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Share Picks 2020

beertons

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Jim2007

Bob Harris wrote: »

Right or wrong Jim the sp responds to how a company does in regard to the analysts predictions. Unless you beat with some decent guidance youre going down!

If you are betting rather than doing your homework, then you are betting on analyst rather than investing in the company. And you can't even be sure you are actually even getting the analysts honest opinion... In thirty years working at various asset management organisations, I don't know of single organisation that allows analysts to issue a report that was not approved (=edited) by their investment committee, or similar body.

I knew one woman back in late 1980s at what was then CS First Boston, who issued an unapproved and unfavourable report to her clients. And that was the last report she ever wrote, she could not even land another job in the industry, the last I heard of her is that she is a teaching assistant at some community college in the mid-west.

Jim2007

voluntary wrote: »

Did you guys notice how sentiments and narrative has changed in the last two days? That's how this thing works, from optimism to pessimism, from depression to mania. Trump could say, a beautiful example of a bipolar disorder.

Ever heard of Mr. Market? This is nothing new.

Nemeses2050

I agree with you Jim, most of the so called independent Audit companies/Analysts depend on these clients for their income...every now and then they might throw a small client under the bus but majority of time they tow their line.

voluntary

“The recession appears to be deeper and more prolonged than we were led to believe just 14 days ago when we last updated our forecasts, not just in the U.S. but globally as well,” said BofA economists led by Michelle Meyer.

iQuestion

I bought the following shares at Degiro, first time buying stocks... Only for fun but we will see
- 1 NASDAQ: GOOG @$1,168.98
- 2 NASDAQ: MSFT @$161.08
- 1 NASDAQ: TSLA @$538.48
- 10 NASDAQ: AAL @$12.78

It says -$2.70 at the top EUR MMF, I am not sure what that means, anyone has easy explaination? If I understood correctly 2.50 euro per american stock per year fee, and if my investment is below 2500 euro ill get compensated mmf hmmm...

Also planning to buy 100 shares of NYSE: DAL shall they fall below 10$

Kilboor

iQuestion wrote: »

I bought the following shares at Degiro, first time buying stocks... Only for fun but we will see
- 1 NASDAQ: GOOG @$1,168.98
- 2 NASDAQ: MSFT @$161.08
- 1 NASDAQ: TSLA @$538.48
- 10 NASDAQ: AAL @$12.78

It says -$2.70 at the top EUR MMF, I am not sure what that means, anyone has easy explaination? If I understood correctly 2.50 euro per american stock per year fee, and if my investment is below 2500 euro ill get compensated mmf hmmm...

Also planning to buy 100 shares of NYSE: DAL shall they fall below 10$

EUR MMF is essentially your cash balance, Degiro legally must place balances in a monetary fund to hold cash on behalf of its customers.

Per transaction above you would be paying roughly 2-4 euro fees so what's happened here is for your last order you didn't take into account the fees you'd owe on that transaction and it has resulted in a negative balance. I'd remedy this by a transfer of the 2.70 or more.

I believe this is what is happening

Mad_maxx

butrasgali wrote: »

What do people think of Glambia,are they worth a punt or will they go lower..

Did you buy?

If you did, sell again @9.50

It's a POS stock

butrasgali

Mad_maxx wrote:

Did you buy?

Not yet,I think it's going lower...forgive my ignorance, what's pos

carveone

voluntary wrote: »

Did you guys notice how sentiments and narrative has changed in the last two days? That's how this thing works, from optimism to pessimism, from depression to mania. Trump could say, a beautiful example of a bipolar disorder.

That's because the market participants are irrational :P

First it's "free money!!!", then "where is it!!!" (markets plummet), then the $2tn is approved and markets go completely nuts.

A few days ago, analysts were claiming "oil will go to $15, %10, $0!!". Which is always a giveaway - when they start saying complete nonsense, it's usually time to buy, especially when oil is as cheap as it's been since, what, the 1990s?

Now it's back to doom and gloom. It's like the analysts haven't noticed that a) We are in the middle of this catastrophe, one that will play out over the next two to three months and b) the trillions of dollars in stimulus that was approved hasn't been deployed yet.

To be honest, I got a bit of a surprise by this silliness - I didn't expect some stocks to be back down to their lows and I chased one or two last week like an idiot. Good way to lose money.

A good way to make money right now is to look at Blue Chip stocks that are in "Stupid" territory. Decide which will be looking fine a year or two from now and go for those. For example, Macy's (M) - what, noone is ever going to go shopping again? VIACom back down at $12, because noone is watching TV (I own VIAC by the way)?

Also, when the VIX is high, so are options prices and selling premium (ie:puts) is a good way to enter positions, assuming your margin requirements aren't stupid like mine are.

