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Is it just me or have SF vanished?

Pkiernan

I haven't seen or heard anything from Mary Lou, Slab Murphy and other good Republicans in ages.

What's going on?

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Ballso

McMurphy wrote: »

Oh dear oh dear oh dear.

Guess what, the number of people who die in NI is not directly attributable to Sinn Feins front bench, it's a complex issue and easy point scoring sound bites don't cut it.

That wasn't so hard.

BarryD2

markodaly wrote: »

The figures in the North are what they are, like in the South. Now I have no idea if SF/DUP are playing a blinder or not. But perhaps their politicians should realise that they are actually in government somewhere and their electorate are looking to them for leadership. As I said, less twitter more governing.

Indeed let SF get on with things up north and show us southern voters what they are capable off. We'll judge them by that. Do a good job up there for the next decade and who knows.

As it is, all the evidence is that they are more interested in getting elected than actually doing much when they get their bums on the seats. Up to SF to prove otherwise and they HAVE the opportunity to do that up north.

markodaly

McMurphy wrote: »

Someone maybe missed the concerns from TDs and minister's in both party's concerned about a partnership or coalition being problematic for each other in certain constituencies. Trying to pretend they're different to one another will have major complications when it comes to convincing people to vote for one or the other, splitting the vote if you like.

Well, they are different you see. Now I know in the world in SF, everyone not them, is the same. Sure the UUP/DUP/Alliance and SDLP are the same in their book.

However, there are differences, subtle as they are between FF and FG. We all know it.

Merger on the cards perhaps?

Not in the next few decades Id say and a lot can happen between now and then.

I know some like to think that SF is now here to stay as an ever-present major political force in Irish politics, yet they are nowhere near as strong as they think they are.

Their vote in the North has been shrinking over the past few elections.
Their locals last year was a disaster for them.

Much of their vote was not a vote for SF core policy, but was an anti-establishment vote, a vote as fickle as the wind, because as soon as SF steps up and has to go into government and be in that hot seat, that vote will go up in smoke.
The proof of this is of course was the fact that SF ran fewer, yes FEWER candidates in GE 2020 than GE2016.
In other words, they poxxed it. Everyone deserves a bit of luck now and again, but that hot seat will be like the Sword of Damocles.

The core principle of SF to even exist = Irish Unity, I don't think they'll have much to oppose if FFG start working towards that same goal.

Well Irish Unity has always been a goal of FF and FG. Nothing has changed there for the past 100 years...... the thing is, FF and FG have been busy running the state over this time as well.

Now its easy to be a single-issue party in opposition, but that hot seat is getting mighty close and hot for SF.

Partitionists up and down the island north and south will undoubtedly be jumping with joy at the thoughts of United Island unit being introduced.

Some lads don't see far enough ahead of themselves though.

I have no idea what you are trying to convey here.

James Brown

markodaly wrote: »

You, see the difference between you and I?

I will raise those figures once and move on, while you, will spend all day arguing and try and score cheap points, as evidenced by your last post.

The figures in the North are what they are, like in the South. Now I have no idea if SF/DUP are playing a blinder or not. But perhaps their politicians should realise that they are actually in government somewhere and their electorate are looking to them for leadership.

As I said, less twitter more governing.

You did the very thing you castigated others for allegedly doing. That's it simply.
Now you say you do, but don'y harp on it and in the same post re-visit it

markodaly

Bowie wrote: »

You did the very thing you castigated others for allegedly doing. That's it simply.
Now you say you do, but don'y harp on it and in the same post re-visit it

Not at all Matt.
I have already explained it, you understand it, or maybe you dont. I don't know but its not my problem.

aido79

smurgen wrote: »

Populism? Like lieo joining in on the criticism of Keelings after he was part of a call for movement of farm workers during the pandemic?

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1132847/

There is one mention of Leo in that article:

"The ability for migrant seasonal agriculture workers to continue harvesting fruit and vegetables in other member states was specifically requested by EU leaders, including Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, during a video conference on 26 March."

Where did he criticise Keelings?

hatrickpatrick

markodaly wrote: »

I know some like to think that SF is now here to stay as an ever-present major political force in Irish politics, yet they are nowhere near as strong as they think they are.

Their vote in the North has been shrinking over the past few elections.
Their locals last year was a disaster for them.

Much of their vote was not a vote for SF core policy, but was an anti-establishment vote, a vote as fickle as the wind, because as soon as SF steps up and has to go into government and be in that hot seat, that vote will go up in smoke.
The proof of this is of course was the fact that SF ran fewer, yes FEWER candidates in GE 2020 than GE2016.

