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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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awec

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Out pointing and sputtering at people who have observed price reductions within the market again i see. You obviously have vested interest in property as anyone who mentions a drop you quickly smear them.

What is it about a impending global economic depression leading to a drop in property prices that you don't understand?

Just calling out the nonsense. Some good posters on here offering both sides of the coin, unfortunately some like yourself who are just making things up.

A few weeks ago it was your brother in law getting the bargain, then it was a couple your husband knows, then your vendor was negotiating their own sale price downward, and you were buying, but then you weren't. It's really hard to keep up with your ever changing reality.

You were buying a house worth 395k apparently too, but just a week earlier it was worth 345k. Then you were renting at 1500 a month, but that suddenly became 1300 a month a few days later. Your deposit was 175k at one point, then 160k, it's like nothing at all is real...

You sold in 2018 apparently. But 9 months ago you were telling us you were trying to sell a house. You were living with family after you sold in 2018, but then telling us how you would move in with family instead of renting to save money.

IndieRoar111

AmberGold wrote: »

I’ve been seriously burned in the property market before so I’d like to think I know a little about what’s going through prospective purchasers heads.

Firstly the economy is on its knees, nobody is buying or selling a thing other than food producers and pharmacists.

Don’t listen to Estate Agents they’re in survival mode and will spin any story to keep you on the hook.

This will take a year at least to play out and business,
builders and estate agents will go to the wall if they don’t have cash resources.

If it was me I’d sit back and wait, don’t listen to that voice inside your head convincing you all will be grand.

At the very worst you could find yourself buying a house and entering negative equity day one. Alternatively you could buy the house you want 25% cheaper by waiting.

Personally I’d hate to be selling a house currently.

This.

Listen to this poster guys and think critically about those posting who are in complete denial about this global economic depression causing the property market to tank. These people are either Estate agents and/or sellers who are taking to this place as a last resort as they clearly have vested interests in keeping prices artificially inflated.

You will notice they will shame anyone who posts about price reductions currently in the market and anyone who predicts a significant drop and ironically claiming these people have a vested interest lol, well guess what there is no need for prospective buyers to lie about price reductions, the market is about to fall off a cliff and it doesn't take supposed "liars" on boards to convince the general public that the writing is on the wall.

fliball123

Donald Trump wrote: »

They are cash rich because they like cash. Given a choice between letting idle workers go and giving them some of their lovely cash, I think they might tend to choose the option that allows them to keep their lovely cash

Cash rich just means the company itself can survive ok.

That would be a pretty short term view for a company why would you get rid of staff while planning for the future and most of these companies were expanding. The only reason to do as you say is if Corona and social distancing and not gong out is the new norm which it will not be as soon as the government lift the restrictions there will be people going back to there original habbits

IndieRoar111

awec wrote: »

All you’ve posted so far are unverifiable anecotes, combined with some misinformation, and you’re trying to portray them as facts.

Please don’t be offended if people don’t believe you. We’ve already had people on this thread literally invent stories of bargains and calls from EAs. There’s a lot of fantasy on here right now.

Out pointing and sputtering at people who have observed price reductions within the market again i see. You obviously have vested interest in property as anyone who mentions a drop you quickly smear them.

What is it about a impending global economic depression leading to a drop in property prices that you don't understand?

fliball123

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Companies not being able to afford advertising and cutting back on advertising. Some firms won’t see the point of advertising for a couple of months, for example a restaurant. Also businesses shutting for good and no longer needing advertising.

Yeah but you can bet that online advertising will be the last to go

Donald Trump

awec wrote: »

They will be but many of these companies that people seem convinced will be forced into mass layoffs are incredibly cash rich.

Apple for example. Yea sales will drop, but they’re still going to be reeling in eye watering profits.

They are cash rich because they like cash. Given a choice between letting idle workers go and giving them some of their lovely cash, I think they might tend to choose the option that allows them to keep their lovely cash

Cash rich just means the company itself can survive ok.

awec

GreeBo wrote: »

Of course IT companies will be impacted. Every company has customers, if your customers are impacted then your business is impacted!

