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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

Yes, but 500k didn't lose their jobs in a month in 2008/2009 and all going well most of that 500k will be back at work this time next year.

Folk will be slower to spend though, and borrow IMO.

Borrowing 400k for a house might have seemed normal and the done thing to a couple earning a combined €120k+ a few months ago. With one or both of them working from home now and the chance that WFH might well be more common going forward folk might well think twice about spending that much on a house in a location close to work when the World might not go back to the way it was.

the 500k jobs lost is a bit of a misnomer, the majority of the jobs lost (so far) are related to hospitality sector and are hourly based jobs or lowish salaries, they arent the people buying houses.

[Deleted User]

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

........There seems to be no relationship anymore between a end produced product and stock value.

I don't think the stock market was ever rationale.

coca cola share price hit $43 in 1998, 22 years on it's $43 after trading much lower for years and years until 2015, then peaked at $60 in February and back to 1998 high again now

Increased revenue year on year and CC is a dividend paying stock, nothing too mad going on with them to be fair.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

Yes, but 500k didn't lose their jobs in a month in 2008/2009 and all going well most of that 500k will be back at work this time next year.

Folk will be slower to spend though, and borrow IMO.

Borrowing 400k for a house might have seemed normal and the done thing to a couple earning a combined €120k+ a few months ago. With one or both of them working from home now and the chance that WFH might well be more common going forward folk might well think twice about spending that much on a house in a location close to work when the World might not go back to the way it was.

WFH is fine in certain circumstances and for certain roles but it doesnt work as a wholesale approach, people are social, getting things done requires collaboration and having people together. The majority of my team cannot wait to get back to the office and its the same for most people that i speak to.

[Deleted User]

OwlsZat wrote: »

When did you sell the house you bought in 2009?

You have played a bit of a stormer on timing the market it would seem.

sold in 2017.
I was out of the country for 18 months, so renting since.
Sick of renting.
Haven't played a stormer yet, cos I haven't bought yet!!

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

the 500k jobs lost is a bit of a misnomer, the majority of the jobs lost (so far) are related to hospitality sector and are hourly based jobs or lowish salaries, they arent the people buying houses.

Mechanics, car salesmen, plant & machinery, dental nurses, dentists, retail managers, sales reps, technical sales .......... loads of folk are on the Covid19 payment thing...... it's quite widespread across lots of sectors.

The people buying houses are all getting very itchy feet.

You seem almost in denial that there might be a significant impact to the housing market.

Cyrus wrote: »

WFH is fine in certain circumstances and for certain roles but it doesnt work as a wholesale approach, people are social, getting things done requires collaboration and having people together. The majority of my team cannot wait to get back to the office and its the same for most people that i speak to.

My GF is working from home, she loves it. I'm at work but 80% of the office I'm in are WFH and most of them are saying they'd like to do so a few day/week going forward post this epidemic.

In your view house prices won't fall, no one will buy them (apart from a few if they do), and the 500k on social welfare are mainly low paid not house buying folk and most don't like working from home. Fairly blinkered view there, IMO.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

Mechanics, car salesmen, plant & machinery, dental nurses, dentists, retail managers, sales reps, technical sales .......... loads of folk are on the Covid19 payment thing...... it's quite widespread across lots of sectors.

The people buying houses are all getting very itchy feet.

You seem almost in denial that there might be a significant impact to the housing market.

My GF is working from home, she loves it. I'm at work but 80% of the office I'm in are WFH and most of them are saying they'd like to do so a few day/week going forward post this epidemic.

im impartial, we own the house that we are probably going to stay in until we downsize and we have over 50% equity in it, so im not really impacted one way or the other. I just think this talk of people getting the house they want for 30% less any time soon is fanciful.

Most of the cohort you mention above will be back to work in a month or 6 weeks aswell.

And working from home a day or two a week wont mean you will be willing to commute 60km for the other 3/4 days.

I could be wrong but i think people are overegging this, Itll pass and things will generally go back to the way they were.

Re whether people like working from home or not, its not really the point, its generally inefficient, so they can like all they want, most will be expected to be back at their place of work regardess of what they like or dont like.

[Deleted User]

You are coming across as anything but impartial.
Mentioning equity while "I just think this talk of people getting the house they want for 30% less any time soon is fanciful" doesn't sound overly impartial to be honest.

To be fair, you mentioned ..........

Cyrus wrote: »

...........The majority of my team cannot wait to get back to the office and its the same for most people that i speak to.

I put forward that what I was hearing was to the contrary and you come back with .......

Cyrus wrote: »

............

Re whether people like working from home or not, its not really the point, its generally inefficient, so they can like all they want, most will be expected to be back at their place of work regardess of what they like or dont like.

The multinational I am doing some work for currently has sent a spiel that WFH is proving to be very efficient for various metrics

skooterblue2

Cyrus wrote: »

I could be wrong but i think people are overegging this, Itll pass and things will generally go back to the way they were.