I have never in my life voted for SF before this election and I gave them my #2 in my constituency, where I normally put all four major parties at the very bottom of my ballot paper. I know many, many, many people my age (mid twenties to thirty) who gave them a high or first preference after never being interested in voting for them before this year.

What changed since 2016? Rents went through the f*cking roof, peoples quality of life was utterly decimated from it compared with what people had become accustomed to, and Fine Gael's complete and utter pr!ck of a housing minister was insufferably smug about it, suggesting that people should be happy to be paying far more for far, far sh!ttier living conditions (specifically, describing the BARTA sh!te for €1,400 a month as a "boutique hotel" where you could rent a decent self contained studio for half that only a few years previous) while simultaneously and very publicly blocking the construction of proper social housing (the O'Devaney development was probably the biggest flashpoint among people in my social circle, at least from my own anecdotal observations).

Here's the thing: That issue is not going away unless someone actually does something about it. Fine Gael are ideologically opposed to doing what needs to be done. Fianna Fail are, in their current iteration, ideologically opposed to doing what needs to be done. Both parties are directly responsible in different ways for the crisis we have in housing. The generation of voters who have experienced and are experiencing this clusterf*ck over the last two years are not going anywhere. FFG are not going to solve the problem, ergo this cohort of voters is never going to vote for them. And even if they do solve it, they will not be forgiven for the "let them eat cake" attitude they displayed, particularly throughout 2019 (I'm talking specifically about their attitude and the smugness with which they happily condemned a whole generation to a sh!t quality of life and acted as if that was something we should just learn to live with).

The reason SF surged between their disastrous LE performance and their incredible GE performance is because the crisis boiled over during the summer of 2019. So many people I know who had been renting since the middle of this decade were evicted for one reason or another and returned after just a few short years to a rental market which expected them to pay orders of magnitude more than they had being paying for orders of magnitude sh!ttier accommodation. And FG - and their cheerleaders - refused to acknowledge that this was an actual problem. I can point to countless posts from this very forum in which people took the "tough, that's life, live with it" attitude despite the very obvious and very universal paradigm that moving from college education and part time work to full time employment is supposed to bring an increase in living standards, and certainly not a massive downgrade as has happened with everyone who lost their rental accommodation in the last year and has had to settle for something orders of magnitude less comfortable for a ridiculously higher price.

Those people will not vote for FFG. Even if FFG solve the problem, personally I believe that people have been so screwed and hurt by their policies and their smug attitude to others' suffering that forgiveness just won't be a thing. Those I know who went through this situation feel a visceral hatred towards Fine Gael which in all honesty is more intense than the anger they felt at FF for destroying their prospects just as they were getting ready to leave secondary school in and around 2008. You don't get those people back on your side after treating them the way this generation has been treated by FG.

Now, maybe you're right in that the specific vote for Sinn Fein is a transient thing. Perhaps it is. But it's not going back to FFG or their cheerleaders Labour and the Greens. If this generation's faith in SF collapses, their votes will go to SocDems, PBP, independents, and probably a new left wing party which will almost inevitably form in order to capitalise on any such SF collapse.

Bottom line is, those voters will not go back to the civil war parties. Not after being wronged by both of them in such a deeply fundamental way.

McMurphy

markodaly wrote: »

You, see the difference between you and I?

I will raise those figures once and move on, while you, will spend all day arguing and try and score cheap points, as evidenced by your last post.

The figures in the North are what they are, like in the South. Now I have no idea if SF/DUP are playing a blinder or not. But perhaps their politicians should realise that they are actually in government somewhere and their electorate are looking to them for leadership.

As I said, less twitter more governing.

Not so for the victims of the troubles though, no need for me to link back to my post outling how you have had 100s of posts using the deaths of others to point score for years now - it's there for all see - and they will return soon after this pandemic passes, as sure as night follows day.

Ballso wrote: »

Guess what, the number of people who die in NI is not directly attributable to Sinn Feins front bench, it's a complex issue and easy point scoring sound bites don't cut it.

That wasn't so hard.

You quoting the wrong poster?

Or did mark buy a dog that's not yet up to speed on who its supposed to be barking at?

markodaly

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Bottom line is, those voters will not go back to the civil war parties. Not after being wronged by both of them in such a deeply fundamental way.

The rest aside, but how do you know? The fact is, you don't.

Do you think a SF led left-wing government would not be without its issues, its conflicts, its head-scratching moments? Irish left-wing politics is notoriously fickle and weak bellied. There is nothing to indicate that SF are more competent than what we have had before. Just look at their record, its dire and terrible.

