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Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

q85dw7osi4lebg

As per title, have we reached the bottom ?

Don't think we'll see the likes of $3200 ever again.

$5150 at time of posting.

Back in the mainstream media once more.

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Thargor

GooglePlus wrote: »

40% is madness when you think about it.

Just under half of a profit made goes bye bye, it would make you sick to your stomach driving home, avoiding every pothole on the road.

The secret to investing in Ireland is to rack up massive losses first then you can write off future capital gains against that, you cant lose that way :pac:

charlesanto

cnocbui wrote: »

...all the money actually goes on having a public sector with an average salary of €80,000 a year, the second highest in the EU, after Luxembourg.

Really that high ?

cnocbui

charlesanto wrote: »

Really that high ?

Possibly not. I hadn't really taken in they were talking in PPP - Purchasing power parity, though given one excuse I have seen for Ireland having high public salaries is the high cost of living, I would have thought that would tend to deflate the figures, not exagerate.

https://www.europeandatajournalism.eu/eng/News/Data-news/Public-employees-comparisons-between-European-countries-are-deceptive

cooperguy

cnocbui wrote: »

Why stop there? Ireland has the highest inheritance taxes in the world. What other country have you ever heard of that taxes income from bank interest at 41%?. Then there's VAT at 23% - again, one of the highest rates in the world.

I think the only thing stopping a water-rates style revolution in this country is that most economic indicators are calculated and reported on as a percentage of GDP, which in Ireland is massively inflated by US multinationals.

This GDP smokescreen is the saviour of Irish governments; personal taxation appears low as it's almost always reported as a percentage of GDP. Similarly, it makes the government look good on spending; Hey look, Ireland has one of the highest expenditures on healthcare in the OECD, as a percentage of GDP.

The government can't lose so long as it's always a percentage of GDP. On the one hand it makes it look as if they aren't robbing people blind while on the other hand it makes them look like big spenders.

As far as I can ascertain, all the money actally goes on having a public sector with an average salary of €80,000 a year, the second highest in the EU, after Luxembourg.

Yes, I admit to being triggered.

Ireland's spending, when measured by GDP, would look smaller because GDP is inflated. Personal taxation isnt calculated as a percentage of GDP, but personal taxation is low here for the majority of the population (even if everyone doesn't realise it) which is why there isnt a revolution. Ireland also has a large portion of VAT free items which is different to a number of other countries which may have a lower rate.

Bob24

Taxation on capital for individuals is stupidly high (which is what would affect what we are discussing here).

Taxation on corporations (especially multinationals) is bottom low and taxation on workers if you include all related taxes and not just income tax is also rather low v.s. other European countries (but our tax brackets are hitting medium and medium/high earners disproportionally strongly). Here is a comparison and tax burden on labour in EU countries giving Ireland as the third lowest: https://www.institutmolinari.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2019/07/tax_burden_EU_2019.pdf

So I don’t think it is fair to say taxation is high in Ireland in general. The problem for us in this thread is that taxation for individual investors is punitive (many counties would have either much lower CGT, DIRT, and dividends taxation, or would have tax rules providing exemption/reduction of these taxes taxes for long term individual investors up to a certain amount).

cooperguy

Bob24 wrote: »

Taxation on capital for individuals is stupidly high (which is what would affect what we are discussing here).

Taxation on corporations (especially multinationals) is bottom low and taxation on workers if you include all related taxes and not just income tax is also rather low v.s. other European countries (but our tax brackets are hitting medium and medium/high earners disproportionally strongly). Here is a comparison and tax burden on labour in EU countries giving Ireland as the third lowest: https://www.institutmolinari.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2019/07/tax_burden_EU_2019.pdf

So I don’t think it is fair to say taxation is high in Ireland in general. The problem for us in this thread is that taxation for individual investors is punitive (many counties would have either much lower CGT, DIRT, and dividends taxation, or would have tax rules providing exemption/reduction of these taxes taxes for long term individual investors up to a certain amount).

Only thing Id add to that is while Corporate tax rate is low, our income from it is incredibly high. Ireland's corporate tax as a percentage of income is one of the highest on the OECD.

Our individual taxes on investors are high. But our effective income tax rates are not, unless you're talking about the top few percent of earners

Bob24

cooperguy wrote: »

Only thing Id add to that is while Corporate tax rate is low, our income from it is incredibly high. Ireland's corporate tax as a percentage of income is one of the highest on the OECD.

Our individual taxes on investors are high. But our effective income tax rates are not, unless you're talking about the top few percent of earners

Yes 100% agree, this is a choice we are making as a country: dirt cheap corporate tax to attract FDI but relatively to our population and the size of our economy even those low rates are bringing in sizeable tax amount as we are attracting capital which would never have came to Ireland otherwise.