They will be but many of these companies that people seem convinced will be forced into mass layoffs are incredibly cash rich.

Apple for example. Yea sales will drop, but they’re still going to be reeling in eye watering profits.

BillyBiggs

fliball123 wrote: »

How do you reckon FB will lose money from advertising revenue, I would say any one advertising now FB would have access to the biggest cohort of people on the globe cant see that diminishing at all.

Companies not being able to afford advertising and cutting back on advertising. Some firms won’t see the point of advertising for a couple of months, for example a restaurant. Also businesses shutting for good and no longer needing advertising.

GreeBo

Of course IT companies will be impacted. Every company has customers, if your customers are impacted then your business is impacted!

awec

cd76 wrote: »

Look, it's a forum where people discuss items and relay their experiences. If you want to discredit everything from everyone then that's up to you. Use judgement and decide for yourself. This forum is heavy with Estate Agents pushing their line and fair play to them for doing so. It's a tough time for their industry and they are seeking to keep it stabilised. That's understandable. But people are in the market for all sorts of reasons and the market is ticking over and the experiences that people are having are valid to post. Everyone can make up their own mind. As long as people are respectful then that is all we should ask for. My experience is in line with the posters where i have a specific property and agent where there is a 15.5% reduction(still not sold) for a house that was very much in demand from the viewing throughput I experienced on 2 occasions. Best wishes.

All you’ve posted so far are unverifiable anecotes, combined with some misinformation, and you’re trying to portray them as facts.

Please don’t be offended if people don’t believe you. We’ve already had people on this thread literally invent stories of bargains and calls from EAs. There’s a lot of fantasy on here right now.

fliball123

BillyBiggs wrote: »

You do have a point. But if you take Apple, will owning a phone that costs over €1000 new, be people’s worry after the crash? FB will surely lose revenue from advertising. Intel, who’s going to be buying swanky new laptops if they can’t afford food or rent? Okay Pfizer could do well admittedly. Airbnb will lose huge revenues, due to their business model collapsing globally.

How do you reckon FB will lose money from advertising revenue, I would say any one advertising now FB would have access to the biggest cohort of people on the globe cant see that diminishing at all.

voluntary

OwlsZat wrote: »

Out of the huge American companies here Apple FB Google Intel and Pfiser come to mind, can't really see any of their businesses being impacted. Some you could argue are more likely to expand.

Companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter, etc whose revenue comes mainly from advertisements by other businesses are already hugely affected.

BillyBiggs

OwlsZat wrote: »

Out of the huge American companies here Apple FB Google Intel and Pfiser come to mind, can't really see any of their businesses being impacted. Some you could argue are more likely to expand.

You do have a point. But if you take Apple, will owning a phone that costs over €1000 new, be people’s worry after the crash? FB will surely lose revenue from advertising. Intel, who’s going to be buying swanky new laptops if they can’t afford food or rent? Okay Pfizer could do well admittedly. Airbnb will lose huge revenues, due to their business model collapsing globally.

Villa05

Anything that can rise by 70-80% over the course of a few years can easily fall by 30%. That is the price we pay for allowing something that everybody needs to be purely decided by market forces

Thinking otherwise is delusionary

If you look at the history of the bubble the major price rises were between 1996 and 2001. The 100% mortgages of the noughties were about maintaining those gains and single digit percentage increases from 03 to 07

Id be very worried about pharma and medical devices in the post pandemic World. Security of supply will be a major issue and these operations may be seen as a priority to encourage a move back home

lomb

GreeBo wrote: »

Well banks have been lending money for ever, if they stop lending money, how do they make money themselves?

Why wouldnt a bank extend a business loan for a business that is effectively replacing an existing business that only closed due to cash flow issues?

There certainly may be an initial reduction in people socialising, but I honestly dont expect that to last much beyond the restrictions. People will be positively itching to get out IMO.

