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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Mic 1972

Regarding new developments left unsold, this is one example
Asking prices for the unsold houses were dropped as early as January, before the pandemic

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-the-drive-summerseat-clonee-dublin-15/4366975

GreeBo

Reversal wrote: »

Resorting to semantics again

Not at all.
Earlier we were being told all this as if it was fact that anyone could see for themselves.

People, including myself, have provided some evidence that seems to disagree with the earlier points.

Those facts are now being called personal beliefs (which is fine) but there is still no evidence to back them up either way.

Anyone is free to have an opinion, but if you want people to listen to it you should expect to have to provide some evidence.

GreeBo

Zenify wrote: »

Are you involved in the property industry GreeBo? Do you have a vested interest in it? Looking at some previous posts you really know alot about building regulation and structure design. It might give give other readers a bit of context to your arguments about property.

Other than owning a house and looking for a potential BTL, nope.

GreeBo

FVP3 wrote: »

If there's a recession prices will fall because pent up demand will fall, along with actual demand. For all you know Ireland, or the world, could be in for a 5 year recession, or more likely wages and disposable income will stay low for that period, because nobody knows the endgame here.

I dont disagree with anything you have just said, I wasnt arguing about any of it in fact.

I just disagree that the issue is affordability rather than demand (or lack of)
In any case, affordability and demand go hand in hand, there is a demand for "affordable" houses, of course there is.
There is a demand for affordable everything!

SozBbz

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Regarding new developments left unsold, this is one example
Asking prices for the unsold houses were dropped as early as January, before the pandemic

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-the-drive-summerseat-clonee-dublin-15/4366975

Thats not a new development - look at how its decorated, its tidy but its a good 10 years old in terms of the magnolia everywhere and the "artwork" is tack. If that was a new build, it would either be completely empty or a show house - its neither.

Also not sure I'd read anything into the market based on that property. Asking €365k for a duplex in Clonee is ridiculous in the first instance. The vendor was always asking too much. Even at €340k that seems expensive. Sure its halfway up the N3.

I bought a house last year and was seeing much better value than that in much better, more established and better located areas.

Idbatterim

voluntary wrote: »

Do you think there will be any money left in the budget after the huge coronavirus related spendings? The revenues are down, the spendings are up. There's no money in the purse.

What? You think the government is going to freeze spending on providing more social and affordable housing ? The key issue that destroyed them in the election?

voluntary

SozBbz wrote: »

Thats not a new development

I know this place. There are houses and apartments built many, many years ago, unfinished and left abandoned to rot. Finishing restarted a few years back and being sold as NEW now. A risky purchase in my opinion. The price should reflect that.

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

I just disagree that the issue is affordability rather than demand (or lack of) In any case, affordability and demand go hand in hand, there is a demand for "affordable" houses, of course there is. There is a demand for affordable everything!

So ye are both correct

A There is demand for housing

B if the housing is too expensive then that demand is not met and deemed unaffordable

Market in Dublin had stalled for sometime prior to Corona virus
If supply was less than affordable demand. Prices would have continued to rise in that period

A recession would impact affordable demand and prices would need to fall to meet that demand to achieve a sale

cnocbui

I don't think the government will be spending much, if anything, on housing when this mess dies down. Any previous promises and budgets are out the window. I am mildly terrified wondering how this is all going to be paid for.

pearcider

cnocbui wrote: »

I don't think the government will be spending much, if anything, on housing when this mess dies down. Any previous promises and budgets are out the window. I am mildly terrified wondering how this is all going to be paid for.

The printing press aka inflation.

Mic 1972

voluntary wrote: »

I know this place. There are houses and apartments built many, many years ago, unfinished and left abandoned to rot. Finishing restarted a few years back and being sold as NEW now. A risky purchase in my opinion. The price should reflect that.

Street view is showing the site still in the middle of construction works, not sure how often Google updates the pictures. Anyway it looks like one of those unfortunate estates in the middle of nowhere.

cnocbui

pearcider wrote: »

The printing press aka inflation.

They will be borrowing the money, meaning it has to be repaid from taxes.

awec

voluntary wrote: »

I know this place. There are houses and apartments built many, many years ago, unfinished and left abandoned to rot. Finishing restarted a few years back and being sold as NEW now. A risky purchase in my opinion. The price should reflect that.

The decor in them looks very tiger-y.

Plain wood window frames were all the rage in the 00s.

SozBbz

awec wrote: »

The decor in them looks very tiger-y.

Plain wood window frames were all the rage in the 00s.

Completely. Plus that add is just for one unit, it doesnt look like an ad for a new development at all.

Look at the bathroom and all the tiling etc. The curtains in the kitchen. All very mid 2000's.

No way would someone pay €340-365k for that in Clonee, even if Covid19 had never happened. Its overpriced in any circumstance.

