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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Dwarf.Shortage

eagle eye wrote: »

18647 houses listed on my home.ie today. I think somebody said there were over 19000 two days ago.

And we had it out to death that it’s likely not indicative of actual supply because there’s no point re listing an expired ad when there is no market activity and you can’t have viewings.

fliball123

eagle eye wrote: »

18647 houses listed on my home.ie today. I think somebody said there were over 19000 two days ago.

That was me and it was over 21000 just Corona broke out and regardless of how some try to skew this information it is an indicator of supply as there have been new ads put up every day during the outbreak and myhome and daft are giving their ad space for free so I would of expected a huge up take of this opportunity by all the sellers who supposedly have to sell (gun to the head sellers) yet myhome is down over 10% in properties. It makes no sense unless what I have been saying is currnetly true. People who have a property and are in financial difficulty and don't like the current market don't have to sell due to the many mechanism open to them, such as renting and just stop paying the mortgage. This of course may change in the future yet properties available on myhome keep reducing.

Padre_Pio

fliball123 wrote: »

That was me and it was over 21000 just Corona broke out

All that means is people are taking houses off the market until restrictions are over.
Estate agents are closed.
There are no viewings.
Only purchases in the later stages are going through.

People are reading way to much into this. It will be months before we have anything more than anecdotal evidence.

fliball123

Padre_Pio wrote: »

All that means is people are taking houses off the market until restrictions are over.
Estate agents are closed.
There are no viewings.
Only purchases in the later stages are going through.

People are reading way to much into this. It will be months before we have anything more than anecdotal evidence.

Yes which was the whole argument people are saying that demand has dropped therefore price has dropped but demand has only dropped until after corona is over I have been one of the few arguing that supply is drying up as well over the same period and that a website like myhome is actual proof of this. So as always Supply vs demand = price. I have been saying there will be no real drop in prices or infact a market until corona is gone we are in a stalemate. I do believe that when we open back up we may well see a drop in price

lomb

SozBbz wrote: »

I know that area veeery well. There will always be people wanting to live on Valentia Road. Its expensive but its a massive house and the gardens on that road are incredible for being so close to town. Overlooking the church grounds of Corpus Christi, walks on Griffith Avenue, great schools in the area..... its actually lovely.

Whatever happens to prices, relatively speaking that house will always be extremely desirable. Also it says the owner is downsizing for lifestyle reasons and wants to stay in the broader area, so they are probably in no real rush.

Was someone not stabbed on Valentia Road?

Immy

We put our house up for sale and took it down a week later when the school’s closed.

We’ll put it up again as soon as we get of a sniff of a house we want.

Ours is a nice 4 bed semi in a nice area, we’re looking to stay in the area and buy our dream property. Don’t mind selling cheaper if we’re buying cheaper. But because our house is nice we are picky about what we want.

We bought this in 2009 so were in negative equity fairly quickly, but we’ve lived here very happily for 11 years so it never impacted us.

Donald Trump

fliball123 wrote: »

Yes which was the whole argument people are saying that demand has dropped therefore price has dropped but demand has only dropped until after corona is over I have been one of the few arguing that supply is drying up as well over the same period and that a website like myhome is actual proof of this. So as always Supply vs demand = price. I have been saying there will be no real drop in prices or infact a market until corona is gone we are in a stalemate. I do believe that when we open back up we may well see a drop in price

A shock to the market can make people more cautious. Even if they go back to the same as before for work and salary etc. they might be a little less desire to take a risk potentially overstretching themselves.

Claw Hammer

Of more relevance is today's Bidx1 auction. The majority of the properties did not sell unlike previous auctions run by Bidx1.

Ozark707

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Of more relevance is today's Bidx1 auction. The majority of the properties did not sell unlike previous auctions run by Bidx1.

Not surprising though as I believe if your bid is accepted at the auction you have to close, so you would have needed to have had your surveyor out to check out property before today which would have been unlikely unless done 5/6 weeks ago?

Steer55

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Of more relevance is today's Bidx1 auction. The majority of the properties did not sell unlike previous auctions run by Bidx1.

