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

google myhome sold properties and then manipulate the data by specifying start and end date

I just checked that.
Did your mother never tell you not to believe a word from an estate agent.
That does not show the amount of sold properties in the last 2 weeks.

The best you'll get there are actual sales from the property price register, which does not show recent enough sales.

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

I just checked that.
Did your mother never tell you not to believe a word from an estate agent.
That does not show the amount of sold properties in the last 2 weeks.

The best you'll get there are actual sales from the property price register, which does not show recent enough sales.

Even on property price register from the start of (unfortunately it cant broken down into weeks) April to the end its showing 1451 and it last updated on the 29th so are they both wrong?? Both myhome and property price register are not estate agents as far as I know. But thanks for giving my theory more data that backs it up

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Even on property price register from the start of (unfortunately it cant broken down into weeks) April to the end its showing 1451 and it last updated on the 29th so are they both wrong?? Both myhome and property price register are not estate agents as far as I know. But thanks for giving my theory more data that backs it up

So what exactly are you trying to say then?

Maybe there are sales that were done a long time ago completing in April.
It shows no info on the current market bar completions.

And would this kind of thing below colour the numbers there by any chance.

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/04/2020%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/5/2020%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*mount%20argus*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2020&StartMonth=04&EndMonth=04&Address=mount%20argus

Or

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/04/2020%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/5/2020%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*cedarview*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2020&StartMonth=04&EndMonth=04&Address=cedarview

Rock77

GreeBo wrote: »

Ah come off it.
Someone posting in the Property2020 thread that they have seen some decreases and some increases is hardly news!

I have seen some share prices go up and others go down, tune it later for more "news".

Someone posting about property in the property thread and others not liking the numbers so trying to shut them down was the issue.

Do you jump on everyone that posts something that’s not ‘news’ to you or just the people that mention prices decreasing?

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

So what exactly are you trying to say then?

Basically the general thread on here has been that demand has dropped off to zero. I have been asking where people are getting their evidence and they have had none. I have said that there were still people buying which ppr and myhome prove that sales are still going on there fore there is still demand. I have also been using myhome to track both properties available on myhome which has come down by about 12% in the last month and rentals which is up significantly. I have been saying that yes demand will go down but so will supply. I have contended that prices will not drop like they did last time in 2008 due to a number of factors..So I will out line them again.

Last recession we had an over supply of housing currently we have a chronic undersupply

Last recession we had the release valve of emigration as in some countries finances actually got better Australia sticks out like a sore thumb for this. A lot of people decided to get out of dodge and go to a warmer country and wait a few years till things got better here. That is not an option this time as Corona is all over the world.

Before the last recession the banks had over extended giving stupid loans like 110% mortgages and trackers meaning they were over exposed. This is not the case leading up to this recession they have adhered to prudent financial rules such as 80/20 etc and are in a lot better shape than before.

Last recession cost us 200 billion. Even if we stay as we currently are with the current levels and the forecast levels of 25% unemployment by the end of the year and we keep paying what we are paying it at least till the end of next year the bill will only be an additional 30/40 billion a lot less than before. Also with the option of refinancing the current 200 billion at a lower rate will save us a fair whack of cash on that.

Last recession banks did get some properties back off home owners due to relentless hounding and people just giving up. This time people in their house know the banks can do diddly squat and cannot repossess your house even if they stop paying their mortgage.

So the dynamics are a lot different. I have stated my opinion that prices will drop but they will not go into or anywhere near double digit drops and that anyone who avails of this drop will be buying a pig with lipstick as the properties currently available are not great and those soon to be coming on stream will be from the but to let market and will not be in great shape.

As for the whole thread I wouldn't advise anyone to buy or sell currently there are too many unknowns..

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

google myhome sold properties and then manipulate the data by specifying start and end date

could you please post a link to the page where you can do this, i cannot find it? thanks

OwlsZat

fliball123 wrote: »

Which would further prove my theory that people will keep a hold of their property and rent it out until prices start to climb again.

