Property Market 2020

The Student wrote: »

WFH is not going to happen anytime soon in the vast numbers you seem to think it is. We don't have the technical infrastructure to do this. Most businesses with people working from home are only doing the business critical tasks to keep the business going.

We also have the cultural mindset to overcome.

We still have a huge demand for properties. Some prices at the high end will decrease, it is unlikely prices are going to change dramatically.

It never ceases to amaze me how people don't comprehend or just ignore the basic economic law of supply and demand.

A soft landing so. Sounds familiar.

schmittel wrote: »

A soft landing so. Sounds familiar.

This time it’s different.ðŸ˜…

sweetie wrote: »

Cheaper and more properties for rent will help your first point.

Job losses and banks lending less will affect your second.

Do you agree or not that both these are happening or likely to happen given the current situation?

Where are the extra properties to live in going to come from. All political parties said in their manifestoes were going to build anywhere from 80 to 100k properties before this happened. Were they wrong?

Rents will only fall to a place were supply meets demand, there are still plenty of people looking to rent, have a look at draft and see how many views some properties are getting.

schmittel wrote: »

A soft landing so. Sounds familiar.

We are not over exposed to the property market. Govts are trying to minimize the impact of this by the covid payments between employer and employee.

It is a good idea to keep the relationship there. It can't however go on for too long.

JamesMason

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

This time it’s different.ðŸ˜…

...the fundamentals are sound...

Idbatterim

JamesMason wrote: »

...the fundamentals are sound...

that you bertie?

Hubertj wrote: »

But where will people live? I thought there has been a significant shortage of property for a number of years whether it is to rent or buy? People still need somewhere to rent if their circumstances change and they can’t buy. Emigration won’t be an option. For many immigrants returning to their home country won’t be an option.

I think sales prices and rents will decrease but what is a significant decrease? 15%? Would that take us back to 2017 prices?

There is no shortage of property in this country.
They may have been a shortage of affordable properties or social housing, but there is plenty of housing.

The Student wrote: »

Where are the extra properties to live in going to come from. All political parties said in their manifestoes were going to build anywhere from 80 to 100k properties before this happened. Were they wrong?

Rents will only fall to a place were supply meets demand, there are still plenty of people looking to rent, have a look at draft and see how many views some properties are getting.

Once rents & prices drop we won't need extra houses.
Most of the calls for housing was for social or affordable housing. The government will still need to provide social housing to people who will never own their own home. But a drop in rent means that people can continue to rent in the private sector for longer.

Also, I occasionally look at places to rent on Daft, I'm not looking to move however.

Hubertj

bubblypop wrote: »

There is no shortage of property in this country.
They may have been a shortage of affordable properties or social housing, but there is plenty of housing.

Apologies but this doesn’t make sense to me. Can you back that up with evidence? Are you telling me everyone was lying about a housing shortage? Are there Tens of thousands of empty houses and Apartments around the country? My understanding is that additional houses and apartments are required due to increased household formation due to increases in population of working age?

bubblypop wrote: »

Once rents & prices drop we won't need extra houses.
Most of the calls for housing was for social or affordable housing. The government will still need to provide social housing to people who will never own their own home.

This makes no sense. You say we won't need extra houses then you say we will! Which is it either we do or we dont!

Hubertj wrote: »

Apologies but this doesn’t make sense to me. Can you back that up with evidence? Are you telling me everyone was lying about a housing shortage? Are there Tens of thousands of empty houses and Apartments around the country? My understanding is that additional houses and apartments are required due to increased household formation due to increases in population of working age?

There are literally thousands of empty properties in this country.

Hubertj wrote: »

Apologies but this doesn’t make sense to me. Can you back that up with evidence? Are you telling me everyone was lying about a housing shortage? Are there Tens of thousands of empty houses and Apartments around the country? My understanding is that additional houses and apartments are required due to increased household formation due to increases in population of working age?

There are approx 250,000 vacant houses and apartments around the country.

12.3 per cent of the 2,003,645 dwellings that formed the Irish housing stock were vacant according to Census 2016.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/vac/

Vacant Dwellings - CSO - Central Statistics Office
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/vac/

Scandal of 3,600 council homes now lying empty - Independent.ie
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/scandal-of-3600-council-homes-now-lying-empty-37443999.html

There's 200,000 empty homes in Ireland - and 8,500 homeless - Irish Mirror Online
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/theres-200000-empty-homes-ireland-11915348

I'm on the phone so bit more difficult for me, but there's the first few results from Google. Pages more if you want to look

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/north-wall-quay-dublin-1-dublin-162471/

This time it really is different. I don't remember landlords offering free rent in 2007.