Sure we all know all new builds are grey these days. Magnolia is very 2000's.

[Deleted User]

Mic 1972 wrote: »

......
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-the-drive-summerseat-clonee-dublin-15/4366975

Brutal value even at €300k.

awec

Also Dublin 15 my arse

The_Conductor

cnocbui wrote: »

I don't think the government will be spending much, if anything, on housing when this mess dies down. Any previous promises and budgets are out the window. I am mildly terrified wondering how this is all going to be paid for.

I'd be inclined to concur with this assessment- we are massively blowing our budget out of the water here. The EU have said they won't count Covid related expenditure towards country's budgetary restrictions- however, the fact of the matter is we already have the highest per head debt in Europe- and a GNI:Debt ratio of over 100%

We were worried about what Brexit was going to do the exchequer finances- and there was also a question mark over 3 billion in corporation tax receipts. The most benign interpretation of our finances showed us slipping into a deficit in 2021- and our debt increasing by perhaps 20 billion by 2025.

That was before Covid arrived on the scene- and blew even the most pessimistic assumptions out of the water.

We're in a completely unprecedented situation- however, we entered this situation with a very poor GNI:Debt ratio (which in Ireland's context is a lot more accurate a measure than a GDP:Debt ratio).

We can borrow right now to temporarily ameliorate our Covid fight- we cannot borrow on a sustained basis to support deficit spending- and anyone who suggests we can- is nuts.

I genuinely worry for what is going to happen to our finances- and taxation of our workforce. All those workers who thought they were going to have USC abolished- or the higher threshold raised to 50k (or any of a plethora of other items that we were promised by virtually all prospective politicians at the last election- are instead going to be asked to shoulder additional taxation (and that is assuming that the temporary Covid payments all drop to regular unemployment benefit levels- and that a signficant majority of those who had the misfortune to be furloughed without pay- are brought back when times improve.

Pessimistic though that may sound- Ireland's capacity to bounce back after the current disaster- is most probably better than almost any other countries- we just can't borrow our way out of the mess- as our finances are still screwed from the last time round.

That 11 billion of 'fiscal space' that the politicians were fighting over- has gone in a puff of smoke.

The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

Also Dublin 15 my arse

I thought Clonee was Co. Meath....... Dublin 15? Lol........

nhoj88

The_Conductor wrote: »

Pessimistic though that may sound- Ireland's capacity to bounce back after the current disaster- is most probably better than almost any other countries- we just can't borrow our way out of the mess- as our finances are still screwed from the last time round.

That 11 billion of 'fiscal space' that the politicians were fighting over- has gone in a puff of smoke.

Why do you think this?

Nijmegen

nhoj88 wrote: »

Why do you think this?

10 years after the biggest boom and bust in modern economic history relative to the size of our economy, we had near full employment and a housing crisis. Ireland has a very open cyclical economy.

cd76

Queasy Tadpole wrote: »

You're dead right to be honest. I'm messing around with this bull**** now for over a year. I want it done, I don't care about a few thousand either side but now I've been pulled out of selling for the time being and there is nothing to be bought that suits.

Best of luck with your new home.

drop will likely be 20%+ .. look at 2008 and this is worse.
Go ahead if you are comfortable but a 90k reduction is worth it or getting a better house and still investing the saving.

Zenify

lomb wrote: »

2 houses sale agreed in last few days around 425k each where I am, no sign of buyer panic to me(D22)
I agreed at 450 and am happy to crack on. Im buying for the long term and haven't got the time to be diddling around waiting for prices to drop 5% over the next year only to go up 7 % the year after to account for the drop/inflation from central bank money printing.
If I was an old guy with a million in my current account I would be worrying about that printing of free money going on as we speak.

Inflation?

The central bank couldn't even get inflation printing money during an economic boom.

If you look at history economic recession/depression has brought about deflation.

The cost of oil is also a major influence in inflation and we know how that is going. Oil could also be an indication of things to come.

cd76

No they have not. Show me the source since March 20th ?

Phone is hopping with EAs offering me stuff and begging for offers. Most of them will be out of business within the next 2 months.
Happy days, market needed a savage correction. We can't have the same impact on people as in 2008. This is having a worse impact on the market but people can sit back and watch the EAs take hit. Happy days !

pearcider

cnocbui wrote: »

They will be borrowing the money, meaning it has to be repaid from taxes.

Inflation is the tax. The central banks buy the government bonds and this increases the money supply. Of course how far they can go before we turn into Venezuela is the question.

lalababa

snoopboggybog wrote: »

200000- 42K*3.5 leaves 53K deposit, 5K in fees so would need around 60K.

I could move an hour away from work and get something for 160,000 but who wants that?

Its not like i'm not employable either. Company I'm in employs 30,000 + and could pick up something in Dublin if i was badly stuck around the 55K range.

