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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Dylan94

Prices continued to rise in the year to February with Dublin prices staying largely the same. Tgis would be the last pre covid report if I'm not wrong.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-prices-up-1-but-marginal-decline-in-dublin-1.4231446

JP100

Cyrus wrote: »

its far more likely that self driving cars will have the change on the property market you expect to see than any mass movement to work from home.

humans are a social species, working from home suits a minority only.

That's real head in the sand stuff. It's not an either or approach, you can work from home and still have the human interaction. Lots of companies do it already whereby staff work outside of the office 1 or 2 days per week. Expect to see more and more companies incorporate the latter and more and more employees expecting it and demanding it.

Business fine margins also won't care about human interaction. This pandemic is proving for a significant number of businesses that wfh is feasible while maintaining productivity. Money talks, bulksh1t walks, that's what ultimately dictates businesses' fine margins.

Cyrus

JP100 wrote: »

"All public sector employers will have to have 20% of staff working remotely or from home by 2021. Incentives will be provided to private sector employers to do likewise under the FF/FG policy plan" @rtenews

— Mícheál Lehane (@MichealLehane) April 15, 2020

While no doubt some dinosaur bosses and management will no doubt still try to find ways to rail against the concept of working from home, I think the shift towards wfh is now inexorable. I think that a lot of 3rd level colleges will also go down the route of remote learning where at all feasible sooner rather than later. Take the example of Hibernia College, their courses are predominantly ran online with quite regular workshops then scheduled to make up for any deficit in the need for person to person interaction. It's a very low cost business model set up perfectly to maximise their profits. A no brainer really from a business point of view.

The genie is out of the bottle now in terms of remote working, teaching and learning and what would have been commonplace in Ireland in 20 or 30 years time anyways will now become commonplace in Ireland within the next 5 to 10 years. The effect that such changes will have on the property market will be quite telling.

its far more likely that self driving cars will have the change on the property market you expect to see than any mass movement to work from home.

humans are a social species, working from home suits a minority only.

Villa05

Claw Hammer wrote:

Approval in Principle is one thing, getting a drawdown is quite another. The banks have no problem giving Approval in Principle as it helps their publicity by announcing that particular amount has been approved for mortgage lending. The reality is that when the property has been secured, deposits paid the bank suddenly pull all sorts of stunts to avoid actually lending the money.

This was practiced in the last crash and was visible in the approvals v drawdowns figures. One could argue that this was practiced to allow people to bid up property prices so that cash buyers had false competition for properties thereby increasing the price.

I hear Karl deeter of Irish mortgage brokers claiming that Banks were holding up mortgages at drawdown stage where the applicant was in receipt of covid_19 payment/subsidy in their wages

JP100

"All public sector employers will have to have 20% of staff working remotely or from home by 2021. Incentives will be provided to private sector employers to do likewise under the FF/FG policy plan" @rtenews

— Mícheál Lehane (@MichealLehane) April 15, 2020

While no doubt some dinosaur bosses and management will no doubt still try to find ways to rail against the concept of working from home, I think the shift towards wfh is now inexorable. I think that a lot of 3rd level colleges will also go down the route of remote learning where at all feasible sooner rather than later. Take the example of Hibernia College, their courses are predominantly ran online with quite regular workshops then scheduled to make up for any deficit in the need for person to person interaction. It's a very low cost business model set up perfectly to maximise their profits. A no brainer really from a business point of view.

The genie is out of the bottle now in terms of remote working, teaching and learning and what would have been commonplace in Ireland in 20 or 30 years time anyways will now become commonplace in Ireland within the next 5 to 10 years. The effect that such changes will have on the property market will be quite telling.

stinger31

Has anyone tried using the banks mortgage calculator recently? They are saying something like they are unable to offer me a borrowing quote..... or else another one
is offering really small amounts. Nowhere near the 3.5 times amount

Is this the start of it all falling apart?

Cyrus

Graham wrote: »

Interesting, any source to back that up?

i'm not normally one for anecdotes but i have heard of this happening, something to do with a land registry offices thats closed, and banks are using this as a reason to prevent drawdown.

