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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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[Deleted User]

I would think the global pandemic is effecting productivity in many cases where productivity isn't as good as hoped. Folk are worried about older relatives etc etc.
Also lots of folk working from home aren't set up for it, some companies are relying on their staff to dial in on their personal laptops for example. Lots of folk have no printing facilities and the huge one is the kids in the house.

OttoPilot

ittakestwo wrote: »

That is exactly the idea behind it incase the rents go back to the level before C-19.

If a property is advertised at €2400pm for a one year lease with two months free it is really being rented at €2000pm, and so next year the max rent it can be increased to is €2080pm. The "free months" advertised in rent is bull**** and needs to be regulated by the RTB.

I have been watching that QQuarter deveopment for two months now, viewed it in Feb. There was only 1 apartment available back then, now there are 5. And there is two more buildings to be completed in may and june (pushed back now I imagine).

OEP

JimmyVik wrote: »

Some do, some dont. Most have worked from home the odd day before and some have done one or two days a week.
But it is being measured now as a strategy and the results coming back are that working from home is far less productive than working in the office, kids or no kids. The first two weeks were awful metrics altogether, but people were getting used to it, were stressed and setting up their home work environments. But the stats since then, while much better are still nowhere in the ballpark of peoples productivity in the office.

Its just something that was never measured properly before.

And I think most companies are in the same boat. WHile they will probably discover that productivity will be less, they will have to have a working WFH function in case of crisis in future.

But sure you know the way things are and always have been.
I remember being at an event where a very famous businessman laid out certain truths that apply to everyone in life. Not universal, but almost

He said, and i cant remember exactly but was along the lines of.

1 - Everybody thinks they are better at their job than everyone else is at theirs.

2 - Everybody thinks they know more about a subject that they have no expertise in than even a person with expertise in that field has.

3 - Everybody thinks they are better at their job than they actually are.

4 - Everybody thinks their own job is more important than everyone elses job.

5 - Everybody thinks their job is the hardest and everyone elses they could do easily.

number 6 can be added.

7 - Everybody thinks they are more productive than they actually are when working from home

Anyway, I ramble. Trying to do many things at once here. Even though my boss thinks its only one. His one.

Look, we are where we are. Its hard for everyone, no doubt about it. We will get through it. But working from home is always going to be a DR scenario for most companies who bother to measure this now.

That's interesting. Not disagreeing with your metrics but I have metrics on myself and I am definitely much more productive at home (So I don't just think I am, I have proof!). The constant distractions in the office waste quite a bit of time for me - I guess it's both job and individual specific and will suit each company differently.

OwlsZat

GazzaL wrote: »

If people are working from home, can the landlords increase rents for the increased wear and tear?

You should do standup.

Zenify

GazzaL wrote: »

If people are working from home, can the landlords increase rents for the increased wear and tear?

If people go on a holiday does the landlord reduce rent?

rosmoke

Probably this is already known but just putting it out there that I just spoke with BOI and they aren't looking at exemptions anymore due to COVID, probably same across all other banks so prices are definitely going down as a result.

Working in a MNT Fintech and while it's too early for stats regarding productivity, the general sentiment is that we're doing really good. Our team's stats are available and we've definitely increased our productivity.
Depends on everyone I guess but I have my own quiet office, we deal a lot with overseas colleagues so it was videoconference before as well, not much changed really.

beauf

JimmyVik wrote: »

We are noticing a drop of maybe 50% productivity with people working from home. Its not easy to make work at all. Though we are trying. And ours is a tech company.....

JimmyVik wrote: »

Some do, some dont. Most have worked from home the odd day before and some have done one or two days a week.
But it is being measured now as a strategy and the results coming back are that working from home is far less productive than working in the office,....

Its just something that was never measured properly before. ....

Impossible to measure it properly now.

Most people are working at home under adverse conditions.
Its not a valid test of working from home in the middle of pandemic and lock-down.

Its ridiculous to suggest otherwise.

Stark

I'm working from home at the moment and I'm definitely noticing a decrease in personal productivity right now. Most of it though seems to be due to anxiety from the constant onslaught of negative news from all corners and not having any access to usual recreation/hobbies.

