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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Hubertj

Ozark707 wrote: »

With exemptions gone which part of the market will be most affected? Lower/middle/upper? I know there is always a link anyway but in which bracket do most exemptions get targeted at?

Asking the wrong person! Don’t know enough about property and won’t try to bluff!

davedub2015

Whats the agreed price?? And where ? Really depends on the area for reduction

Sql_newbie_t wrote: »

We are sale agreed for approx 13 weeks. No contact from the seller. This week the seller reaches out to say that they are ready to proceed and asked are we still continuing with the purchase.
Just wanted to ask how you would approach the renegotiation of the price.. alot has changed/happened since sale agreed.
6-10% off would be all that we are asking for, there examples of properties in the area back on the market 5% lower.
My partner doesn't want to loose the property but I think we should hold off buying anything for a while.

lomb

eagle eye wrote: »

I am going through with a purchase as I said yesterday. I agreed a price 15k below what they were looking for. My best friend is an architect and he told me it's a bargain at the price, he said it'd cost 200k more to build this house today. This house was built in the mid-nineties.
It's a big house, six bedrooms and all are pretty big rooms, it's got a very large sun room, very large sitting room, small living room, decent sized kitchen, seven bathrooms, it's a dormer but the rooms upstairs are full size with no curves in the ceiling.
It's built on a half acre site with well looked after gardens and shrubs and has a couple of sheds and a greenhouse. Great privacy too.
With the ECB looking highly likely to print money I'm not sure if house prices will fall.
I felt at the time I bought the house that I got a great deal, got it for 15k less than their minimum and 50k cheaper than I'd value the house personally.
This is a house for life too. My wife adores it.

Ye, I'm buying similar 7 bed, I reckon it's 200k less than build also, where is your one?Incidentally Very few insurers insure 7 beds economically but try aig. Make sure you put down all rooms that could be used as bedrooms even office etc. Case in UK where insurer wouldn't pay after fire when put 7 bed as 5 bed

[Deleted User]

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/house-prices-will-not-fall-sharply-20200423-p54mj9

I wish I owned property in Australia, rather than this... er.... location, to be diplomatic.

Is that like the soft landing we were told about on 2008.

Hubertj

lomb wrote: »

M

Ye, I'm buying similar 7 bed, I reckon it's 200k less than build also, where is your one?Incidentally Very few insurers insure 7 beds economically but try aig. Make sure you put down all rooms that could be used as bedrooms even office etc. Case in UK where insurer wouldn't pay after fire when put 7 bed as 5 bed

Why is it difficult to get insurance? Number of potential occupants increases risk?

Marcusm

rosmoke wrote: »

There are always people happy to pay double on the same thing.
Next year sellers might pay you to get rid of it, like crude oil.

You do realise that the price of crude oil generally didn’t go negative. WTI for May delivery went negative at the expiry of the contract. Crude prices are absolutely down but the negative price was related to a lack of storage capacity at the single point (Cushing, Oklahoma) at which the physical delivery of oil from West Texas can be received (plus some other inland areas).

Villa05

Sql_newbie_t wrote:

We are sale agreed for approx 13 weeks. No contact from the seller. This week the seller reaches out to say that they are ready to proceed and asked are we still continuing with the purchase. Just wanted to ask how you would approach the renegotiation of the price.. alot has changed/happened since sale agreed. 6-10% off would be all that we are asking for, there examples of properties in the area back on the market 5% lower. My partner doesn't want to loose the property but I think we should hold off buying anything for a while.

Sit down with your partner and discuss with him/her the strong arguments you have seen from here and elsewhere

Tell the seller that the bank have reduced your loan offer by 10% and would they be willing to renegotiate the price to achieve a sale

tastyt wrote:

In the last recession did prices drop more / less percentage wise than prices in Dublin and the other cities or how does it usually compare ?

Country outside Dublin fell slower, but this was probably down to increased activity in Dublin. Galway was a good barometer for areas outside Dublin due to frequent auctions by Donnellan/Joyce when these are taken into account. Falls in percentage terms were similar

Ozark707 wrote:

With exemptions gone which part of the market will be most affected? Lower/middle/upper? I know there is always a link anyway but in which bracket do most exemptions get targeted at?

middle/higher because, candidates may have a low deposit due to paying high rents car/holiday/education loans, but a high repayment capacity through proven regular rent/maturing loan repayments

lomb

Hubertj wrote: »

Why is it difficult to get insurance? Number of potential occupants increases risk?

Not sure, perhaps much higher rebuild cost / hassle. I noticed 123 don't even insure a 7 bed so if I went with them and house burned down likely to get nothing even though mine is like 5 bed + gym room+ office room
This is the case
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-5550933/Our-house-burnt-insurer-refused-pay-said-7-bedrooms-not-five.html

That's the house https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/abbotswell/lyme-road/uplyme/lyme-regis/dt7-3tj/42493704

Cyrus

Marcusm wrote: »

You do realise that the price of crude oil generally didn’t go negative. WTI for May delivery went negative at the expiry of the contract. Crude prices are absolutely down but the negative price was related to a lack of storage capacity at the single point (Cushing, Oklahoma) at which the physical delivery of oil from West Texas can be received (plus some other inland areas).

