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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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JJJackal

cnocbui wrote: »

There hasn't been meaningful inflation in the west for over a decade. It's an economic concept that no longer exists, for practical purposes. Helicopter money is never of a sufficient scale to move the needle. Australia did it in 2010 and it got to 3% then was back at 1% 2 years later.

The West has not faced a crisis or predicted recession/depression like this in nearly 80 years

cnocbui

JJJackal wrote: »

If we end up with so called helicopter money there will be inflation? If there is inflation house prices will rise

Time will tell

There hasn't been meaningful inflation in the west for over a decade. It's an economic concept that no longer exists, for practical purposes. Helicopter money is never of a sufficient scale to move the needle. Australia did it in 2010 and it got to 3% then was back at 1% 2 years later.

eagle eye

Larbre34 wrote:

Its not a difficult equation. A market glut combined with reduced purchasing power, especially in the foundation sector of the market, = price crash.

I get that but people are taking houses that off the market. There's around a 5% reduction in houses on the market in the last five days.
If you couple that with the printing of money then things mightn't change much. You'll need to see more houses on the market for prices to come down.

JJJackal

Larbre34 wrote: »

Its not a difficult equation. A market glut combined with reduced purchasing power, especially in the foundation sector of the market, = price crash.

I'm neither a broker nor an analyst, but I have worked in commercial planning consultancy for 25 years in different parts of the world, and I've seen it all.

If we end up with so called helicopter money there will be inflation? If there is inflation house prices will rise

Time will tell

Hubertj

Larbre34 wrote: »

Its not a difficult equation. A market glut combined with reduced purchasing power, especially in the foundation sector of the market, = price crash.

I'm neither a broker nor an analyst, but I have worked in commercial planning consultancy for 25 years in different parts of the world, and I've seen it all.

Where is there a market glut?

cnocbui

So this pandemic solved the supposed shortage of housing problem in Dublin in just 4 weeks . Every cloud has a silver lining.

Larbre34

Its not a difficult equation. A market glut combined with reduced purchasing power, especially in the foundation sector of the market, = price crash.

I'm neither a broker nor an analyst, but I have worked in commercial planning consultancy for 25 years in different parts of the world, and I've seen it all.

Zenify

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm on the phone app so can't link but David McWilliams wrote about it and about the ECB. France have been talking about it for two weeks now. They are going to print money to try and keep control of debt.

I understand that there will be more printing of money QE etc. And I know that was your point in the post I replied to. My question wasnt specific to your point I was just using that for some previous posts that were going on here. My argument is that all this printing of money isnt going to lead to hiper inflation. I did mention that I was going off from your topic.

They couldn't even get inflation printing money during an economic boom. Inflation is usually linked to higher wages (I know people in HR and they are cutting loads of wages) and oil is a major factor/contributor/result of inflation too. We know how that's going. I know inflation is far more complicated than my simplistic points but history tells us that in economic downturns we see deflation not inflation.

ionapaul

Maitguel wrote: »

I am only trying to bring balance to the debate. Those claiming the arse is about to fall out have not put forward any transactions to support this, I have. Taking this property as an example do people honestly think it will be selling for €525k (30% drop from ask) within 12 months from now? Despite the fact majority of people who can afford this house their jobs have not been affected and will be fine post lockdown.

If houses like that are available for €525k at any point in the next few years I'm going to be buying! Happy for my own property to drop 30% at the same time, the gap between where I'm at and more desirable property will narrow significantly compared to today, and we should still be OK when it comes to the mortgage, deposit etc...

Just can't see it happening; though the exact same was said in 2007/2008 by a lot of people.

cute geoge

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Anytime you see a property sold with just one bid but it then appears again in a number of months, that's the auction house having bid themselves

So you are saying the auction house are permitted to bid on a house they are selling themselves???
The sale price was far in excess of the reserve and this sale price was the new reserve when reissued for auction the second time ,I just think people should be wary of some of the tactics by bidx1 to increase the prices of property they auction

Marius34

lalababa wrote: »

Was anybody following the bidx1 auction ..was it Friday??
I was just on their site and they seem to have sold very little..albeit for reasonable vendor prices.
Like they only sold 10% of properties.
Of course people would have major difficulty with viewings/surveyance/conveyance etc.

I'm curious where did you get this?
I don't know how many properties were there on sale, but 10% doesn't sound reasonable at all.
I thought there were not many properties on sale for last Friday... Any idea how many properties were for Sale?

