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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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eagle eye

The_Conductor wrote:

I don't know what I'd do in your situation- because I don't know your or the seller's motivations. Either way- its an unprecedented time to be buying or selling property. Anyone who offers you definite advice on this- is talking out of their hat. No-one knows what is going to happen.

My intent is to buy a house for life, my wife loves it and wants to go ahead.
The sellers are both in their 70's and it looks to me like they want to ride out the lockdown before they move which is understandable.
Things is, we have to agree to wait 8 weeks before we purchase. Things are going to change a lot in eight weeks I think. I'm not sure we should remain sale agreed.

1sttimebuyer20

eagle eye wrote: »

My intent is to buy a house for life, my wife loves it and wants to go ahead.
The sellers are both in their 70's and it looks to me like they want to ride out the lockdown before they move which is understandable.
Things is, we have to agree to wait 8 weeks before we purchase. Things are going to change a lot in eight weeks I think. I'm not sure we should remain sale agreed.

Stay sale agreed and keep it off the market if you have only put down a booking deposit. I’d look at this as a positive, you now have 8 weeks to see how things play out, we probably won’t have much more of a clearer picture but hopefully there are some more minor indicators available. If in 8 weeks you decide you no longer want to proceed at the current agreed price, reduce your offer and give them a take it or leave it figure

The_Conductor

1sttimebuyer20 wrote: »

Stay sale agreed and keep it off the market if you have only put down a booking deposit. I’d look at this as a positive, you now have 8 weeks to see how things play out, we probably won’t have much more of a clearer picture but hopefully there are some more minor indicators available. If in 8 weeks you decide you no longer want to proceed at the current agreed price, reduce your offer and give them a take it or leave it figure

I'd be inclined to agree- it does sound like they're cocooning and don't want to move at the moment if they can help it. Put a booking deposit down but don't sign contracts until you figure out the lay of the land. All things considered- its 8 weeks, you may get a discount on the current asking price, you don't want it to go back on the market (though it may very well languish if they do go down that road).

eagle eye

Thanks for the advice, we have a deposit down already.

1sttimebuyer20

eagle eye wrote: »

Thanks for the advice, we have a deposit down already.

Best of luck with it, hope you and your wife make the right move, whatever that may be for you. Hopefully a win-win situation for you and the sellers comes of it

handlemaster

Sunday Indo saying bank valuers dropping 10% off agreed prices when submitting estimate to bank.

Hubertj

handlemaster wrote: »

Sunday Indo saying bank valuers dropping 10% off agreed prices when submitting estimate to bank.

Saw that. Seems prudent in the short term given the current circumstances. I would assume most businesses / industries are factoring corona into their business plans.

Thargor

They could also end up cocooning for the rest of their lives so dont get too attached to it.

1sttimebuyer20

handlemaster wrote: »

Sunday Indo saying bank valuers dropping 10% off agreed prices when submitting estimate to bank.

Had a valuation done in March, they valued the house I am sale agreed on at €20k more than the house attached to it went for in November before covid-19 even hit Wuhan (price for house next door was not available when I made my initial offer) the difference in price certainly can’t be for the condition as the one I am sale agreed on needs serious serious work.

Personally, I found that a bit cheeky. Still negotiating at the moment but at this stage, I will be looking for a price of 15-20% lower than the house attached sold for in November, so my original offer, minus 20k, minus another 15-20%

PommieBast

handlemaster wrote: »

Sunday Indo saying bank valuers dropping 10% off agreed prices when submitting estimate to bank.

Any reason stated? To me that looks like a self-furfilling prophecy in the making..

Dwarf.Shortage

PommieBast wrote: »

Any reason stated? To me that looks like a self-furfilling prophecy in the making..

It's a perfect way for the bank to torpedo lending they don't want on their books now even though they wanted it 3 months ago.

Some edge case application who just about got approved for a 90% LTV mortgage and the bank now have cold feet. Valuation comes in 10% lower than agreed price, applicant can't come up with the €20-30k to bridge the gap. Either the vendor plays ball and drops price (reducing credit risk for bank) or transaction doesn't happen.

lomb

Makes no sense as valuations by defination should be a trailing measure- willing buyer /willing seller in arms length transaction etc . No one knows the values in a month or two have to wait for stats.
We can all speculate as to what they will be etc

Dwarf.Shortage

lomb wrote: »

Makes no sense as valuations by defination should be a trailing measure- willing buyer /willing seller in arms length transaction etc . No one knows the values in a month or two have to wait for stats.
We can all speculate as to what they will be etc

I think when that data isn't available but there is clear and obvious reasons to think it going to be substantially lower then it's fair to apply an estimated adjustment.

lomb

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

I think when that data isn't available but there is clear and obvious reasons to think it going to be substantially lower then it's fair to apply an estimated adjustment.

Not their job though, that's banks.

Dwarf.Shortage

lomb wrote: »

Not their job though, that's banks.

These valuations are being made on behalf of banks?

OttoPilot

lomb wrote: »

Makes no sense as valuations by defination should be a trailing measure- willing buyer /willing seller in arms length transaction etc . No one knows the values in a month or two have to wait for stats.
We can all speculate as to what they will be etc

Well if you value it from an investment perspective, it is worth the present value of future rent you would receive for it. At the moment, rents are falling a lot.

Empty_Space

Are people seriously buying right now. I can understand there are many sellers trying to jump ship...but who is mad enough to buy, we haven't even begun to see potential drops.

PommieBast

Empty_Space wrote: »

Are people seriously buying right now. I can understand there are many sellers trying to jump ship...but who is mad enough to buy, we haven't even begun to see potential drops.

It is all speculative. There will be a few places 40% down but they will mostly be hovels that were not intended as primary residences.