Banks are an umbrella when the sun shines. They do not finance businesses but only cash flow , there is a subtle difference. It always takes an entrepreneur to lay down around 50 percent. This isn't always true as they will provide invoice financing for goods sold but funds not received. But this isn't any different to being an umbrella in the sunshine.

Property is the only expensive asset a bank is prepared to lend up to 100 percent on(80-90 in Ireland obv) due to it being seen as good collateral and a bank actually believes it will be repaid in full.

A guy I know has around 2.5 million in rental property mortgages. As the properties are revalued as they increase the bank has allowed him to equity release 30/ into his curr nt account which he has used to buy the next one with a mortgage from the same bank based on rental cash flow.His income would be high enough yet if he went to get a mortgage for himself the max the bank would lend is 500k, yet he has 2.5 mill owes. Try to have a trading business and borrow that and you'd be laughed at. In reality the bank is providing 100/ financing as he never has any money.

fliball123

OwlsZat wrote: »

Out of the huge American companies here Apple FB Google Intel and Pfiser come to mind, can't really see any of their businesses being impacted. Some you could argue are more likely to expand.

People working from home will increase demand for the first 4 and the race to find a cure for covid will increase demand for Pfiser like I say IT companies and Pharma are the 2 industries where there will be very few job losses or pay cuts

OwlsZat

BillyBiggs wrote: »

In the unlikely event that we keep all our American companies, it’s very unlikely that they won’t make big numbers redundant.

Out of the huge American companies here Apple FB Google Intel and Pfiser come to mind, can't really see any of their businesses being impacted. Some you could argue are more likely to expand.

fliball123

cd76 wrote: »

Look, it's a forum where people discuss items and relay their experiences. If you want to discredit everything from everyone then that's up to you. Use judgement and decide for yourself. This forum is heavy with Estate Agents pushing their line and fair play to them for doing so. It's a tough time for their industry and they are seeking to keep it stabilised. That's understandable. But people are in the market for all sorts of reasons and the market is ticking over and the experiences that people are having are valid to post. Everyone can make up their own mind. As long as people are respectful then that is all we should ask for. My experience is in line with the posters where i have a specific property and agent where there is a 15.5% reduction(still not sold) for a house that was very much in demand from the viewing throughput I experienced on 2 occasions. Best wishes.

True but when someone is saying thats real proof as a poster had stated its not exactly saying its their opinion by all means have an opinion but be clear that it is in your opinion and not fact. Some properties have gone up some have gone down by smaller % some by bigger % and some have just gone from the market. I think anyone looking on here needs to be careful of people on both sides the EAs will spin saying everything is AOK nothing to see market will be coolaboula in a month or so and then you will have those who have been waiting for a crash and predicting a free house for everyone by the end of 2021. There are a lot more dynamics going on under the cover to this than meets the eye. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE

JimmyVik

cd76 wrote: »

Look, it's a forum where people discuss items and relay their experiences. If you want to discredit everything from everyone then that's up to you. Use judgement and decide for yourself. This forum is heavy with Estate Agents pushing their line and fair play to them for doing so. It's a tough time for their industry and they are seeking to keep it stabilised. That's understandable. But people are in the market for all sorts of reasons and the market is ticking over and the experiences that people are having are valid to post. Everyone can make up their own mind. As long as people are respectful then that is all we should ask for. My experience is in line with the posters where i have a specific property and agent where there is a 15.5% reduction(still not sold) for a house that was very much in demand from the viewing throughput I experienced on 2 occasions. Best wishes.

You are correct. It is a forum. People duscuss. But heresay in a forum is not proof.

Sorry, dont mena to be ragging on you at all. Just saying that we cant cite what a random person on the internet says as proof of anything. And we shouldnt.

cd76

JimmyVik wrote: »

Not getting at the person who posted what you replied to, but anonymous people stating things that happened to them or friends on the internet are NOT proof of anything.

Not saying property wont go down, i think it will imo, but taking text from an internet forum is proof of nothing one way or the other and should never be taken as so.

