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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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davedub2015

Whats the agreed price?? And where ? Really depends on the area for reduction

Sql_newbie_t wrote: »

We are sale agreed for approx 13 weeks. No contact from the seller. This week the seller reaches out to say that they are ready to proceed and asked are we still continuing with the purchase.
Just wanted to ask how you would approach the renegotiation of the price.. alot has changed/happened since sale agreed.
6-10% off would be all that we are asking for, there examples of properties in the area back on the market 5% lower.
My partner doesn't want to loose the property but I think we should hold off buying anything for a while.

Hubertj

Ozark707 wrote: »

With exemptions gone which part of the market will be most affected? Lower/middle/upper? I know there is always a link anyway but in which bracket do most exemptions get targeted at?

Asking the wrong person! Don’t know enough about property and won’t try to bluff!

Zenify

rosmoke wrote: »

There are always people happy to pay double on the same thing.
Next year sellers might pay you to get rid of it, like crude oil.

Could you imagine saying that to someone in January. That in a few months sellers will pay buyers to take the oil from them. It shows what's possible in a market. Anything could happen.

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

Pretty sure everyone agrees prices will drop, debate is over the speed and extent of those drops

With exemptions gone which part of the market will be most affected? Lower/middle/upper? I know there is always a link anyway but in which bracket do most exemptions get targeted at?

rosmoke

There are always people happy to pay double on the same thing.
Next year sellers might pay you to get rid of it, like crude oil.

accensi0n

eagle eye wrote: »

seven bathrooms,

:eek:

eagle eye

I am going through with a purchase as I said yesterday. I agreed a price 15k below what they were looking for. My best friend is an architect and he told me it's a bargain at the price, he said it'd cost 200k more to build this house today. This house was built in the mid-nineties.
It's a big house, six bedrooms and all are pretty big rooms, it's got a very large sun room, very large sitting room, small living room, decent sized kitchen, seven bathrooms, it's a dormer but the rooms upstairs are full size with no curves in the ceiling.
It's built on a half acre site with well looked after gardens and shrubs and has a couple of sheds and a greenhouse. Great privacy too.
With the ECB looking highly likely to print money I'm not sure if house prices will fall.
I felt at the time I bought the house that I got a great deal, got it for 15k less than their minimum and 50k cheaper than I'd value the house personally.
This is a house for life too. My wife adores it.

Graham

cnocbui wrote: »

Normally I wouldn't, but if you try the link you might realise why I did..

Is it because copyright doesn't apply to whatever the reason is?

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/house-prices-will-not-fall-sharply-20200423-p54mj9

Last edited by Graham; Today at 15:21. Reason: please don't re-post entire articles.

Normally I wouldn't, but if you try the link you might realise why I did..

accensi0n

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/house-prices-will-not-fall-sharply-20200423-p54mj9

I wish I owned property in Australia, rather than this... er.... location, to be diplomatic.

House prices will move sideways ... ?

cnocbui

House values are unlikely to fall materially and will either move sideways or at most fall by up to 5 per cent over the next three to six months.
Christopher Joye: Columnist
Apr 24, 2020 – 11.06am

Everyone loves a contrarian position, and I enjoy betting against conventional wisdom.

<SNIP>

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/house-prices-will-not-fall-sharply-20200423-p54mj9

I wish I owned property in Australia, rather than this... er.... location, to be diplomatic.

stinger31

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have places I put my money. Not in buy to let though.

sounds like spoof to me. if there was a magical place everyone would be doing it

Hubertj

combat14 wrote: »

looks like serious problems coming in US housing market too

https://www.ccn.com/the-housing-market-is-edging-dangerously-close-to-a-1-trillion-reckoning/

I read an article the other day that listed areas in US most at risk of crash - They listed a number of areas in New Jersey and other parts of North East that were most at risk.