Empty_Space

PommieBast wrote: »

It is all speculative. There will be a few places 40% down but they will mostly be hovels that were not intended as primary residences.

Of course it is, but they are not going higher.
They can only go down, how much remains to be seen. Why risk it?

PommieBast

Empty_Space wrote: »

They can only go down, how much remains to be seen. Why risk it?

Risk is meaningless without quantifying the down-side cost, and for some people the latter is an acceptable balance against other factors. When a market goes down the prime places simple disappear.

Bigmac1euro

awec wrote: »

Of course houses aren’t paid in full before being built, that wasn’t the point.

Non refundable deposits are paid and contracts are signed though. Developers are generally not left trying to sell completed houses, the houses are sold long before their built.

They aren’t deliberately waiting for the contract before committing to build, but market forces in recent years have meant that this is what has happened by default most of the time.

Only idiots are paying non refundable deposits on houses that don’t exist. Any solicitor who is decent has a clause.

Cyrus

this seems punchy

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-strand-street-skerries-county-dublin/4415865

Looking for a developer to buy obviously.

nerrad01

OttoPilot wrote: »

Well if you value it from an investment perspective, it is worth the present value of future rent you would receive for it. At the moment, rents are falling a lot.

even from a non investment viewpoint i was looking at buying a place but being single, I was definitely factoring in the possibility of being able to rent out at room. That has all changed now.

Even in my current rental place one of our housemates in moving in july, we have been paying the landlord €2400 per month. I cant see us being able to get someone in for the €800 p/m with the new supply, so definitely time for renegotiation across every part of the property sector.

SozBbz

Cyrus wrote: »

this seems punchy

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-strand-street-skerries-county-dublin/4415865

Looking for a developer to buy obviously.

Yikes, Skerries? Like its a grand town and whatnot but its not an overly convenient location and a 836sqm plot it not that big for development and its also long and narrow, so there are more limited options of what you can fit on the site.

Mic 1972

Empty_Space wrote: »

Are people seriously buying right now. I can understand there are many sellers trying to jump ship...but who is mad enough to buy, we haven't even begun to see potential drops.

Agencies aren't even replying to inquiries, not sure how can people buy
I contacted 2 agencies last week and got no response

SozBbz

There are definitely people out there thinking there is still money to be spent on property, especially for those trading down I'd guess, judging by these new homes just launched in Mount Merrion.

I used to live in the area until recently and saw these being built. They knocked what was either a single house or a pair of semis (can't remember) but have fitted 7 units on the site.

https://turkingtonrock.com/portfolio/stone-park-mount-merrion/

The smallest unit is a 3 Bed Duplex / 122 sq m. Prices starting at €775k.

hmmm

Empty_Space wrote: »

Are people seriously buying right now. I can understand there are many sellers trying to jump ship...but who is mad enough to buy, we haven't even begun to see potential drops.

This is the same thing we saw during 2008/2009, and why holding out for large drops is such a difficult strategy - the banks are reducing the number of mortgages they are offering, and it's hard to know when to jump in or whether you even have a secure income. Anytime prices are falling is often also a period of great personal uncertainty.

There is also a tidal wave of central bank and fiscal stimulus coming both now and in the future which has to affect asset prices - whether it drives them up, or simply cushions a fall, is again very difficult to know.

fliball123

Reversal wrote: »

Or reality dawns on sellers that they can’t just “hold out for the price they want”. And they reduce the price to match the bank valuation. It’s that or bust.

If they hold out for 10 years surely they will get more. This is where people are being blind. I agree prices will drop but the amount of property after being tugged off the market in the last month is huge and others will follow.. You need to think about the sellers in my opinion there are 4 types

You have Reits and investment funds and large private landlords who if they move now will not get their money back , rents have not dropped by much an by renting they get a steady income and and afford to wait. Why would you crystallize your losses??

You have smaller landlords these guys in my opinion are the ones that may be in trouble. The fact is the small landlord has been getting out of the game for the last 5/6 years with the punitive tax rates and crazy tenant laws that means they are a sucker for any tenant who wants to act the b0ll0x. They may be the ones who will take the hair cut but then again they also have the option of just renting through this period so unless the gun is to their head they will not sell either.

You have people up-sizing/downsizing - There may be some activity here but with corona putting a go slow on EAs, Banks, solicitors, Movers, Tilers, Sparks, Plumbers, Painters, etc...why the hell would you move now?

Then there are those leaving the country - Is there is flights out...?? If there is the corona virus is every where, where are you going to and how will you set yourself up.

The fact is everyone is looking at this from the buyers side, I think sellers will have seen how the market bounced back after 3/4 years in 08 and are ready to wait and are pulling properties from the market 50 properties less on myhome today than there was on Friday.

I can not see much activity for the next few months and when everything kicks back in we will see how the market is but if I was a seller I would not be putting my property up until the market has bounced back.

Eric Cartman

Empty_Space wrote: »

Are people seriously buying right now. I can understand there are many sellers trying to jump ship...but who is mad enough to buy, we haven't even begun to see potential drops.

or what if those buying now are leveraging a modest 5-10% drop because the central banks might undertake massive QE which will cause inflation and prices go nowhere making those buyers shrewd.

its absolutely not an empathetic answer at all, but with all the elderly people dying, if you found a house where an elderly person was living and their kids were now out of work / fearful of the economy , id say they'd bite your hand off for 90% of asking.

OwlsZat

handlemaster wrote: »

Sunday Indo saying bank valuers dropping 10% off agreed prices when submitting estimate to bank.

It's pertinent they don't look stupid. Pretending everything is OK wouldn't be very professional.

What do people think about the EU idea to start up an EU version of NAMA? It's gas how they say the majorily of the bad debt is around since 2008's crash.