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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Ozark707

Spring Celebrator wrote: »

So I guess asking for a 5% reduction in price atm woudn't be too cheeky (price is around 250k). I imagine they rather sell the house slightly cheaper than sit on it.
btw 2 houses that we were considering to buy are back on the market (from sale agreed).

If it is 5% you are looking to get off then you better go in with an initial ask of more than a 5% haircut.

Spring Celebrator

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I'm in the same boat. Paused my sale until all this is over.

Don't want to immediately end up in negative equity, planning to sell on in a few years.

I actually dont want to wait too much as I pay a rent higher than the morgage repaiments woud be and I am looking for a long term family home.

Hubertj

Ozark707 wrote: »

If it plays out this way then many in the building trade will not be going back to work when the restrictions are lifted. This should then impact the rental market as I imagine many of them (especially who are not from here) will go to countries where they will be in demand.

Where will there be demand though? Whole world will be a ****show for the next while with similar economic challenges I presume?

Bigmac1euro

Dylan94 wrote: »

From my experience yes. All of my friends are around the house buying age now and a good few have recently bought a new build in Dublin. The soonest person to move in was 6 months after purchase.
Where the housing estate is now for one of them was simply a field a year ago when they bought and are due to get keys soon.

I understand this. But that’s not cash up front houses paid for before being built.
Developers aren’t sitting cash positive before throwing estates up. I don’t believe that for a second.
If it’s the case that the dreaded investors are buying the property with cash up front makes no sense. Sensible investors aren’t going to buy the houses up front at the peek of a cycle.

Separately anyone that has a security deposit down (your friends for example) doesn’t mean they have to go through with the property sale which brings me back to, developers aren’t waiting for security deposits before building as it doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. There is obviously a demand but the original post holds no truth which was agreed by numerous posters.
Maybe I’m missing something though.

Dylan94

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Separately anyone that has a security deposit down (your friends for example) doesn’t mean they have to go through with the property sale

Thats true for security deposits, but the security deposit is usually only good for a certain amount of time. Most require you to pay a full nonrefundable deposit and sign contracts within the month (or else they don't include certain things).

A lot of the new builds also won't allow the subject to loan clause in the contract, which means they do have to go through with the sale.

But yes you are right they don't get the other 90% of the payment until the house is complete.

awec

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

I understand this. But that’s not cash up front houses paid for before being built.
Developers aren’t sitting cash positive before throwing estates up. I don’t believe that for a second.
If it’s the case that the dreaded investors are buying the property with cash up front makes no sense. Sensible investors aren’t going to buy the houses up front at the peek of a cycle.

Separately anyone that has a security deposit down (your friends for example) doesn’t mean they have to go through with the property sale which brings me back to, developers aren’t waiting for security deposits before building as it doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. There is obviously a demand but the original post holds no truth which was agreed by numerous posters.
Maybe I’m missing something though.

Of course houses aren’t paid in full before being built, that wasn’t the point.

Non refundable deposits are paid and contracts are signed though. Developers are generally not left trying to sell completed houses, the houses are sold long before their built.

They aren’t deliberately waiting for the contract before committing to build, but market forces in recent years have meant that this is what has happened by default most of the time.

hometruths

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

I understand this. But that’s not cash up front houses paid for before being built.
Developers aren’t sitting cash positive before throwing estates up. I don’t believe that for a second.
If it’s the case that the dreaded investors are buying the property with cash up front makes no sense. Sensible investors aren’t going to buy the houses up front at the peek of a cycle.

Separately anyone that has a security deposit down (your friends for example) doesn’t mean they have to go through with the property sale which brings me back to, developers aren’t waiting for security deposits before building as it doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. There is obviously a demand but the original post holds no truth which was agreed by numerous posters.
Maybe I’m missing something though.

