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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Yet your argument is void of fact I have told you were to look at the supply of houses dropping, just to add another decrease in properties available in myhome today from yesterday. I also said that there were over 200 homes sold in the last 10 days yesterday . So just to give you a figure of people actually currently buying. Sold property is showing 284 properties sold in the last 2 weeks.

I dont mind you arguing a point but it would be nice if there was a bit of substance behind your argument

Do you have a link to that sold list?
Are they actual real sales? Or just estate agents marking them as sold?

fliball123

addaword wrote: »

Give it time, there will unfortunately be plenty of sales of properties of deceased and unemployed people. The price of property can only drop.

Maybe some people who have died will have their property sold for their relatives (this often takes a lot of time in some cases years) and maybe some people who were unemployed and who have a 2nd property renting will have to sell. But be very clear anyone unemployed and who has a house they are living in will not lose their house its is nearly impossible in this country to repossess and no government will pull that trigger as it would be political suicide. So there will not be many sold from those who are on the dole, you only have to look at the people who got into trouble in the last recession there were very very few repossessions

Marius34

Rock77 wrote: »

I would not disagree with you and I have read a lot of posts like that however the poster in question did not do that and was immediately jumped on.

He then gave examples and was told ‘that doesn’t represent the whole market’ (his original post clearly stated he wasn’t talking about the whole market)

Then it was ‘so what are you saying’ when it was clear he was keeping an eye on some prices and posting about their % decreases while also stating he has seen a couple of increases.

I didn't comment to ciaranmul. Although it would be interested to see if this data is something new, or it used to be similar cases in the past couple of years.

My comment was specifically on your statement about this group: "In this thread people will jump all over you for mentioning price decreases "

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Yet your argument is void of fact I have told you were to look at the supply of houses dropping, just to add another decrease in properties available in myhome today from yesterday. I also said that there were over 200 homes sold in the last 10 days yesterday . So just to give you a figure of people actually currently buying. Sold property is showing 284 properties sold in the last 2 weeks.

I dont mind you arguing a point but it would be nice if there was a bit of substance behind your argument

Believe me I know just how nonsensical my counterargument was, which was exactly the point that I think you may have missed.

But I am curious about the 284 house sold in the last 2 weeks - where are you getting that figure from?

Rock77

Marius34 wrote: »

The issue that quite often here people are manipulating the data, which doesn't really present the actual Property Market, but rather what they want to see.
For example If some report says, if "event A" would happen, "event B" may happen, and someone comes here and tells that “event B” will happen, as forecasted "Fact", this is purely data manipulation for its own interest. Many populists use this tactics to get people support.

I would not disagree with you and I have read a lot of posts like that however the poster in question did not do that and was immediately jumped on.

He then gave examples and was told ‘that doesn’t represent the whole market’ (his original post clearly stated he wasn’t talking about the whole market)

Then it was ‘so what are you saying’ when it was clear he was keeping an eye on some prices and posting about their % decreases while also stating he has seen a couple of increases.

ciaranmul

Marius34 wrote: »

The issue that quite often here people are manipulating the data, which doesn't really present the actual Property Market, but rather what they want to see.
For example If some report says, if "event A" would happen, "event B" may happen, and someone comes here and tells that “event B” will happen, as forecasted "Fact", this is purely data manipulation for its own interest. Many populists use this tactics to get people support.

The data is also very much being manipulated by estate agents, like DNG a few weeks ago, who deleted hundreds of ads and put them back up again, a lot of them with lower prices. So this doesn't show up in the area price decreases data. Also, every single ad was listed as "detached" for some strange reason. These ads and price decreases would only have been picked up on if you had your eye on the properties.

Cal4567

There is no doubt there are going to be price decreases. Market confidence will dip as we enter a great unknown and uncertainty regarding the economy.

Strongly suspect anyone on here stating otherwise is a developer or estate agent with a vested interest. Don't forget, this is coming after a period of minor stagnation in the market, this last year to 18 months or so.

The only question further is how far the drop. Too soon to tell as well. As a guess, if I fast forwarded to Christmas, 15/20% wouldn't be too much of a surprise. That's just a guess though.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I was replying to a post arguing that supply was down because there were 400 less properties on myhome since last Friday.