Graham

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The reality is that when the property has been secured, deposits paid the bank suddenly pull all sorts of stunts to avoid actually lending the money.

Interesting, any source to back that up?

Claw Hammer

Reps4jesus wrote: »

Got my mortgage approval yesterday with an exemption and no fuss at all. im in a relatively covid-proof job and have a big enough deposit saved but would have expected a bit more stress regarding the exemption in the current climate

Approval in Principle is one thing, getting a drawdown is quite another. The banks have no problem giving Approval in Principle as it helps their publicity by announcing that particular amount has been approved for mortgage lending. The reality is that when the property has been secured, deposits paid the bank suddenly pull all sorts of stunts to avoid actually lending the money.

Pivot Eoin

Reps4jesus wrote: »

Got my mortgage approval yesterday with an exemption and no fuss at all. im in a relatively covid-proof job and have a big enough deposit saved but would have expected a bit more stress regarding the exemption in the current climate

I'm in the same boat but only submitting atm. Multiple Brokers gave me same impression. With certain lenders the exemptions are there for the right people who can obviously show the capacity to make repayments at a stressed level.

Reps4jesus

Got my mortgage approval yesterday with an exemption and no fuss at all. im in a relatively covid-proof job and have a big enough deposit saved but would have expected a bit more stress regarding the exemption in the current climate

JimmyVik

<SNIP>

Graham

Mod Note

folks, please take the debate about public service pay & conditions to the appropriate forum.

[Deleted User]

Browney7 wrote: »

In addition to this, the PS worker will pay their scheme contribution, for a class A prsi payer (post 1995) this is 3.5% of net pensionable remuneration which in your example is 50 grand less 12700*2 = 25,000. So let's call this 1.75%. there is also a contribution of 1.5% on total salary. So, we're now up to 7.25% of the conductor's range

Thanks for proving my point.

I calculate the contribution to be 6.2% for the occupational element of their pension btw, you've used an incorrect amount for the annual OAP.

A far cry from the double digit pct contributions we are led to believe.

Browney7

salonfire wrote: »

That's an outrageous lie!

Another outrageous lie!

The PRD does not apply to the first €32000 euro. Someone on €50000 pays about 3-4% for a guaranteed, index-linked, defined benefit pension
+ a lumpsum.

If you're going to accuse people of telling "Outrageous lies" you'd be well advised to do some fact checking.

That index linked DB pension would be 25 grand after 40 years service which includes the contributory state pension of c. 12700 which is paid for via PRSI (no different to the average private sector worker and plenty private sector workers will get this COAP pension despite paying in far less in € terms due to earning a lower salary). Let's call this 4% of income.

In addition to this, the PS worker will pay their scheme contribution, for a class A prsi payer (post 1995) this is 3.5% of net pensionable remuneration which in your example is 50 grand less 12700*2 = 25,000. So let's call this 1.75%. there is also a contribution of 1.5% on total salary. So, we're now up to 7.25% of the conductor's range.

Add to this, we need to factor in Spouse's and Children's contribution which pays half of the pension to the spouse if the pensioner predeceases their spouse - another 1.5%.

Now, as you rightly point out, PRD or as it's now known Additional Superannuation Contribution of 10% on the 25500 above 34500 is payable, so for your example, 15500/50000 * 10% = 3.1% of salary.

So for their total retirement package of lump sum of 1.5 times salary and 25k per annum pension (inclusive of 12700 COAP), the worker pays 11.65% of salary. What the employer contribution is is anyone's guess because the pensions are paid from current expenditure so the actual promise the worker is paying for is nothing more than a gift of a government of the day when they retire.

If you strip out the COAP, they pay 7.65% of their 50k salary for a 1.5 times salary retirement lump sum and annual pension of 12300.

This is OT so I won't respond again but just thought I'd point out some facts to you before you light your pitchfork on fire.

skooterblue2

johnfás wrote: »

A lot of those houses just sit there to be honest. In many instances the seller just doesn’t move on. In instances where there is a probate you sometimes see houses sitting there for years because mad families members have “a price in their head” which they want to get but probably never will. I know of multiple houses in my area which are essentially unoccupied or under occupied through rotations of family members.