OwlsZat

combat14 wrote: »

looks like serious problems coming in US housing market too

https://www.ccn.com/the-housing-market-is-edging-dangerously-close-to-a-1-trillion-reckoning/

Lolers at the people still trying to sell houses at last years valuations. Some people seriously sleepwalk straight through life.

combat14

looks like serious problems coming in US housing market too

https://www.ccn.com/the-housing-market-is-edging-dangerously-close-to-a-1-trillion-reckoning/

Limpy

Its a catch 22 situation now. How many sale agreed houses have people upgrading to bigger more expensive houses dependent on that sale?

Who ever blink's first loses their deposit.

Donald Trump

landofthetree wrote: »

This was pointed out earlier in the thread(late March).

Some people think it won't matter because of low supply. :rolleyes:

Not everyone reads boards.ie and the opinions/advice of people on here. So having that article in a national newspaper could have a bit of an impact in terms of slowing a few people down. (People who, up to this might have just been "advised" by the Estate Agent that it was just going to be a very temporary blip and they should still close as soon as they can....)

Ozark707

Sql_newbie_t wrote: »

We are sale agreed for approx 13 weeks. No contact from the seller. This week the seller reaches out to say that they are ready to proceed and asked are we still continuing with the purchase.
Just wanted to ask how you would approach the renegotiation of the price.. alot has changed/happened since sale agreed.
6-10% off would be all that we are asking for, there examples of properties in the area back on the market 5% lower.
My partner doesn't want to loose the property but I think we should hold off buying anything for a while.

If you are looking for 6-10% off you need to ask for more than that as they will obviously push back. You also need to weigh up if there is likely to much extra supply in the area you are looking for...and also you need to see if you can convince your partner first

Donald Trump

Zenify wrote: »

https://www.revenue.ie/en/gains-gifts-and-inheritance/cat-exemptions/exemption-for-dwelling-house/index.aspx

"You do not own, have an interest or a share in any other house, including one you acquired as part of the same inheritance."

Anyone could say they lived in the family home while actually living in another property. It's a bit of anti avoidance legislation (I think). Also it says living in the family home for 6 years before they die. I thought it was 3. They must have extended it. That's to make sure you dont move back in with your parents when they get a cancer diagnosis so you are technically living in the property when they die.

Of course people will try to minimize tax. It's not dissimilar to the stories you hear where the parents sell a house to move in with children and then parents pass away and children are taxed fully on the remaining proceeds. Whereas if the children sold their house and moved in with the parents, there'd be no tax to pay

The 6 year time is a bit harsh though!

Ozark707

combat14 wrote: »

Bank stress tests Feb pre-covid predicted 13.5% house price drops in event of economic shock

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/irish-property-prices-forecast-to-fall-in-bank-stress-tests-1.4157946%3fmode=amp

Predictions of 15-20% house price drops in March before full significance of 1,000,000 on social welfare and country potentially borrowing an extra €30 billion euro

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/irish-property-prices-forecast-to-fall-in-bank-stress-tests-1.4157946%3fmode=amp

If this goes on much longer- government will have to start reducing "taper" the covid payment and even consider reducing regular social welfare, cutting public service pay and raising all sorts of taxes ... I.e. all bets off on extent house price drops then....... but for now 15-20% house price drop sounds reasonable subject to further drops depending on the length and extent of this crisis

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/coronavirus-ireland-finance-minister-paschal-18133224.amp

Hard to see now how it will not be a minimum of 10% drop, question is how long it will take to get to that level.

combat14

Hubertj wrote: »

Pretty sure everyone agrees prices will drop, debate is over the speed and extent of those drops

Bank stress tests Feb pre-covid predicted 13.5% house price drops in event of economic shock

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/irish-property-prices-forecast-to-fall-in-bank-stress-tests-1.4157946%3fmode=amp

Predictions of 15-20% house price drops in March before full significance of 1,000,000 on social welfare and country potentially borrowing an extra €30 billion euro

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/irish-property-prices-forecast-to-fall-in-bank-stress-tests-1.4157946%3fmode=amp

If this goes on much longer- government will have to start reducing "taper" the covid payment and even consider reducing regular social welfare, cutting public service pay and raising all sorts of taxes ... I.e. all bets off on extent house price drops then....... but for now 15-20% house price drop sounds reasonable subject to further drops depending on the length and extent of this crisis

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/coronavirus-ireland-finance-minister-paschal-18133224.amp

tastyt

Hey lads, what do you guys think will happen to rural property during this ?