I presume you did not start the purchasing process since last Friday, and clearly neither did your sister.

Yet your argument is void of fact I have told you were to look at the supply of houses dropping, just to add another decrease in properties available in myhome today from yesterday. I also said that there were over 200 homes sold in the last 10 days yesterday . So just to give you a figure of people actually currently buying. Sold property is showing 284 properties sold in the last 2 weeks.

I dont mind you arguing a point but it would be nice if there was a bit of substance behind your argument

Marius34

Rock77 wrote: »

Ciaranmul,

In this thread people will jump all over you for mentioning price decreases, it’s actually quite funny. Anyway thanks for the examples, much appreciated.

The issue that quite often here people are manipulating the data, which doesn't really present the actual Property Market, but rather what they want to see.
For example If some report says, if "event A" would happen, "event B" may happen, and someone comes here and tells that “event B” will happen, as forecasted "Fact", this is purely data manipulation for its own interest. Many populists use this tactics to get people support.

thomasdylan

There's definitely going to be a good drop in prices. I can't see it being very rapid. There's not going to be many houses finished over the next 18 months.

I bought last year. I almost certainly spent more for it than it'd go for in the next few years. I'm fortunate enough in that my job is rock solid and it is a great area where houses don't come up for sale often. I think going back I'd probably buy it again but it'd be nice to have 50k less on the mortgage.

There are quite a few people I work with getting things in order to buy next year. They wouldn't have been financially affected by Covid-19 and if anything are taking home more money. The major thing for them seems to be the area to buy in and in a lot of the nicer areas in Dublin there don't tend to be houses sold all that often.

stayback

lomb wrote: »

https://youtu.be/BmK953BaEO0

Probably sums it up. “A bank will give you an umbrella when it’s dry and take it off you when it raining”

coolshannagh28

bubblypop wrote: »

The market started slowing down last year. I have seen numerous properties stay in the market for 6 months + in the area I'm looking in.
A lot taken off too, or going sale agreed & coming back on.
And that all before any kind of recession comes about

Agree the market peaked around August 19 , I sold a property then and dragged it over the line just before Christmas with a further negotiation , a neighbouring house went on the market shortly afterwards and is still on with no offers . The market had softened a lot before Covid 19 kicked in and the recession which had started has been exaggerated , it will be interesting to see how govts deal with it and how effective QE is ?

pearcider

bubblypop wrote: »

The market started slowing down last year. I have seen numerous properties stay in the market for 6 months + in the area I'm looking in.
A lot taken off too, or going sale agreed & coming back on.
And that all before any kind of recession comes about

This is a salient point. World manufacturing was already in recession in 2019 and the international credit markets started to collapse back in September. Covid 19 has merely brought this economic boom to a much quicker conclusion.

[Deleted User]

Hubertj wrote: »

Interesting reading all the same but it looks like a number of drops happened before this all happened?

The market started slowing down last year. I have seen numerous properties stay in the market for 6 months + in the area I'm looking in.
A lot taken off too, or going sale agreed & coming back on.
And that all before any kind of recession comes about

The Belly

Padre_Pio wrote: »

We are 6 weeks into what is likely a multi-year recession.

People are jumping the gun if they're expecting prices to drop immediately.

In 2008 they fell by 20%. It all depends how bad this one is.

Padre_Pio

PommieBast wrote: »

That's me forgetting to reload page..

Those reductions are in line with what I was expecting.

We are 6 weeks into what is likely a multi-year recession.

People are jumping the gun if they're expecting prices to drop immediately.

addaword

I see Ryanair are letting 3000 people go. With the best part of a million people now finding themselves without work, it will make the crash of 2008 look like a picnic.

PommieBast

ciaranmul wrote: »

Just gave 6 others above

That's me forgetting to reload page..

Those reductions are in line with what I was expecting.

pearcider

Hubertj wrote: »

Someone actually goes to the trouble of doing this? You’d want to have a lot of time on your hands! Interesting reading all the same but it looks like a number of drops happened before this all happened?

Imagine that. People going to the trouble of doing things.

ciaranmul

Rock77 wrote: »

Ciaranmul,

Thanks for the examples and info.

