Augeo wrote: » Not at all .......... there's quite a bit of irony there. You are actually claiming I said things I didn't say and when called out on it you spiel on about the jist is this or that. It's all there in black and white.
Villa05 wrote: » @ Marius if I remember correctly up until recently and especially around the bottom 50% of sales were reported to be cash with no mortgage required, Do you know why this is not reflected in the figures. I think there was an issue around multiple sales being logged as 1 is there any other reason?
Cyrus wrote: » ....... the p1ssy comment that you have made a couple of times now is a pretty juvenile trick to try and illicit some sort of response. Im a bit disappointed in you but ill get over it. ..........
Augeo wrote: » Apolgies, p1ssy comment was uncalled for.
Hubertj wrote: » Thought this might be the place to come for balanced discussion and debate by normal people. How wrong I was. Seems to be same class that love posting on thejournal. Some proper loons in here. Definitely the last place to look for advice ideas or worthwhile opinions.
The_Conductor wrote: » You will get a broad spectrum of posters here- yes, there are some complete and utter loons- alongside some people who very obviously have particular agendas, and lots of others who try to make reasoned and rational debate, in light of the facts as they then have them. There are also many people who are dipping in and out- trying to get a feel for things, and looking at sentiment and other people's opinions before they try to make up their own minds. Its very much a mixed kettle of fish- however, if you don't offer anything to the discussion- you can't really complain that it doesn't hold anything for you..........
Cyrus wrote: » let me guess you want people to give you an exact timeline of how and when prices will drop and when the right time will be for you to buy a property at the bottom of the market ?
christy G wrote: » Do people think there will be a recession? If so will it be as bad as the last time. I'm hoping to build on family land so might get a bit cheaper. Foundation, electrical and plumbing will be done with help from family members and friends in the trade.
guyfawkes5 wrote: » A recession seems very probable, the positive estimates say that the economy will begin recovering late this year and the negative estimates say starting late next year. No economist or expert I've seen has said it will be as bad as 2008 in terms of needing many years to unwind fully (although the short term drop in employment will be worse, most economists expect most of this to be temporary and to rebound quickly).
Cyrus wrote: » Most of the cohort you mention above will be back to work in a month or 6 weeks aswell .
Cyrus wrote: » They didn't really , anyone who didn't need to sell didn't , it was a non functioning market for the most part
Melanchthon wrote: » Can we even talk long term like this though at the minute, Spain, Italy and Greece were already on shakey ground financially before this and are now most likely to loose the entire tourism revenues this summer that's 10-15% of Spain's GDP wiped out at a time when there is other economic shocks happening. What's going to happen in the Eurozone?
Mic 1972 wrote: » What's a non functioning market for you? During recession there was Supply and Demand, that's all you need for a market to function. If anything, the lack of credit from the banks kept the market real, nobody could buy outside of they possibility. Usually when banks lend money that's when you see prices going through the roof
Reversal wrote: » Any predictions I’ve seen from ESRi, CB, EY and KBC. All suggest that around half of The job losses are going to be permanent. And going into 2021 unemployment will still be over at least 10%. I’d admire your optimism though, but it’s just not credible at this point. That damage is done.
Cyrus wrote: » lets see, it all depends how long it goes on for. If its another couple of weeks do you really think every bar, restaurant, hotel and car dealership will have gone out of business and the jobs will be gone? if its another 3 months then the scenario you outline is more likely i would agree.
Reversal wrote: » True. Whenever we reach the peak here you'd have to think 'lockdown' will be in place for a couple of weeks after that. Then restrictions will be slowly lifted in layers, slowly to observe the impact. Very hard to see non essential business opening before July at earliest, unfortunately.
topmanamillion wrote: » There will absolutely be permanent job loses from this. The best case scenerio is businesses can open as normal in mid-May (highly unlikely). Even then small independent retailers will need some sort of state aid to reopen and restock, it'll be the equivalent of launching a new business with zero income to draw on for at least 2 months. The tourism industry has taken a massive hit, particularly hotels. Their advanced booking are wiped out for the next year and people are going to be wary about travel with the inevitable talk of a "second wave". Car dealerships will be looking at showrooms full of 201 cars (essentially last years models). Another financial hit to be taken here. Then there's the businesses that were just hand to mouth anyway. Even If they can drawdown some sort of state aid they may well just cut their loses. Then there's the state expenditure - massively inflated healthcare and welfare budgets with little VAT and income tax coming in. That will have to be paid for and the most likely revenue stream is increased tax.
