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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Hubertj

Augeo wrote: »

Folk were of the view demand wouldn't fall as those effected weren't house buyer types etc etc. Poorly paid retail workers....

I thought that people were arguing that demand will fall and prices with it but because there is such a shortage of units this will reduce the severity of the reductions?

Then someone posted link to CSPO report about there being 200k empty houses and that it is all a lie an there is no shortage of units. Then others poohed on the CSO report?

My question is what does a “significant” mean in terms of a drop in prices? Is 15% significant? How long did it take for prices to increase 15%? 2 or 3 years?

hometruths

alan_mur wrote: »

Unfortunately there was no price drops. DNG wiped out the history on these properties so you can't see what date they were first listed. If you want to see, do a search on twitter for the property, you should find the starting price and when they were first listed.

I got a flood of daft alerts this week so googled address of one at random:

1 Ormonde Terrace, Dalkey - new listing on 16/04/2020 - £699,950
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/dalkey/1-ormond-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dublin-2475503/

First result in google links to page on daft saying "1 Ormond Terrace, Sorrento Road, Dalkey, South Co. Dublin. This property has been either sold or withdrawn from Daft.ie, here are some similar properties in the area."

Google cache of that page "as it appeared on 12 Apr 2020 06:24:51 GMT" has the house listed as sale agreed with an asking price of £724,950, page indicates house went sale agreed in January. http://tiny.cc/nwv9mz

These mass relistings may well be masking sale agreeds falling through as well as price drops.

JP100

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Mate are you just going to continue starting arguments with people.
You make some good points but it’s drowned out with the absolute nonsense. Jog on.

Don't engage in the very thing you accuse others of. Now do jog on, ta very much.

[Deleted User]

Folk were of the view demand wouldn't fall as those effected weren't house buyer types etc etc. Poorly paid retail workers....

awec

Augeo wrote: »

Folk have suggested that as demand won't fall prices won't fall.
That was a few weeks ago but the writing was on the wall then also.

But demand will fall? The quotes that Reversal posted clearly call out that demand will fall. Of course if demand didn't fall at all prices wouldn't fall, that would be nonsensical as it would just be a continuation of the market as it is today.

The big disagreements on here have been mainly around the 30/40/50% drop that some are saying you are definitely going to see this time next year, as some feel the lack of supply is going to result in a higher floor being hit in prices.

There has also been disagreement about who benefits from such a fall. Some have suggested that the economy is going to totally collapse, and it's going to affect everything except for people's ability to buy houses, so if you wait you'll pick up a bargain. Others have pointed out it doesn't work like this, people will wait and find that even if their own circumstances remain unchanged, they can no longer get credit. As Reversal's previously linked articles pointed out, in the scenario of price collapses the big winners will be people who don't need to borrow from banks and investment/vulture funds.

But I don't think anyone has suggested that prices cannot go down, full stop.

Villa05

eagle eye wrote:

Is there any good place the read up on projections for the rest of 2020 as regards what way house prices will go? I really need some good advice on the matter urgently. Alternatively who would you ask? Auctioneer, accountant or somebody to n the financial industry?

Hard to get anyone that is independent, as mentioned Ronan. Lyons does give a balanced view on it in my opinion

eagle eye wrote:

Because I'd suspect the vulture funds would be in before it got that far.

Since 2012 to quiet recently the breakdown of sales has been a 50/50 split in residential property sales between
A cash buyers
B mortgage backed purchases

It is a popular argument on here that only vulture funds and cash buyers benefit in a recession.

Facts and figures point to a different reality of course

[Deleted User]

awec wrote: »

Really? I don’t think I’ve seen anyone on here suggest prices can’t fall or come down?

Are you confusing people having disagreements on what the impact will be if/when prices fall?

Folk have suggested that as demand won't fall prices won't fall.
That was a few weeks ago but the writing was on the wall then also.

Bigmac1euro

alan_mur wrote: »

Unfortunately there was no price drops. DNG wiped out the history on these properties so you can't see what date they were first listed. If you want to see, do a search on twitter for the property, you should find the starting price and when they were first listed.