Wills always bring out the worst in people, never the best. Other stupid ideas are getting a family where they are feuding to agree to sell a house or settle property where there is a bad written will or some other sort of bad blood there.

johnfás

BillyBiggs wrote: »

What do people think will happen with trophy homes on the market? For example the €1,000,000 pad in D4, who’s going to buy it?

A lot of those houses just sit there to be honest. In many instances the seller just doesn’t move on. In instances where there is a probate you sometimes see houses sitting there for years because mad families members have “a price in their head” which they want to get but probably never will. I know of multiple houses in my area which are essentially unoccupied or under occupied through rotations of family members.

johnfás

salonfire wrote: »

Nurses pay also gets bumped up by allowances for working evenings, nights, Sundays and Holidays as well as allowances for working in special departments.

This is quite true. There is an ongoing union dispute in the HSE where the nursing unions wants nurses regraded so that they are on comparable pay scales to therapists such as physio, OT and SLT. However, the HSE was only willing to budge if the nurses gave up their allowances which they were unwilling to do because the reality was they were earning more than those therapists anyway.

Same issues arise in the Guards where the unions will report the starting salary of a Garda as being €29,000... whereas the truth is there isn’t a Guard in the country earning less than €40,000.

skooterblue2

BillyBiggs wrote: »

What do people think will happen with trophy homes on the market? For example the €1,000,000 pad in D4, who’s going to buy it?

Same as last time there was a recession, Cash buyers buy it for €600 k, or less. A distant relative was IT contracting for IBM just before the last recession. He was made unemployed, sold his house immediately. Everyone laughing at him that he would never be able to afford to get back in to Dublin 4 again.
He rented an ordinary house, played golf every day for 2 years and did his MBA part time. Then he got back in with the Bank IT contracting on a bigger salary and has a bigger house than before in D4 at a cheaper price.

[Deleted User]

The_Conductor wrote: »

The HSE *are* the bulk of the public sector in Ireland- this includes all the nurses etc who we're all cheering on at the moment. The salary for a staff nurse after 12 years- is 45k (salary scales here, compliments of the INMO). This is roughly 2k below the mean salary of full time employees in Ireland (link here- factchecked by the Journal)

That's an outrageous lie!

Nurses pay also gets bumped up by allowances for working evenings, nights, Sundays and Holidays as well as allowances for working in special departments.

The_Conductor wrote: »

The standard pension for the public sector is now 1/2 average career earnings reduced by whatever the COAP rate is, earned at the rate of 2/80s per annum over a 40 year period, plus a lumpsum of 1.5 times final salay, paid for in part by pension deductions, in addition of PRSI etc, of between 7 and 15%

Another outrageous lie!

The PRD does not apply to the first €32000 euro. Someone on €50000 pays about 3-4% for a guaranteed, index-linked, defined benefit pension
+ a lumpsum.

The_Conductor wrote: »

The public sector is by no means as lucrative as people imagine it to be

So why are thousands and thousands applying to do clerical work in it then?

The_Conductor wrote: »

The average size of the public sector in the OECD is 20.9% of the workforce. In Ireland its 18.1% (which coincidentally is the same percentage as in both Portugal and Spain). In the UK its 20.6%. In a country like France its as high as 25.8%

Considering Ireland does not have a military, Navy or Air Force worth taking about, out percentage is clearly too high now I see it compared to other countries.

James 007

BillyBiggs wrote: »

What do people think will happen with trophy homes on the market? For example the €1,000,000 pad in D4, who’s going to buy it?

BillyBiggs:P

BillyBiggs

What do people think will happen with trophy homes on the market? For example the €1,000,000 pad in D4, who’s going to buy it?

Marius34

Agree, and in overall, this census in itself it's about the status of particular date: 24 April 2016. Which can not be used to define how many vacant "liveable " properties there are in general, but its results rather used to plan infrastructure, public transport, healthcare, education, services, facilities.