You clearly stated in your original post that you seen a couple of large drops, mostly 7-8% drops (I think) and even some increases.

Then you had some reply’s to say you are misleading people, it doesn’t represent the whole market, and ‘what are you trying to say’

My guess is you were trying to say you have seen some price drops and here are the examples..

In this thread people will jump all over you for mentioning price decreases, it’s actually quite funny. Anyway thanks for the examples, much appreciated.

Pretty much! Thanks

Rock77

Ciaranmul,

Thanks for the examples and info.

You clearly stated in your original post that you seen a couple of large drops, mostly 7-8% drops (I think) and even some increases.

Then you had some reply’s to say you are misleading people, it doesn’t represent the whole market, and ‘what are you trying to say’

My guess is you were trying to say you have seen some price drops and here are the examples..

In this thread people will jump all over you for mentioning price decreases, it’s actually quite funny. Anyway thanks for the examples, much appreciated.

ciaranmul

Hubertj wrote: »

Someone actually goes to the trouble of doing this? You’d want to have a lot of time on your hands! Interesting reading all the same but it looks like a number of drops happened before this all happened?

Most are from end of March/April

ciaranmul

PommieBast wrote: »

I would like to see examples of such drops in houses that are the other side of €500k. A €2-3m house is irrelevant to 99% of the people here..

Just gave 6 others above

Hubertj

ciaranmul wrote: »

I am saying that, on average, they are dropping everywhere from what I've seen. Another few examples here:

https://www.instagram.com/s/aGlnaGxpZ2h0OjE3ODU0NDMyODM0OTc4MzI5?igshid=1uk3q8ib58qk3

Someone actually goes to the trouble of doing this? You’d want to have a lot of time on your hands! Interesting reading all the same but it looks like a number of drops happened before this all happened?

PommieBast

ciaranmul wrote: »

One in Sandycove there that dropped from €2.75m to €2m... 37.5% or thereabouts? There was another one down the country that had a 41% drop. Can't remember where though, someone sent it to me last week.

I would like to see examples of such drops in houses that are the other side of €500k. A €2-3m house is irrelevant to 99% of the people here..

ciaranmul

KaiserSochez wrote: »

Hardly speaks to the entire market and a bit alarmist tbf ...are houses in the 250-350k ie: first time buyers market dropping by 30-40%?....nope.

Some simple examples in the lower price brackets:
James' Walk Rialto: 245k down to 200k (18%)
Maudlins, Naas: 245k down to 199k (18%)
Saul rd, Crumlin: 330k down to 300k (9%)
Ebeneezer tce, D8: 439k down to 399k (9%)
Castlewood tce, Rathmines: 395k down to 350k (11%)
Joseph's Place, Phibsboro: 350k down to 305k (13%)

While this may be "alarming" to some, it' also great news to others. All down to the individual.

ciaranmul

GreeBo wrote: »

So what *are* you saying?

"Breaking News: House Prices Fluctuate!"?

I am saying that, on average, they are dropping everywhere from what I've seen. Another few examples here:

https://www.instagram.com/s/aGlnaGxpZ2h0OjE3ODU0NDMyODM0OTc4MzI5?igshid=1uk3q8ib58qk3

lomb

stayback wrote: »

I’ve been watching this thread for a while now. I want to give you my view.

I don’t want to be negative but an AIP isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. If you read the t&c’s attached to it, there are so many loopholes for the banks not to honour it.

If banks get a sniff of an issue with income valuation etc they will pull the mortgage approval regardless of whatever stage you are at.

Banks will protect their money at all costs. Especially now when they are forced to offer another 3 months moratorium.

A bit of perspective I was an underwriter for 15 years for one of the big banks not anymore thank god. Not in financial services anymore .

https://youtu.be/BmK953BaEO0

ciaranmul

GreeBo wrote: »

More like 27%?

Picking expensive, luxury houses to try to prove that house prices are dropping by alarming amounts its pointless and misleading.

Apologies, 27%!

GreeBo

ciaranmul wrote: »

Did I say the entire market dropped 40%? If you look hard enough you'll find some prices have even gone up. But majority are price drops.

So what *are* you saying?

"Breaking News: House Prices Fluctuate!"?