Yeah I always thought that’s why they re-listed them.
I must try that twitter trick you mention.

alan_mur

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Starting to see signs of prices dropping myself.

Also came across this today on Instagram. Thought I’d throw it on imgur so I could upload it here.
https://imgur.com/a/NGEL2ca

Unfortunately there was no price drops. DNG wiped out the history on these properties so you can't see what date they were first listed. If you want to see, do a search on twitter for the property, you should find the starting price and when they were first listed.

Bigmac1euro

JP100 wrote: »

You presumed that you were the only person who knows what goes on in a company. You only know what goes on in the example you gave and I know what goes on in the example I gave. End off and anything after that is you just being silly.

Mate are you just going to continue starting arguments with people.
You make some good points but it’s drowned out with the absolute nonsense. Jog on.

Bigmac1euro

Hubertj wrote: »

So is there evidence the prices have been reduced or is it just some punter hoping he can afford a gaff some day? I never used daft - is there a way to filter by price reduction?

As soon as I seen a 3 bed going in a pretty sought after area for 295 though requiring some work it did confirm for me that prices are falling and this person in particular wants to get rid quick before the big drops.
Cash buyer may snap it up.
Also a number of properties are no longer sale agreed in my saved ads.

Not sure about the daft filtering as I use the mobile app mostly which has its limitations.

awec

Augeo wrote: »

Except some experts on here.

Really? I don’t think I’ve seen anyone on here suggest prices can’t fall or come down?

Are you confusing people having disagreements on what the impact will be if/when prices fall?

[Deleted User]

Reversal wrote: »

.....

All the expert opinions are pointing one direction.

Except some experts on here.

eagle eye

Reversal wrote:

Youâ€™ll see a wide range of opinions here. However these are the expert opinions that have appeared in the last while.

Thank you so much for posting that.

Reversal

eagle eye wrote: »

Is there any good place the read up on projections for the rest of 2020 as regards what way house prices will go?
I really need some good advice on the matter urgently.
Alternatively who would you ask? Auctioneer, accountant or somebody to n the financial industry?

You’ll see a wide range of opinions here. However these are the expert opinions that have appeared in the last while.

Ronan Lyons;

“These extraordinary real economic consequences will, of course, translate into housing market effects. COVID-19 represents an extraordinary shock to housing demand and we should expect to see significant falls in housing prices”

“Orla Hegarty, from the School of Architecture in UCD, saids there is less money and less confidence in the market so inevitably prices will drop.”

“Meanwhile, lecturer in Housing at the Technological University Dublin and Property Expert Lorcan Sirr said many people will be rethinking their plans to move and to sell in light of future unemployment vulnerability.

He also said banks will be more cautious about who they give mortgages to. ”

All the expert opinions are pointing one direction.

masculinist

eagle eye wrote: »

Alternatively who would you ask? Auctioneer, accountant or somebody to n the financial industry?

If you remember the last boom and bust you might remember that vested interests never give a straight answer. That's "talking down the economy".
Propaganda terms creep in. Words like "cancel" become "suspend" and so on .

eagle eye

OttoPilot wrote:

Why does 50% sound ridiculous? If investors flee and banks aren't lending, cash buyers will clean up.

Because I'd suspect the vulture funds would be in before it got that far.

beauf

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

If you have bought a new build in the last 6 / 12 months.

Welcome to 2007 , your in massive negative equity and your stuck there for 10 years at least.

Why would you buy a place if you were planning to only live in a few years?

If it's too get on the "ladder" or invest you've pretty much missed the bus by a couple of years.

If you are buying some where to live. Then a lot of this aren't the most important issues.

lawred2

eagle eye wrote: »

Is this meant to be a joke because it doesn't appear that way and the 50% suggestion sounds ludicrous nevermind the 185.

Urm....

OttoPilot

eagle eye wrote: »

Is this meant to be a joke because it doesn't appear that way and the 50% suggestion sounds ludicrous nevermind the 185.

Why does 50% sound ridiculous? If investors flee and banks aren't lending, cash buyers will clean up.

Hubertj

eagle eye wrote: »

Is this meant to be a joke because it doesn't appear that way and the 50% suggestion sounds ludicrous nevermind the 185.