Hell no this wont be over in a few months. Even my two stupid sister in laws are starting to think that. One works for a regional paper and is now thinking she might be let go and the other is doing child care and is showing an interest in studying at 30. As soon as the initial shock of this Coronavirus sets in then the true economic crisis will become apparent. I have been saying that there would be an economic crisis at this time for over a year now and I have been poo-poo-ed. A man cannot be poo-poo-ed like that in his own home the structures of society would just break down. There would be poo-pooing everywhere!!

:D:D:D

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

You are coming across as anything but impartial.
Mentioning equity while "I just think this talk of people getting the house they want for 30% less any time soon is fanciful" doesn't sound overly impartial to be honest.

To be fair, you mentioned ..........

I put forward that what I was hearing was to the contrary and you come back with .......

The multinational I am doing some work for currently has sent a spiel that WFH is proving to be very efficient for various metrics

You are (maybe purposely) misconstruing what i am saying. The equity in my house just means that even if i need to refinance due to some financial hardship i should have enough of it paid off to allow me to do that. I am, relatively, unexposed insofar as one can be. What my house is worth means very little to me as long as its fit for our purposes (which it is) and we can afford it (which we can).

If it was worth 300k extra tomorrow or 300k less it doesnt really matter to me. So im far more impartial than someone who is waiting to buy at the moment and is willing the market down as it suits their particular circumstances.

Im glad that wfh is going so well for your company. im still pretty sure the vast majority will be back at their desks once its safe to do so. And the only other thing we have found out is that your anecdotal evidence re peoples attitudes to WFH is different to mine.

Cyrus

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Hell no this wont be over in a few months. Even my two stupid sister in laws are starting to think that. One works for a regional paper and is now thinking she might be let go and the other is doing child care and is showing an interest in studying at 30. As soon as the initial shock of this Coronavirus sets in then the true economic crisis will become apparent. I have been saying that there would be an economic crisis at this time for over a year now and I have been poo-poo-ed. A man cannot be poo-poo-ed like that in his own home the structures of society would just break down. There would be poo-pooing everywhere!! :D:D:D

so what do you think will be the outcome.

Atlas_IRL

I'm thinking of buying this year (application in and nearly approved just waiting for confirmation) but debating on holding off for a while, is it better to get the application in now so its in the system, can always just hopefully extend past the 6 months for another 6 months nd then things might be cheaper.

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

You are (maybe purposely) misconstruing what i am saying.........

Not at all, apologies if that's how it comes across.

Cyrus wrote: »

......Im glad that wfh is going so well for your company. im still pretty sure the vast majority will be back at their desks once its safe to do so. And the only other thing we have found out is that your anecdotal evidence re peoples attitudes to WFH is different to mine........

You are coming across really p1ssy there to be honest, maybe purposely.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

Not at all, apologies if that's how it comes across.

You are coming across really p1ssy there to be honest, maybe purposely.

im not being anything, our anecdotal evidence differs that's evident. And i think that everyone will be back at their desks, maybe you disagree? I know everyone in my company will be.

snotboogie

Augeo wrote: »

Mechanics, car salesmen, plant & machinery, dental nurses, dentists, retail managers, sales reps, technical sales .......... loads of folk are on the Covid19 payment thing...... it's quite widespread across lots of sectors.

The people buying houses are all getting very itchy feet.

You seem almost in denial that there might be a significant impact to the housing market.

My GF is working from home, she loves it. I'm at work but 80% of the office I'm in are WFH and most of them are saying they'd like to do so a few day/week going forward post this epidemic.

In your view house prices won't fall, no one will buy them (apart from a few if they do), and the 500k on social welfare are mainly low paid not house buying folk and most don't like working from home. Fairly blinkered view there, IMO.

I think the bolded part is far more realistic than the mass culling of office work that some people are expecting. Companies will look to encourage hot desking in a team area in the office over "owning" a space and offer more flexibility to work some time from home.

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

im not being anything, our anecdotal evidence differs that's evident. And i think that everyone will be back at their desks, maybe you disagree? I know everyone in my company will be.

I honestly think larger companies are going to facilitate working from home to a larger degree going forward then they were pre Covid19. There are huge benefits, flexibility, less commuting, less pollution.

I know plenty folk who WFH one or two days/week already.

[Deleted User]

snotboogie wrote: »

I think the bolded part is far more realistic than the mass culling of office work that some people are expecting..........

Indeed, I'm not suggesting a mass culling at all.
But I reckon the ole "everyone back to their desks" won't be the order of the day either.

skooterblue2

Cyrus wrote: »

so what do you think will be the outcome.

To the two sisters in law? The first one will be let go as she is too old (45-ish) and lazy to retrain she will be unemployed. The other one will have to upskill just to keep her place as a child carer.

Oh you mean financially? We will enter a depression as deep as the 1930's until an event will ris us out of it based on history repeating itself. I dont think we can issue more money to cover us over like we did for the the last 70 years and hope for the best.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

I honestly think larger companies are going to facilitate working from home to a larger degree going forward then they were pre Covid19. There are huge benefits, flexibility, less commuting, less pollution.

I know plenty folk who WFH one or two days/week already.

i dont disagree and this experience will give people ammunition to demonstrate they can be effective from home, but it will be 1/2 days a week, it wont change where people chose to live. And in the main people will be back in an office based enviroment.