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NmYyNDllMmZhODI1YWU0MjFiY2QxMWJkNzA1MWVmMWaL3OTahPW0MlwoKhBRIAFZaHR0cDovL3MzLWV1LXdlc3QtMS5hbWF6b25hd3MuY29tL21lZGlhbWFzdGVyLXMzZXUvNi83LzY3NjFmMDI2MTg0ODM5N2NmMmE1NDU3Nzc3OTk1MWE5LmpwZ3x8fHx8fDEwNDV4NjAwfHx8fA==.jpg

bubblypop wrote: »

Vacant Dwellings - CSO - Central Statistics Office
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/vac/

Scandal of 3,600 council homes now lying empty - Independent.ie
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/scandal-of-3600-council-homes-now-lying-empty-37443999.html

There's 200,000 empty homes in Ireland - and 8,500 homeless - Irish Mirror Online
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/theres-200000-empty-homes-ireland-11915348

I'm on the phone so bit more difficult for me, but there's the first few results from Google. Pages more if you want to look

Somebody better tell the Govt they are wasting money building houses we don't need if there are so many vacant.

Hubertj

bubblypop wrote: »

Vacant Dwellings - CSO - Central Statistics Office
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/vac/

Scandal of 3,600 council homes now lying empty - Independent.ie
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/scandal-of-3600-council-homes-now-lying-empty-37443999.html

There's 200,000 empty homes in Ireland - and 8,500 homeless - Irish Mirror Online
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/theres-200000-empty-homes-ireland-11915348

I'm on the phone so bit more difficult for me, but there's the first few results from Google. Pages more if you want to look

Wow that is an eye opener, thanks for sharing. Ive not looked into it in that much detail. So I’ve had to listen to the looney left tell lies about housing for the last few years and hijack an election over a non issue. I will read this to better understand the statis, especially where the vacant properties are - close to urban areas etc. Perhaps that will explain the lies about a housing shortage - its a shortage in places where people want / need to live?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

This time it really is different. I don't remember landlords offering free rent in 2007.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/north-wall-quay-dublin-1-dublin-162471/

I pass by this place on my way to work every day (or at least i did when office was open). I think the free rent thing was on offer pre covid - they are looking for silly money aren’t they?

The Student wrote: »

Somebody better tell the Govt they are wasting money building houses we don't need if there are so many vacant.

Lol
That doesn't buy votes.
It's no lie that there are thousands of empty properties.
And, if we do have a huge recession, there will be rent reductions all over the market.

Hubertj wrote: »

I pass by this place on my way to work every day (or at least i did when office was open). I think the free rent thing was on offer pre covid - they are looking for silly money aren’t they?

€2430 a month which sounds like silly money to me, but it is a long time since I rented a property in Dublin!

This is just one example, there are a number of ads offering 1-2 free months rent.

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

No offense dude but do you have a mass amount of residential properties and commercial properties in your investment portfolio or something?

All you do on here is try convince people there will be no drop in property prices AND now you are saying companies will absolutely not makes changes to/or introduce WFH policies despite it saving them vast sums and metrics show it increases productivity.

What gives?

We are noticing a drop of maybe 50% productivity with people working from home. Its not easy to make work at all. Though we are trying. And ours is a tech company.
I think we will try to get more people working from home even one day a week in future just to be ready for another situation like this and more used to working from home.

But this working from home is far less productive than people being in the office from a day to day point of view.

A few weeks ago we were all singing its praises, but having the metrics now that we have we can see that its a big drop in productivity. Also while everyone one happy enough working from home and most people even delighted with it a few weeks ago. 90% of people now want to be back in the office.

Working from home did look like a great idea, and it is, it is not as good as it looked at the start once you start analyzing the metrics. All the same, companies need to get better at it for the future, but for us anyway its not looking like a mass switch over to working from home after this. Pity because I was really happy doing it., And if im honest i am far less productive with it, even though i try not to let that happen.

bubblypop wrote: »

Lol
That doesn't buy votes.
It's no lie that there are thousands of empty properties.
And, if we do have a huge recession, there will be rent reductions all over the market.

