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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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AmberGold

I’ve been seriously burned in the property market before so I’d like to think I know a little about what’s going through prospective purchasers heads.

Firstly the economy is on its knees, nobody is buying or selling a thing other than food producers and pharmacists.

Don’t listen to Estate Agents they’re in survival mode and will spin any story to keep you on the hook.

This will take a year at least to play out and business,
builders and estate agents will go to the wall if they don’t have cash resources.

If it was me I’d sit back and wait, don’t listen to that voice inside your head convincing you all will be grand.

At the very worst you could find yourself buying a house and entering negative equity day one. Alternatively you could buy the house you want 25% cheaper by waiting.

Personally I’d hate to be selling a house currently.

JamesMason

fifth wrote: »

Spoke to two different EA's this week to find out if there were any new builds after coming back to market because buyers had pulled out (no harm in asking.)

EA 1 - he said yes 4 properties from one particular development had become available because buyers were uncertain about their financial future and wanted to hold off to buy during the next phase before completing purchase. Previously they had told me nothing will be available until almost 2022. They have also added 30-40k to the prices since the last time I checked the brochure early this year, so my good fortune was short lived.

EA 2 - business is booming, not one person has called to pull out of a sale she said. Asked about one particular new development and was told no room to negotiate on prices, plenty of buyers available. Economy will be back to normal in a month or so.

I am looking to buy a new build and I am looking for one at a discount if I can get one, but nothing materialising as of yet. I will likely end up paying current prices if nothing changes in a few months.

EA2... Jesus wept

IvoryTower

Economy will be back in a month, LOL.

fifth

Spoke to two different EA's this week to find out if there were any new builds after coming back to market because buyers had pulled out (no harm in asking.)

EA 1 - he said yes 4 properties from one particular development had become available because buyers were uncertain about their financial future and wanted to hold off to buy during the next phase before completing purchase. Previously they had told me nothing will be available until almost 2022. They have also added 30-40k to the prices since the last time I checked the brochure early this year, so my good fortune was short lived.

EA 2 - business is booming, not one person has called to pull out of a sale she said. Asked about one particular new development and was told no room to negotiate on prices, plenty of buyers available. Economy will be back to normal in a month or so.

I am looking to buy a new build and I am looking for one at a discount if I can get one, but nothing materialising as of yet. I will likely end up paying current prices if nothing changes in a few months.

Dolbhad

Ozark707 wrote: »

Surely the price the house they are buying will also drop now as well? Sounds like the EA is chancing his/her arm here.

It’s a new build their buying and was told that first day (as closing date was depended on that) so don’t think there is scope at that end.

Not sure will new builds decrease in price or will builders just stop building houses for the time being.

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Less busy does not equal very low sales, you are clutching at straws now. If you are trying to prove that there was no movement in the market during recession you couldn't be further away from reality

I was around the market in 2012-2013 when i bought my house, I remember attending some very busy viewings with 15-20 people in the house at the same time. The market started to pick up speed very quickly at the end of 2012. There was plenty of stock, a lot of cash buyers waited until prices hit rock bottom before re-entering the market

Less busy means less busy as beauf said it’s relative not absolute . There was far less movement which has been proven by the numbers and my recollection of the stock is that it was generally poor but there were bargains to be had especially if you were focusing on location and prepared to do big renovations

TheSheriff

I posted a few pages back that we had negotiated 20k under asking price on a house we had bid on.

We viewed this a few days before all of this hit and I remember leaving the house (which was full of other couples) thinking this will go a good bit over asking. We were prepared to bid another 20-30k over asking and then have to bow out.....as per usual!

So now we are sitting on an offer, 20k under what we originally bid and likely 40k under what we were willing to pay only two weeks ago.

After some long and hard thinking today and weighing things up we are going to proceed at least to sale agreed stage. We'll see how things are panning out in the next few weeks before we sign anything.

Head is wrecked from thinking about it!

Browney7

Hubertj wrote: »

Ooooh facts. Thank you. Do you know why land values would decrease in value so much more than property prices?

