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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Hubertj

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

This is hilarious. Using Google searches (which can easily be recursive and manipulated) as the main basis in your argument that prices will not drop during what will be the biggest recession since the great depression.

Many furloughed positions will not return. America will be at over 30% unemployed and Ireland could hit the late teens/20%. Remember a lot of the jobs will not return.

The mind boggles.

Thanks for you giving me a laugh on this fine morning

well they are better facts than your anecdotal tall stories about husbands friends aunts sisters brothers. Andy you think google analytics is funny?

IndieRoar111

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

I think some people on this thread might be in for a rude awakening once the market resumes after COVId-19. Just to note, I am also looking to buy at some stage in the next 6-9 Months in South Co.Dublin, so there's no bias here.

The ignorance of the basic idea of Supply and Demand is laughable. At the end of the day it is the only factor that really truly affects Property Prices. We know supply is low in terms of houses going to market.

And it seems interest from First Time Buyers is increasing now even more so! Search terms on Google Trends would seem to back that up:

This is hilarious. Using Google searches (which can easily be recursive and manipulated) as the main basis in your argument that prices will not drop during what will be the biggest recession since the great depression.

Many furloughed positions will not return. America will be at over 30% unemployed and Ireland could hit the late teens/20%. Remember a lot of the jobs will not return.

The mind boggles.

Thanks for you giving me a laugh on this fine morning

Marius34

The_Conductor wrote: »

A magic crystal ball would be nice- however, the facts are that prices, in a Dublin context (but not nationally) were falling (gently) before the crisis hit.
Annecdotally- a significant number of non-nationals who were working in the multinational sector- have left these shores and returned home (presumably to be near family and friends- which is entirely understandable). Who knows what percent prices may fall, or indeed, whether they might continue to do so. Rental prices are falling- as supply is increasing but demand has vanished. Perhaps as some units held by small landlords are vacated- they may ultimately be placed on the market- however, that is down the road.

Lets see what comes of the hybrid magic wishlist cobbled together by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael- it looks like a staggeringly inept spending spree without any indication whatsoever on who is going to pay for it (though of course the hardpressed taxpayer will get hit, come what may, in one manner or another).

We have seriously bumpy roads ahead- its impossible to know what is going to happen- all that is now obvious is that it will not be a return to 'business as usual'.

No, it's not a fact that prices were falling in Pre-Covid. It's only based of one single report of information coming from Daft.ie on asking price report. Sinse that report showed what people would like to see on here, it received very high interest, and taken for granted.
Wait for CSO, I would expect it will report an increase in Dublin for Pre-Covid. Which is Jan,Feb,March transactions. January already showed increase, I would expect the same for Feb & March transactions. April transactions I suspect as a start of decrease phase due to Covid, since people has started to pull out or negotiate price.

IndieRoar111

TheSheriff wrote: »

Pulled out of our sale agreed.......willing to roll the dice and see where we are in a few months.

Wise choice that will pay dividends down the road

Hubertj

Reversal wrote: »

Rock solid evidence of huge demand there so...

The latest DAFT report pointed to supply matching demand just fine in Dublin. Leading to asking prices dropping by ~5% in Dublin in the previous 12 months. Thats pre COVID. If there wasn't the demand there pre COVID to hold prices up, there won't be after.

The under supply in housing is grossly misrepresented in Ireland. Need for social and affordable housing is lumped in to the demand figure for 35k units a year.

35K a year is the rate of family formation. Does anyone genuinely think that even half that figure are entering to market to buy every year, absolutely not. Reaching ~20K completions a year stabalised the market and led to falls in most areas in the last year.

Now demand will be lower again. Prices will continue to fall.

which daft report are you referring to? Decrease in Dublin was 2.6% overall from what i can read here - https://www.daft.ie/report

35k a year rate - is that not for rental and purchase?