As the saying goes, be careful about what you wish for and also, people forget.
They forget what SF/IRA was about when they were murdering Irish Gardai and defence forces personal.
They forget that FF destroyed the economy.
They will surely thus forget some of FG misdemeanours, as its chicken feed to what came before.

hatrickpatrick

markodaly wrote: »

The rest aside, but how do you know? The fact is, you don't.

For the same reason the civil war allegiances are so entrenched in older generations here. You don't suffer through an unbelievable crisis and forgive your government for its mishandling of that crisis. In my generation's case, that's both FG and FF. The "anyone but those two again" mentality is ridiculously strong.

Do you think a SF led left-wing government would not be without its issues, its conflicts, its head-scratching moments? Irish left-wing politics is notoriously fickle and weak bellied. There is nothing to indicate that SF are more competent than what we have had before. Just look at their record, its dire and terrible.

Of course it wouldn't be without its issues. I never suggested that it would be. That's why I stated in the post you're quoting that if SF reneges on their commitment to at least trying to deal with the housing crisis, a new party will inevitably form to fill the vacuum.

As the saying goes, be careful about what you wish for and also, people forget.
They forget what SF/IRA was about when they were murdering Irish Gardai and defence forces personal.

Most of the people I'm talking about were barely alive when this was going on.

They forget that FF destroyed the economy.

When it comes to the voters I'm talking about, they haven't. Hence the "f*ck FG, but also f*ck FF" mentality, which is partly what has led to SF's recent surge.

They will surely thus forget some of FG misdemeanours, as its chicken feed to what came before.

Again, I just don't see it happening. Not with the newfound SF voters we're talking about. They may or may not abandon SF if SF get into government and actively vote against what they've promised to vote for, but they won't be going to FF or FG.

markodaly

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

For the same reason the civil war allegiances are so entrenched in older generations here. You don't suffer through an unbelievable crisis and forgive your government for its mishandling of that crisis. In my generation's case, that's both FG and FF. The "anyone but those two again" mentality is ridiculously strong.

That's lovely of course, but again, you are speculating, the fact is you don't know if your prediction will be the actual outcome.

It may be strong now, but those younger people you harp on about, they will get jobs, buy a property, and become part of the establishment so to speak. The older you get, the more conservative you become. It's as true as night becomes day.

Of course it wouldn't be without its issues. I never suggested that it would be. That's why I stated in the post you're quoting that if SF reneges on their commitment to at least trying to deal with the housing crisis, a new party will inevitably form to fill the vacuum.

Votes will therefore go back to FF/FG, they will not all just move to a new party.

Most of the people I'm talking about were barely alive when this was going on.

Don't you think this clouds your judgement then? Its a very small sample size.

When it comes to the voters I'm talking about, they haven't. Hence the "f*ck FG, but also f*ck FF" mentality, which is partly what has led to SF's recent surge.

Yes, younger voters who may not have as much to lose. Now though, they probably have lost their jobs and may have a different mindset?
Whatever you think about FG, they did a good job in creating policies that created lots and lots of jobs.

Easy to forget that in good times, now though with unemployment at 22% it will focus minds, a lot!

Again, I just don't see it happening. Not with the newfound SF voters we're talking about. They may or may not abandon SF if SF get into government and actively vote against what they've promised to vote for, but they won't be going to FF or FG.

Why? FF more than doubled it seats in GE 2016 after the debacle of GE 2011.
You think after 9 years of FG in power, a few years away from the hot seat, FG won't come storming back? They will just disappear into nothing?

FF too?

I can easily see FG storming back after an SF led left-wing government failing, that will ultimately disappoint as they will over-promise (its in their nature).

Again, a 25-year-old voter who has just graduated is a very different beast to a 45-year-old taxpayer voter and property owner.

James Brown

markodaly wrote: »

Not at all Matt.
I have already explained it, you understand it, or maybe you dont. I don't know but its not my problem.

I didn't expect you to own up, so no sweat, ('heart and soul', not a bad tune). You tripped yourself up with the faux moralising.

Oh, and Matt? Nice

Edgware

Anyway we have McDonald on Newstalk this evening and on Friday she gets the Late Late gig with her fellow Covid 19 suffererer Turbridy.
The nations sweetheart, Miriam O Callaghan, missed out on pulling that card.
You have been warned so have the vomit bucket ready for McDonalds ****e talk

tipptom

landofthetree wrote: »

Mary Lou refusing to say how to pay for all this bar " we have to borrow".

Pathetic.

This is the clown that was celebrating an election victory (but still 47 seats short of power) while a pandemic was on the way.

Yeah,two parties that were dragging each other out and tying men to land mines now are forced to join up and they still cannot form a government between them without going cap in hand to corrupt scum like ex FG Lowry and the Healy Raes and the likes and who are now celebrating a "victory" in the eye of a pandemic while people are dying by the score each day!!!