Vacant:
https://www.google.ie/maps/@53.3592608,-6.2473215,3a,75y,270.67h,98.78t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sgvC9JGdCwHsGiRp1ILA1sQ!2e0!5s20140601T000000!7i13312!8i6656

The_Conductor

Marius34 wrote: »

I would think, if you would checked in the form that you was not at home on 24 April 2016 in the census form, it would be:
"D Unoccupied - residents temporarily absent"
If you don't fill at all for that address it might be: "Unoccupied - vacant"

Temporary CSO enumerators who were handing out the forms reported large numbers of properties vacant- despite being able to see they were occupied. Aka they knocked at the door- but because they looked 'official' (with a clipboard and what not)- the residents took fright and didn't answer the door. In Fingal they reckon they had over 2,000 residents refuse to open their doors to the enumerators, and about 1,400 in DCC areas. Thats 3,400 of the 'vacant' properties in Dublin city and county (ignoring the two other Dublin local authorities altogether).

When the local authorities were informed of all these vacant properties- and went to assess them after the census- with the intention of bringing them back into use, they found them almost entirely occupied- I think there were 118 vacant units in the 3,400 that were checked in Fingal and DCC- and 92 of the 118 belonged to the local authority and were in various stages of being prepared for new tenants anyway.

So- to cut a long story short, the CSO figures as they pertain to 'vacant properties' were fairly rapidly determined to be a load of bollox- and the Minister was forced to climbdown and mention of all the vacant properties mysteriously stopped.

There is a very valid argument to be made for immediate notification of vacant properties to local authorities in the run-up to censuses- and immediate visits by the local authority accommodation officer (whether he or she likes it- often the local authority officers are multitasking to a ridiculous extent- and they may never have undertaken such an exercise).

Villa05

awec wrote:

Maybe, I think they already use the ESB stats to count the number of new houses.

Very crude though
New connections = new units

ELM327

Marius34 wrote: »

I would think, if you would checked in the form that you was not at home on 24 April 2016 in the census form, it would be:
"D Unoccupied - residents temporarily absent"
If you don't fill at all for that address it might be: "Unoccupied - vacant"

Even if they were away for 1 month before and 1 month after the census! How wouild they fill in the form!

Marius34

JimmyVik wrote: »

Is that true that they are classed as empty? Last census my parents parents and my brother went to Australia for almost 2 months. None of us got census forms. So thats 3 houses that could be marked as empty then. I thought they had a register of where people lived and it would be easy to tally that up with people who were just away.

I would think, if you would checked in the form that you was not at home on 24 April 2016 in the census form, it would be:
"D Unoccupied - residents temporarily absent"
If you don't fill at all for that address it might be: "Unoccupied - vacant"

Graham

Mod Note

IndieRoar111, we expect a reasonable standard of posting here in A & P. Your recent posts are way below it.

Please reevaluate your posting style before posting again.

Off topic posts deleted (twice)!

Marius34

awec wrote: »

I think someone already clarified that the CSO vacant properties stat is nonsense, as it's just a count of the number of properties where no census was returned. One of the Dublin councils did a survey of these and found the vast majority were occupied.

If that is the case then it's also going to include every derelict and dilapidated building with an address in the country.

It's a good point.

But CSO property census is not a bad indicator. It has just very few categories, and if nobody fills in census for various reason on this address, its by default vacant for that particular time.
The biggest problem is the Journalists/Media, creating a false report showing those property as empty, and available to house the people. I would expect this to come from Populists Left Wing leaning Journalist/Media, or someone who looks for attention with its sound articles.
I haven't read article of any mentioned survey, but I know plenty of properties in Dublin, that are in "Transition", ready for demolition, or due to other safety not in living conditions, that are defined as vacant.
I live next to Parkside/New Priory in Balgriffin,Dublin 13. According to CSO 2016, it had one of the highest vacancy rate in Dublin, around ~50%, which was due to the fire safety in apartment building in New Priory, and new Parkside development, where houses had an address, but majority of them were not completed or new owners haven't moved in.
There is no way to measure vacancy, but one of the closest that I would think of is geodirectory.
https://www.geodirectory.ie/knowledge-centre/reports-blogs/geoview-residential-buildings-report-q4-2019

Idbatterim

what way do the germans do it? no doubt its efficient as hell, just mimic what other countries, that are properly run do...