In the last recession did prices drop more / less percentage wise than prices in Dublin and the other cities or how does it usually compare ?

Hubertj

landofthetree wrote: »

This was pointed out earlier in the thread(late March).

Some people think it won't matter because of low supply. :rolleyes:

Pretty sure everyone agrees prices will drop, debate is over the speed and extent of those drops

combat14

dor843088 wrote: »

That's it. The nail in the coffin for anyone saying prices will not fall. It will become a self fulfilling prophecy. The more they limit credit the more they fall , the more they fall the more they limit credit. We are off to the races now.

exactly anyone who needs to sell will need to sell now and/or drop the price before they are potentially stuck with their property for several years

landofthetree

dor843088 wrote: »

That's it. The nail in the coffin for anyone saying prices will not fall. It will become a self fulfilling prophecy. The more they limit credit the more they fall , the more they fall the more they limit credit. We are off to the races now.

This was pointed out earlier in the thread(late March).

Some people think it won't matter because of low supply. :rolleyes:

dor843088

combat14 wrote: »

and it starts ..

Banks limit home loans amid house price fears

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/banks-limit-home-loans-amid-house-price-fears-39156374.html

That's it. The nail in the coffin for anyone saying prices will not fall. It will become a self fulfilling prophecy. The more they limit credit the more they fall , the more they fall the more they limit credit. We are off to the races now.

combat14

and it starts ..

Banks limit home loans amid house price fears

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/banks-limit-home-loans-amid-house-price-fears-39156374.html

Zenify

Donald Trump wrote: »

I'd have assumed that if you were officially living in the house for long enough you'd qualify regardless of whether you had another property

https://www.revenue.ie/en/gains-gifts-and-inheritance/cat-exemptions/exemption-for-dwelling-house/index.aspx

"You do not own, have an interest or a share in any other house, including one you acquired as part of the same inheritance."

Anyone could say they lived in the family home while actually living in another property. It's a bit of anti avoidance legislation (I think). Also it says living in the family home for 6 years before they die. I thought it was 3. They must have extended it. That's to make sure you dont move back in with your parents when they get a cancer diagnosis so you are technically living in the property when they die.

Donald Trump

Zenify wrote: »

You are looking at it the wrong way.

Everyone has to pay tax on what they inherit above the threshold. There is an exemption for people who are living in the house they are inheriting from their parents. This exemption is to insure the children dont have to sell their home to pay the tax bill and have nowhere to live. You have another house so you have somewhere to live and dont qualify for the exemption. I hope you can see where I coming from with this point.

I am very sorry for your loss and it can make it worse by losing your family home and your parents. But you could sell the other property to pay the tax bill?

I'd have assumed that if you were officially living in the house for long enough you'd qualify regardless of whether you had another property

Zenify

Paulownia wrote: »

My mother died recently and she left me the house we live in and I’ll have to pay tax on the value when she died which seems very unfair because I have another house

You are looking at it the wrong way.

Everyone has to pay tax on what they inherit above the threshold. There is an exemption for people who are living in the house they are inheriting from their parents. This exemption is to insure the children dont have to sell their home to pay the tax bill and have nowhere to live. You have another house so you have somewhere to live and dont qualify for the exemption. I hope you can see where I coming from with this point.

I am very sorry for your loss and it can make it worse by losing your family home and your parents. But you could sell the other property to pay the tax bill?