I think this has been lost on a lot of people , they see a headline and run with it. The contango market meant that a lot of tankers offshore were and still are full so there was nowhere for the product to go.

PommieBast

Hubertj wrote: »

Pretty sure everyone agrees prices will drop, debate is over the speed and extent of those drops

..and also the spread of the drops. e.g. 1-bed apartments are going to get hammered compared to 2- and 3-bed..

landofthetree wrote: »

Some people think it won't matter because of low supply.

A bigger factor is what sort of drop would put a large portion of potential sellers into negative equity. Banks would likley veto such sales.

Villa05

GreeBo wrote: »

Desirable areas won't demand a premium during a recession?
So why aren't we all living in ballsbridge after the last one?
That's nonsense.

Finglas rising and South Dublin falling would be a relevant stat if the both started from the same point. I think you'll find that prices in finglas are a little lower than with South Dublin.

My post was to emphasise and prove that desirable areas can fall in price and especially so in a recession just like shares of premium products fall as consumers switch to substitute cheaper products

I think your intelligent enough to understand that

Larbre34

Villa05 wrote: »

I think your intelligent enough to understand that

Mmmm, that irony was delicious, thank you.

Larbre34

If the banks are more prudent, and we can only hope these days that they are, they will begin cancelling not only AIPs, but drawdowns on approved funds.

More importantly, any buyers pending full approval or drawdown of funds, should be pulling out of their position, irrespective of employment circumstances or anything on their side. You'd be mad to buy any property at or near a market price set ahead of this mess.

The house will still be there in a year. It'll be 30% cheaper. Minimum.

beauf

Villa05 wrote: »

My post was to emphasise and prove that desirable areas can fall in price and especially so in a recession just like shares of premium products fall as consumers switch to substitute cheaper products

I think your intelligent enough to understand that

That might be what you meant to say. But its not what you actually said.

Villa05 wrote: »

Desirable areas by there nature will demand a premium during the good times, however during a recession that premium won't be paid and consequently desirable areas will fall further and faster. ...

beauf

Villa05 wrote: »

My post was to emphasise and prove that desirable areas can fall in price and especially so in a recession just like shares of premium products fall as consumers switch to substitute cheaper products...

I'm not sure what you think you proved. That property rises and falls does not need to be proven. The point being discussed was its all relative. Not that it can't fall.

Villa05 wrote: »

...

This phenomenon can be seen before covid hit. South Dublin prices were falling while areas like Finglas were rising

This shows that before covid there were affordability issues which were impacting the high end desirable market

...

Confidence issues, and people will lots of money tend to be quite good at hanging on to it. Which is how they got to be wealthy in the first place.
They are also good at spotting an opportunity. Which is why some areas react both not to just a recession, but also a recovery earlier than other places.

beauf

Larbre34 wrote: »

If the banks are more prudent, and we can only hope these days that they are, they will begin cancelling not only AIPs, but drawdowns on approved funds.

More importantly, any buyers pending full approval or drawdown of funds, should be pulling out of their position, irrespective of employment circumstances or anything on their side. You'd be mad to buy any property at or near a market price set ahead of this mess.

The house will still be there in a year. It'll be 30% cheaper. Minimum.

So if they freeze the market how can it drop. Drops only happen when sales go through at lower prices.

Also some areas sales are not that common. I had difficulty get accurate valuations on some houses last year because there hadn't been sale on the road in 5yrs or more.

bdmc5

Larbre34 wrote: »

If the banks are more prudent, and we can only hope these days that they are, they will begin cancelling not only AIPs, but drawdowns on approved funds.

More importantly, any buyers pending full approval or drawdown of funds, should be pulling out of their position, irrespective of employment circumstances or anything on their side. You'd be mad to buy any property at or near a market price set ahead of this mess.

The house will still be there in a year. It'll be 30% cheaper. Minimum.

The sheer certainty Which posters like you are talking about these 30 percent when in fact all you doing is wildly speculating is cringeworthy.

To say that the same house will be available in 12 months at a third cheaper is ridiculous. Unless highly motivated to sell then the majority of sellers will wait it out just like buyers are now for the recovery.

There a chronic lack of quality house and if you are comfortable with price and it’s going to your home for next decade and more, then the short term drop should not be the only factor in your decision. Prices could recover 12 months after any drop if it happens.

I bought 2 years Ago and know how hard it is to find that dream property. The rent spent holding off buying also need to factored in. I really do sympathise with buyers now as it’s not a easy call to buy knowing drop in prices in likely in short term but speculative scaremongering like your post really is so unhelpful when you don’t have a clue what will happen

Zues faber

Any expert opinions out there?

Idbatterim

There is already another thread on this subject on this forum. Nobody has a crystal hall, short term you would have to assume drops, but they could be glacial and likely only those that have to sell or are downsizing etc will sell

Hubertj

bdmc5 wrote: »

The sheer certainty Which posters like you are talking about these 30 percent when in fact all you doing is wildly speculating is cringeworthy.