Look, it's a forum where people discuss items and relay their experiences. If you want to discredit everything from everyone then that's up to you. Use judgement and decide for yourself. This forum is heavy with Estate Agents pushing their line and fair play to them for doing so. It's a tough time for their industry and they are seeking to keep it stabilised. That's understandable. But people are in the market for all sorts of reasons and the market is ticking over and the experiences that people are having are valid to post. Everyone can make up their own mind. As long as people are respectful then that is all we should ask for. My experience is in line with the posters where i have a specific property and agent where there is a 15.5% reduction(still not sold) for a house that was very much in demand from the viewing throughput I experienced on 2 occasions. Best wishes.

BillyBiggs

AmberGold wrote: »

I’ve been seriously burned in the property market before so I’d like to think I know a little about what’s going through prospective purchasers heads.

Firstly the economy is on its knees, nobody is buying or selling a thing other than food producers and pharmacists.

Don’t listen to Estate Agents they’re in survival mode and will spin any story to keep you on the hook.

This will take a year at least to play out and business,
builders and estate agents will go to the wall if they don’t have cash resources.

If it was me I’d sit back and wait, don’t listen to that voice inside your head convincing you all will be grand.

At the very worst you could find yourself buying a house and entering negative equity day one. Alternatively you could buy the house you want 25% cheaper by waiting.

Personally I’d hate to be selling a house currently.

Very true. I think America is the elephant in the room, with the number of deaths from Coronavirus soaring over there. They are now in number one position for infections and will be for their death rate, as a result of the virus. If you look up the C.N.N. website, food banks are in serious trouble, with so many jobless turning up looking for food. One drive through food bank had to start giving out flyers for other food banks, when they themselves ran out of food. In the unlikely event that we keep all our American companies, it’s very unlikely that they won’t make big numbers redundant.

fliball123

cd76 wrote: »

Thanks. These are the real proof points/facts that prove the slide. Totally consistent with my experiences. Don't revert on it would be my view. Plenty of more to go after over the next 12 months. If we've seen a 15% drop in 2 weeks then there's lots more to go.

was that on a property you were looking at or on property in general, if its in all property can you put up some proof , not saying I don't believe you but be nice to see the proof?

rosmoke

IvoryTower wrote: »

Economy will be back in a month, LOL.

ahahahahaha made my day :pac:

JimmyVik

cd76 wrote: »

Thanks. These are the real proof points/facts that prove the slide. Totally consistent with my experiences. Don't revert on it would be my view. Plenty of more to go after over the next 12 months. If we've seen a 15% drop in 2 weeks then there's lots more to go.

Not getting at the person who posted what you replied to, but anonymous people stating things that happened to them or friends on the internet are NOT proof of anything.

Not saying property wont go down, i think it will imo, but taking text from an internet forum is proof of nothing one way or the other and should never be taken as so.

cd76

Dolbhad wrote: »

I was contacted by an auctioneer on a house we viewed about 6 weeks ago. We didn’t put a bid in as once we viewed the place, we knew it would go over asking. It went 30k over asking. The purchasers have pulled out and auctioneer wanted to know would we go sale agreed for the asking price. I assume auctioneer rang all the parties who placed a bid first before us and they said no.

Thanks. These are the real proof points/facts that prove the slide. Totally consistent with my experiences. Don't revert on it would be my view. Plenty of more to go after over the next 12 months. If we've seen a 15% drop in 2 weeks then there's lots more to go.

fliball123

One other stat I heard on tonight With Ivo Yeatser was that over 800k people are now in receipt of some sort of social welfare payment. We had a working population of 1.9 million so in two weeks nearly half the population who could of been looking to buy a house can no longer do so and before I get the but they were low paying jobs, not all where and usually its a couple so the other person maybe working so all kinds of permutations with in this cohort. The banks UB, BOI have stated that they cannot get to any new mortgages due to staff shortages and the overload of work for business continuity loans. Add in those who have or will take a pay cut and or lose their job in the future. A very high percentage of people who would of been going for a mortgage say 3 to 6 months ago will not be able to do so now. Add in a lot of people selling are pulling their property day on day, myhome has less properties again today than it did yesterday.

