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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Donald Trump

beauf wrote: »

My issues with this complaining about green land and let's build high density everywhere is that is very dated concept that was done in the past and proved to be a social disaster. Once you've created this concrete jungle it's very hard to come back from it. More modern urban planning is trying to get these green spaces back, and here we are trying to get rid of it and recreate a tribute in concrete to the 1970s.

If you are going to build high density do it properly not just randomly by picking locations that are unsuitable. Why point at green land that borders a protected amenity area and in a green belt that is unsuitable, when there is active planning (currently turned down) for 600+ apartments not a mile away.

The govt hasn't shown any interest in affordable or social housing for 20yrs plus.

I never said what to do with any of that land. Just that it was there. Nobody mentioned anything about a green belt.

On the point of other potential development land being sat on and not built, it might not mean that there is not a demand for them - there just might not be enough demand for the developer to get the prices he would like to squeeze out. And he might be in a position to sit on them for years. That is why I would prefer a vacant levy to be brought in and enforced.

On the point of high density and green space, they are not mutually exclusive. Manhattan has the fabulous central park in the middle of it. I would argue that there is a happy middle ground. Ireland is not NY of course. And you can't just throw up towers like old Ballymun. On the other hand, sprawling estates out in Blanchardstown and Mulhuddart are hardly vastly improved by having plenty of waste bits of ground, or a few neglected soccer pitches thrown around the place.

If we are facing into a dip for 2020 and beyond (which seems likely), then perhaps it is the time to implement some changes while we are in that dip. It is too difficult to do them when the market is flying.

Graham

Mod Note

Hubertj if you have to resort to name calling, it is time to step away from the keyboard.

Please read the forum charter before posting again.

Hubertj

Empty_Space wrote: »

Once you called me a to*ser. You lost all credibility.

apologies, comment withdrawn.

I would add that nobody on boards has any credibility. Its an anonymous website. People make all sorts of outrageous statements, such as yourself and others. For example, im predicting a 185% drop in property prices.

JimmyVik

Empty_Space wrote: »

Well obviously sell everything now.

Then you shouldnt be thinking of when to buy, but what to buy. And I dont mean what stocks.

But someone already told me to sell everything 3 weeks ago.

Maitguel

Anyone feeling more positive about the Irish situation as weeks go on? Clearly people are still spending/consuming like mad if they are resorting to ordering pints to their house!

Building sites will be opened in the coming weeks, drive thrus opening up not much pessimism in consumer sentiment as otherwise you would be seeing considering going down and people saving what they have.

Our measures to date have worked to suppress the community spread and a degree of normality is on the horizon. The population is going to be bulling to spend this summer so the majority of employees who are in stable jobs and were in the market pre lockdown will still be looking to buy post lockdown. I think an interesting stat is the number of views properties are getting. I don’t recall the ad but Sherry Fitz put up a second hand end of terrace property in Rochestown Cork last week and had already 2k+ views.

Yes parts of the economy won’t recover this year, there will be sellers who hadn’t sold pre lockdown, who would be opened to a discount but they clearly were over priced hence why they didn’t sell. Over priced property will be coming down there will be plenty of accountants, lawyers, healthcare staff, IT jobs and banks are well capitalised to give credit to good applicants.

combat14

China puts Harbin city of 10 million on lockdown - looks like this whole thing will go on a while - how am I going to sell my house now ....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2020/04/23/china-puts-new-city-10000000-people-lockdown-outbreak-12600044/amp/

SozBbz

Anyone else listen to David McWilliams on Pat Kenny this morning...

Spoiler - ECB will enable the printing of money, govt job to get money directly to small business to maintain confidence, recovery by 2022 very probable.

Claw Hammer

Maitguel wrote: »

Anyone feeling more positive about the Irish situation as weeks go on? Clearly people are still spending/consuming like mad if they are resorting to ordering pints to their house!

Building sites will be opened in the coming weeks, drive thrus opening up not much pessimism in consumer sentiment as otherwise you would be seeing considering going down and people saving what they have.

Our measures to date have worked to suppress the community spread and a degree of normality is on the horizon. The population is going to be bulling to spend this summer so the majority of employees who are in stable jobs and were in the market pre lockdown will still be looking to buy post lockdown. I think an interesting stat is the number of views properties are getting. I don’t recall the ad but Sherry Fitz put up a second hand end of terrace property in Rochestown Cork last week and had already 2k+ views.