This is true. Friends of mine have just pulled out of a purchase in a new build estate, and whilst I am not privy to the detail, I would be amazed if they did so forfeiting a meaningful deposit.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

This is true. Friends of mine have just pulled out of a purchase in a new build estate, and whilst I am not privy to the detail, I would be amazed if they did so forfeiting a meaningful deposit.

Depends on the stage of proceedings, the contract and the developer themselves.

If it becomes a widespread occurrence in the scenario of a market collapse then developers will certainly start enforcing the terms of contracts, including forfeiture of deposits where applicable.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Depends on the stage of proceedings, the contract and the developer themselves.

If it becomes a widespread occurrence in the scenario of a market collapse then developers will certainly start enforcing the terms of contracts, including forfeiture of deposits where applicable.

I suspect they might have had an out as the house was delayed, it was supposed to have been completed by Christmas 2019.

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

Where will there be demand though? Whole world will be a ****show for the next while with similar economic challenges I presume?

That is probably true, question is whether the ones who are not from here decide to leave.

stinger31

ah you must be kidding me, it actually looks like a halting site type build. no offence to anyone that lives on the road. I'm sure the area is lovely just the building

https://touch.daft.ie/for-sale/bungalow-10-burnaby-manor-greystones-co-wicklow/1504675

mcbert

stinger31 wrote: »

ah you must be kidding me, it actually looks like a halting site type build. no offence to anyone that lives on the road. I'm sure the area is lovely just the building

Which one? they were pages/hours ago. Refresh your page...

Pivot Eoin

jrosen wrote: »

Nope they waited it out, the ones that I knew of anyway. The houses sat vacant for almost 7 years before they went back to market again. I worked for an engineer at the time. So both personally at through work I saw this happen.
Much like home owners, if people dont need to move they wont.

No one is going to take less for a property if they dont need too.

Builders are also playing the long game this time round, often builder smaller phases before moving to the next. Leaving them less financially exposed.

It really depends. Maturing Families (With kids entering their teens) could easily be looking to upsize from say 3 beds to a big 4 bed, and with a market drop of say 15%, the gap in prices also drops by 15% so it makes it an excellent time to buy and open up a 3 bed onto the market for a FTB and the seller doesn't care about the drop in valuation.

So many variables.

Pivot Eoin

stinger31 wrote: »

ah you must be kidding me, it actually looks like a halting site type build. no offence to anyone that lives on the road. I'm sure the area is lovely just the building

https://touch.daft.ie/for-sale/bungalow-10-burnaby-manor-greystones-co-wicklow/1504675

That's maybe the worst value home I've seen on the market of late. Shocking

[Deleted User]

stinger31 wrote: »

ah you must be kidding me, it actually looks like a halting site type build. no offence to anyone that lives on the road. I'm sure the area is lovely just the building

https://touch.daft.ie/for-sale/bungalow-10-burnaby-manor-greystones-co-wicklow/1504675

Far too expensive, but as far as the houses go i think they are fine. With the right windows and doors those houses would be nice.

I'd love if more houses like that were built in my location. Detached, not too big etc.

td2008

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

That's maybe the worst value home I've seen on the market of late. Shocking

Surely a mistake :eek: even Dublin doesn't have anything as overpriced that I've seen

greendom

td2008 wrote: »

Surely a mistake :eek: even Dublin doesn't have anything as overpriced that I've seen

75m sq! Has to be a mistake!

Mic 1972

I contacted Estate Agencies to inquire about properties on sale and they haven't even replied to my emails, left voice mails and got no call back
Sure they are not helping the market like this

Joe_Bloggsy

Ulster Bank in the north has already increased the deposit required for 1st time buyers from 5% just over a month ago to 20% now.

This has effectively put me out of the picture as a buyer for the next while even with a steady job. I have yet to check with other providers but already shows to me credit will be hard to come by.

