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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Graham

Mod Note

Hubertj if you have to resort to name calling, it is time to step away from the keyboard.

Please read the forum charter before posting again.

Donald Trump

beauf wrote: »

My issues with this complaining about green land and let's build high density everywhere is that is very dated concept that was done in the past and proved to be a social disaster. Once you've created this concrete jungle it's very hard to come back from it. More modern urban planning is trying to get these green spaces back, and here we are trying to get rid of it and recreate a tribute in concrete to the 1970s.

If you are going to build high density do it properly not just randomly by picking locations that are unsuitable. Why point at green land that borders a protected amenity area and in a green belt that is unsuitable, when there is active planning (currently turned down) for 600+ apartments not a mile away.

The govt hasn't shown any interest in affordable or social housing for 20yrs plus.

I never said what to do with any of that land. Just that it was there. Nobody mentioned anything about a green belt.

On the point of other potential development land being sat on and not built, it might not mean that there is not a demand for them - there just might not be enough demand for the developer to get the prices he would like to squeeze out. And he might be in a position to sit on them for years. That is why I would prefer a vacant levy to be brought in and enforced.

On the point of high density and green space, they are not mutually exclusive. Manhattan has the fabulous central park in the middle of it. I would argue that there is a happy middle ground. Ireland is not NY of course. And you can't just throw up towers like old Ballymun. On the other hand, sprawling estates out in Blanchardstown and Mulhuddart are hardly vastly improved by having plenty of waste bits of ground, or a few neglected soccer pitches thrown around the place.

If we are facing into a dip for 2020 and beyond (which seems likely), then perhaps it is the time to implement some changes while we are in that dip. It is too difficult to do them when the market is flying.

Empty_Space

Hubertj wrote: »

dear oh dear. are you another 1 of those bull and bear to*sers? Or have you been talking to 1?

Once you called me a to*ser. You lost all credibility.

Empty_Space

JimmyVik wrote: »

When should I sell and when should I buy?
Asking for a friend.

Well obviously sell everything now.

Then you shouldnt be thinking of when to buy, but what to buy. And I dont mean what stocks.

Hubertj

Empty_Space wrote: »

The recession hasnt even started. And its not a recession, it will be a depression.
Will only begin once corona stuff settles down a bit.

It could last 10 years. The stock market has had a bounce back fueled by greed.
But soon it will take a real fall and then everything else will go with it.

dear oh dear. are you another 1 of those bull and bear sensationalists? Or have you been talking to 1?

coolshannagh28

JimmyVik wrote: »

When should I sell and when should I buy?
Asking for a friend.

Peak was mid 2019 , bottom could be 2022 .

Padre_Pio

JimmyVik wrote: »

When should I sell and when should I buy?
Asking for a friend.

You should have sold in early 2008.
You should have bought in early 2012.

I'll update you on the latest figures in a few years. Anything else is fortune telling.

JimmyVik

Empty_Space wrote: »

The recession hasnt even started. And its not a recession, it will be a depression.
Will only begin once corona stuff settles down a bit.

It could last 10 years. The stock market has had a bounce back fueled by greed.
But soon it will take a real fall and then everything else will go with it.

When should I sell and when should I buy?
Asking for a friend.

Empty_Space

Pablo_Flox wrote: »

This quote tells me everything I need to know. Anyone who describes 2008 as a normal downturn doesn't know their arse from their elbow.

Your'e thinking is constrained by the short term thinking dictated by your human life span.
2008 was a recession. This will be a depression that far exceeds even previous depressions due to our massive populations and financial cheating that has gone on for decades.

Padre_Pio

Hubertj wrote: »

can you elaborate on that? Is it because the onset of recession has been so fast and the recovery is estimated to be "relatively" quick with decent growth in 2021 and 2022? So prices bottom out quicker?

What recovery?

This thread is turning into the stock market thread, with all sorts of wild predictions.

Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Empty_Space

Hubertj wrote: »

can you elaborate on that? Is it because the onset of recession has been so fast and the recovery is estimated to be "relatively" quick with decent growth in 2021 and 2022? So prices bottom out quicker?

The recession hasnt even started. And its not a recession, it will be a depression.
Will only begin once corona stuff settles down a bit.

It could last 10 years. The stock market has had a bounce back fueled by greed.
But soon it will take a real fall and then everything else will go with it.

AmberGold

Will be a hard job getting this away for the asking;

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/living-next-door-to-dermot-bannon-family-home-with-reclaimed-marble-church-arches-on-the-same-street-as-room-to-improve-star-39152417.html

Pablo_Flox

Empty_Space wrote: »

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008.

This quote tells me everything I need to know. Anyone who describes 2008 as a normal downturn doesn't know their arse from their elbow.

Hubertj

Empty_Space wrote: »

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

can you elaborate on that? Is it because the onset of recession has been so fast and the recovery is estimated to be "relatively" quick with decent growth in 2021 and 2022? So prices bottom out quicker?

lomb

Somewhere like California you could make alot of money now with the uncertanty. Buy some fixer upper for 400, fix up over next 3 months for 50, flip for 600. Sadly neither the tax situation works here on rolling over the profits to the next flip ,the lending institutions are run by socialist gombeens policied by a judiciary who won't evict anyone for not paying their mortgage, and the price differentials here between wrecks and good ones isn't subatansial enough.

seasidedub

I'd agree with posters who say there won't be a huge price drop in the immediate future - it did take until 2011 after the previous crash for houses to bottom out. More likely that the market stagnates and fewer interesting properties available. High end apartments are not selling well, so possible reductions there, but otherwise stagnating market is my guess.

I just closed with pre-covid price locked in, now renting, but won't hang about, will buy asap as am paying 2k a month rent.

Cyrus

Empty_Space wrote: »

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

you do understand that for this to happen people have to sell, who is going to sell in this scenario?