Must be a huge shortage of cash buyers so, that's actually quite worrying.

JP100

Anyone any opinions on the help to buy scheme. Will it be extended or cut altogether in the next budget?

Claw Hammer

Ozark707 wrote: »

Not surprising though as I believe if your bid is accepted at the auction you have to close, so you would have needed to have had your surveyor out to check out property before today which would have been unlikely unless done 5/6 weeks ago?

It wouldn't have been impossible. Some sales were completed. There may have been issues with viewings, but I would doubt that anybody who really wanted to buy, didn't bid because of he hassle of viewing and surveying.

Zenify

JP100 wrote: »

Anyone any opinions on the help to buy scheme. Will it be extended or cut altogether in the next budget?

It will be replaced with something new. It will be a completely new system to go along with a new government, it could effectively do the same thing. Through some tax relief for builder or buyer. IMO.... But based on the political focus in property now because of Sinn Feins last voting result.

eagle eye

This ECB news has made my mind up for me, gonna sign the contracts on Tuesday and get the purchase done.
It's the house we intend to stay in for life so I'm not concerned about its value really.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

eagle eye wrote: »

This ECB news has made my mind up for me, gonna sign the contracts on Tuesday and get the purchase done.
It's the house we intend to stay in for life so I'm not concerned about its value really.

Which ECB news? Congratulations. Once you have a decent deposit then you will still have the option to move later which people always forget. A lot of people don't stay in their first purchase forever by choice.

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

Yes which was the whole argument people are saying that demand has dropped therefore price has dropped but demand has only dropped until after corona is over I have been one of the few arguing that supply is drying up as well over the same period and that a website like myhome is actual proof of this. So as always Supply vs demand = price. I have been saying there will be no real drop in prices or infact a market until corona is gone we are in a stalemate. I do believe that when we open back up we may well see a drop in price

Dont confuse demand with desire to buy
After the virus is over banks wont be able to lend as much money as before thus a lot of potential buyers wont get a mortgage. No mortage, no demand

eagle eye

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote:

Which ECB news? Congratulations. Once you have a decent deposit then you will still have the option to move later which people always forget. A lot of people don't stay in their first purchase forever by choice.

They say they are going printing money. Higher interest rates, money worth less so there mightn't be much change in the price of houses.

Donald Trump

eagle eye wrote: »

They say they are going printing money. Higher interest rates, money worth less so there mightn't be much change in the price of houses.

Makes no difference if everyone does it of course.
But if you shift your money to USD for example and they don't do the same, you can always come back and buy that same priced house and have dollars left in the bank

Any such news was not unexpected in the markets as FX rates barely moved today.

BTW, printing money will not give you higher interest rates. It gives you lower rates. Lower rates mean you can borrow for less and that you can service higher debts so your cost of owing money goes down. Then you are likely to take on debt and invest it otherwise (in stocks or equity). It also drives money out of debt markets into those other areas

snotboogie

eagle eye wrote: »

They say they are going printing money. Higher interest rates, money worth less so there mightn't be much change in the price of houses.

We are also facing an unprecidented deflationary cycle driven by the lack of economic activity, its not as straight forward as ECB print money - > money is worth less, there are many other factors at play and its very hard to predict how this will play out.

Mad_maxx

ECB been printing money since 2015, it all went into the bond market

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Dont confuse demand with desire to buy
After the virus is over banks wont be able to lend as much money as before thus a lot of potential buyers wont get a mortgage. No mortage, no demand

Same goes with supply don't mix up supply with a need to sell, just because someone had a property up for sale at price x does not mean that they will accept a price of x - (y discount) in the future, not a good return on investment, no sell

Villa05

It's interesting that price falls are regarded as disastrous especially where there is a homeless crisis
Are price rises of double digit percentage proportion not considered disastrous also as was the case for a significant part of this decade

And again property sales from 2012 up till recently were 50/50 cash/mortgage

Banks were not giving out investor mortgage in the early years of the recovery so plenty homeowners benefited in the last crash

It's very much on topic. Reits by their nature (leveraging) are very exposed to price volatility. Remember brendan investments launched by Eddie hobbs investing in german property and the shareholder were stung heavily in the last crash. German property at that time was considered to be good value

Here commercial property is going to be heavily impacted and also lower rents in residential. You could see forcred sales

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

I'll try again. I would argue against some of your facts, but unfortunately for all of us, you didnt provide any facts.