Under different circumstances, with the option to leave the house and socialise after a day's work, I'd find it a lot more enjoyable. Certainly in the past when I've worked from home, I've been far more productive.

JimmyVik

beauf wrote: »

Impossible to measure it properly now.

Most people are working at home under adverse conditions.
Its not a valid test of working from home in the middle of pandemic and lock-down.

Its ridiculous to suggest otherwise.

All you have said is true.
Buts its also ridiculous to suggest the opposite too.
Im just pointing out what my company are saying about it at the moment.
The evidence is just not there to make companies have their staff work from home wholesale when the pandemic is over.
It is there to suggest its a good idea to make sure they are all capable of working from home.

Im sure it will be all analyzed in minute detail once its all over and conclusions drawn will be scientific.

Villa05

The Student wrote:

Rents will only fall to a place were supply meets demand, there are still plenty of people looking to rent, have a look at draft and see how many views some properties are getting.

There were a number of Facebook pleas for accommodation in Limerick for nurses who had voluntered to come here to help with c_vid, I'm sure such a scenario in other high demand areas would drive up views. The irony being that that those with 2 properties were heading of to the coast potentially spreading the disease and the people fighting it were homeless.

I hope this situation is being monitored by any new gov

GazzaL wrote:

If people are working from home, can the landlords increase rents for the increased wear and tear?

I'm sure their notifying landlord

schmittel wrote:

62,000 are holiday homes which makes sense. But 95,000 are urban, and 43,000 are apartments. From a rental point of view the majority of this stock are unlikely to be the wrong locations, uninhabitable or not serviced.

Does anyone know the definition of urban for CSO purposes

JimmyVik

Stark wrote: »

I'm working from home at the moment and I'm definitely noticing a decrease in personal productivity right now. Most of it though seems to be due to anxiety from the constant onslaught of negative news from all corners and not having any access to usual recreation/hobbies.

Under different circumstances, with the option to leave the house and socialise after a day's work, I'd find it a lot more enjoyable. Certainly in the past when I've worked from home, I've been far more productive.

I personally really like working from home, but I have a 1.5 hour commute each way

Talking to lots of people they like it the odd day and used to think they would be happy to do it full time, but they are sick of it now.
I understand exactly what you are saying.

awec

I work from home regularly, it's a bit of an oversimplification to say you are more productive. You are productive in different ways. In terms of churning through tasks you'll get more done as you'll have no distractions, but collaborating with others and mentoring more junior staff definitely is more difficult, and requires extra effort to even get the same level of productivity as you would if you were sitting beside one another.

In reality it varies massively depending on what job you have, even in sectors that you think would suit WFH perfectly. It also varies massively from person to person, some people struggle to get their head into work mode if they're not in the office. My own place is very flexible but the overwhelming majority are in the office 5 days a week through choice.

I do think this idea that there'll be any meaningful abandonment of city office locations in favour of WFH is farfetched. I think there's an element of people hoping this crisis is going to end their commute.

I think the likely outcome is that businesses that were previously intransient when it came to staff WFH will become more flexible and maybe allow WFH a day a week / month. I think businesses that have struggled for office space are likely to look more at hot desking for roles where it suits rather than having to maintain 100% capacity at all times. But once the crisis is over and offices are allowed to open again people will be back at their desks, and most of them will be glad to be there.

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

There were a number of Facebook pleas for accommodation in Limerick for nurses who had voluntered to come here to help with c_vid, I'm sure such a scenario in other high demand areas would drive up views. The irony being that that those with 2 properties were heading of to the coast potentially spreading the disease and the people fighting it were homeless.

I hope this situation is being monitored by any new gov

I'm sure their notifying landlord

Does anyone know the definition of urban for CSO purposes

Town or city with population > 1500.

beauf

JimmyVik wrote: »

All you have said is true.
Buts its also ridiculous to suggest the opposite too.
Im just pointing out what my company are saying about it at the moment.
The evidence is just not there to make companies have their staff work from home wholesale when the pandemic is over.
It is there to suggest its a good idea to make sure they are all capable of working from home.

Im sure it will be all analyzed in minute detail once its all over and conclusions drawn will be scientific.