The_Conductor

A magic crystal ball would be nice- however, the facts are that prices, in a Dublin context (but not nationally) were falling (gently) before the crisis hit.
Annecdotally- a significant number of non-nationals who were working in the multinational sector- have left these shores and returned home (presumably to be near family and friends- which is entirely understandable). Who knows what percent prices may fall, or indeed, whether they might continue to do so. Rental prices are falling- as supply is increasing but demand has vanished. Perhaps as some units held by small landlords are vacated- they may ultimately be placed on the market- however, that is down the road.

Lets see what comes of the hybrid magic wishlist cobbled together by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael- it looks like a staggeringly inept spending spree without any indication whatsoever on who is going to pay for it (though of course the hardpressed taxpayer will get hit, come what may, in one manner or another).

We have seriously bumpy roads ahead- its impossible to know what is going to happen- all that is now obvious is that it will not be a return to 'business as usual'.

[Deleted User]

An interesting thing to do if you are not looking at a new build is to look at the property price register for the areas you are interested in, then look at how quickly the prices rebounded even with high unemployment and emigration some dipped for 2 to 3-year max and rebounded quickly. In other words, some areas are always going to be less of a risk than others.

Browney7

Reversal wrote: »

Rock solid evidence of huge demand there so...

The latest DAFT report pointed to supply matching demand just fine in Dublin. Leading to asking prices dropping by ~5% in Dublin in the previous 12 months. Thats pre COVID. If there wasn't the demand there pre COVID to hold prices up, there won't be after.

The under supply in housing is grossly misrepresented in Ireland. Need for social and affordable housing is lumped in to the demand figure for 35k units a year.

35K a year is the rate of family formation. Does anyone genuinely think that even half that figure are entering to market to buy every year, absolutely not. Reaching ~20K completions a year stabalised the market and led to falls in most areas in the last year.

Now demand will be lower again. Prices will continue to fall.

Likely the "interest over time" query took a spike as follows:

"Mortgages" - people enquiring about new mortgages, will i still have to pay my mortgage, mortgage freezes etc.

"House prices" - will Covid 19 result in a fall in house prices, what will happen to house prices, etc etc

No doubt some who have kept jobs will be in a more advantageous position when it blows over but there will be plenty who aren't and getting paid for services rendered is going to be tough for self employed and contractors.

Personally expect a 10 to 15% fall over the next 18 months on the basis that prices were flat lining pre Covid let alone banks having a willingness to throw credit around after this situation dissipates whilst they swallow losses in the wider economy.

mcbert

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

I am more so getting at the idea that there may only be a 5% drop in prices as opposed to 15%+ like a lot of people on this thread seem to be expecting or hinting at.

some are expecting 30+% in months...

Pivot Eoin

Reversal wrote: »

Rock solid evidence of huge demand there so...

The latest DAFT report pointed to supply matching demand just fine in Dublin. Leading to asking prices dropping by ~5% in Dublin in the previous 12 months. Thats pre COVID. If there wasn't the demand there pre COVID to hold prices up, there won't be after.

The under supply in housing is grossly misrepresented in Ireland. Need for social and affordable housing is lumped in to the demand figure for 35k units a year.

35K a year is the rate of family formation. Does anyone genuinely think that even half that figure are entering to market to buy every year, absolutely not. Reaching ~20K completions a year stabalised the market and led to falls in most areas in the last year.

Now demand will be lower again. Prices will continue to fall.

Not evidence yet, but data indicative of the fact that a lot of people are viewing the current climate as an opportunity to get into the market, maybe thinking that they might get a lower price. Google searches are always indicative of wider public interest.

However is it not conceivable to think that the extra interest in getting into market will at least hold up the same level of demand pre Covid-19?

The rude awakening I spoke of doesnt necessarily mean prices remaining the same, or increasing. I am more so getting at the idea that there may only be a 5% drop in prices as opposed to 15%+ like a lot of people on this thread seem to be expecting or hinting at.

Bass Reeves

it will be very hard to judge the Irish property market. however we will see a price reduction in the short term. How long and hard it will be will depend on confidence after lockdown. Lots of smaller business's will take 2-3 years to recover. Self employed will be down a minimum of 6-8 weeks earnings this year and maybe more depending on spend after lockdown

The economists expect Ireland's economy to shrink by nearly 10% this year and recover by 7% next year. They expect that next year we will have about 7.5% unemployed after the fall out. However certain sectors will suffer the most mainly tourism, catering and farming. This will definately effect house prices and Construction but for how long.