A 200k mortgage over twenty years is roughly 15k pa in repayments. You say you are paying rent of around or above that. You say you will probably not be eligible for a 200k mortgage for 5 years. 15*5= 75k in rent for that period. Surely there are houses for sale near you for less than 200k??

Rainmann

pearcider wrote: »

Inflation is the tax. The central banks buy the government bonds and this increases the money supply. Of course how far they can go before we turn into Venezuela is the question.

I think it will likely be a while before we see inflation even with the increased money supply. There will be a significant negative GDP output gap by the time the recovery begins. Also, the thing about this crisis is that it really is global and all central banks will be doing the same thing so this should help keep exchange rates in line.

Winterstale

cd76 wrote: »

drop will likely be 20%+ .. look at 2008 and this is worse.
Go ahead if you are comfortable but a 90k reduction is worth it or getting a better house and still investing the saving.

This is completely different to 2008. One obvious difference is there is a housing shortage and this will not change in next number of years. Over supply and over priced properties in 2008 is not the case now. Property prices are still 20% below the 2006 peek. A modest dip is possible/probable but will be quick to recover as the economy gets moving again and even if there was a dip (nowhere near 20%) price is relative if buying and selling a house. If your property is devalued by X amount, so is the property you wish to purchase so again its all relative. A correct price for a property is the price you are willing to pay now. I have gone sale agreed with my own property and sale agreed with a new home. I am proceeding as I am not an investor looking to profiteer on the market. I am simply moving to a more suitable home. This is not the first time I have bought and sold a property and I am very happy to proceed as are a lot of people. If you are fortunate enough to have a secure income during this crisis, I would proceed.

TheSheriff

Winterstale wrote: »

If you are fortunate enough to have a secure income during this crisis, I would proceed.

Serious question here, as I am in secure employment and not proceeding, despite numerous EAs following up the past few days.

Why would I commit to say for example a mortgage of 1600 + a month now for 35 years, when I could wait a few months and get maybe the same mortgage for 1400+ or less. (example assumes I am a FTB)

I know the variables are all unknown, the length of time this will go on, the potential downside, the potential rebound after the downside.

I just don't get this basic fact of telling people proceed when people are on the fence about buying now. If you are on the fence, presumably you are in a position to wait it out ( as assuming if you needed a place to live you wouldn't be on the fence), so why would you jump now, at the biggest time of uncertainty in our economy?

cd76

Winterstale wrote: »

This is completely different to 2008. One obvious difference is there is a housing shortage and this will not change in next number of years. Over supply and over priced properties in 2008 is not the case now. Property prices are still 20% below the 2006 peek. A modest dip is possible/probable but will be quick to recover as the economy gets moving again and even if there was a dip (nowhere near 20%) price is relative if buying and selling a house. If your property is devalued by X amount, so is the property you wish to purchase so again its all relative. A correct price for a property is the price you are willing to pay now. I have gone sale agreed with my own property and sale agreed with a new home. I am proceeding as I am not an investor looking to profiteer on the market. I am simply moving to a more suitable home. This is not the first time I have bought and sold a property and I am very happy to proceed as are a lot of people. If you are fortunate enough to have a secure income during this crisis, I would proceed.

It is different to 2008 .. a lot worse!
The shortage will evaporate. Already lots of Googlers/Linkedin/Facebook types who were renting are gone, never to return. Airbnb is gone for at least 2 years thus flooding the market with rentals. Comparing prices to 2006/08 is irrelevant. We are facing mass unemployment akin to the 80s. Likely that there will be an exodus of youth and highly qualified people thus dampning demand.
Great for you if you want to proceed. Having sold and bought multiple times my strong advice to anybody in a position to pull out of a Sale Agreed (on a purchase) is to do so. Go ahead on your sale if the buyer is happy and then rent for a year and then pounce. The EAs are stressed and getting desperate.. even in the past 48 hours I have got multiple calls from EAs looking for me to bid on some houses I viewed 3 months ago.
It'll be a great opportunity in a years time to buy.

cd76

TheSheriff wrote: »

Serious question here, as I am in secure employment and not proceeding, despite numerous EAs following up the past few days.

Why would I commit to say for example a mortgage of 1600 + a month now for 35 years, when I could wait a few months and get maybe the same mortgage for 1400+ or less. (example assumes I am a FTB)

I know the variables are all unknown, the length of time this will go on, the potential downside, the potential rebound after the downside.

I just don't get this basic fact of telling people proceed when people are on the fence about buying now. If you are on the fence, presumably you are in a position to wait it out ( as assuming if you needed a place to live you wouldn't be on the fence), so why would you jump now, at the biggest time of uncertainty in our economy?

You are right, buying now is crazy. It's crashing, there will be a flood of supply. Wait. !