Scientific unlikely.

What you should be comparing is the productivity of people in the office (zilch) and those at home during the pandemic. Not comparing normal productivity with that during the pandemic. Though either is a bit pointless.

I'd say one outcome will be people will look at new properties, and their existing accommodate to see how it can accommodate a home office. This experience will highlight a lot of issues like that.

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

Really all depends on what you do, certain jobs lend themselves well to wfh especially big data type roles which also tend to attract a larger proportion of people who are suited and prefer to work alone .

It doesn’t work for everything and I disagree that a zoom call is nearly as effective as meeting with people, to really get a project moving or something specific done it’s generally better to be face to face

It really doesn't when your in an organisation there is a tenancy to have meetings about meetings, with WFH and Zoom/Facetime calls it takes the need for middle management (the meeting organizers and dead wood) out of the equation. Meetings are focused one on one usually which is better.

I have been working from home since June of last year our company was ahead of the curve our CEO made the decision as we were renting a space in D4 costing 5k a month. Due to not having to pay that plus insurance . lighting, heating etc. He gave everyone a nice pay rise and an expense for ESB and broadband. We meet once every 2 weeks in Dublin in one of the workbenches in either Trinity College or Stephens green and go for lunch it works perfectly everyone has the feeling they are still working with others and when your home you dont have middle management pinging you diary with a meeting at 5:30 looking for a meeting about scheduling another meeting which can be very fustrating.

Also if any company's HR dept is worth there salt and going into a global pool they will look at the wage norm for that country when hiring.So say you want a software engineer in Dublin if he/she is worth their salt maybe 60k upwards. If they went to Mumbai in India the software engineer will be getting paid a lot less.

smurgen

The Student wrote: »

WFH is not going to happen anytime soon in the vast numbers you seem to think it is. We don't have the technical infrastructure to do this. Most businesses with people working from home are only doing the business critical tasks to keep the business going.

We also have the cultural mindset to overcome.

We still have a huge demand for properties. Some prices at the high end will decrease, it is unlikely prices are going to change dramatically.

It never ceases to amaze me how people don't comprehend or just ignore the basic economic law of supply and demand.

Our business is now 100% wfh and all tasks are being serviced. We've noted no disruption to service.our CEO last week mentioned in a group wide mail that they were surprised at the success of it and it's opened up possibilities. We are a financial services company with offices in many expensive cities.

fliball123

bubblypop wrote: »

There is no shortage of property in this country.
They may have been a shortage of affordable properties or social housing, but there is plenty of housing.

NO there is a shortage of property listen I think property will drop but there is a shortage of property and if you look at myhome from day 1 of this virus there is about 250 less properties on myhome available to buy now than there was in mid Feb. Demand is going down due to confidence and supply will follow suit, But there are over 100k on the housing list if there was enough housing why where these people not housed?

fliball123

bubblypop wrote: »

Once rents & prices drop we won't need extra houses.
Most of the calls for housing was for social or affordable housing. The government will still need to provide social housing to people who will never own their own home. But a drop in rent means that people can continue to rent in the private sector for longer.

Also, I occasionally look at places to rent on Daft, I'm not looking to move however.

Sure if everything is dropping by 90% or what ever figure is being touted then they will be affordable? no longer a need for social housing

Cuddlesworth

smurgen wrote: »

Our business is now 100% wfh and all tasks are being serviced. We've noted no disruption to service.our CEO last week mentioned in a group wide mail that they were surprised at the success of it and it's opened up possibilities. We are a financial services company with offices in many expensive cities.

Would be worth pointing out once a physical location is no longer required, labour location is looked at next.

Why do you need to pay staff here to work at home, when you can pay staff in "low cost" locations to do the same roles. Usually the counter argument is localisation, having teams in the same office means greater "collaboration and communication". If it works out of the office, then why do you need to pay Irish wages to do it?

You already see this in IT where the majority of support work could be done remotely. So work got moved to cheaper locations at fractions of the cost.

fliball123

Zenify wrote: »

If people go on a holiday does the landlord reduce rent?

