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Share Picks 2020

beertons

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Bob Harris

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Welcome to the new paradigm , the bailout after 2008 and the current money printing has convinced investors that the good times are here forever.

A market for millenials!

littlemac1980

littlemac1980 wrote: »

If anyone is prepared to try catch a falling knife, have a look at CEMI, it’s another of the FDA approved COVID tests.

It has dropped about 30% in 2 days. Why? No idea!

No reason it won’t keep falling (I suppose) but I said I’d risk a very small amount today in case it bounces back up.

Had been going strong the past month, so likely a lot of early purchasers cashing out on the decline and possibly many more yet to come. But I said I’d take a very small punt.

I’m a total noob so don’t take my actions as any reason to buy, just said I’d post the info and draw attention and people can make up their own minds.

Also picked up a handful of IBM today on their very short dip to red. Hoping they stay steady and can maintain dividends over the next 12-18 months.

Well looks like the punt on CEMI may be paying off, the price seems to be recovering and up about 7-8 % today right now, hopefully it’s not one of the bull trap things and I don’t end up getting skewered by a Matador. Will wait for 14.5 (if it happens) and then bail.

littlevillage

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Welcome to the new paradigm , the bailout after 2008 and the current money printing has convinced investors that the good times are here forever.

When Government allow private companies to 'create' money ..... low-and-behold they create sh** loads of it.

Its possibly this Monopoly money splashing around that is keeping the Stock market ticking over ....despite the World going to hell in a hand basket :mad:

Link to a YouTube video about it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6m49vNjEGs

Personally, I'm sitting on the sidelines anxiously waiting for the big drop soo I can let rip with a wild buying spreee

littlemac1980

Zoom “bombing” this morning.

Wombatman

Galectin Therapeutics had been hanging around in my portfolio for a while slowing bleeding value.

Last two days :eek:

Bob Harris

Wombatman wrote: »

Galectin Therapeutics had been hanging around in my portfolio for a while slowing bleeding value.

Last two days :eek:

a great example of leaked info....up handsomely yesterday before this mornings press release

krissovo

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Zoom “bombing” this morning.

Thanks google :mad:

littlemac1980

Wombatman wrote: »

Galectin Therapeutics had been hanging around in my portfolio for a while slowing bleeding value.

Last two days :eek:

Nice! I’ve been holding a handful of KITOV Pharmaceuticals for a few weeks now, looks like i might finally be seeing some progress. Bit of a pop at the moment.

plasmin

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Nice! I’ve been holding a handful of KITOV Pharmaceuticals for a few weeks now, looks like i might finally be seeing some progress. Bit of a pop at the moment.

Waiting for this for a while ðŸ˜

bob mcbob

Wombatman wrote: »

Galectin Therapeutics had been hanging around in my portfolio for a while slowing bleeding value.

Last two days :eek:

I have something similar with Omega Diagnostics. It did nothing for years now the last month. :eek:

littlemac1980

plasmin wrote: »

Waiting for this for a while ðŸ˜

Do you have an exit price in mind? I only have a small amount so not really worth splitting my sells.

Shedite27

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Wonder if this is where we were yesterday?

I read that yesterday a few large funds were shorting the stocks that had bounced back too quickly and were coverign themselves, hence the big jump yesterday

Mantis Toboggan

voluntary wrote: »

The worst ever recession is hitting the world and people are buying stocks like mad. Something has to break here. Either I'm right or the the whole world has no no f..n logic :pac:

.

It's bizarre isn't it, S&P on track for its best month since October 1974.

Bob24

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

It's bizarre isn't it, S&P on track for its best month since October 1974.

4 letters: TINA

Central banks have manage to create a system whereby there is nowhere else to go. Like most administrated markets it will probably end in tears once reality kicks in, but no one knows how long it can last.

littlemac1980

Bob24 wrote: »

4 letters: TINA

Central banks have manage to create a system whereby there is nowhere else to go. Like most administrated markets it will probably end in tears once reality kicks in, but no one knows how long it can last.

You know what I find interesting.

If you look at the price charts for many companies over the past 1-2 yrs you come across some that were clearly declining in value over 12-18 months pre COVID.

Then COVID hits and naturally these shares slump along with everything else. But in some cases the bounce reversed a longer term trend and now some companies look like they are doing better than before.

Almost as if their issues pre-COVID have been lost in the “noise”

Oh, sorry to be a total noob but what’s TINA?

voluntary

Flattening the curve lol

krissovo

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Oh, sorry to be a total noob but what’s TINA?

There is no alternative, stocks basically rise because there is nothing better to invest in.

littlemac1980

krissovo wrote: »

There is no alternative, stocks basically rise because there is nothing better to invest in.

Thanks haha that’s so true though - was that the real reason everyone dropped interest rates to practically zero, so we’d all have to turn to shares?

Bob24

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Thanks haha that’s so true though - was that the real reason everyone dropped interest rates to practically zero, so we’d all have to turn to shares?

Yes - whether it is the main reason I don’t know, but I’d say at least it is seen by central bankers as a positive side-effect :-)

And besides yields, a rational reason to turn to stocks is that at least it is not debt: you own part of a productive asset which you expect will keep generating value. The price of that asset can fluctuate but at least this is something you own (as opposed as debt owed to you) and if you pick very safe/strong companies it shouldn’t disappear.

Whereas a savings account or government bonds are debt owed to you by a bank or a government, which comes with its own risk (I am hearing the phrase “debt jubilee” more than ever before in the past few weeks).

