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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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pearcider

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

And the article mentions only the fourth biggest bank in the US is doing this. And it's temporary to "focus on existing customers".

Never mind the banks propaganda. The fact is the most valuable bank in the world is raising lending standards. If you think the other banks are not going to follow them, you’re not paying attention.

lomb

Hubertj wrote: »

and what are your thoughts on "higher end" properties €1M ish new or old builds?

Also why would the REITs / investors flee market if they are still getting good return?

Obviously the 1mill market is a rarified market. E
Very few people make 275k so a lot of it is people with 500k equity or cash+ another 500k mortgage.
I would obviously expect this to collapse due to confidence.
Reits have vastly overpayed for new builds off plan and many units are unlet due to higher rents than older apartments so liquidating and recovering half is better than no return at all.

guyfawkes5

And the article mentions only the fourth biggest bank in the US is doing this. And it's temporary to "focus on existing customers".

Dylan94

pearcider wrote: »

https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/13/700-credit-score-and-20-down-jpmorgan-ups-home-loan-standards/

20% deposit requirements coming soon to a bank near you.

We already have a 20% deposit requirement and that article is about the USA.

pearcider

https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/13/700-credit-score-and-20-down-jpmorgan-ups-home-loan-standards/

20% deposit requirements coming soon to a bank near you.

Donald Trump

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There are a lot of people in nursing homes with dementia who are only going to leave in a box. The house should be sold and the family given their 77% of the proceeds.

You can't seize property dude. Property rights are protected in the constitution.
The person also has to be in the home for more than 3 years before the scheme hits that ceiling.

Forcing the person to sell the house immediately means that there is no incentive not to just sign it over to someone else before entering the home. In which case the new owner may or may not sell it immediately or may sit on it.

enricoh

schmittel wrote: »

62,000 are holiday homes which makes sense. But 95,000 are urban, and 43,000 are apartments. From a rental point of view the majority of this stock are unlikely to be the wrong locations, uninhabitable or not serviced.

On rent reductions, I don't think anyone is suggesting rents are going to halve, but what do you think will happen with Dublin rents over the next 12 months - remain stable, fall or rise? And if rise or fall, what sort of %?

The cso figures are rubbish. Any dwelling that didn't fill in the census is deemed vacant.
Fingal council investigated 70 odd houses from census results with a view to acquiring them for cocial housing - the vast majority were occupied.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/number-of-vacant-homes-may-be-grossly-overstated-1.3220063%3fmode=amp
The study involved physically checking out 76 “empty” homes to discover that 63 of them were in fact fully occupied.

Pivot Eoin

TheSheriff wrote: »

A new type of email today from an EA - providing us with a "market view" of the areas we have previously expressed interest in; advising us of what prices were recently achieved in that area, and prices we can expect to pay for a 3 bed located in X, Y etc.

We've been looking for several months; never received one of these before so new to us.

Nothing to see here. Business as usual.

Screenshot?

Marius34

IMF report got published today.

Main highlights for World and Ireland on https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/coronavirus-imf-expects-worst-global-downturn-since-the-great-depression-1.4228585:

"The coronavirus pandemic has brought the global economy to its knees and is likely to result in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
In its latest world economic outlook report, the Washington-based fund says it expects the global economy to “contract sharply” by 3 per cent in 2020 with the euro zone, the epicentre of the pandemic for the past month, experiencing an even a much sharper 7.5 per cent contraction.

Its outlook for Ireland is slightly better though still grim. It expects the economy to contract by 6.8 per cent this year, less severe than the Central Bank projection for an 8 per cent contraction.
The IMF expects the Irish economy to bounce back strongly next year, expanding by 6.3 per cent, against a euro-zone average of 4.7 per cent.
However, unemployment could prove trickier to ease. The agency says the jobless rate in Ireland will rise to an average of 12 per cent in 2020, up from a low of 4.8 per cent in February, and will stay elevated at almost 8 per cent in 2021."