Yes parts of the economy won’t recover this year, there will be sellers who hadn’t sold pre lockdown, who would be opened to a discount but they clearly were over priced hence why they didn’t sell. Over priced property will be coming down there will be plenty of accountants, lawyers, healthcare staff, IT jobs and banks are well capitalised to give credit to good applicants.

There are a lot of views because several hundred thousand people, who were employed until recently, have no work and are in lockdown so spending a lot of time browsing the listings.

Tallback

SozBbz wrote: »

Anyone else listen to David McWilliams on Pat Kenny this morning...

Spoiler - ECB will enable the printing of money, govt job to get money directly to small business to maintain confidence, recovery by 2022 very probable.

There will definitely be a global effort to stimulate the economy away from a deep recession and this will involve lots of money being made. This time it might go directly to consumers/busineses as opposed to just into the banks/debt markets.

One consequence, potentially, of this would be increased inflation. In such a scenario, ownership of assets and even debt is more beneficial than hoarding cash.

rosmoke

Can't say much but the multinational company I work for is switching to full remote work for one of their buildings.
Heard a few companies from India announced the same thing.

Now imagine what this will do to the property market in Dublin when a few of us don't need to live in Dublin or Ireland any more.
We all knew this will be the case in future, at least for tech companies but it's way sooner than we thought..

Along with that, my wife and her colleagues have just been temporary laid off .. lovely ..

GreeBo

Empty_Space wrote: »

Do sure, but Im not going to argue with you.
I have learned its a pointless exercise to argue with someone on something that is so obvious.
One can always find arguments to convince themselves of the illogical.

I'll try again.
I would argue against some of your facts, but unfortunately for all of us, you didnt provide any facts.

GreeBo

AmberGold wrote: »

Will be a hard job getting this away for the asking;

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/living-next-door-to-dermot-bannon-family-home-with-reclaimed-marble-church-arches-on-the-same-street-as-room-to-improve-star-39152417.html

If they are in no rush to sell then it wont be.
Anyone who wants to live on that road will pounce on the chance as houses dont come up for sale too often.

Thats kinda been my whole point on this thread, desirable areas will always have demand due to low supply.

Experience_day

Knex. wrote: »

That's not a complete way of looking at it, I think? Might not make a massive difference, but you need to factor in the mortgage repayments and interest of the house prices over the 30 years.

House price now is 420,000.
Mortgage of 378,000 @ 3.15% over 30 years.
Monthly repayments: €1,624.41
Total mortgage: €584,785.95

House price reduces 5%, say, and is €399,000.
Mortgage is now €359,100 over 30 years.
Monthly repayments €1,543.19
Total mortgage: €555,546.65

Total savings: 29,239.30.

So you're saving an extra 10k over the 30 years, not just the 20k drop in price. Now, you may be comfortable writing that extra 10k off over the course of 30 years, but the previous figure you gave with regards to breaking even isn't entirely accurate.

But if you say that takes a year to wait for....he'll have paid out 19,200 in rent. Meaning a saving of 10k.

And the time value of 19k now is substantially more than 10k over 30 years...

Edit: not saying either way. I know plenty of older folks in my workplace that bought at height of last boom. Yes they paid more on their mortgages but they are now 10 years ahead of others who waited. Whilst enjoying their own house.

SozBbz

Experience_day wrote: »

But if you say that takes a year to wait for....he'll have paid out 19,200 in rent. Meaning a saving of 10k.

And the time value of 19k now is substantially more than 10k over 30 years...

Edit: not saying either way. I know plenty of older folks in my workplace that bought at height of last boom. Yes they paid more on their mortgages but they are now 10 years ahead of others who waited. Whilst enjoying their own house.

Exactly, when we're talking about people buying a home for themselves and their famailies, you can't aproach it like a cold hearted investor.

I know people in their mid 30s who are still going to try to buy. They know nothing is going to happen for a while as govt offices are closed and you wouldn't get the legalities through right now, but in their eyes they don't have another 5 years to sit on the fence waiting for a price drop that might come, that might not, or that might come but actually be not terribly significant. Let alone even the fact that if things do get bad, availability of credit could become an issue.