Mad_maxx

cute geoge wrote: »

Maybe people have cottoned on the trickery of bidx1 auctions .I saw a house sold by bidx1 auction in local town last year for 115k with reserve of 80k ,exact same house pops up in an auction at the start of this year at 115k reserve price .Advertised as sold at 118k with a list of the bids along side it .2 months later I checked the ppr and the same house was shown as sold for 80k on the date of the auction .I smell a rat with bidx1

Anytime you see a property sold with just one bid but it then appears again in a number of months, that's the auction house having bid themselves

eagle eye

Zenify wrote:

I haven't seen this massive inflation and euro devaluing anywhere else online other than boards. Are there any creditable sources?

I'm on the phone app so can't link but David McWilliams wrote about it and about the ECB. France have been talking about it for two weeks now. They are going to print money to try and keep control of debt.

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

the middle class are already taxed to their eyeballs time to widen the tax net - lots of others not paying any tax in this country

Absolutely, however, I think the answer is to reduce taxation and government expenditure. Broadening the net is fine, so long as it's an increase in corporate tax in order to reduce the individual tax burden, which is very high in this country.

Blueshoe

cute geoge wrote: »

Maybe people have cottoned on the trickery of bidx1 auctions .I saw a house sold by bidx1 auction in local town last year for 115k with reserve of 80k ,exact same house pops up in an auction at the start of this year at 115k reserve price .Advertised as sold at 118k with a list of the bids along side it .2 months later I checked the ppr and the same house was shown as sold for 80k on the date of the auction .I smell a rat with bidx1

What do you think they are doing?

cute geoge

lalababa wrote: »

Was anybody following the bidx1 auction ..was it Friday??
I was just on their site and they seem to have sold very little..albeit for reasonable vendor prices.
Like they only sold 10% of properties.
Of course people would have major difficulty with viewings/surveyance/conveyance etc.

Maybe people have cottoned on the trickery of bidx1 auctions .I saw a house sold by bidx1 auction in local town last year for 115k with reserve of 80k ,exact same house pops up in an auction at the start of this year at 115k reserve price .Advertised as sold at 118k with a list of the bids along side it .2 months later I checked the ppr and the same house was shown as sold for 80k on the date of the auction .I smell a rat with bidx1

Zenify

eagle eye wrote: »

If the Euro gets devalued then that affects the price of houses and it's very likely to happen.
If there are less houses for sale that affects prices.
Almost 1000 less houses for sale than a week ago on myhome and daft.

I haven't seen this massive inflation and euro devaluing anywhere else online other than boards. Are there any creditable sources? The usual facts brigade usually only look for the facts arguing against property price drops. When the argument is the other way they dont seem to be shouting..

This is a little off topic about what you are talking about but I'm addressing the mantra of inflation and printing money.

An article just went up on the FT this morning about deflation of the euro and massive reduction in prices.

https://www.ft.com/content/bdd9a68e-848b-11ea-b872-8db45d5f6714

"Headline US inflation will, therefore, fall markedly below the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target, while the eurozone and Japan will record negative inflation in a matter of months. That, however, is far from the end of the story"

"The impact on eurozone inflation is expected be more severe, taking the headline rate slightly into negative territory almost immediately"

It does argue that a shortage of food and labour due to lockdown could have an effect on staples and increase them.

You can usually get past the FT paywall by googling the headline

"The deflation threat from the virus will be long lasting"

lalababa

Was anybody following the bidx1 auction ..was it Friday??
I was just on their site and they seem to have sold very little..albeit for reasonable vendor prices.
Like they only sold 10% of properties.
Of course people would have major difficulty with viewings/surveyance/conveyance etc.

cnocbui

Blueshoe wrote: »

Hoping to buy a Midlands apartment or 3 bed house. Before this crisis I was attending viewings and also went down the bid X 1 auction route.
There isn't a huge selection of properties out there within my price range but those properties always had lots of interest from others in similar positions. End selling figures always ended up well above asking.

I don't really see the lower end of the market being affected. I would imagine it will be the higher priced properties that might see a bit of a haircut. Maybe

I live in an area in the midlands with high amenity values, and until the last 12 months, almost nothing has been built in the last 10 years, almost certainly because of the market value being below construction cost problem. More common has been the renovation and extension of existing properties. So basically the supply has been almost static for a decade.