Someone mentioned DAL - not a bad idea given that Warren Buffett owns a big chunk of them. If the govt won't bail them out, he could. Sure it's only a few billion

Shedite27

Live Nation down 10% again today. Heard Mark Cuban speaking them up recently.

On the plus, they've virtually a monopoly, gigs will resume eventually, and artists who are losing money will be desperate to get touring, huge amount of people will be dying for nights out/gigs.
On the negative, will a lot of people be put off being in crowded spaces? Also a lot of the gigs that are cancelled this summer will have customers entitled to refunds, and they've quite a bit of debt already.

I think if you believe gigs will be back in business by Christmas, the share price could double in price.

Bob Harris

butrasgali wrote: »

Not yet,I think it's going lower...forgive my ignorance, what's pos

Piece of sheet

Mad_maxx

butrasgali wrote: »

Not yet,I think it's going lower...forgive my ignorance, what's pos

not a flattering description

i reckon it will bottom at 7.68 , it touched there on the london listing a few weeks back , if it drops below that and closes below , its heading for six

the company itself is sound but the market hates it right now and has done since 2015 , its briefly regained highs but always tanked soon afterwards , kerry is barely down at all relative to the rest of the market and operates in the same sector , the two companies matched each other in terms of performance for many years , that was until they decided a lady needed to be at the helm , shes been a disaster

voluntary

Veteran markets strategist James McDonald, CEO of Hercules Investments,....

By McDonald’s math, he continues to see downside risk to the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 15,000 from its current perch just above 21,000.

Dow at 15k that would be 30% below the today's valuation :eek:

carveone

voluntary wrote: »

Dow at 15k that would be 30% below the today's valuation :eek:

It's always possible, if a bit speculative. I don't think this is a repeat of the 2008 scenario, where we saw a similar bounce followed by a fall back, but in 2008 it went through the support lines and then it all got a bit crazy. I believe that once this ends (and it will), the economy can just go back to normal. Well, mostly normal.

One can always hedge against the possibility. Hmm. Take Ford for example. So, um let's see, so someone will pay you about $1 for the 2021 $4 puts.

Just because I'm too lazy to look it up: if you kept $1000 in margin for 10 contracts (I think it's about $600 or something), that'd be 100% gain in 9 months. Or you end up owning 1000 shares of Ford at net $3 or 30% less than the current price ($4.24). Which would hedge against a 30% drop pretty well

Thargor

Are ye all trading short term or buying these positions to hold? Do you not think there is a long way for this to go yet? They only announced a few hundred thousand in the unemployment figures this week because of the cut off time, the next month/quarter is going to be historic and not in a good way, theres a million other things like that to come.

Lex Luthor

Thargor wrote: »

Are ye all trading short term or buying these positions to hold? Do you not think there is a long way for this to go yet? They only announced a few hundred thousand in the unemployment figures this week because of the cut off time, the next month/quarter is going to be historic and not in a good way, theres a million other things like that to come.

I think there’s a lot more downside to come

I’m not buying anything at the moment and have a list of stocks I’m watching over the next 6 months

carveone

Lex Luthor wrote: »

I think there’s a lot more downside to come

I’m not buying anything at the moment and have a list of stocks I’m watching over the next 6 months

It's a bit tricky to tell. I'm going on the premise that an economic contraction of, say, 10% doesn't justify a 50,60,70% drop in share prices. Assuming a given business actually survives (thus you don't go racing in and buying blind, you want a bit of a plan somewhere!).

After 2008 the EU went to the precipice and had a good long look over it while the ECB sat and watched Europe go to the dogs and did nothing. It was 2011 and they were still having ludicrous discussions about €60bn funds. There are individuals on this planet with more money than that. It's evidently not making that mistake this time around.

But it all remains to be seen - Italy is really quite a concern. It's something like 4 weeks in lockdown now? They're showing real strain there... In contrast, Ireland's done a really really good job there. And in the US, there's Trump. What's he going to do next? Who knows? Every time he comes on TV, people start going bankrupt!

all about the mane

Lex Luthor wrote: »

I think there’s a lot more downside to come

I’m not buying anything at the moment and have a list of stocks I’m watching over the next 6 months

I’m in no rush. Rightly or wrongly, I believe there won’t be the usual rebound. This should take tome so need to jump in. IMO

Dots1982

Nobody investing in bearish assets yet?

all about the mane

Dots1982 wrote: »

Nobody investing in bearish assets yet?

You would be betting against every central bank and country in the world. That’s tough competition. But if you got it right you would be minted

Bob Harris

I think there will be a significant drop in the next week or two in the S&P of at least 10% I would think that should bring us to in or around the bottom. I'd be interested at those levels for picking up some long term holdings.