The two parties that are in a death spiral of support for the last three elections and cant put a halt to it because they have to many vested interests to satisfy.

Maybe SF have done the state some service by being the party who have forced these two parties to to turn away from corruption and abandon the likes of Larry Goodman,Owen o Callaghan and sons and Denis o Brien etc for the electorate but it could be like the New York mafia/chicago crime familys,once they have you,they have you for life and there is no way out,someone has to pay for these east Cork holiday homes that was given away.

dxhound2005

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I have never in my life voted for SF before this election and I gave them my #2 in my constituency, where I normally put all four major parties at the very bottom of my ballot paper. I know many, many, many people my age (mid twenties to thirty) who gave them a high or first preference after never being interested in voting for them before this year.

How many, and how did you find out how they voted?

Yurt2

markodaly wrote: »

those younger people you harp on about, they will get jobs, buy a property, and become part of the establishment so to speak.

Were you not paying attention to what was going on the past couple of years?

markodaly wrote: »

Votes will therefore go back to FF/FG, they will not all just move to a new party.

Deluded. The combined share of FF/FG votes has plummeted like property ownership rates over the last few elections. This is a permanent change in the Irish political landscape, and the 'big two' created it.

markodaly wrote: »

Again, a 25-year-old voter who has just graduated is a very different beast to a 45-year-old taxpayer voter and property owner.

45 year old property owners don't magic into existence like some law of nature. The conditions for affordable home ownership need to be there.

The algorithm has changed and quite frankly the traditional big two parties are without a map. In any case, the housing situation, as massive a failure as it is, is just one front.

McMurphy

aido79 wrote: »

There is one mention of Leo in that article:

"The ability for migrant seasonal agriculture workers to continue harvesting fruit and vegetables in other member states was specifically requested by EU leaders, including Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, during a video conference on 26 March."

Where did he criticise Keelings?

Here.

However, when asked about the workers at a briefing on Friday, the Department of Health’s chief medical officer, Tony Holohan, said he was not comfortable with the idea of a company chartering a flight to bring in staff.

He referred to “consistent public health advice” and said medical authorities would continue to keep the issue of travel on their agenda.

In a statement on Friday night, Mr Varadkar said he “shares the discomfort expressed” by Dr Holohan.

Before we go around the houses trying to claim Leo didn't specifically say "criticism/critical of or criticise""

Tony Holohan said "he was not comfortable with the idea of a company chartering a flight to bring in staff"

I think we can all agree that he's referring to Keeling's?

Leo said. he “shares the discomfort expressed” by Dr Holohan.

I think that's safe to say he wasn't too impressed with their shenanigans, you might even say he was critical.

Seriously lads.

Yurt2

Apologies for linking to extra.ie (never heard of it before), but this seems to be a summation of the goings on, and quite frankly, I'd agree with Eoin O'Broin on this one again. He called the FF 100 year lease plan 'stupidity,' and on initial inspection, that's exactly what it appears to be. I'd like to see more detail, as I'll give a policy a chance if it approaches looking decent, but this....

The main two parties are so painfully ridiculously bad on housing it hurts the brain. They're in no position to call anyone economic illiterates if they entertain with proceeding with something like this.

https://extra.ie/2020/04/20/news/politics/fianna-fail-housing-plan

tikkahunter

Yurt! wrote: »

Apologies for linking to extra.ie (never heard of it before), but this seems to be a summation of the goings on, and quite frankly, I'd agree with Eoin O'Broin on this one again. He called the FF 100 year lease plan 'stupidity,' and on initial inspection, that's exactly what it appears to be. I'd like to see more detail, as I'll give a policy a chance if it approaches looking decent, but this....

The main two parties are so painfully ridiculously bad on housing it hurts the brain. They're in no position to call anyone economic illiterates if they entertain with proceeding with something like this.

https://extra.ie/2020/04/20/news/politics/fianna-fail-housing-plan

He was called out on that straight away and removed his tweet as he severely got his figures wrong . He is a twitter merchant and not somebody i would like to be in government .

Mortelaro

Eamon Ryan on six one just now not ruling anything out

[Deleted User]

Ballso wrote: »

Always the victim, always someone else's fault

Their our people dying there...who is directing nhs??