That would be the basis for your problem with selection, I would think. This crisis will have to produce an appreciable increase in supply for there to be a meaningful drop in prices.

combat14

the middle class are already taxed to their eyeballs time to widen the tax net - lots of others not paying any tax in this country

lalababa

combat14 wrote: »

Bank stress tests Feb pre-covid predicted 13.5% house price drops in event of economic shock

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/irish-property-prices-forecast-to-fall-in-bank-stress-tests-1.4157946%3fmode=amp

Predictions of 15-20% house price drops in March before full significance of 1,000,000 on social welfare and country potentially borrowing an extra €30 billion euro

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/irish-property-prices-forecast-to-fall-in-bank-stress-tests-1.4157946%3fmode=amp

If this goes on much longer- government will have to start reducing "taper" the covid payment and even consider reducing regular social welfare, cutting public service pay and raising all sorts of taxes ... I.e. all bets off on extent house price drops then....... but for now 15-20% house price drop sounds reasonable subject to further drops depending on the length and extent of this crisis

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/coronavirus-ireland-finance-minister-paschal-18133224.amp

Or.... borrow @ .5% till the cows come home and when they do...cut social housing building and tax the middle classes.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

beauf wrote: »

Some suggested 40% in a few weeks.

The stats are there if anyone wants to watch prices.

LoL

beauf

Some suggested 40% in a few weeks.

The stats are there if anyone wants to watch prices.

Maitguel

BillyBiggs wrote: »

If one house sold in Ranelagh above it’s asking price, the property market is sorted.

I am only trying to bring balance to the debate. Those claiming the arse is about to fall out have not put forward any transactions to support this, I have. Taking this property as an example do people honestly think it will be selling for €525k (30% drop from ask) within 12 months from now? Despite the fact majority of people who can afford this house their jobs have not been affected and will be fine post lockdown.

Blueshoe

Hoping to buy a Midlands apartment or 3 bed house. Before this crisis I was attending viewings and also went down the bid X 1 auction route.
There isn't a huge selection of properties out there within my price range but those properties always had lots of interest from others in similar positions. End selling figures always ended up well above asking.

I don't really see the lower end of the market being affected. I would imagine it will be the higher priced properties that might see a bit of a haircut. Maybe

coff66

Maitguel wrote: »

I heard an EA on down to business yesterday. She said a property (it was either Ranelagh or Rathmines) went sale agreed in a week €50k over ask at approx €775k and the purchasers never set foot in it! All done through virtual viewings. Now if this is true it’s bodes very well for the future and demonstrates that there is demand for the right property.

Sale agreed is not sold, any number of factors could influence final selling price between now and potential closing.

eagle eye

If the Euro gets devalued then that affects the price of houses and it's very likely to happen.
If there are less houses for sale that affects prices.
Almost 1000 less houses for sale than a week ago on myhome and daft.

BillyBiggs

Maitguel wrote: »

I heard an EA on down to business yesterday. She said a property (it was either Ranelagh or Rathmines) went sale agreed in a week €50k over ask at approx €775k and the purchasers never set foot in it! All done through virtual viewings. Now if this is true it’s bodes very well for the future and demonstrates that there is demand for the right property.

If one house sold in Ranelagh above it’s asking price, the property market is sorted.

Hubertj

padser wrote: »

Thats either

A) extremely unusual or
total bullsh1t

EA has a large vested interest in pretending property market is still functional

Looks to me like it would be a family home. For the buyer it could be their forever home and as others have said there is a finite supply of houses in the area. Therefore increases or decrease in value over 30-40 years might not matter to them if they have secure employment.

Maitguel

The_Conductor wrote: »

Entirely plausible- but those cases are complete outliers.
The sellers were realistic or even generous with their expectations.
The buyers are familiar with the area- and possibly if not that particular property, other properties in the immediate area.
Price was realistic, its a low volume sales area, the buyers were in a position to close- so everyone happy.

Replicating similar situations elsewhere- is where it'll be difficult- you can't clone Ranelagh or Rathmines- and ascribe the same exclusivity factor to it.

The EA got lucky here- she managed to match up a buyer and a seller singing off the same hymn sheet despite the pandemic.

Yes but it flys in the face of premium areas will fall further and fastest as someone has said on here. It’s the most important purchase of your life and premiums will still be paid for family homes in good locations. Trophy houses are a different story.