The_Conductor wrote: » Even the people who do go back to work- aren't going to spend their disposable income as they might once have done. Anyone who is sane will try to solidify their finances, pay down debt, make sure that they're not as stretched if they end up in a similar situation again (and there could very well be a second or even a third surge of Covid, before vaccinations eventually become available). Anyone who imagines that the lockdown will be over in a couple of weeks and life will go back to normal, is a hopeless optimist, and while its nice that there are optimistic people out there, you have to be realistic. I was listening to Radio 1 this morning- a spokesperson for the CIF said we have 26k residential units at various stages of construction in the pipeline. If/when the lockdown ends- the majority of these will once again be manned and brought forward. What is far less clear is whether new sites will be started on, as we might have expected earlier this year, before everything went to hell on a broomstick. In a situation where people fundamentally change their borrowing and spending habits- and governments have to pay down their debts (with the possible exception of the US- where the dollar continues to operate as the default reserve currency)- the global economy is going to take a long long time to recover. Historically the US has been the global consumer of last resort- a market where the rest of the world could dump whatever they produce at whatever price they can get- if there is no market for it elsewhere. However, the dichotomy that has emerged there over the last few years, means it would be very dangerous for anyone to imagine that the US will bail out the global economy as it might once have done. Protectionism is growing- even in the context of the individual countries who make up the single market of the EU. The lasting legacy of Covid may be a realisation that countries cannot rely on other countries having a joint interest in each other's betterment (as evidenced by France, Germany, Spain, Italy and The US- at various stages, blocking vital aid to each other, or even in some instances practising what can only be described as piracy against one another). Things are never going to be the same again- there will be a new 'normal', but I suspect it will be a lot more insular and local in nature- than the global view a lot of countries, including Ireland, held such a short time ago. In the context of the Irish property market- what would constitute a 'new normal'. Almost certainly- demand will weaken, supply will weaken, credit will tighten, and presumably, rents will fall (reducing the imperative for many people to own property). We may have a young population- which will help us in the immediate future- but the picture as close as 10 years down the road, paints a very different picture. Our social welfare state- was hopelessly unaffordable- even before Covid broke out- we've bailed it out temporarily with borrowed money- this is something we won't be able to do going forwards- even as the number of +/>66 people looks set to double by 2029 (CSO projections). This may be the one off opportunity that an incoming government uses to implement some really odious policies- safe in the knowledge that they can sell it as prudently investing in the future of the country- and anyone who tries to sell completely unaffordable social dreams to people, may be seen by more people as charlatans and purveyors of smoke and mirrors. The recovery will be what we make it- and in an Irish context, our capacity to recover from the mess may be better than the capacity of many of our neighbours- but by God, it is going to hurt, and we most certainly are not going to return to our old 'normal'.
The_Conductor wrote: » This may be the one off opportunity that an incoming government uses to implement some really odious policies- safe in the knowledge that they can sell it as prudently investing in the future of the country- and anyone who tries to sell completely unaffordable social dreams to people, may be seen by more people as charlatans and purveyors of smoke and mirrors.
kevinc565 wrote: » Journey time is approximately the same to O'Connell bridge (40-50 minutes) Houses still going for €1.2m out in Carrickmines. Obviously not representative etchttps://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-carrickmines-avenue-carrickmines-wood-carrickmines-dublin-18/4337116
Dylan94 wrote: » I've been following this thread quite a while as was planning to buy towards the end of this year around Dublin. I dont think that there will be huge 20% plus price drops, but I also don't think that there will be no price drops. I would expect that 2nd hand houses will fall by a very maximum of 15% over the next 9-12 months and as the economy repairs it will likely go back to around current prices soon after. I dont think that the supply of new houses would completely dry up, since most of the larger developers ready have vast amounts of land bought and won't just stop building, the shareholders wouldn't be happy. They will build for a lower profit rather than no profit at all. Although I would expect new build prices to have an even smaller drop, maybe 5-7% max in the Dublin area. Probably even less so outside of Dublin. Since this isn't likely going to last too many years, I would suspect that it would be cheaper/more profitable to just keep going through it at a lower margin and I suspect we will see even less houses offering extras such as flooring included. They will find other ways to cut back to keep profits up.
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