JimmyVik wrote: » I dont think there will be much of problem with AirBnbs soon. I think there will be a major shortage of rental properties and a shortage of sort term lets for that matter. This will be the catalyst for private landlords who were hanging in there hoping things would get better for them to sell up and ship out. The plus side is there may be a good few extra houses and apartments for a while, but I think building of new properties is going to slow to a crawl and that overhang will be swept up by buyers pretty quickly. So the renters will be competing for an even smaller pool of rentals that there are now.
MrMusician18 wrote: » That doesn't make sense unless the population explodes and building supply doesn't match. In the short term this is not going to happen, extra supply is going to come from foreign unemployed workers leaving. Ireland has a large, mobile, foreign born working cohort in the population - and they are not going to stay here to sit this out all the while paying enormous rents. Many will go home - just like in the last crisis. This in turn will cause rents to collapse, forcing some but by no means all, (no one will want to sell in a falling market) to sell, thus increasing supply on the sales side. No one wants to buy in a falling market which in turn depresses demand and prices further. The contraction in the market ultimately comes from the low end of the jobs and employment market leaving, and that is of course directly related to the success of the economy in general. These economic loops all feed into one another - break one and it impacts several others.
Hubertj wrote: » where will the workers move to? I think there will be an impact on the global economy. If we take Brazilians working in the service sector in Ireland, will they return home to Brazil where their employment prospects and earning potential is even worse? How does the social welfare system in Ireland compare to Brazil? Would they not stay and search for employment? I'm not saying people wont leave Ireland and return home but people will weigh up the benefit...... Why will rents collapse? Does that mean a 20% reduction or further? Will supply exceed demand by that much? I'm not a landlord or tenant and dont know much about the property market but there seems to be a lot of variables to consider.
beauf wrote: » That pretty much sums up the last few weeks of this forum.
beauf wrote: » To summarise this thread, "Some" people seem to think they will get all of the advantages of a falling market with none of the disadvantages. They are predicting some sort of wealth redistribution will happen where the rich get poorer and the less get richer. Also even though the economics of this are global so no one place is better than another, and demographics are entirely different than last time, it will happen exactly the same. (Regardless of not being aware of what happened last time) Except this time those that missed the boat the last time will be the only ones to catch it this time. That pretty much sums up the last few weeks of this forum.
MrMusician18 wrote: » They won't stay. They will go home to their families. A generous social welfare system is hardly any use when current rents would swallow up close to 75% of it for renting only a room in Dublin. And that's assuming they are entitled to it. Many foreigners are not. Supply only needs to slightly exceed demand for a dramatic impact on price. 5% oversupply doesn't mean a 5% reduction in prices, it is often much much more than that as the market has to find a new equilibrium level.
MrMusician18 wrote: » You are forgetting the "others", the landlords and property owners, who think that the massive economic damage and the virtual freezing of the entire economy, not just property will have close to negligible impact on the value and returns on their investment....
Queasy Tadpole wrote: » So whats everyone best guess at how much the prices on average in Dublin are going to drop? 20%? 30%? Honestly feeling my heart sink at the moment, along with everything else happening due to this mess my we might be priced out of selling and stuck here another few years.
beauf wrote: » A lot of "foreigners" are here 20yrs. This is home. A lot are in very well paid jobs many won't be going near social welfare. They will have a load of cash and have good business heads. They will be looking to take advantage of the market. What rent. Its frozen with no evictions. Everyone's predicting immediate massive falls in rent. Why would you not wait and see. People are predicting low rent and plentiful supply. Sounds like good reason to stay.
beauf wrote: » They can sell up and buy back in later. They will cash rich and will be able to out bid people.
Marius34 wrote: » It would be nice to have polls on boards for next 3-12 months prediction, I guess there is no possibility here.. So that we could see who are more reasonable here in the discussion, and who are off to the moon with their predictions. My guess fall of -5% (+/-2%).
dor843088 wrote: » First to come down to earth will be all the frothy priced properties. The silliness . The grand canal docks of this world . The stuff everyone knew was madness even at the time but just shrugged off . I think when this is said and done the average couple will be able to afford an average house because the speculators ,the funds ,the construction industry etc will have been brought back down to reality. Until next time.
Marius34 wrote: » My guess fall of -5% (+/-2%).
Claw Hammer wrote: » The funds will be getting paid to borrow money. Build to rent will be the only show in town.
dor843088 wrote: » They didnt build here in the last downturn . Theres plenty of better places to seek a yield right now than build to rent. Nobody will be building anything given the choice for quite a while I imagine.
LuckyLloyd wrote: » A ~20% drop is probable imo. It will not distribute evenly across the board - expect the higher brackets to fall less and bigger drops to take place in the commuter 2 - 3 bed market.
Assetbacked wrote: » It is worth noting that housing in Ireland is not just influenced by economic factors. SF did so well in the recent election, mainly due to the electorate being mightily annoyed at the lack of affordability in the housing market. This anger has not subsided and is a call for strong political action to take meaningful measures to make housing affordable. While the recent crisis is likely to stifle demand and a knock on is to bring down prices and people will be happy with this (not realising that it could also hurt them), irrespective of this, there is pressure on the government to make housing more affordable.
Hubertj wrote: » what do you mean by the construction industry brought back down to earth? Thousands of constructions workers unemployed? Yea that serves them right for earning a living. Regarding the construction companies the margins dont look that great on new build sales...... I do agree with you on some of the rents at top end stuff around GCD. Mad money altogether
MrMusician18 wrote: » A lot of foreigners were here 10 years, made a good life here and still left in the great recession. Many of them even had good jobs, professionals that thought themselves safe enough - but the rot spread from construction and development through the whole economy. Many wealthy will stay here, and indeed many will take advantage of a looser market, but it's those on precarious employment and students that are difference between under and over supply. Small percentages under/over equilibrium have a dramatic impact on price. It's why you see €5k/month airbnbs for 50% on daft and he won't even get that - it will remain vacant.
dubstepper wrote: » Think the horse has bolted on selling up to buy later.
