cunnifferous wrote: Below 15% of the workforce is public sector. So I wouldn't call it a huge section of society.
cunnifferous wrote: » Below 15% of the workforce is public sector. So I wouldn't call it a huge section of society. .
Marius34 wrote: » As you are here to provide some information, and bring your advice. Just to bring more balance, so audience can have better idea of those unemployment predictions. I see you using Central Bank as trustable source. Would you mind to give more details what is Central Bank prediction for the rest of the year? What this 25% unemployment means, is it Permanent or Temporal, any idea if people with Covid-19 wage subsidy schema are counted as unemployed?
Brussels Sprout wrote: » Even before Covid-19, the highlighted people would have struggled to afford the average house given how difficult that has been in recent years for most people. The people who would previously have been bidding for the 250k+ house - how many of them will be affected?
pearcider wrote: » I trust their short term projections (for the next quarter) as they have good data and their nowcasts are highly accurate and subject to only minor revisions. So if they say 25% unemployment for Q2 I believe them. Long term their record is horrible partly because the models don’t work that far out but also partly because they have created the mess we are in with the bailout culture for big business and banks. So when they say there will be a v shaped recovery they are really just being politically correct at that stage. The macro picture (not just covid 19 but also the fiscal monetary and demographics picture) is pretty grim for the entire world. The whole world is in economic contraction and any potential restructuring of the economy will be retarded by the debt load and the bailouts of the zombie companies who in a fair world should be made bankrupt. You can’t make a dent in 25% unemployment over a few months. Most of the lost jobs are lost for at least 2 or 3 years and I’d say half of them are gone forever since restaurants and hotels operate on tiny margins. Only when the world economy is restructured will new jobs be created in new industries and that will take several years. These never ending bailouts will make that restructuring all the more painful and drawn out.
Marius34 wrote: » I don't think it's nice to come up with this kind of "Facts", about coming Armagedon, with a purpose to scare anyone about total collapse. Meanwhile not knowing, or hiding what's behind this data. In case you didn't know: Based on Central Bank unemployment to Peak in Q2, due to Covid-19 related payments: " if all those receiving Covid-19 related payments are counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would rise to around 25 per cent in the second quarter." I'm confident you would never share this information.
addaword wrote: » Not only that, but because of the economic collapse it is inevitable public sector salaries will be cut.
[Deleted User] wrote: » Thanks nurses and doctors and ambulance staff for all your hard work and sacrifice during the covid emergency. Now we are going to cut your wages.
eagle eye wrote: » Isn't there a massive shortage of houses? I'm sure lots of planned houses will not be built during a downturn?
Padre_Pio wrote: » I disagree. There's a lot of potential buyers in these bracket. 2 people on relatively low 30k a year can get a FTB mortgage of 210k, plus their 10% puts them on the 250k house bracket. Just on Property Register and picked a random month for Dublin last year. Half of properties sold under €350k. There's a lot of potential buyers who are on the Covid payment and will start eating into their deposit to pay bills.
Assetbacked wrote: » There is a shortage of affordable housing, but there is a lot of planning permission through the planning process and construction workers due to get back to work in the next few weeks so we will see supply start to pick up. At the same time, with job losses and no new jobs being created, demand won't rise. More supply and no increase in demand is the projection for the next 6-12 months.
The Student wrote: » I would think if demand is not increasing developers more likely to hold back on too much supply in case they can't sell at prices to cover cost and profit. I expect a complete slowdown in the property market.
Assetbacked wrote: » Demand is not increasing, that doesn't necessarily mean it is decreasing. There is still demand for new homes and therefore money to be made for those that build them. Restricting supy means no money is to be made, that doesn't make sense where there is a market to sell into.
The Student wrote: » Supply decreases in a falling market. Developers will just sit on the land.
Maitguel wrote: » Another property I was watching sold at auction today at 290k or 100k over the initial reserve. Property is nice but needed a lot of work. The daft ad is down now but it was located in Co. Limerick and a DNG auction today. Property was a detached house on an acre of land but needed a serious refurb
addaword wrote: » Give it time, there will unfortunately be plenty of sales of properties of deceased and unemployed people. The price of property can only drop.
The Belly wrote: » Depends on if they can afford to.
cd76 wrote: » ..absolutely. Happening already.
The Belly wrote: » The market for new homes will shrink as availability of credit and those that qualify reduces.
ciaranmul wrote: » I'm trying to keep an eye on price drops in Dublin as best I can over on www.instagram.com/crazyhouseprices I'm getting a lot of messages from worried folks who have gone sale agreed but don't know whether to back out and also a lot of folks whose mortgages have been reduced or even revoked because of Covid payments. I've seen some properties drop as much as 40%, most around 7-8% and some have even gone up in price!
Pablo_Flox wrote: » Can you show an example of a property that has dropped 40% since March?
ciaranmul wrote: » One in Sandycove there that dropped from €2.75m to €2m... 37.5% or thereabouts? There was another one down the country that had a 41% drop. Can't remember where though, someone sent it to me last week.
KaiserSochez wrote: » Hardly speaks to the entire market and a bit alarmist tbf ...are houses in the 250-350k ie: first time buyers market dropping by 30-40%?....nope.
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