El Gato De Negocios

Was speaking with a senior mortgage manager in PTSB earlier. He is adamant that there will be a significant drop ie pricing (anywhere from 15% to 30% depending on the usual factors) in the not too distant future. As it stands, all banks have suspended exemptions for new applications but he does think that this will be relaxed later in the year as the exemptions have not been exhausted. He believes a glut of properties will come on stream over the coming months and when restrictions relax around peoples movements as a lot of small landlords will be looking to move their properties on following the covid shock. Alot of the renters will unfortunately be long term unemployed as hospitality and pubs in particular will be the last industries to get fully operational again. He basically said if he was in our position (AIP granted with a healthy deposit and repayment capacity) to keep our powder dry and continue saving as we have been. All anecdotal of course but I found it interesting coming from someone "in the know"

Pivot Eoin

I'd be sceptical enough really to expect any sharp downturn in the market soon. 5-10% depending on area sounds about right. What people maybe haven't factored in is Asking vs Selling Price. In the areas I've been looking, houses had almost always been selling 0-5% above asking. You may see a drop in asking, but an increase in sale price, maybe 10% above asking due to competition.

Been dealing with multiple brokers over the last week and they all said that they've had an influx of people looking to get approved, and to be in a position to strike should the right property pops up.

This could lead to an equally competitive market, with a lot of buyers expecting to be getting a discount, but instead bidding each other up.

Claw Hammer

Donald Trump wrote: »

How would you suggest that it should work? Bear in mind that not everyone going into a nursing home would intend to be going there for good (even if they end up that way). You could have old people who maybe have a fall and nobody to look after them or an unsuitable house for recuperation.

I would say that Fair Deal probably actually hastens the sale of a property on the other end because there is a defined percentage owed on it.

There are a lot of people in nursing homes with dementia who are only going to leave in a box. The house should be sold and the family given their 77% of the proceeds.

Hubertj

lomb wrote: »

The other thing unique to Ireland is that loans are at 3.5 times earnings versus 4.5-5 in the UK. Apart from crappy south Dublin semis and other property for 400-800 which could fall 1/3 (maybe I'm biased as see no value)I can't see standard stuff falling at all or new builds or properties under 400
Apartments could well drop as REITs and investors flee.

and what are your thoughts on "higher end" properties €1M ish new or old builds?

Also why would the REITs / investors flee market if they are still getting good return?

fliball123

Rock77 wrote: »

I agree both are culpable but I believe all main parties said they would build thousands of homes.

So the gov didn’t house the current homeless and want to build more houses.

The ‘looney left’ want to build more houses.

I was just commenting on the obvious bias in the posters reaction.

Ahh ok but sure I am currently listening to newstalk and a voxpop of a reporter asking if people would vote the same way now as they did before and the majority are saying that people would vote the same way and the number 1 reason is the housing crisis..

Rock77

fliball123 wrote: »

Hang on if the truth is that 200k houses are not occupied both are culpable the gov for not housing the current homeless and the lefties for wanting more houses to be built on the tax payers dime

I agree both are culpable but I believe all main parties said they would build thousands of homes.

So the gov didn’t house the current homeless and want to build more houses.

The ‘looney left’ want to build more houses.

I was just commenting on the obvious bias in the posters reaction.

lomb

The other thing unique to Ireland is that loans are at 3.5 times earnings versus 4.5-5 in the UK. Apart from crappy south Dublin semis and other property for 400-800 which could fall 1/3 (maybe I'm biased as see no value)I can't see standard stuff falling at all or new builds or properties under 400
Apartments could well drop as REITs and investors flee.

The_Conductor

TheSheriff wrote: »

A new type of email today from an EA - providing us with a "market view" of the areas we have previously expressed interest in; advising us of what prices were recently achieved in that area, and prices we can expect to pay for a 3 bed located in X, Y etc.

We've been looking for several months; never received one of these before so new to us.

Nothing to see here. Business as usual.

Sounds like an EA putting a bit of effort in- and recognising that contrary to what you're suggesting- it most certainly is not 'business as usual'..........

I'd be staggered if there wasn't a complete freeze in pretty much all large ticket expenditure- consumer goods, accommodation, cars- etc.

It would appear that the chosen method to pay for this mess- will be further rollout of the USC- rather than a hike in headline income tax or a cut in entitlements.

Even if we get to the other side of this- we have a bumpy road ahead..........

JimmyVik

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Even with those roles, if you live in Dublin can you afford to compete against the wages of a person who lives in the west of Ireland?

I would gladly take half my wages to be able to move back to the West

TheSheriff

A new type of email today from an EA - providing us with a "market view" of the areas we have previously expressed interest in; advising us of what prices were recently achieved in that area, and prices we can expect to pay for a 3 bed located in X, Y etc.

We've been looking for several months; never received one of these before so new to us.

Nothing to see here. Business as usual.