Villa05

Talks of a referendum on a cap on land prices in government formation talks

Game changer if true

darlett

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I contacted Estate Agencies to inquire about properties on sale and they haven't even replied to my emails, left voice mails and got no call back
Sure they are not helping the market like this

Without wanting to be Captain Obvious, but are you sure they just arent shut, or at least receptionist off duty as non essential workers?

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Talks of a referendum on a cap on land prices in government formation talks

Game changer if true

Something definitely has to be done to address land prices but I would like to understand how that would work. Would it not put a lot of people into negative equity? They purchased houses in estates where x was paid for the land it is built on. Prices of land factors into price etc.....

Marius34

Joe_Bloggsy wrote: »

Ulster Bank in the north has already increased the deposit required for 1st time buyers from 5% just over a month ago to 20% now.

This has effectively put me out of the picture as a buyer for the next while even with a steady job. I have yet to check with other providers but already shows to me credit will be hard to come by.

I believe you talking about North Ireland.
I read Bank of England slashed Interest rates from 0.75% to 0.1%, causing Bank to focus on big number of Re-Mortgage, in the time of uncertainty of Coronavirus.
Many banks currently don't deal with new higher LTV clients/products at the moment. I'll say try again in a month or 2.

stinger31

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-valuations-are-being-reduced-by-10pc-during-the-mortgage-process-due-to-covid-19-according-to-brokers-39136972.html

restrictions havent even been lifted yet and its -10% this will be huge

Mic 1972

darlett wrote: »

Without wanting to be Captain Obvious, but are you sure they just arent shut, or at least receptionist off duty as non essential workers?

I'm aware of that but they would at least work from home?

New properties have gone up on MyHome so someone must be working

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Something definitely has to be done to address land prices but I would like to understand how that would work. Would it not put a lot of people into negative equity? They purchased houses in estates where x was paid for the land it is built on. Prices of land factors into price etc.....

Yes indeed, more detail needed, as a simple cap would just transfer profit from land owner to developer.

Interestingly enough, in looking for the story which is behind a pay wall on the Sunday business Post. Labour had proposed something similar in 2003. Had they been in a position to implement it, this country would have been saved alot of pain

There was also a proposal doing the rounds after the last crash.
Tax newly rezoned land at 80% on the value that would be twice the agricultural value of the land.

Now given our history of political cronyism, tribunals, brown envolopes, runaway House prices, bank bailouts and homelessness. This would be a proposal that would go along way to solving all those issues.

Fairest also as the jump in value from rezoning is value added by the economy and the people within that economy

Hubertj

stinger31 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-valuations-are-being-reduced-by-10pc-during-the-mortgage-process-due-to-covid-19-according-to-brokers-39136972.html

restrictions havent even been lifted yet and its -10% this will be huge

Sounds prudent by banks given the uncertainty in the economy. Don’t get too excited and wee yourself.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Yes indeed, more detail needed, as a simple cap would just transfer profit from land owner to developer.

Interestingly enough, in looking for the story which is behind a pay wall on the Sunday business Post. Labour had proposed something similar in 2003. Had they been in a position to implement it, this country would have been saved alot of pain

There was also a proposal doing the rounds after the last crash.
Tax newly rezoned land at 80% on the value that would be twice the agricultural value of the land.

Now given our history of political cronyism, tribunals, brown envolopes, runaway House prices, bank bailouts and homelessness. This would be a proposal that would go along way to solving all those issues.

Fairest also as the jump in value from rezoning is value added by the economy and the people within that economy

Devil will be in the detail to ensure it works and is fair to all people. It can’t just be done to pander to the lefty losers. Also how many people will vote for this in a referendum if it permanently impacts the value of their own house?

rosmoke

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm aware of that but they would at least work from home?

New properties have gone up on MyHome so someone must be working

What would be the point to work from home if viewings are not happening?

stinger31

Hubertj wrote: »

Sounds prudent by banks given the uncertainty in the economy. Don’t get too excited and wee yourself.

hahaha even you would have to agree that a big drop looks ominous