It is quite possible any new government ( and FF and FG have indicated it) if construction slows they may embark on an ambitious house building programme for social and affordable housing. If that happens house prices may stabilise at the new low but house building costs will still be a factor.

Reversal

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

I think some people on this thread might be in for a rude awakening once the market resumes after COVId-19. Just to note, I am also looking to buy at some stage in the next 6-9 Months in South Co.Dublin, so there's no bias here.

The ignorance of the basic idea of Supply and Demand is laughable. At the end of the day it is the only factor that really truly affects Property Prices. We know supply is low in terms of houses going to market.

And it seems interest from First Time Buyers is increasing now even more so! Search terms on Google Trends would seem to back that up:

Rock solid evidence of huge demand there so...

The latest DAFT report pointed to supply matching demand just fine in Dublin. Leading to asking prices dropping by ~5% in Dublin in the previous 12 months. Thats pre COVID. If there wasn't the demand there pre COVID to hold prices up, there won't be after.

The under supply in housing is grossly misrepresented in Ireland. Need for social and affordable housing is lumped in to the demand figure for 35k units a year.

35K a year is the rate of family formation. Does anyone genuinely think that even half that figure are entering to market to buy every year, absolutely not. Reaching ~20K completions a year stabalised the market and led to falls in most areas in the last year.

Now demand will be lower again. Prices will continue to fall.

lomb

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

I think some people on this thread might be in for a rude awakening once the market resumes after COVId-19. Just to note, I am also looking to buy at some stage in the next 6-9 Months in South Co.Dublin, so there's no bias here.

The ignorance of the basic idea of Supply and Demand is laughable. At the end of the day it is the only factor that really truly affects Property Prices. We know supply is low in terms of houses going to market.

And it seems interest from First Time Buyers is increasing now even more so! Search terms on Google Trends would seem to back that up:

Hey I'm sale agreed and signed contracts so no bias here. There is a supply/ demand imbalance coupled with crazy new build costs and very expensive builders. Prices are not just supply demand but also mainly based on banks credit extension which in turn is based on income and risk. Basically the last part is unpredictable. So if this years income is wiped out or overtime is reduced or people are on the dole then that will carry forward to reduced prices for a few years as they use the last 2-3
People could also be declined mortgages or drawdowns. I myself have opted not to claim the 350 as I'm self employed and if I go on the dole I'm in breach of loan conditions and if they ask could decline drawdown. I have more than 5 years of savings so couldn't care less about covid. But the banks dont operate that way.

Also no doubt confidence is affected which affects the general economy. Some unemployed might not go back which affects state finances and taxation etc

Pivot Eoin

I think some people on this thread might be in for a rude awakening once the market resumes after COVId-19. Just to note, I am also looking to buy at some stage in the next 6-9 Months in South Co.Dublin, so there's no bias here.

The ignorance of the basic idea of Supply and Demand is laughable. At the end of the day it is the only factor that really truly affects Property Prices. We know supply is low in terms of houses going to market.

And it seems interest from First Time Buyers is increasing now even more so! Search terms on Google Trends would seem to back that up:

EVtdHwKXQAAeh21?format=jpg&name=medium

Millem

Bass Reeves wrote: »

No it depends on the College. Some take 4 to complete an arts degree some take only 3. Then 2 years for Masters in Education. Max 6 . Like i Said there is a few that do PP teaching in 4 years mainly in specialist subjects, Home Economics, Wood Technology and construction studies and Engineering Technology. Then there are a few that do PP teaching in 4 years but numbers are limited.

The old B.Ed courses are 5 years now. They used to be 4 but changed to 5 years after the HDip changed to the PME.