People talking about a property market at the moment need to take into context that the market is in unprecedented times and only those who have to sell (it will be interesting seeing how many properties actually sell from March to July) will sell and those who have to buy will buy.

The market is no longer normal a lot of people can no longer get credit and a lot of properties that would of been for sale are now no longer. Both of these numbers will be increasing as corona continues.

The Student

Nobody really knows what going to happen despite all of the viewpoints being aired on this forum.

This situation is not like the 2008 crash which was credit fuelled. Will property fall in price most likely some will fall but how many and by how much is negligible.

The State has too much to loose if property prices fall, from Stamp duty, bank shares, vacant property/site tax, VAT on building materials etc. There would be contraction in supply of new houses if prices fall (simple economic theory if costs are not covered supply will reduce).

People in good solid employment may be able to strike deals on new builds in the short term but if we enter a bad recession developers will slow down.

The State through its covid 19 payments both to employees and employers is trying to minimise the effect of this situation.

I don't see any long term reductions in prices simply because we have a greater demand than supply. Certainly some of the higher value houses may reduce in price ie those over €400k or so but the standard three bed semi will not massively change in price.

You may see a reduction in the value of mortgages people can access and all this will simply do is to move people down from areas they can no longer afford to areas they can afford.

We have the mortgage lending rules which have had a positive impact on controlling prices over the last number of years.

JimmyVik

fifth wrote: »

Spoke to two different EA's this week to find out if there were any new builds after coming back to market because buyers had pulled out (no harm in asking.)

EA 1 - he said yes 4 properties from one particular development had become available because buyers were uncertain about their financial future and wanted to hold off to buy during the next phase before completing purchase. Previously they had told me nothing will be available until almost 2022. They have also added 30-40k to the prices since the last time I checked the brochure early this year, so my good fortune was short lived.

EA 2 - business is booming, not one person has called to pull out of a sale she said. Asked about one particular new development and was told no room to negotiate on prices, plenty of buyers available. Economy will be back to normal in a month or so.

I am looking to buy a new build and I am looking for one at a discount if I can get one, but nothing materialising as of yet. I will likely end up paying current prices if nothing changes in a few months.

They will have a cancellations list in case people pull out.
If they get through the entire cancellation list and nobody steps in then they will probably start ringing others they think might be interested.
All you can do is leave your details with them and ask to be put on that list. You never know, you might get a call.

I would imagine that a lot of people who lost jobs or think their jobs are on the line, or even think they might get it cheaper by waiting will be pulling out at the moment.
In 6 months or a year or more even then they may reassess and get back into the market. But the safe place to be right now is at the sidelines. If you are happy to jump in at any point then get in before the sidelines start to jump back in. Though I dont think that will be for a while yet. Far too much turmoil in the jobs market at the moment.

GreeBo

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Will the banks be lending money for business purposes after this? How many restaurants will re-open?Of those, how many will achieve their previous level of sales.
There will be a folk memory of social distancing lingering long after the lockdown ends. People will not want to pack themselves into a room with strangers as before. Restaurants may have to create more space between tables. Add that to the fact that restaurant sales are one of the first things to decline in a recession. It is mostly discretionary spending and is generally one of the easiest for people to cut back on.

Well banks have been lending money for ever, if they stop lending money, how do they make money themselves?

Why wouldnt a bank extend a business loan for a business that is effectively replacing an existing business that only closed due to cash flow issues?

There certainly may be an initial reduction in people socialising, but I honestly dont expect that to last much beyond the restrictions. People will be positively itching to get out IMO.

[Deleted User]

Don’t listen to estate agents anyway, surely any one who remembers the last crash knows that much.
If someone is going to pay less for a mortgage than they’re now paying in rent I’d say keep going with the purchase.
But no way should anyone buy to let now, give it until next Jan at least.