GreeBo wrote:

If they are in no rush to sell then it wont be. Anyone who wants to live on that road will pounce on the chance as houses dont come up for sale too often.

GreeBo wrote:

Thats kinda been my whole point on this thread, desirable areas will always have demand due to low supply.

Desirable areas by there nature will demand a premium during the good times, however during a recession that premium won't be paid and consequently desirable areas will fall further and faster.

This phenomenon can be seen before covid hit. South Dublin prices were falling while areas like Finglas were rising

This shows that before covid there were affordability issues which were impacting the high end desirable market

Desirable areas will always have demand that does not mean that their price won't fall, quiet the contrary in fact!

Paulownia

My mother died recently and she left me the house we live in and I’ll have to pay tax on the value when she died which seems very unfair because I have another house

Assetbacked

Paulownia wrote: »

My mother died recently and she left me the house we live in and I’ll have to pay tax on the value when she died which seems very unfair because I have another house

Sorry for your loss.

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Desirable areas by there nature will demand a premium during the good times, however during a recession that premium won't be paid and consequently desirable areas will fall further and faster.

This phenomenon can be seen before covid hit. South Dublin prices were falling while areas like Finglas were rising

This shows that before covid there were affordability issues which were impacting the high end desirable market

Desirable areas will always have demand that does not mean that their price won't fall, quiet the contrary in fact!

South Dublin prices have been relatively stagnant for the past few years because they rose the quickest in the first place and then once affordability kicked in they remained relatively flat. Other areas are / were still rising because people then look elsewhere .

It doesn’t necessarily mean they will fall harder faster though.

The big savings will always be on the multi million euro houses , that’s where you get the 30/40 percent swings.

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

Desirable areas by there nature will demand a premium during the good times, however during a recession that premium won't be paid and consequently desirable areas will fall further and faster.

This phenomenon can be seen before covid hit. South Dublin prices were falling while areas like Finglas were rising

This shows that before covid there were affordability issues which were impacting the high end desirable market

Desirable areas will always have demand that does not mean that their price won't fall, quiet the contrary in fact!

Desirable areas won't demand a premium during a recession?
So why aren't we all living in ballsbridge after the last one?
That's nonsense.

Finglas rising and South Dublin falling would be a relevant stat if the both started from the same point. I think you'll find that prices in finglas are a little lower than with South Dublin.

johnfás

Cyrus wrote: »

South Dublin prices have been relatively stagnant for the past few years because they rose the quickest in the first place and then once affordability kicked in they remained relatively flat. Other areas are / were still rising because people then look elsewhere .

It doesn’t necessarily mean they will fall harder faster though.

The big savings will always be on the multi million euro houses , that’s where you get the 30/40 percent swings.

Yes, volatility in that bracket is a function of fewer buyers. More buyers = a moderation on volatility.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Desirable areas by there nature will demand a premium during the good times, however during a recession that premium won't be paid and consequently desirable areas will fall further and faster.

This phenomenon can be seen before covid hit. South Dublin prices were falling while areas like Finglas were rising

This shows that before covid there were affordability issues which were impacting the high end desirable market

Desirable areas will always have demand that does not mean that their price won't fall, quiet the contrary in fact!

So this goes back to earlier discussions that different segments of the market may be affected differently - higher or lower % drops depending on the price / location / quality?
I live in Ballsbridge and think the affordability issues were driven by some of the luxury apartment developments released. Looking for crazy prices for 2 bed apartments!!!

BillyBiggs

beauf wrote: »

Another 1200 here...

More than 1,200 new homes to be developed at site of Central Mental Hospital https://jrnl.ie/5082644

Now that is mental.