No demand for it as developers will be sitting on land banks they won't build on and won't be willing to buy more of it. No harm for land values to take a dive

alias no.9

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Less busy does not equal very low sales, you are clutching at straws now. If you are trying to prove that there was no movement in the market during recession you couldn't be further away from reality

I was around the market in 2012-2013 when i bought my house, I remember attending some very busy viewings with 15-20 people in the house at the same time. The market started to pick up speed very quickly at the end of 2012. There was plenty of stock, a lot of cash buyers waited until prices hit rock bottom before re-entering the market

That certainly wasn't my experience. We were looking seriously in 2012, chose to take a few months break to avoid the stress with a third child arriving in late 2012. We got back into viewings in early 2013 and were sale agreed before Paddy's day.
There was very little in turnkey condition. Most of what was on the market was made up of distressed ex-rentals and executor sales with a handful forced by marriage breakups for good measure.
I doubt things will be much different thus time round. There may be a limited firesale of unsold newbuilds but for existing properties, people will stay put for a few years, it's not like there's much in the way of consequence if they stop paying the mortgage in the instance of them becoming unemployed.

beauf

Hubertj wrote: »

Whatever the reduction in prices ends up being how long will it take to get there before flattening out? Is it like 28 where it happened over 12-18 months? Or is the clown from a few pages back right and we will have the crash done in 3 months? Or am i asking how long a piece of string is?

We might have missed it, I think I was was instant crash about 2 weeks back.

No one knows. Vague guide will be China. But then it might effect their economy differently to us. We might have it harder, maybe easier. Who knows.

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That's far from very few sales, that's thousands of sales taking pace in the middle of recession in one year alone

There are always sales even in the worst years. When people take about limited supply and fall in sales. These are relative terms not absolute ones. The doom merchants that have appeared on these forums would make you believe it all stops. They seem to take the tabloid click bait statistics literally. Seem to lose sight of the wider context entirely.

Hubertj

Whatever the reduction in prices ends up being how long will it take to get there before flattening out? Is it like 28 where it happened over 12-18 months? Or is the clown from a few pages back right and we will have the crash done in 3 months? Or am i asking how long a piece of string is?

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That's far from very few sales, that's thousands of sales taking pace in the middle of recession in one year alone

]

Yeah but I think is 1/10th of what was happening back before 2008

beauf

fliball123 wrote: »

nope but they sure as sh1t went higher than 2010 - 2018 period. You only have to look at the history the bubble in the early naughties was an anomaly with prices doubling in a year and that is what happens when things like ps wage spikes up with things like benchmarking and credit is given away like confetti.

Bench marking was intended to level the inequality between the public sector and private. It arrived late to that particular party. The main cause was cheap credit and unregulated, unrestrained borrowing, and the banks started that, and everyone jumped on the bandwagon. Govt poured fuel on that runaway train.

Mic 1972

beauf wrote: »

People remember things differently. You can look it up though.

Found this from 2016

https://www.thejournal.ie/daft-report-first-quarter-2016-2708010-Apr2016/

That's far from very few sales, that's thousands of sales taking pace in the middle of recession in one year alone

beauf

Experience_day wrote: »

For lots of people I would agree it would be a poor idea especially if they need mobility. Houses will be even less liquid instruments for a while...

A family renting a house might say an expected 5 year recovery window is worth the risk of price drops.

Or someone not planning on moving at all. Plenty of people bought in 2005 and never noticed the dip. But they did notice now that they 10 years left on their 25 year mortgage...

..but it was a likely a tracker....

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Less busy does not equal very low sales, you are clutching at straws now. If you are trying to prove that there was no movement in the market during recession you couldn't be further away from reality

I was around the market in 2012-2013 when i bought my house, I remember attending some very busy viewings with 15-20 people in the house at the same time. The market started to pick up speed very quickly at the end of 2012. There was plenty of stock, a lot of cash buyers waited until prices hit rock bottom before re-entering the market

People remember things differently. You can look it up though.

2013 House Price Report released today by property website Daft.ie. Dublin's double digit growth has seen the national average asking price rise over the course of a year for the first time since 2007.

"The tale of 2013 was definitely the lack of supply in sales, rental and shared accommodation in the capital. This lack of accommodation across all sectors has had a major influence in Dublin's asking prices returning to 2007 percentage increases," commented Daft.ie's Kieran Harte.

Found this from 2016

At less than 24,000, the total number of properties for sale is at its lowest point since February 2007.

The biggest falls in availability are occurring outside Leinster: across Munster, Connacht and Ulster, there were 13,500 homes for sale in April 2016, compared to almost 21,000 two years previously.

https://www.thejournal.ie/daft-report-first-quarter-2016-2708010-Apr2016/

Experience_day

dor843088 wrote: »

If we look at the market in very simple terms. Upside vs downside.

The market has basically no upside apart from inflation as wages are not going to dramatically increase in even best case scenario and lending rules will keep a ceiling on prices.

Downside could be as much as 40% in worst case scenario if we have mass unemployment /emigration etc.

Anyone buying a house now should look at the risk reward . Huge risk no reward imo.

For lots of people I would agree it would be a poor idea especially if they need mobility. Houses will be even less liquid instruments for a while...

A family renting a house might say an expected 5 year recovery window is worth the risk of price drops.