Idbatterim

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

True enough, the owners would sell for half that price if it wasn't for the agents. :rolleyes:

I think my point was obvious, or do you think the piss take in churchtown and columbanus are anything other than farcical?

q85dw7osi4lebg

Idbatterim wrote: »

some of these asking prices, I suggest the estate agents move into stand up comedy , probably a better fit! :rolleyes:

True enough, the owners would sell for half that price if it wasn't for the agents. :rolleyes:

Idbatterim

some of these asking prices, I suggest the estate agents move into stand up comedy , probably a better fit! :rolleyes:

Canyon86

FTB here, I was actively looking up until corona hit,

Currently pondering my next move, will probably hang on for a few months, every estate agent in my area is closed only for emergencies till restrictions are lifted

Slow few months ahead down my way

Wompa1

TheSheriff wrote: »

Pulled out of our sale agreed.......willing to roll the dice and see where we are in a few months.

I'd say yee will get a lower price but possibly a less favorable mortgage going off what people have been reporting in other countries.

davedub2015

TheSheriff wrote: »

Pulled out of our sale agreed.......willing to roll the dice and see where we are in a few months.

Did estate agent not offer a reduction ?

TheSheriff

Pulled out of our sale agreed.......willing to roll the dice and see where we are in a few months.

willbur

Just an observation , it is likely that both the Irish and European / world economies will take a very long time to recover from this C 19 , remember house prices where based on the lack of supply this will have change as a result of AirBb coming either for long term rent or being put up for sale , also anyone who had mortgage approval and hasn't already drawn down will be put in a position where the Banks will review it or the person themselves might refuse to take it out as there future capacity to future earnings have been greatly reduced , as a result I can see a series adjustment in the price of houses downwards

Bass Reeves

JJJackal wrote: »

But its not 6? max 5?

No it depends on the College. Some take 4 to complete an arts degree some take only 3. Then 2 years for Masters in Education. Max 6 . Like i Said there is a few that do PP teaching in 4 years mainly in specialist subjects, Home Economics, Wood Technology and construction studies and Engineering Technology. Then there are a few that do PP teaching in 4 years but numbers are limited.

Dylan94

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Most post primary teachers is a 3 or four years art Degree and then you do a masters in Education. There is a few courses that do PP teaching and you qualify in 4 years but these courses are few and far between.

Yeah 4 years to get a BA degree and then two years for the Masters.

JJJackal

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Most post primary teachers is a 3 or four years art Degree and then you do a masters in Education. There is a few courses that do PP teaching and you qualify in 4 years but these courses are few and far between.

But its not 6? max 5?

Bass Reeves

JJJackal wrote: »

I didnt know it took 6 years to become a teacher

Most post primary teachers is a 3 or four years art Degree and then you do a masters in Education. There is a few courses that do PP teaching and you qualify in 4 years but these courses are few and far between.

[Deleted User]

Ellie1988 wrote: »

....... Everyone in my company has been temporarily put on reduced hours and pay until end june (all being 'well' we will go back to normal pay and hours in July). Any thoughts on how will banks look at my reduced income for this period? Especially as I'm the higher earner. I know they check paychecks and accounts etc and not sure this will help our application down the line.

A few weeks ago some banking guy on either TV or newstalk said Banks won't look negatively on folk who are put on covid19 payments etc.

JJJackal

Dylan94 wrote: »

Post primary teachers start on just under €37,000 and are not entitled to any allowances that older teachers and those in other public sector jobs such as teachers and guards are entitled to. And that's only once you get a full time job which usually takes years after you graduate with a BA and a Masters degree. So 6 years in University.

I didnt know it took 6 years to become a teacher

Ellie1988

I posted a similar question a good few weeks ago but thought I'd ask again as my circumstances have changed, as has the covid situation...myself and my partner were hoping to buy in dublin soon and have our deposit. We are now going to hold off a few months until things calm down. Partner is public secure so completely secure job and income. Everyone in my company has been temporarily put on reduced hours and pay until end june (all being 'well' we will go back to normal pay and hours in July). Any thoughts on how will banks look at my reduced income for this period? Especially as I'm the higher earner. I know they check paychecks and accounts etc and not sure this will help our application down the line.