I would also add that there is actually a cohort of income tax payers in the 45k-75k income bracket which are not served very well by our tax system. A good chunck of their income is taxed at 40% which is very high for someone who is a medium/high earner (i.e. a better than the average person but not genuinely a top earner). This is because we only have 2 tax rates and the second rates is reached at a rather low income band (many countries would go from 20% to 40% a lot more gradually with more tax bands and possibly even go past 40% for extremely high income bands). I suspect a few posters here are in that kind of income bracket and thus rightly feel some tax pressure. But still as a whole labour taxation in Ireland is rather low (another reason is that employer PRSI type of contributions are rather low compared to EU average and while they are not paid directly by employees they are very much part of labour taxation and thus indirectly paid for by employees as higher rates for these would result in lower wages as employers are only concerned with their their total labour cost regardless how it is structured and would transfer the extra labour taxation cost to their employees though lower wages).

GooglePlus

Looking through Reddit and a few other articles, I'm seeing predictions of bitcoin reaching anywhere from 125k into the millions region in the coming years.

Will this halving bring anything with it and could it really get that high or is it as likely for the arse to fall out of it?

q85dw7osi4lebg

GooglePlus wrote: »

Looking through Reddit and a few other articles, I'm seeing predictions of bitcoin reaching anywhere from 125k into the millions region in the coming years.

Will this halving bring anything with it and could it really get that high or is it as likely for the arse to fall out of it?

Anyone's guess really.

Personally see $100,000 before 2022 is out, $500,000 before the decade is out, hence why I'm going bal1s deep.

Only buy what you can afford to lose etc.

It's a scare digital asset that is only getting scarcer.

Arrival

GooglePlus wrote: »

Looking through Reddit and a few other articles, I'm seeing predictions of bitcoin reaching anywhere from 125k into the millions region in the coming years.

Will this halving bring anything with it and could it really get that high or is it as likely for the arse to fall out of it?

You should start with reading the white paper -- it's only 9 pages -- and go from there in learning for yourself and seeing if you're interested in seeing where it could potentially go.

It's already reached >$20k, it would be absolutely mind blowing if it didn't at least surpass that again over the next couple of years, before the 2024 halving. It would feel more risky to not own any BTC than to own some at this stage.

But as for actual estimates of future values, historically the more conservative, but well reasoned, estimates ended up being much lower than the value in reality. Look for the conservative estimates. Previous bull runs were absolute insanity, and it's going to be interesting to see if the Stock to Flow model remains accurate after this halving. If it does then that combined with the mass hype of more and more people learning about it, buying it and the media giving further coverage about it would mean it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy

Good article here on the halving:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lukefitzpatrick/2020/04/27/bitcoin-halving-a-new-class-of-bitcoin-millionaires-may-emerge/#7a1b232761fc

makeorbrake

GooglePlus wrote: »

Looking through Reddit and a few other articles, I'm seeing predictions of bitcoin reaching anywhere from 125k into the millions region in the coming years.

I'ts not the sort of thing that sparks ridicule these days - but don't get carried away. I was very happy earlier this year when it was at $10k. I'll be ecstatic if it can close above that this year (and anything above that is bonus territory). That's not to say that I don't believe it can hit high numbers - I wouldn't be too surprised if it got there - but I just think its healthier to treat that possibility as bonus territory (all the while, understanding that bitcoin is formative - and can still fall on its face, potentially).
This is still early days for cryptocurrency (despite what some might think). It's formative. From the digital gold/uncorrelated asset use case, the stage is set for bitcoin - with the current 'money printer go bbrrrr' / Modern Monetary Theory scenario. However, deflation/stagflation/inflation - nobody really knows how this plays out in its entirety as we have not been here before (with these particular circumstances).

It's certainly gotten people to think 'what is money' - and that leads to a re-examination of bitcoin as hard money - which is good. There has been encouraging news in terms of an increase in crypto exchange account openings. Furthermore, we just passed the 3 million marker in terms of the number of bitcoin addresses holding 0.1 BTC or more for the first time.

GooglePlus wrote: »

Will this halving bring anything with it and could it really get that high or is it as likely for the arse to fall out of it?

The halving could well be a non event. On the one hand, some believe that 'it's priced in' on the basis that markets are efficient. Others believe the opposite. Some believe that there will be a short term drop in price. As the miners reward is cut in half, less efficient miners will come under pressure and they may be forced to sell bitcoin to cover costs. On the flipside, it could be that these guys got cleared out already on March 12 - following the market crash.

In the long run though, when it comes to the supply side, there will be much less bitcoin getting dumped onto the market by miners going forward - meaning a scarce asset will have become much scarcer still. That's positive - and likely to have a positive effect on price. However, more effort is required to establish stronger use case for bitcoin on the demand side.

If it has peaked your interest, then delve a bit deeper. Start with the whitepaper as someone suggested and figure out in your own mind if there's something tangible in it.

GooglePlus

Thanks all, great info there. I'll have a look at the white paper first off.