Or someone not planning on moving at all. Plenty of people bought in 2005 and never noticed the dip. But they did notice now that they 10 years left on their 25 year mortgage...

Thargor

Do you think banks will be refusing anyone who cant show 6 months payslips? As in if you were furloughed for a month on the €350 payment and then back to work would you have to start saving again? They havent sent us home yet as we're a medical device company but stock is piling up in our warehouse fast and people are getting worried. Most of our customers are dealing flat out with Covid and not testing the smaller stuff we make kits for.

Mic 1972

Experience_day wrote: »

Like I said previously in the thread, banks are going to close shop. People that think they will get a bargain are going to be surprised.

Meanwhile the cash rich will get richer!

Correct, and there are a lot of cash buyers out there

dor843088

If we look at the market in very simple terms. Upside vs downside.

The market has basically no upside apart from inflation as wages are not going to dramatically increase in even best case scenario and lending rules will keep a ceiling on prices.

Downside could be as much as 40% in worst case scenario if we have mass unemployment /emigration etc.

Anyone buying a house now should look at the risk reward . Huge risk no reward imo.

Experience_day

JimmyVik wrote: »

I think banks will be very reluctant to lend for a couple of years yet. They will be waiting to see if there is a second, third, fourth round of this virus and only when its clear there wont be will they lend. Each revisit of the virus might put more jobs at risk. Bonuses and salary increases are out for several years I bet. And I suspect salary reductions will be the first order of business for most companies when this all starts to get back to normal.

This virus is not going away. The banks will be waiting to see.

Like I said previously in the thread, banks are going to close shop. People that think they will get a bargain are going to be surprised.

Meanwhile the cash rich will get richer!

fliball123

dor843088 wrote: »

Some houses bought in 2007 still havnt reached those highs .

nope but they sure as sh1t went higher than 2010 - 2018 period. You only have to look at the history the bubble in the early naughties was an anomaly with prices doubling in a year and that is what happens when things like ps wage spikes up with things like benchmarking and credit is given away like confetti.

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

er what, they are the same thing.

2013 was patently not a very busy year for sales compared to other 16 years around it.

Less busy does not equal very low sales, you are clutching at straws now. If you are trying to prove that there was no movement in the market during recession you couldn't be further away from reality

I was around the market in 2012-2013 when i bought my house, I remember attending some very busy viewings with 15-20 people in the house at the same time. The market started to pick up speed very quickly at the end of 2012. There was plenty of stock, a lot of cash buyers waited until prices hit rock bottom before re-entering the market

dor843088

fliball123 wrote: »

No I wouldn't say so I have seen it before if people don't get a price they have in their heads they pull the property till the market rises again and one thing you can be sure of as night follows day if prices drop over the next while they will rise again

Some houses bought in 2007 still havnt reached those highs .

JimmyVik

I think banks will be very reluctant to lend for a couple of years yet. They will be waiting to see if there is a second, third, fourth round of this virus and only when its clear there wont be will they lend. Each revisit of the virus might put more jobs at risk. Bonuses and salary increases are out for several years I bet. And I suspect salary reductions will be the first order of business for most companies when this all starts to get back to normal.

This virus is not going away. The banks will be waiting to see.

dor843088

Dolbhad wrote: »

Our AIP has just expired and employment has been affected by Covid so sadly, we won’t be able to progress matters until back to work. Even then not sure will banks insist on 6 months payslips again which could push us further down the line.

Otherwise would have done something like that. auctioneer did say they are buying another house so need a certain price or otherwise they would just take the house off market.

I think house prices will drop but quality will decrease as sellers won’t put houses on market.

Do it for research purposes ?

fliball123

Ozark707 wrote: »

Surely the price the house they are buying will also drop now as well? Sounds like the EA is chancing his/her arm here.

No I wouldn't say so I have seen it before if people don't get a price they have in their heads they pull the property till the market rises again and one thing you can be sure of as night follows day if prices drop over the next while they will rise again

Ozark707

Dolbhad wrote: »

Otherwise would have done something like that. auctioneer did say they are buying another house so need a certain price or otherwise they would just take the house off market.

Surely the price the house they are buying will also drop now as well? Sounds like the EA is chancing his/her arm here.

Dolbhad

Eric Cartman wrote: »

if you like it offer 20k under , not a mad under bid but something that makes it worth your while.

Our AIP has just expired and employment has been affected by Covid so sadly, we won’t be able to progress matters until back to work. Even then not sure will banks insist on 6 months payslips again which could push us further down the line.

Otherwise would have done something like that. auctioneer did say they are buying another house so need a certain price or otherwise they would just take the house off market.

I think house prices will drop but quality will decrease as sellers won’t put houses on market.