Or if the Tenant goes on a weeks holiday can he get his week back..haha

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

I personally really like working from home, but I have a 1.5 hour commute each way
Talking to lots of people they like it the odd day and used to think they would be happy to do it full time, but they are sick of it now.
I understand exactly what you are saying.

I think a real measure both personally and work wise would have to be taken once lockdown is gone. Working and living in the same space and not being able to get out and having a few kids running up and down the stairs looking for anything from the new Justin Beeber album to a slice of toast to a conversation about the ethics of why the junior cert was cancelled is not the norm.

BillyBiggs

fliball123 wrote: »

Or if the Tenant goes on a weeks holiday can he get his week back..haha

A lot of tenants will use the pandemic as an excuse not to pay. Probably feck all the landlord can do to them.

Roberto_gas

It will take atleast 6-12 months for real effects of COVID-19 to showcase....dont expect dips in next 6 months in property prices....pointless debating what will happen until then. Post that anything can happen on downside depending on where the world economny and Irish economy stand ! My advise would be

1) If you have bought in last month - BE happy and cherish it. Don't lament the fact you bought at peak.
2) If you are in process of buying - halt it if you can as you will get better deals further down the road.
3) If you are renting and planning to buy - Now is the time to get mortgage ready and save as much as you can and hope you can enter the market in near future.

No one has crystal ball but the odds are now favoring people who have been waiting for a property market crash !

hmmm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Would be worth pointing out once a physical location is no longer required, labour location is looked at next.

Good point. Will companies need a silicon docks if everyone is WFH?

I think people are underestimating how long this might last. I can see companies being told to let people WFH until a vaccine is available, it makes no sense to put everyone on public transport and back into air-conditioned offices.

We could be facing over a year of this, maybe longer, and most are only 1 month in. In a year's time, WFH may be the new normal and people will have adjusted to it.

As for property market impact - everything is up in the air. Do you want to live in a city-centre location with everything shut, or somewhere more suburban or rural with more parks etc?

ELM327

hmmm wrote: »

Good point. Will companies need a silicon docks if everyone is WFH?

I think people are underestimating how long this might last. I can see companies being told to let people WFH until a vaccine is available, it makes no sense to put everyone on public transport and back into air-conditioned offices.

We could be facing over a year of this, maybe longer, and most are only 1 month in. In a year's time, WFH may be the new normal and people will have adjusted to it.

As for property market impact - everything is up in the air. Do you want to live in a city-centre location with everything shut, or somewhere more suburban or rural with more parks etc?

Except for the 700,000 who are now out of work though.
If this is the new norm going forward it don't look good

Carl D

BillyBiggs wrote: »

A lot of tenants will use the pandemic as an excuse not to pay. Probably feck all the landlord can do to them.

Cant use the pandemic as an excuse still getting 350 a week to sit at home .

A rent freeze means rent cannot be increased for that period, which could be 3 months or 5 years. It actually means nothing about not paying rent, some landlords are knocking 30% off the rent for 3 months if they can to help or sone will defer part of the rent but that has to be paid back anyway

The papers confusing people putting a title
'' Rent Freeze ''

[Deleted User]

The new norm will likely be less restrictive than the current situation. Different work practices could see some of the 700k back at work and the Covid 19 reproductive number staying below 1 (presuming we can get to that below 1 now with lockdown esque measures).

Pubs and gigs etc are a non runner for 2020 I imagine.

ELM327

Yeah. I mean if I was allowed to leave the house to go for a drive or see small groups of people then I woudl have no problem with WFH being the new norm where applicable.

Rock77

Hubertj wrote: »

Wow that is an eye opener, thanks for sharing. Ive not looked into it in that much detail. So I’ve had to listen to the looney left tell lies about housing for the last few years and hijack an election over a non issue. I will read this to better understand the statis, especially where the vacant properties are - close to urban areas etc. Perhaps that will explain the lies about a housing shortage - its a shortage in places where people want / need to live?

After learning this it’s quite interesting that you react with a negative comment about the left, what about the government that over saw all of this...

OwlsZat

I'm seeing lots of houses I was looking at over the last 6 months come back onto the market. Sales falling through I'd guess. Anyone else seeing the same?