To say that the same house will be available in 12 months at a third cheaper is ridiculous. Unless highly motivated to sell then the majority of sellers will wait it out just like buyers are now for the recovery.

There a chronic lack of quality house and if you are comfortable with price and it’s going to your home for next decade and more, then the short term drop should not be the only factor in your decision. Prices could recover 12 months after any drop if it happens.

I bought 2 years Ago and know how hard it is to find that dream property. The rent spent holding off buying also need to factored in. I really do sympathise with buyers now as it’s not a easy call to buy knowing drop in prices in likely in short term but speculative scaremongering like your post really is so unhelpful when you don’t have a clue what will happen

Maybe the poster had a few drinks on them at time of writing?

Ozark707

Idbatterim wrote: »

There is already another thread on this subject on this forum. Nobody has a crystal hall, short term you would have to assume drops, but they could be glacial and likely only those that have to sell or are downsizing etc will sell

The question could also be whether EA's will pressurise vendors to drop prices. If the market freezes up then EA's are in a very precarious position as there will simply be zero cashflow for them. So if they can convince a vendor to accept a lower price then it will be better than nothing for the next year. Maybe some could revert to rentals but unless people start moving in droves then that won't substitute the loss of earnings from sales.

Maitguel

I heard an EA on down to business yesterday. She said a property (it was either Ranelagh or Rathmines) went sale agreed in a week €50k over ask at approx €775k and the purchasers never set foot in it! All done through virtual viewings. Now if this is true it’s bodes very well for the future and demonstrates that there is demand for the right property.

Ozark707

Maitguel wrote: »

I heard an EA on down to business yesterday. She said a property (it was either Ranelagh or Rathmines) went sale agreed in a week €50k over ask at approx €775k and the purchasers never set foot in it! All done through virtual viewings. Now if this is true it’s bodes very well for the future and demonstrates that there is demand for the right property.

Could be this one

padser

Maitguel wrote: »

I heard an EA on down to business yesterday. She said a property (it was either Ranelagh or Rathmines) went sale agreed in a week €50k over ask at approx €775k and the purchasers never set foot in it! All done through virtual viewings. Now if this is true it’s bodes very well for the future and demonstrates that there is demand for the right property.

Thats either

A) extremely unusual or

total bullsh1t

EA has a large vested interest in pretending property market is still functional

The_Conductor

Maitguel wrote: »

I heard an EA on down to business yesterday. She said a property (it was either Ranelagh or Rathmines) went sale agreed in a week €50k over ask at approx €775k and the purchasers never set foot in it! All done through virtual viewings. Now if this is true it’s bodes very well for the future and demonstrates that there is demand for the right property.

Entirely plausible- but those cases are complete outliers.
The sellers were realistic or even generous with their expectations.
The buyers are familiar with the area- and possibly if not that particular property, other properties in the immediate area.
Price was realistic, its a low volume sales area, the buyers were in a position to close- so everyone happy.

Replicating similar situations elsewhere- is where it'll be difficult- you can't clone Ranelagh or Rathmines- and ascribe the same exclusivity factor to it.

The EA got lucky here- she managed to match up a buyer and a seller singing off the same hymn sheet despite the pandemic.

Zenify

The_Conductor wrote: »

The EA got lucky here

I'll call it luck when it is sold.

Ozark707

padser wrote: »

Thats either

A) extremely unusual or
total bullsh1t

EA has a large vested interest in pretending property market is still functional

Whilst I agree EA's will always (publicly) talk up the market if it was the place I linked above I could believe it as it seems like much better value than other places in that area right now. If something is well priced it will generate interest and likely to end up in a bidding war. If something is listed at an unrealistic value then it will just sit there. For all we know the EA in this case got the vendor to put up a realistic price and if so then well done.

The_Conductor

Zenify wrote: »

I'll call it luck when it is sold.

In all fairness- if it is the one that Ozark707 found- its a very nice specimen in a good area- you don't get properties like that coming up very often. Someone probably had been keeping an eye on the area- and was willing to bite when this came up.

The videographer seriously needs to attend a few classes- its pretty poxy work, even if it does reasonably show off the property.

Zenify

The_Conductor wrote: »

In all fairness- if it is the one that Ozark707 found- its a very nice specimen in a good area- you don't get properties like that coming up very often. Someone probably had been keeping an eye on the area- and was willing to bite when this came up.

The videographer seriously needs to attend a few classes- its pretty poxy work, even if it does reasonably show off the property.

So what sort or a price drop do you think that is? Are we talking 15%?

Or is it at market value before Covid?

JamesMason

Maitguel wrote: »

I heard an EA on down to business yesterday. She said a property (it was either Ranelagh or Rathmines) went sale agreed in a week €50k over ask at approx €775k and the purchasers never set foot in it! All done through virtual viewings. Now if this is true it’s bodes very well for the future and demonstrates that there is demand for the right property.

EA is full of BS