I have to assume they are in the wrong locations, uninhabitable, not serviced.

I still can't see huge reductions in rent, some rents are too high €2300 for a three bed semi is wrong but if people think rents are going to half I can't see it happening.

bubblypop wrote: »

There is no shortage of property in this country.
They may have been a shortage of affordable properties or social housing, but there is plenty of housing.

What country are you talking about here?

Definitely cant be Ireland.

I was thinking of buying maybe this year or next year.
Over the weekend especially i was giving my housing situation a huge amount of thought.

2 months ago, I had a nice job but was going to move to London to a new job before the summer. I was saving for a mortgage and living in a granny flat in my parents, but the mortgage idea was long term in case I got sick of London and moved home.

So now here I am.
New plan.
Im going to stay in my current job, which is safe enough, for the next year or so and ride out whats to come. Plans to buy are off the table. Plans to emigrate are off the table.
My brother recently took advantage of the lack of market and the cheap nice apartments that have come online in the last few weeks and we had a good chat yesterday.
I will do the same. Im going to start looking today for one of these good deals, before everyone else gets the idea. The plan will be to take one with a good rent and good location. Hopefully pay deposit and get a move in date of maybe start of June if I can. No point moving in sooner because this covid thing could run and run.

So i'll pay deposit now , but pay rent from June. Thats my plan. I'll post back how I got on. Maybe I wont get a deal like that, but i'll certainly give it a go.

OEP

JimmyVik wrote: »

We are noticing a drop of maybe 50% productivity with people working from home. Its not easy to make work at all. Though we are trying. And ours is a tech company.
I think we will try to get more people working from home even one day a week in future just to be ready for another situation like this and more used to working from home.

But this working from home is far less productive than people being in the office from a day to day point of view.

A few weeks ago we were all singing its praises, but having the metrics now that we have we can see that its a big drop in productivity. Also while everyone one happy enough working from home and most people even delighted with it a few weeks ago. 90% of people now want to be back in the office.

Working from home did look like a great idea, and it is, it is not as good as it looked at the start once you start analyzing the metrics. All the same, companies need to get better at it for the future, but for us anyway its not looking like a mass switch over to working from home after this. Pity because I was really happy doing it., And if im honest i am far less productive with it, even though i try not to let that happen.

Just curious, as I worked from home a lot before this, do you a lot of people have kids at home? This would impact greatly on productivity, also if you're not set up properly to work from home - laptop at the kitchen table or something.

It did take me a while to get used to it when I first started working from home but now I'm much more productive on the days I'm at home.

GazzaL

If people are working from home, can the landlords increase rents for the increased wear and tear?

The Student wrote: »

I have to assume they are in the wrong locations, uninhabitable, not serviced.

I still can't see huge reductions in rent, some rents are too high €2300 for a three bed semi is wrong but if people think rents are going to half I can't see it happening.

62,000 are holiday homes which makes sense. But 95,000 are urban, and 43,000 are apartments. From a rental point of view the majority of this stock are unlikely to be the wrong locations, uninhabitable or not serviced.

On rent reductions, I don't think anyone is suggesting rents are going to halve, but what do you think will happen with Dublin rents over the next 12 months - remain stable, fall or rise? And if rise or fall, what sort of %?

Marcusm

schmittel wrote: »

€2430 a month which sounds like silly money to me, but it is a long time since I rented a property in Dublin!

This is just one example, there are a number of ads offering 1-2 free months rent.

It’s a perfect strategy for a new property in an RPZ as it sets a high base rent to work from on any renewal.

hmmm

JimmyVik wrote: »

We are noticing a drop of maybe 50% productivity with people working from home. Its not easy to make work at all. Though we are trying. And ours is a tech company.

Funny, we are a tech company too and seeing very different results - I suppose it depends on what you are using as a metric.

Based on our surveys, probably 40-50% really enjoy it and will want to continue with WFH as their main way of working. The lack of childcare is the biggest issue affecting productivity for most of our staff, and that's a temporary problem.

I don't think it will drive some mass rural exodus as we will want people in the office for at least a day a week, and people like living in cities with everything to offer, but we could see a bit more emphasis on living in a nicer, greener, place and less emphasis on being close to the office.