These people want ot get their mortgage drawn down before they have children, ideally because of the impact of having dependants has on what you can borrow. They also will be facing a shorter term with every year that passes, making repayments more. They want to get on with their lives, and there frankly isnt time to waste.

SozBbz

GreeBo wrote: »

If they are in no rush to sell then it wont be.
Anyone who wants to live on that road will pounce on the chance as houses dont come up for sale too often.

Thats kinda been my whole point on this thread, desirable areas will always have demand due to low supply.

I know that area veeery well. There will always be people wanting to live on Valentia Road. Its expensive but its a massive house and the gardens on that road are incredible for being so close to town. Overlooking the church grounds of Corpus Christi, walks on Griffith Avenue, great schools in the area..... its actually lovely.

Whatever happens to prices, relatively speaking that house will always be extremely desirable. Also it says the owner is downsizing for lifestyle reasons and wants to stay in the broader area, so they are probably in no real rush.

dontparkhere

I may as well throw my completely uneducated predications into the mix based on reading the newspaper and boards.ie.

I can’t understand the amount of people reveling in in a possible drop in property prices. I can’t see how a massive global recession will help people. If anything the last recession furthered wealth inequality.

Property prices will fall in the short to medium term. Hard to see massive falls with the central bank’s prudent lending policy over the past few years.
Building will slow down, stricter mortgage criteria, less property transactions.
Quantitative easing will be used to stimulate the economy pushing asset prices and property prices up.
Ireland’s economy will recover but we won’t be as badly affected as manufacturing economies such as Germany.
In 2-3ish years time we will still have the same problem but worse with a poor supply of quality affordable accommodation.

I think/hope a lot more people have been infected than we realize. Estimates in New York are 15-20%. Once antibody testing is available we will have a better idea of where we are at.
A gradual reopening of economy with eased restrictions will have to happen sooner or later. It would really make you wonder how quickly society could break down.

Padre_Pio

Experience_day wrote: »

But if you say that takes a year to wait for....he'll have paid out 19,200 in rent. Meaning a saving of 10k.

And the time value of 19k now is substantially more than 10k over 30 years...

Edit: not saying either way. I know plenty of older folks in my workplace that bought at height of last boom. Yes they paid more on their mortgages but they are now 10 years ahead of others who waited. Whilst enjoying their own house.

Hmm, if you're happy to overpay the difference of €81 a month (1624-1543) then you'll save another 17k in interest payments.

So you're saving near 30k, after the rent has been subtracted.

Marius34

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Hmm, if you're happy to overpay the difference of €81 a month (1624-1543) then you'll save another 17k in interest payments.

So you're saving near 30k, after the rent has been subtracted.

It's wrong calculation. If you take in one option to be all assets payed out within 30 years, in this case by 2050. You should compare with same terms on other options what you will have by 2050.
If you decide to Rent for example another 2 years, and then buy. You would need to count 2 years rent + 28 years Mortgage.
It still may be a case, that it's worth to wait 2 years, but the previous numbers is not rightly comparable.

cnocbui

dontparkhere wrote: »

...

I can’t understand the amount of people reveling in in a possible drop in property prices. I can’t see how a massive global recession will help people. If anything the last recession furthered wealth inequality.

...

It's very simple, they are mostly people who want to buy a bargain at someone else's expense. Their glee at the prospect of property price falls will end the minute the bank has bought them a property and is leasing it back to them.

The people who really benefit from disastrous property price falls are investors and vulture funds.

Turkeys voting for christmas.

lalababa

Now don't get angry and this is only a suggestion with no facts or factoids or anecdotal evidence or anything but...
I think yeer all wrong re property prices 2020. And I think anyone who thinks differently is deluded to the extreme no matter what hullabaloo they read from any source. So there!

eagle eye

lalababa wrote:

Now don't get angry and this is only a suggestion with no facts or factoids or anecdotal evidence or anything but... I think yeer all wrong re property prices 2020. And I think anyone who thinks differently is deluded to the extreme no matter what hullabaloo they read from any source. So there!

No facts, figures or reasoning.

Gradius

It's interesting to see things and listen to discussion etc... But!

It's all just nitpicking, isn't it?

If a recession is around the corner or already started, property values will fall. If its a mild recession (whatever that means exactly), there will be a concomitant fall in property prices.

Drastic recession? Drastic drops.

Coming into a boom? Booming property prices.