That’s my point. It seems to early to tell how far prices will drop and when it will level out.

listermint

eagle eye wrote: »

Is there any good place the read up on projections for the rest of 2020 as regards what way house prices will go?
I really need some good advice on the matter urgently.
Alternatively who would you ask? Auctioneer, accountant or somebody to n the financial industry?

There is no such thing as an oracle, Anyone that tells you otherwise is just spouting opinion.

Unless you are being thrown out of your house or your back is up against the wall in relation to drawdown then best practiced advise is to wait until at least end of Q3 to see which way the wind is going.

There is no one that can give you accurate advise no one if there was they wouldnt be giving it out theyd be making money for themselves and alot of it.

James 007

Deleted User wrote: »

still a lot nicer, more features than the house in Greystones for €600K. But I wouldnt buy either, you need a garden if you're spending that kind of money

Correct, without me saying it you knew straight away what I was referring to. Its a rental property only. Its not a family house at all. I suppose I wasn't trying to compare Dublin vs outside Dublin, but who would buy either of those properties in this climate. The owners should be thankful if they get half the value of the current marked prices.

eagle eye

Hubertj wrote:

Just ding by opinions on here price reductions will range between 5% and over 50%. Iâ€™m projecting a 185% reduction by end of business next Friday. People will be paying you to take their house of them.

Is this meant to be a joke because it doesn't appear that way and the 50% suggestion sounds ludicrous nevermind the 185.

Hubertj

eagle eye wrote: »

Is there any good place the read up on projections for the rest of 2020 as regards what way house prices will go?
I really need some good advice on the matter urgently.
Alternatively who would you ask? Auctioneer, accountant or somebody to n the financial industry?

Just ding by opinions on here price reductions will range between 5% and over 50%. I’m projecting a 185% reduction by end of business next Friday. People will be paying you to take their house of them.

eagle eye

Is there any good place the read up on projections for the rest of 2020 as regards what way house prices will go?
I really need some good advice on the matter urgently.
Alternatively who would you ask? Auctioneer, accountant or somebody to n the financial industry?

Hubertj

Reversal wrote: »

Ok so CSO figures out for Feb 2020. The early year surge that was rumored on here hasn’t materialised. As Ronan Lyons recently reported, every year has seen an early year bump due to a reset of LTI exemptions. 2020 has seen the weakest such bump since the CB rules have been introduced.

Dublin down 0.1% YOY, that includes prices rises in cheaper areas and falls in South Dublin canceling each other out. The peak of this cycle in Dublin was back in October 2018, Dublin as a whole down 3% since then.

So that’s where we were pre COVID and pre recession. Let’s see where this goes.

I don’t understand this sentence from the report (first time i ever looked it it though)
“In Dublin, residential property prices decreased by 0.1% in the year to February - house prices saw no change and apartments increased by 0.8%.”
If house prices were flat and apartments increased 0.8% how do prices drop 0.1% overall?

JP100

Cyrus wrote: »

I said you don’t work there ,And you have just confirmed it. My presumption was entirely correct.

You presumed that you were the only person who knows what goes on in a company. You only know what goes on in the example you gave and I know what goes on in the example I gave. End off and anything after that is you just being silly.

Reversal

Ok so CSO figures out for Feb 2020. The early year surge that was rumored on here hasn’t materialised. As Ronan Lyons recently reported, every year has seen an early year bump due to a reset of LTI exemptions. 2020 has seen the weakest such bump since the CB rules have been introduced.

Dublin down 0.1% YOY, that includes prices rises in cheaper areas and falls in South Dublin canceling each other out. The peak of this cycle in Dublin was back in October 2018, Dublin as a whole down 3% since then.

6034073

So that’s where we were pre COVID and pre recession. Let’s see where this goes.

Hubertj

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Starting to see signs of prices dropping myself.

Also came across this today on Instagram. Thought I’d throw it on imgur so I could upload it here.
https://imgur.com/a/NGEL2ca

So is there evidence the prices have been reduced or is it just some punter hoping he can afford a gaff some day? I never used daft - is there a way to filter by price reduction?