Dots1982

all about the mane wrote: »

You would be betting against every central bank and country in the world. That’s tough competition. But if you got it right you would be minted

I invested in an inverse ETF too close to the stimulus (I’m in red), should have waited for 3-4 days after the stimulus. I personally don’t think this is a problem with a solution. I think the best anyone can do is damage limitation between disasterous and cataclysmic with disasterous between the best case scenario. I don’t think the liquidity crisis should be mentioned in the same breath as this crisis but we will see.

I thought the market would be currently much lower than it is so I’m already wrong. Who or what percentage of people are right at the moment though And still will be right next weekend? Probably Just those who invested in bearish assets in January.

bcklschaps

Dots1982 wrote: »

I invested in an inverse ETF too close to the stimulus (I’m in red), should have waited for 3-4 days after the stimulus. I personally don’t think this is a problem with a solution. I think the best anyone can do is damage limitation between disasterous and cataclysmic with disasterous between the best case scenario. I don’t think the liquidity crisis should be mentioned in the same breath as this crisis but we will see.

I thought the market would be currently much lower than it is so I’m already wrong. Who or what percentage of people are right at the moment though And still will be right next weekend? Probably Just those who invested in bearish assets in January.

When you are down....and you see a further slide going down further.. SELL.... don't be a (bag holder) hero.

manonboard

Bob Harris wrote: »

I think there will be a significant drop in the next week or two in the S&P of at least 10% I would think that should bring us to in or around the bottom. I'd be interested at those levels for picking up some long term holdings.

I'd agree. I'm holding out for another 10% to 15% drop. I am thinking several countries are going to crack in some way, some middle eastern countries will go bananas for a short while, and the US could be a basket case due to their very slow response.

With air travel, service industry closed down, and alot of manufacturing stopped, I cant see it no getting worse than currently. I think the falls will mostly come from the US.

Poor countries like spain and italy arent going to be the only ones losing control.

Edit* WHAT happened in france last night? 23k+ new cases?

Bob24

Bob Harris wrote: »

I think there will be a significant drop in the next week or two in the S&P of at least 10% I would think that should bring us to in or around the bottom. I'd be interested at those levels for picking up some long term holdings.

I dont have a timeline in mind, but I expect a second wave of sell-offs to bring it down more than 10%.

My reasoning is that 10% would not even bring us back to last month’s lows, and IMO the extend of the health crisis in the US is only getting understood now; and the severity of the recession and debt crisis we’re getting into is growing with each day of confinement and not fully baked into the market yet simply because it isn’t known. My target is for the S&P to eventually bottom somewhere between 1600 and 2000.

Unless of course there is a new more effective treatment / vaccine for the virus in the short term or some new type of government / central bank intervention to artificially pump up the markets (the Fed starting to do like the BoJ and print money to purchase US stocks via ETFs, or something like that ... but then I would become uncomfortable with buying stocks whereby I know a central bank is a major shareholder of the company I am investing in).

Just my two cents and of course I could be completely wrong!

Bob24

bcklschaps wrote: »

When you are down....and you see a further slide going down further.. SELL.... don't be a (bag holder) hero.

Depends on everyone’s risk profile and situation, but if I had short positions at the moment I’d keep them. It is all a matter of probabilities and nothing is guaranteed, but IMO it is rather probable that a second leg of the sell-off has been initiated.

voluntary

"It is way worse than the global financial crisis of 2008-09"

Kristalina Georgieva, The Managing Director of the IMF said during yesterday's WHO press conference.

Then added: “Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill.”

Bob Harris

That is the crux of the matter. We are at a standstill and the markets are still higher than when the situation was far more bouyant not that long ago.

Bob24

Bob Harris wrote: »

That is the crux of the matter. We are at a standstill and the markets are still higher than when the situation was far more bouyant not that long ago.

Yes, and the killer is the complete lack of visibility. If things were bad but the situation relatively well understood, one could rightly say the markets are rising because they are pricing the improving future. But with a very uncertain future (and even a relatively unclear present) this doesn’t really apply.

voluntary

Just seen one of the large brokerage firms reported an unprecedented increase in new accounts created and inactive accounts resurrected (password resets). If I heard right they said 8 times the norm. Average JOE THE TAXI DRIVER is buying stocks now. Everyone seems to believe this is the opportunity of their life already.

What I think is people are going to get crushed. So many are going to lose their savings while businesses behind their stocks will start falling. There's way too much optimism in the markets at the moment. This state cannot last.

The "Standstill" means companies burn through their savings and businesses without huge cash reserves will, in big numbers, not survive.