No it doesn't. Doesn't prove anything about the future.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

could you please post a link to the page where you can do this, i cannot find it? thanks

https://www.myhome.ie/priceregister

then go to "show more" to put in specific dates

fliball123

OwlsZat wrote: »

No it doesn't. Doesn't prove anything about the future.

What ever you can bring a horse to water but you cant make them drink. I have supplied facts and figures for my opinion, when it comes to yours you continue to play the man and not the ball

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Which would further prove my theory that people will keep a hold of their property and rent it out until prices start to climb again.

If a large volume of people decide to put their property onto the rental market instead of selling it, the prices of rents will fall, putting further downward pressure on sales prices.

This is not rocket science.

Padre_Pio

fliball123 wrote: »

Which would further prove my theory that people will keep a hold of their property and rent it out until prices start to climb again.

No one in their right mind would choose renting over selling given how tenancy laws are stacked against landlords.

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Basically the general thread on here has been that demand has dropped off to zero. I have been asking where people are getting their evidence and they have had none. I have said that there were still people buying which ppr and myhome prove that sales are still going on there fore there is still demand. I have also been using myhome to track both properties available on myhome which has come down by about 12% in the last month and rentals which is up significantly. I have been saying that yes demand will go down but so will supply. I have contended that prices will not drop like they did last time in 2008 due to a number of factors..So I will out line them again.

Last recession we had an over supply of housing currently we have a chronic undersupply

Last recession we had the release valve of emigration as in some countries finances actually got better Australia sticks out like a sore thumb for this. A lot of people decided to get out of dodge and go to a warmer country and wait a few years till things got better here. That is not an option this time as Corona is all over the world.

Before the last recession the banks had over extended giving stupid loans like 110% mortgages and trackers meaning they were over exposed. This is not the case leading up to this recession they have adhered to prudent financial rules such as 80/20 etc and are in a lot better shape than before.

Last recession cost us 200 billion. Even if we stay as we currently are with the current levels and the forecast levels of 25% unemployment by the end of the year and we keep paying what we are paying it at least till the end of next year the bill will only be an additional 30/40 billion a lot less than before. Also with the option of refinancing the current 200 billion at a lower rate will save us a fair whack of cash on that.

Last recession banks did get some properties back off home owners due to relentless hounding and people just giving up. This time people in their house know the banks can do diddly squat and cannot repossess your house even if they stop paying their mortgage.

So the dynamics are a lot different. I have stated my opinion that prices will drop but they will not go into or anywhere near double digit drops and that anyone who avails of this drop will be buying a pig with lipstick as the properties currently available are not great and those soon to be coming on stream will be from the but to let market and will not be in great shape.

As for the whole thread I wouldn't advise anyone to buy or sell currently there are too many unknowns..

I dont know whats going to happen at all. I dont think you can tell from data you have mined so far. It will take time to see whats happening.

But its the type of sales and the timeframe that will tell, and that info isnt available yet.

example of how drilling into the detail can tell a bit more about data.

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/04/2020%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/5/2020%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*mount%20argus*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2020&StartMonth=04&EndMonth=04&Address=mount%20argus

Or

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/04/2020%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/5/2020%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*cedarview*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2020&StartMonth=04&EndMonth=04&Address=cedarview

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

If a large volume of people decide to put their property onto the rental market instead of selling it, the prices of rents will fall, putting further downward pressure on sales prices.

This is not rocket science.

How do you come to that conclusion?

Supply vs demand basics of how to determine a price of something

you have 10 properties and 5 are taken away and made available for rent meaning supply goes down??

GreeBo

Rock77 wrote: »

Someone posting about property in the property thread and others not liking the numbers so trying to shut them down was the issue.

Do you jump on everyone that posts something that’s not ‘news’ to you or just the people that mention prices decreasing?

I call out nonsense where ever I see it.
I didnt see anyone shutting down anyone else, merely pointing out that a couple of anecdotal stories doesnt really amount to much.