To be clear I am not saying everyone should convert all their wealth in stocks, but I am growing more and more wary about any way to store value which involves someone else having a debt towards me, without paying me interest, and in a currency which is being printed like it is is going out of fashion and has been losing value over time (which is the case of most major world currencies).

Another side effect of zero and negative interest rates which central bankers will like a lot less is that besides stocks these are therefore pushing people towards things like gold (on the safe side) and Bitcoin (on the more adventurous side). Or a mix of gold and stocks: Franco Nevada is a gold streaming company I like whose stock has done rather well this year: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FNV/

voluntary

I think FED and other central banks wanted to react fast, unlike in 2008 to prevent a large crisis, however, the law of unintended consequences and side effects kicked in. The economy is dead as it would be, money is flying around, the stock market balloon is blowing. I don't think that's the way it was intended maybe conspiracy theory fans would say this is exactly like it was intended to give people in power some extra time to hide their wealth from the imminent destruction.

Bob24

voluntary wrote: »

I think FED and other central banks wanted to react fast, unlike in 2008 to prevent a large crisis, however, the law of unintended consequences and side effects kicked in. The economy is dead as it would be, money is flying around, the stock market balloon is blowing. I don't think that's the way it was intended maybe conspiracy theory fans would say this is exactly like it was intended to give people in power some extra time to hide their wealth from the imminent destruction.

I do think preventing a stock market collapse is a significant part of the rational for recent central bank actions though (at least the Fed and most certainly the BoJ which purchases stock ETFs, it is probably a smaller concern for the ECB).

And this is not just to help the ones in power (although the well connected are closer to the money tap and probably get a head start about key monetary policy announcements which IMO is rigging the game). Between the fact that the US (and other countries) has allowed its economy to be over-financialised and the fact that a lot of Americans rely on a stocks portfolio so much for their retirement, that country has put itself in a situation whereby a market crash would have dire consequences in the “real” world.

ShineOn7

This lack of complete stock market meltdown is utter baffling to me too

I have savings I was going to invest in Shares now with a view to not cash out for a minimum of 5 years. But what the hell is going on? It just goes to show you how much of this is completely engineered. We should be seeing drops below that even of 2008

Can the Fed keep throwing money at this all year?

Should I wait another few months?

Shares I'm interested in: (holding for a minimum of 5 years, maybe some for 10)

Amazon (currently soaring for obvious reasons)
Alphabet (Google)
Apple
Facebook

Maybes:

RyanAir (given the current situation, how the hell is this not at 7 Euros or even lower?)
Disney
Berkshire Hathaway class B stock

I'm looking for a share that is down 50% or more on it's January price, but has strong potential to return to well above it's January price by the year 2025

Or .... have I missed the boat on this completely and the time to get in was about 3 or 4 weeks ago?

voluntary

My gut tells me FED will only stop when the inflation picks up. Not sure what will they do if/when the economy will still be in pieces but the inflation hits 5% or so.

"There are no easy solutions to stagflation.

Monetary policy can generally try to reduce inflation (higher interest rates) or increase economic growth (cut interest rates). Monetary policy cannot solve both inflation and recession at the same time."
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/stagflation/

voluntary

hottipper

Looking like we get a pull back today lets see if it holds- might be a red week ahead looking shaky for me anyways

manonboard

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Or .... have I missed the boat on this completely and the time to get in was about 3 or 4 weeks ago?

On your expensive stocks, I think the time for any discount like you wanted is definitely passed. Logical of you to think not of course at the time. Any rational personal would expect the market to continue falling judging from previous crashes.
However, the sheer abundance of money being pumped in, and now the commitment to keep doing it is driving prices. They are currently not connected to their underlying economic value.
I waited also. Expected more falls, maybe a gradual decline.. but the monetary policy is stronger at the moment. I pulled the trigger in the last 2 weeks. Not at the height of the fake 'bull trap' i saw, but coming slightly off it. Now things are increasing.

Im expecting things to continue to rise purely because monetary policy has stopped the bottom crash.. and the gradual optimism returning (and summer) for people is pushing things higher.
I would love to buy some Amazon but its just ridiculous how high its climbed. Higher than its peak.

Microsoft to me would be a better buy given its systemic connections with most businesses. It will get the big contracts like coca cola etc for cloud etc.

I think you will not see the 50pc discount again. Maybe there will be another dip after the next wave of infections forces a shut down again. 50pc is done and over though. Too much money being pushed in, and too many retirement portfolios looking to make money.

voluntary

Europe is closed today lads.

Outkast_IRE

I sold my Disney and Ryanair yesterday morning that i bought back in March. Looking at 10% profit after fees, which i am quite happy with.
Disney had dropped €7 or more by COB yesterday so i made a decent move there.

I am sidelining my money for a week or two. Some horrendous numbers are due to be released by companies in the next few weeks that will push everything to a negative. (in theory )

theboringfox

Was looking to get out of Disney myself after the recent jumps. Real boom or bust one. My rationale for staying is the potential they have to compete with netflix. I think the parks are going to be long time getting back to normal. Tough to compete with netflix first mover advantage and not sure how many will keep up subscriptions. Bought at 95 and leaning get out. Carries a good bit of debt too.

Interested in comments above on vmware. That is one on a watch list for me.

Jim2007

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm looking for a share that is down 50% or more on it's January price, but has strong potential to return to well above it's January price by the year 2025

Or .... have I missed the boat on this completely and the time to get in was about 3 or 4 weeks ago?

Trying to time the market, while chasing the crowd... what do you expect?

All around the first world the amateurs are getting aboard for the next ride and guess which shares they want to buy?