The fcuking english,they arent fit to rule themselves,no mind part of our island

Edgware

Mortelaro wrote: »

Eamon Ryan on six one just now not ruling anything out

Of course he's not.
One day in power is worth a 100 in opposition.
We have enough ***** like the SDs sitting on the fence and looking forward to five years whinging. Joint leaders me arse!

blackwhite

Yurt! wrote: »

Apologies for linking to extra.ie (never heard of it before), but this seems to be a summation of the goings on, and quite frankly, I'd agree with Eoin O'Broin on this one again. He called the FF 100 year lease plan 'stupidity,' and on initial inspection, that's exactly what it appears to be. I'd like to see more detail, as I'll give a policy a chance if it approaches looking decent, but this....

The main two parties are so painfully ridiculously bad on housing it hurts the brain. They're in no position to call anyone economic illiterates if they entertain with proceeding with something like this.

https://extra.ie/2020/04/20/news/politics/fianna-fail-housing-plan

I really wouldn’t be holding that tweet up as anything for O’Broin to be proud of. James Lawless tore him apart on the figures and even after much prompting it took multiple attempts for O’Broin to realise where his own mistakes were.

https://twitter.com/lawlessj/status/1252277189279653894?s=21

McMurphy

Mortelaro wrote: »

Eamon Ryan on six one just now not ruling anything out

Wonder if that was before or after Leo waved this before his face like a donkey with a carrot.

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1253002205029957632?s=19

Whelo79

blackwhite wrote: »

I really wouldn’t be holding that tweet up as anything for O’Broin to be proud of. James Lawless tore him apart on the figures and even after much prompting it took multiple attempts for O’Broin to realise where his own mistakes were.

https://twitter.com/lawlessj/status/1252277189279653894?s=21

Ah but sure let's not post the accurate figures.

https://twitter.com/EOBroin/status/1252289281688731653?s=19

Yurt2

blackwhite wrote: »

I really wouldn’t be holding that tweet up as anything for O’Broin to be proud of. James Lawless tore him apart on the figures and even after much prompting it took multiple attempts for O’Broin to realise where his own mistakes were.

https://twitter.com/lawlessj/status/1252277189279653894?s=21

Wouldn't exactly call Lawless' defense of the hair-brained (that's bad bad bad even on the initial smell test) 'tore apart' when he got his sums wrong himself.

Maybe FF need to sit down and articulate a credible housing policy before declaring victory on Twitter with bad sums on their own policy.

blackwhite

Whelo79 wrote: »

Ah but sure let's not post the accurate figures.

https://twitter.com/EOBroin/status/1252289281688731653?s=19

The ones that took him at least attempts to finally land on - after making mistakes that a LC student would be ashamed of?

It took O'Broin over 24 hours to respond to Lawless initially, and the numbers he put up had one hell of an egregious error in them. It's fairly clear that some advisor in SF sent him the numbers, and he posted them either without understanding NPV enough to realise that they were massively flawed, or without looking at them at all
Anyone with half a brain should be able to tell that the present value of €1.8m isn't €792m.

He even admitted himself afterwards that he struggles with calculating NPV - which is a fairly fundamental thing that needs to be understood if you're looking at long term strategy. Yet somehow we've posters on here claiming that O'Broin's series of tweets demonstrate that it's the others who are economically illiterate??

His folks should be looking for a refund for those fees from Blackrock

Fann Linn

blackwhite wrote: »

The ones that took him at least attempts to finally land on - after making mistakes that a LC student would be ashamed of?

It took O'Broin over 24 hours to respond to Lawless initially, and the numbers he put up had one hell of an egregious error in them. It's fairly clear that some advisor in SF sent him the numbers, and he posted them either without understanding NPV enough to realise that they were massively flawed, or without looking at them at all
Anyone with half a brain should be able to tell that the present value of €1.8m isn't €792m.

He even admitted himself afterwards that he struggles with calculating NPV - which is a fairly fundamental thing that needs to be understood if you're looking at long term strategy. Yet somehow we've posters on here claiming that O'Broin's series of tweets demonstrate that it's the others who are economically illiterate??

His folks should be looking for a refund for those fees from Blackrock

Not as bad however as the Minister for Health with his diagnosis this morning.

blackwhite

Yurt! wrote: »

Wouldn't exactly call Lawless' defense of the hair-brained (that's bad bad bad even on the initial smell test) 'tore apart' when he got his sums wrong himself.

Maybe FF need to sit down and articulate a credible housing policy before declaring victory on Twitter with bad sums on their own policy.

O'Broin claiming he got his sums wrong doesn't make it so - he's used a different discount rate to whatever SF advisor pulled it together, and over a 100 year horizon small assumptions like that can result in big differences in the end number.

all about the mane

Yurt! wrote: »

Oh look, mane is back with his repetitive sexist garbage. How nice to hear the same scrot wheeled out over and over...

Ye must be raging ye are down to 4th choice now...after ‘winning’ the election