I dont know why you (and some others) have a bee in your bonnet about putting people into camps of "increase" or "decrease".
Either way, it doesn't apply to me, so knock it off thanks.

Browney7

OwlsZat wrote: »

No it doesn't. Doesn't prove anything about the future.

Or that rentals that were available at the start of the month are still available and that the units that come on each month with natural attrition and turnover have been added to that alongside airbnbs being added for month on month rental.

Correlation is not causation.

Many sellers may still intend to sell and don't wish to have the property up for months on end.

Once the property market is back up and running they will try avoid the perception on the part of buyers that have been following the market "that property has been up for ages, will throw in a low ball offer". Instead, the property agent will have a spiel of "XYZ estate agents are delighted to announce the coming to market of blah blah.."

fliball123

Padre_Pio wrote: »

No one in their right mind would choose renting over selling given how tenancy laws are stacked against landlords.

There are ways and means around tenancy laws look at the number looking at a period of under 6 months which circumvents the tenants rights to stay any more than 28 days. A lot of the new rentals are less than 6 months. So a lot of people in their right mind will choose this option have someone pay them rent and wait for property to start going up again.

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

I dont know whats going to happen at all. I dont think you can tell from data you have mined so far. It will take time to see whats happening.

But its the type of sales and the timeframe that will tell, and that info isnt available yet.

example of how drilling into the detail can tell a bit more about data.

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/04/2020%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/5/2020%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*mount%20argus*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2020&StartMonth=04&EndMonth=04&Address=mount%20argus

Or

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/04/2020%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/5/2020%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*cedarview*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2020&StartMonth=04&EndMonth=04&Address=cedarview

I already specified that the summer months will be a good indicator for demand as in properties sold from say the start of June onwards would most likely have been impacted by the pandemic and we will have a view on what way prices are going

Padre_Pio

fliball123 wrote: »

There are ways and means around tenancy laws look at the number looking at a period of under 6 months which circumvents the tenants rights to stay any more than 28 days. A lot of the new rentals are less than 6 months. So a lot of people in their right mind will choose this option have someone pay them rent and wait for property to start going up again.

Doesn't matter. 6 month, 3 month, if a tenant decides to overhold there's sweet FA a landlord can do. This forum is rife with landlords, accidental or intentional, who have horror stories of tenants overholding, wrecking the house and there's absolutely no recourse.

Right now the government has mandated a rent freeze and there's not a chance of the RTB enforcing an eviction in the next 3 months.
You'd want to be mad to put an expensive asset you're looking to sell into the hands of a stranger for a few years.

Also to another posters point, many people are being pushed into purchases as mortgage payments are less than rent.
If rental properties increase, rent prices decreases, giving people slightly less reason to buy. And given the uncertainty, I doubt many are buying.

Personally I pulled out of my house purchase today. I'm happy to rent for the foreseeable.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/priceregister

then go to "show more" to put in specific dates

Thanks.

Mar 24 2019 - April 24 2019 - 4758 properties sold.
Mar 24 2020 - April 24 2020 - 2583 properties sold.

Demand down 50% year on year!

Claw Hammer

fliball123 wrote: »

There are ways and means around tenancy laws look at the number looking at a period of under 6 months which circumvents the tenants rights to stay any more than 28 days. A lot of the new rentals are less than 6 months. So a lot of people in their right mind will choose this option have someone pay them rent and wait for property to start going up again.

That isn't circumenting the tenancy laws. that is attempting to use them in a particular way. It may not work out all that well either. most tenants who are offered a short lease will not be interested if it means home hunting again in a few months. The result may be a low calibre of tenant is attracted. If a mistake is made in terminating the lease it may result in the tenant acquiring part 4 rights.
If the tenant refuses to go after the 5 months and remember the calibre of tenant involved, then refuses to pay rent the owner has to go through the whole RTB/Court process to get possession. All for a few months rent.