Cuddlesworth

smurgen wrote: »

In my line of work there are tax substance and legal considerations that require fulfilment.legally these jobs cannot be outsourced.

Even with those roles, if you live in Dublin can you afford to compete against the wages of a person who lives in the west of Ireland?

The_Conductor

Zenify wrote: »

I'm seeing a couple of houses come back on market but not as much as I was expecting. I also saw a house that I was interested in go sale agreeded a little over a week ago. I rang the estate agent and they said seller wants to move fast and accepted first bid (I dont blame them).

Seeing this with both residential and commercial units. I live on Main Street Lucan village- there are at least 4 vacant commercial units and if you include the apartments and small developments immediately off main street- I'd hazard there are over 20 empty at the moment (though perhaps 5 or 6 of the empty units are related to the Fair Deal Scheme- and some of them have been vacant for 12-24 months).

Its going to take a long time to get over this mess.

JimmyVik

PommieBast wrote: »

Not sure about specific properties I looked at previously, but have seen a few suspicious things such as multiple apartments in the same blocks now being listed.

They always did that.
They dont bother taking ads down and roll it over even if that particualar one is gone. They then tell you its not that one but another thats available. Suppose it saves them a few € in advertising, or they are just lazy.

When I was looking a few years ago - it happened many times that they didnt bother taking a listing down and when i inquired about the apartment they said that one was gone but they just left the ad for that up as they have a different apartment somewhere else i could look at if i was interested.

JimmyVik

smurgen wrote: »

In my line of work there are tax substance and legal considerations that require fulfilment.legally these jobs cannot be outsourced.

I know of one family where the mother is gone to hospital and not expected to come home for the rest of the year abyway. They have been there over 6 months now and need hospital care, but are hopeful of getting home some day. The family cant clean up and rent out the house in the meantime for an income because they might never get it back.

Queasy Tadpole

OwlsZat wrote: »

I'm seeing lots of houses I was looking at over the last 6 months come back onto the market. Sales falling through I'd guess. Anyone else seeing the same?

Yep, same. Also hardly any new listings. Also all of the houses I was interested none have sold in the last few weeks. Yet no price changes either.

PommieBast

OwlsZat wrote: »

I'm seeing lots of houses I was looking at over the last 6 months come back onto the market. Sales falling through I'd guess. Anyone else seeing the same?

Not sure about specific properties I looked at previously, but have seen a few suspicious things such as multiple apartments in the same blocks now being listed.

JimmyVik

beauf wrote: »

Scientific unlikely.

What you should be comparing is the productivity of people in the office (zilch) and those at home during the pandemic. Not comparing normal productivity with that during the pandemic. Though either is a bit pointless.

I'd say one outcome will be people will look at new properties, and their existing accommodate to see how it can accommodate a home office. This experience will highlight a lot of issues like that.

I think they were comparing people when working from home with themselves when working from home over an extended period, with themselves when not working from home.

Anyway they have enough now that they know they need to consider this DR scenario for the future. Whether it means more will be working from home or not, I couldnt tell you.

Donald Trump

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Fair Deal is causing quite a number of homes to remain vacant. It is utterly ridiculous.

How would you suggest that it should work? Bear in mind that not everyone going into a nursing home would intend to be going there for good (even if they end up that way). You could have old people who maybe have a fall and nobody to look after them or an unsuitable house for recuperation.

I would say that Fair Deal probably actually hastens the sale of a property on the other end because there is a defined percentage owed on it.

smurgen

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Would be worth pointing out once a physical location is no longer required, labour location is looked at next.

Why do you need to pay staff here to work at home, when you can pay staff in "low cost" locations to do the same roles. Usually the counter argument is localisation, having teams in the same office means greater "collaboration and communication". If it works out of the office, then why do you need to pay Irish wages to do it?

You already see this in IT where the majority of support work could be done remotely. So work got moved to cheaper locations at fractions of the cost.

In my line of work there are tax substance and legal considerations that require fulfilment.legally these jobs cannot be outsourced.

Claw Hammer

Fair Deal is causing quite a number of homes to remain vacant. It is utterly ridiculous.

Zenify

OwlsZat wrote: »

I'm seeing lots of houses I was looking at over the last 6 months come back onto the market. Sales falling through I'd guess. Anyone else seeing the same?

I'm seeing a couple of houses come back on market but not as much as I was expecting. I also saw a house that I was interested in go sale agreeded a little over a week ago. I rang the estate agent and they said seller wants to move fast and accepted first bid (I dont blame them).