Lex Luthor

great that BTC finally broke through that $7800 very strong resistance

Onwards and upwards to the next level of $8400

Got into Digibyte yesterday and had a nice 12% pump aswell, greens all round. Nice change from last month

Lex Luthor

just checked DGB, up 40% since yesterday

Bob24

Lex Luthor wrote: »

great that BTC finally broke through that $7800 very strong resistance

Onwards and upwards to the next level of $8400

Got into Digibyte yesterday and had a nice 12% pump aswell, greens all round. Nice change from last month

The one thing I don't like about the price action of the past few weeks is the strong correlation with stock markets. Even with all the money printing and cash injections of central banks, I suspect stock market are due for a second leg of correction eventually. If BTC is to remain correlated this wouldn't be good news for crypto prices.

cnocbui

If the market was conventionally rational, then your concern would be justified, but I have a sneaking suspicion there might not be another plummet in equities - which in the wisdom of the past there should be, but central banks have destroyed interest rates so there's equities, art, classic cars, whiskey, property (outside of Ireland) and stuff all else left.

Bob24

cnocbui wrote: »

If the market was conventionally rational, then your concern would be justified, but I have a sneaking suspicion there might not be another plummet in equities - which in the wisdom of the past there should be, but central banks have destroyed interest rates so there's equities, art, classic cars, whiskey, property (outside of Ireland) and stuff all else left.

Yeah for sure, agree central banks are going nuclear and this level of market intervention and price fixing by monetary authorities at a global scale hasn't been seen in a very long time, if ever. And definitely agree they are doing all they can to keep share prices up and push more savers to the stock market.

But I think the flip side of the (bit)coin is that:
- a massive shutdown of the global economy such as what we are currently experiencing is an equally peculiar event pushing prices the other direction
- market control and price fixing only works to a certain extend and for a certain time; eventually reality comes back to hit the system

So the scenario you mention definitely isn't one I am discarding and yes this game could keep going for a good while (although eventually it will have to end). But I think there are also arguments not to discard a a further drop.

Lex Luthor

getting above the 200 EMA is important
Now that BTC is above it, I am certainly a bit more bullish

Arrival

Was thinking last night about buying a bit more only for it to have gone up further today. Honestly hope this isn't the start of an actual steady increase, absolutely sickened I didn't buy more when it hit €3.5k in March, assumed then that since it was just the beginning of the pandemic it would've stayed there for a bit or dipped further

q85dw7osi4lebg

Arrival wrote: »

Was thinking last night about buying a bit more only for it to have gone up further today. Honestly hope this isn't the start of an actual steady increase, absolutely sickened I didn't buy more when it hit €3.5k in March, assumed then that since it was just the beginning of the pandemic it would've stayed there for a bit or dipped further

Didn't hang around that price for long so I doubt too many bought big at it. Have been steadily buying a few hundred a week since though, I think the lowest I got in was $4800 or so in March. Bought $400 at $8150 this morning, don't mind as I know we'll be double this price within the year. A grand here or a grand there is not worth the stress for me. The missus has been talking about buying it for a week now and she has HEDL off, hoping for a dip. Didn't take my advice. Have a friend doing the same, not buying until it goes below 6k again, the same chap who said he was waiting for 5k when we were at 8k previously and subsequently didn't buy the dip because he thought it was going to go lower ! :rolleyes:

Lex Luthor

Arrival wrote: »

Was thinking last night about buying a bit more only for it to have gone up further today. Honestly hope this isn't the start of an actual steady increase, absolutely sickened I didn't buy more when it hit €3.5k in March, assumed then that since it was just the beginning of the pandemic it would've stayed there for a bit or dipped further

just thank yourself you did buy some at that level

Lex Luthor

Lex Luthor wrote: »

great that BTC finally broke through that $7800 very strong resistance

Onwards and upwards to the next level of $8400

wasnt expecting it this fast, but testing the $8400 resistance now and giving it socks
The trend is extremely strong at the moment, shorts will get rekt if they try to short this resistance

FFVII

Lex Luthor wrote: »

wasnt expecting it this fast, but testing the $8400 resistance now and giving it socks
The trend is extremely strong at the moment, shorts will get rekt if they try to short this resistance

Where did you get 8400

Thargor

Coinbase has crashed, always a good sign.

Lex Luthor

FFVII wrote: »

Where did you get 8400

Lex Luthor

pre halving fomo is in full swing

BTC is looking at $8950 resistance now

Blew through $8400 as if it wasnt there

Arrival

Ahhh, disappointment of not getting more during the recent opportunities aside, it feels good to watch the portfolio shoot up nicely in a matter of hours. Comparing the portfolio with how much lower it was just last month is also fairly fascinating. Just a small taste of the great things to come hopefully

Lex Luthor

human nature

when its dropping nobody wants to buy for fear of it going lower
when its pumping, everyone wishing it would go back down

Arrival

Lex Luthor wrote: »

human nature

when its dropping nobody wants to buy for fear of it going lower
when its pumping, everyone wishing it would go back down

Oh I know that, I always bought during the dips and the crashes when I could. It's just this one I missed out on. Either way, happy days

Lex Luthor

you might be lucky and get more on a dip here, BTC needs to cool off and this is possibly a range it could happen

I'd sit tight and see what happens in the next 24hrs