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

i dont disagree and this experience will give people ammunition to demonstrate they can be effective from home, but it will be 1/2 days a week, it wont change where people chose to live. And in the main people will be back in an office based enviroment.

I reckon there will be a fairly significant hangover from Covid19 and people might well reckon 400k mortgages aren't the way to go.
Anyone now unaffected is surely counting themselves as quite lucky IMO, I know I am.

JimmyVik

I still have a job and was planning on buying this summer.
EVen though I dont think the effects on rent or overall prices will be as much as others think bar short term effects, I have decided that I definitely will not be buying this year. Im going to savw up and wait it out.
I think this virus will be back.
And I dont think a vaccine is as easy as a lot of people think it will be.

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

so it shows that when prices were on the floor that the amount of houses sold were less than 10% of the peak and a only a third of whats being sold now when apparently there is a massive shortage.

Spring 2012 was roughly the Dublin bottom that's around 40% of current sales, which considering record high unemployment, banks were a busted flush, IMF were running the show and that the bottom was not apparent to many until a year after it had formed.

The peak years of the previous boom only show one thing and that was the crash was our own doing and should never be used for comparison

@ Marius if I remember correctly up until recently and especially around the bottom 50% of sales were reported to be cash with no mortgage required, Do you know why this is not reflected in the figures.
I think there was an issue around multiple sales being logged as 1 is there any other reason?

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, I'm not suggesting a mass culling at all.
But I reckon the ole "everyone back to their desks" won't be the order of the day either.

you did say that people wont need to live close to work because of the prevalance of working from home, that would suggest more home working than office working if that was to be the case.

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

you did say that people wont need to live close to work because of the prevalance of working from home, that would suggest more home working than office working if that was to be the case.

The following is what I said, not at all what you think I said.
You really seem anything but impartial.

Augeo wrote: »

Yes, but 500k didn't lose their jobs in a month in 2008/2009 and all going well most of that 500k will be back at work this time next year.

Folk will be slower to spend though, and borrow IMO.

Borrowing 400k for a house might have seemed normal and the done thing to a couple earning a combined €120k+ a few months ago. With one or both of them working from home now and the chance that WFH might well be more common going forward folk might well think twice about spending that much on a house in a location close to work when the World might not go back to the way it was.

I essentially alluded to folk waiting to see how things pan out "when the World might not go back to the way it was"

Folk waiting might well lead to price drops as demand is less.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

I reckon there will be a fairly significant hangover from Covid19 and people might well reckon 400k mortgages aren't the way to go.
Anyone now unaffected is surely counting themselves as quite lucky IMO, I know I am.

potentially, im inclined to disagree with that, people have short memories relatively speaking.

but im more of an optimist, i know there are many differing views as to how all this plays out.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

The following is what I said, not at all what you think I said.

you prefaced it with a ton of ifs and buts (or rather chances and mights) but that was the jist of it no?

ELM327

Cyrus wrote: »

you did say that people wont need to live close to work because of the prevalance of working from home, that would suggest more home working than office working if that was to be the case.

I'm already thinking of moving to a different area than I was, based on only commuting 2/3 days instead of 5.

I agree there won't be a cull of office space needed but there will be an increased acceptance of WFH for those that did not have it pre covid.

My partner and I work in the same company, and I had always had wfh anytime I wanted, but she had no wfh option at all until now. Merchant facing teams were expected to be in the office, whereas any analysts were free to wfh at will (generally, depending on your manager)
I excpect this to change to WFH for everyone with a limit for some teams of 1-2 days a week

JimmyVik

Augeo wrote: »

I honestly think larger companies are going to facilitate working from home to a larger degree going forward then they were pre Covid19. There are huge benefits, flexibility, less commuting, less pollution.

I know plenty folk who WFH one or two days/week already.

i think you are right. My company was always against even though they were happy for people to work from home when they were sick.

They got caught on the ho and werent ready with the infrastructure for most of the company to start working from home when this crisis hit.

Now most companies will have the attitude that they need to have their work force ready to work from home at a minutes notice. This will require having part of their workforce work from home at all times on a rota, basically as practice for if this ever happed again. And I think this virus will be back.

Its only prudent for companies now to get their staff and the general company used to working from home

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

you prefaced it with a ton of ifs and buts (or rather chances and mights) but that was the jist of it no?

"people wont need to live close to work because of the prevalance of working from home"

That is not at all the jist of my post. If you want to you can say the jist was "some people might not want to pay 400k to live close to work when they have other options if WFH is possible".

You do seem really p1ssy for whatever reason.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

"people wont need to live close to work because of the prevalance of working from home"

That is not at all the jist of my post. If you want to you can say the jist was "some people might not want to pay 400k to live close to work when they have other options if WFH is possible".

You do seem really p1ssy for whatever reason.

the only one who is p1ssy is you, you seem to have a problem with an alternative view point to your own for whatever reason.

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

the only one who is p1ssy is you, you seem to have a problem with an alternative view point to your own for whatever reason.

Not at all .......... there's quite a bit of irony there.
You are actually claiming I said things I didn't say and when called out on it you spiel on about the jist is this or that.
It's all there in black and white.