Gold will go up, go down, oil will go up, go down.

My point is that it's all VERY simplistic at the end of the day, and poring over statistics and quotes and reports and sentiments are only going to tell you what you already know. It's predictable, and especially so in such a globally exposed economy like ours. No need to waste time on it, to be honest! But a bit of chatter does no harm I suppose.

Gamb!t

I wonder will it be be harder to get a mortgage once things start getting back to normal.
Will banks be looking for larger deposits?

[Deleted User]

Gamb!t wrote: »

I wonder will it be be harder to get a mortgage once things start getting back to normal.
Will banks be looking for larger deposits?

It might be for some, the exemptions etc will likely be a thing of the past. Some sectors are very hard hit from this. Restaurants and hair salons etc, lots of folk will have a severe hole in their earnings and that will make them less then ideal mortgage applicants.

Gradius

Gamb!t wrote: »

I wonder will it be be harder to get a mortgage once things start getting back to normal.
Will banks be looking for larger deposits?

Well it's like I was saying above, there's really no mystery to this stuff.

Recession on the cards right now = banks feeling iffy

Recession looking more likely in a few more months = likely falling property prices = more iffy banks become about lending into possibly devaluing market.

Etc.

There are, I suppose, three phases.

1) there is a boom
2) there is a recession
3) that small period of time where it could be either 1 or 2.

It's fair to say we're in 3 now, right? Lots of guessing and apprehension. It won't last long though.

The thing about property and certain other asset classes is that they are positively glacial in movement. It's not like "they" will announce on a Tuesday that it's officially recession time (forget definitions), and then you have 20 minutes to grab a bargain. Vice versa, if a boom is officially happening, you ll have more than 1 day to sell.

These things aren't daily trades on the nyse, which 1% can be killer within minutes.

If a recession is happening, it will be very apparent. And then you have years in which to make a decision on grabbing that falling knife!

So will it be harder to get a loan going into a recession? Yes, 100%, zero doubts.

All being in general, naturally.

It's predictable. Just take a step back and look at the only picture that matters, the big one

Mad_maxx

sorry to drag off topic but the REIT IRES is down very sharply this year , i realise its traded like any other stock ( and so got thrown out with the rest ) but can we draw any conclusions at all from the price movement in terms of what might be in store for the on the ground residential market ? , that fund owns a lot of apartments in dublin

how have UK or other european REIT,s performed ?

Gradius

Mad_maxx wrote: »

sorry to drag off topic but the REIT IRES is down very sharply this year , i realise its traded like any other stock ( and so got thrown out with the rest ) but can we draw any conclusions at all from the price movement in terms of what might be in store for the on the ground residential market ? , that fund owns a lot of apartments in dublin

how have UK or other european REIT,s performed ?

Well it's certainly an indicator of "ill-at-ease".

But to stress my point again, if everything is going to fall asunder, you'd be mad to do anything for ar least a year afterwards.

Unless you're trading on these groups regularly trying to grab a percentage here or there, the overall effect on actual property won't be anything to act upon for ages.

Less stress = more success

no panic in these things

hardybuck

kevinc565 wrote: »

You need to go above 1.5m to see that generally

Agreed - and I have.

Assetbacked

For the rental market, demand is going to be low until at least September this year.

New demand won't be created until foreign travel is accepted again and it looks like we will be going until September at least without importing new people in the form of tourists, students and workers (that is even a best case scenario).

The more lucrative jobs the past few years in financial services look like they have started to pre-empt the fallout over the coming months, with some places starting to implement expense-saving measures by cutting partner/employee payouts and hours. If these places are cutting costs then it is clear that no business will be spared some form of haircut as a result of the crisis.

Without dropping rents fairly substantially, potentially landlords could be looking at 6 months at least without any occupation in their property since this lockdown began in mid-March. The greater supply of places on Daft.ie will put even further downward pressure on prices.

Construction workers are due to return to work in a few weeks and there are a lot of new dwellings with planning permission to be commenced this year, which will add to supply while at the same time demand stalls.

This isn't a comment on the buying and selling market as it is essentially frozen right now and price movements will be slower to appear, but for rentals it is very possible that the difference in rents from just before this crisis began to when it starts to ease could be substantial (15%+).

eagle eye

18647 houses listed on my home.ie today. I think somebody said there were over 19000 two days ago.