Pablo_Flox

Empty_Space wrote: »

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

Can you look into the crystal ball you have and tell us what the supply of houses to the market will be like at these new "unprecedented drops" in price? Do you predict builders will start new projects to break even? Do you think families in negative equity will sell and just eat the loss? Or do you think maybe supply will be piss-poor and only people forced to sell (mainly bank repossessions and estate sales).

Im my opinion if you are in the market for an old fixer upper to flip and don't care too much about location then maybe wait. If you want an A or B rated family house that you are going to stay in for 10+ years then buy when it suits and don't worry about temp drops in the market. You are taking a huge risk that suitable houses will be for sale at the bottom of the price curve.

Empty_Space

GreeBo wrote: »

I can honestly say that I cannot refute a single one of the facts you have presented...

Do sure, but Im not going to argue with you.
I have learned its a pointless exercise to argue with someone on something that is so obvious.
One can always find arguments to convince themselves of the illogical.

Zenify

GreeBo wrote: »

I can honestly say that I cannot refute a single one of the facts you have presented...

Do you not sleep?

GreeBo

Empty_Space wrote: »

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

I can honestly say that I cannot refute a single one of the facts you have presented...

Empty_Space

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

lomb

Hubertj wrote: »

can you flesh this out a bit as i don't follow so don't know if i agree or disagree.

I understand that property can be cheaper than the rebuild cost but why does that mean land has 0 value?

Im buying a house (agreed just before Corona )

I'm paying 100 less than rebuild if I valued land and planning at 100k then I'm paying 200k less
I didn't reneg as in my opinion its fully depreciated despite what any gimp thinks. Obviously older building standards hence some difference but this explains it better

https://fora.ie/cost-of-an-apartment-in-dublin-building-3660640-Oct2017/

Also I watched this on utube . She's 24 and taken a mortgage for 4400 a month. I know it's Seattle with better jobs and lower taxes but still 4400 a month every month for 30 years. I'll have a 25 year year at less than half that and Im v happy.
Look up Monica Church mortgage

JimmyVik

James 007 wrote: »

House prices are rising again. 7.5% in this case, its the pandemic effect taking place.

We will advertise it at this price to get our Jan asking price:P
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/drumcondra/9-fitzroy-avenue-drumcondra-dublin-2359898/

Sorry we under valued our property back then:o
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/could-this-be-the-perfect-match-for-395k-in-drumcondra-1.4138266

Any chance of this price drop please:rolleyes:
https://thepropertypin.com/t/9-fitzroy-avenue-drumcondra-dublin-9-150k-33/23600

Is that table in the living room supposed to be round?

kevinc565

hardybuck wrote: »

At the higher end of the market you can see 30% swings fairly regularly.

You need to go above 1.5m to see that generally

beauf

Another 1200 here...

More than 1,200 new homes to be developed at site of Central Mental Hospital https://jrnl.ie/5082644

beauf

Donald Trump wrote: »

Hi. That's lovely. But does not make my link incorrect.

One poster asked where there was land inside the M50.
Another responded pointing out the fields off Griffith Avenue at the back of DCU (and also the ones around the Archbishops house).
I added that there are fields used for agriculture in Castleknock. Owned by the some descendants of the Guinness family.

They are real. They are there. It's not a conspiracy. They are there whether there is smog or not. What you think should be done with them is an entirely different topic. Your preference one way or the other does make them not be there. It is not some kind of Scrodinger's "field" where they only exist when you measure or acknowledge them.

I was only answering the posters question as to examples of locations of such land.

My issues with this complaining about green land and let's build high density everywhere is that is very dated concept that was done in the past and proved to be a social disaster. Once you've created this concrete jungle it's very hard to come back from it. More modern urban planning is trying to get these green spaces back, and here we are trying to get rid of it and recreate a tribute in concrete to the 1970s.

If you are going to build high density do it properly not just randomly by picking locations that are unsuitable. Why point at green land that borders a protected amenity area and in a green belt that is unsuitable, when there is active planning (currently turned down) for 600+ apartments not a mile away.

The govt hasn't shown any interest in affordable or social housing for 20yrs plus.

beauf

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And this is it.

Why do people expect such swings to manifest weeks into a crisis where it's impossible to sell a house?

The property lows after the 2008 crash were in 2010 and 2011.
If there is a significant drop, it could take years to show.

Because people can only see what they want to have happen. They selectively pick facts that suit the story they have in their head. They aren't looking at all the facts or the timelines or the bigger picture. Especially where it's doesn't suit.

hardybuck

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And this is it.

Why do people expect such swings to manifest weeks into a crisis where it's impossible to sell a house?

The property lows after the 2008 crash were in 2010 and 2011.
If there is a significant drop, it could take years to show.

At the end of the day investment property should be viewed as a medium to long term investment, I wouldn't be panicking about a dip in something I expect to have over a good number of years.

In those years you had a lot of people having a go at property investment borrowing more than they could realistically afford. At least the revised mortgage lending rules put paid to that in recent years.

Padre_Pio

hardybuck wrote: »

There are many people with properties they own outright that are just sitting tight for the right time to exit. They might be planning to use that to fund their retirement, nest egg for their kids, or they might just exit to any other form of investment opportunity.

There are plenty of people who are availing of cheap finance, very happy with their rent yield, and who can probably expect cheap finance for the next 3-5 years. They'll happily sit even if the rental market dips.

You also have a cohort of people going to sell sometime before end 2021 to benefit from capital gains exemptions. They'll also happily wait until next year to see how it goes.

And this is it.

Why do people expect such swings to manifest weeks into a crisis where it's impossible to sell a house?

The property lows after the 2008 crash were in 2010 and 2011.
If there is a significant drop, it could take years to show.