Logan Roy wrote: » I'm actually amazed how many economists there are on Boards. Is there somewhere I can go to read their work in depth or do they only post on here?
bubblypop wrote: » The whole economy is going to go down, of course property will be affected. How anyone thinks otherwise is beyond me.
BillyBiggs wrote: » The real question in this time of lockdowns, is when will the pandemic end? That will be the determining factor as to how many businesses go bust and how far house prices fall. Think if the lockdowns last till Christmas, not so implausible if you think about it.
BillyBiggs wrote: » The real question in this time of lockdowns, is when will the pandemic end? That will be the determining factor as to how many businesses go bust and how far house prices fall. What if the lockdowns last till Christmas? Not so implausible as a timeline if you think about it.
Deleted User wrote: » Very doomsday outlook. The areas that are struggling now, will bounce back, without doubt. Pubs, hotels, travel, etc. will be the first to have a resounding bounce back. People are sitting at home scratching their holes, but they still have money coming in, and nowhere to spend it. Many are still being paid by employers, some are getting €350 off the dole. People will be crying out for holidays, nights out and a meal with the family. Retail in general will come back okay from this, in my view. The Government are already after introducing great measures to tackle exactly the issues you outline above. House prices will not drop. They'll just remain the same as they are at the moment, as people will look at this as a 'temporary' issue, and many will presume the market will pick up right back where it started. That may not actually be the case, but you could be a long time waiting to prices to come down. Rents in the meantime are unlikely to drop much at all, so for every month you pay rent, you'd have likely been better off buying the house you wanted along the way. I think of the big issues with people and property from the 'bubble', was that everyone was hellbent on 'trading up' and working their way up the property ladder. So they got stuck with houses and apartments they would never have wanted to stay in. Instead, this time around, most people are still looking just to buy their lifelong home, and as a result, things like negative equity won't mean as much this time around as people won't be actively looking to sell as much. No I'm not saying Covid19 won't have any lasting impact. But It won't be the end of the world predictions that many are making it out to be, in my opinion.
cnocbui wrote: » The virus has a maximum incubation period of 14 days, but 4-5 days is the average. If infected people are locked down with other people, it would be extremely difficult for those people to not also become infected. So realistically, all locked down clusters should have gone through the process of infection, incubation and disease and recovery, in about a month. Households without infections just continue as normal. In other words, after a month, the vast majority of currently locked down infected people should have recovered, as well as anyone who became infected by them. So the lock-down ought not to last more than a month.
voluntary wrote: » Lower prices create a great opportunity to upgrade. Less capital gains tax on BTLs and less money you need to put on top of your old gaff to get a better one. It's way more beneficial to upgrade in bear markets than in peaks. Of course, ideally, you'd sell in the peak and buy at the bottom, but that's not a realistic strategy unless you're some kind of a Nostradamus. Why would such sellers wait? To get more money but also spend way more money on a new house? Makes no sense.
cnocbui wrote: » It's a zero sum game - there is no practical advantage to trading up in a downturn because you get less for your existing house so the difference between new and old wont change much. Also, in a depressed market, the sellers of better properties who don't have a mortgage will pull them off the market leaving mostly the chaff from distressed sales, so the selection of properties will be far more limited.
Browney7 wrote: » There's some truth no doubt in what you say but to think that house prices in an already flat market won't drop after this shock is fantasy. I'm not expecting a major crash but a 10 to 20% fall in the next 18 months. Pay rise and bonus next year? "Sorry mate lost a full quarter's worth of earnings, need to tighten things up". Those stock options you were given a few years ago you were banking on - worth nothing now, sorry. Tax cuts we promised, sorry, we all have to tighten our belts and marginal rate has to go up. Very difficult to see other European governments continuing to tolerate our race to the bottom tax haven model for the likes of Facebook and Google after this. God knows what "America First" policies Trump is going to do in the run up to the election.This is a transformational black swan event.
cd76 wrote: » It is different to 2008 .. a lot worse! The shortage will evaporate. Already lots of Googlers/Linkedin/Facebook types who were renting are gone, never to return. Airbnb is gone for at least 2 years thus flooding the market with rentals. Comparing prices to 2006/08 is irrelevant. We are facing mass unemployment akin to the 80s. Likely that there will be an exodus of youth and highly qualified people thus dampning demand. Great for you if you want to proceed. Having sold and bought multiple times my strong advice to anybody in a position to pull out of a Sale Agreed (on a purchase) is to do so. Go ahead on your sale if the buyer is happy and then rent for a year and then pounce. The EAs are stressed and getting desperate.. even in the past 48 hours I have got multiple calls from EAs looking for me to bid on some houses I viewed 3 months ago. It'll be a great opportunity in a years time to buy.
pearcider wrote: » I’m assuming a 10% fatality rate once the healthcare system collapses against the current rate of 3.4%.
Captainsatnav wrote: » This guy,😀
lalababa wrote: » University of Hong Kong studied the Wuhan stats. Where there was a lot of testing and deaths, more so than anywhere else, and came up with a figure of total death rate to infection of 1.4%. I'd be inclined to go with this figure.
pearcider wrote: » Spanish flu killed relatively more and we had a much younger and fitter global population then. No obesity no diabetes and few OAPs. The only thing keeping the current death rate “low” at 3.4% is the modern intensive care we can provide but that will collapse in most countries in the next month or so because the cases are doubling every 5-8 days. In Italy it has collapsed hence the death rate of 11%. It’s just mathematics.
cnocbui wrote: » It's a zero sum game - there is no practical advantage to trading up in a downturn because you get less for your existing house so the difference between new and old wont change much.
voluntary wrote: » No, it's not a 'zero-sum game' First, 20% of 300k is 60k, but 20% of 600k is 120k. Upgradeing from a former 300k house to a former 600k house after 20% drop saves you (600-300) - (480-240) = 300-240 = 60k So even assuming low-end and high-end properties drop equally by 20% you already save 60 thousand Euros upgrading in the downturn as opposed to upgrading before the pandemic. But this is all based on a very WRONG assumption that the market moves evenly. The average CSO increase of drop cannot be simply applied to the wide market. Expensive properties in the vast majority drop by a higher percent in general than the cheaper ones. The very low end of the market may not even move that much so you may be talking about getting small hit on your sale price and saving a lot of money on your next property.
voluntary wrote: » Expensive properties in the vast majority drop by a higher percent in general than the cheaper ones. The very low end of the market may not even move that much so you may be talking about getting small hit on your sale price and saving a lot of money on your next property.
Graham wrote: » I vaguely recall it was the other way round after the GFC. Smaller/lower-end properties lost significantly more than larger/mid-high.
Maitguel wrote: » Also I see other people making the argument that there will be alot of properties sold because OAPs will be dying. This is only true if that OAP is an owner occupier or does not already have inheritance plans for that property.
cd76 wrote: » House Prices are already dropping. I've been contacted by numerous EAs this week asking if I want to throw in a number on some properties that had gone Sale Agreed and where the purchasers have withdrawn. It's happening now .. it'll continue for months. My view - as much as I don't like to see the social impacts of it - is welcome in the housing market. The only factor that could be argued is the exodus from Ireland due to unemployment. That will depend on the health risks posed in the UK and elsewhere. Traditionally during recessions Irish people emigrate 1930s/50s/80s. The rental market is collapsing and will continue that way.
