TheSheriff wrote: » Again I can only offer a micro view of the D15/Meath areas in terms of new builds but I can attest to the above post re: not experiencing the demand for new builds often expressed here. We viewed a few new build developments over last year and none had sold out on day one/off planss that I can think off. Most still available. One small development in lexslip springs to mind (the view, st.marys) still had some units available months after launch and last checked had dropped ~30k off the prices. The housing crisis is an affordability issue, not necessarily a supply issue. There is an abundance of supply of rubbish houses, they are just not priced to sell.
snoopboggybog wrote: » Am 28 on 42K, two hours from Dublin, houses in my area are 200k. Can't get a mortgage and work in IT. Will have to wait another four or five years for my salary to hit 50K before i can get one or have about 60K saved to get one now. But Meh, rent is more than the mortgage would be.
Reversal wrote: » Theoretical demand of 35K a year, but how many of those want to or are in a position to buy, not all. Even the completion rate of ~20K units a year was leading to a significant buildup of unsold stock. And yes this includes the 3&4 bed semi market l, and yes in Dublin. This was widely reported on and discussed in this very thread. There may be a housing crisis but it's an affordability crisis. This demand that people keep banging on about is fictitious, and would only be realised if everyone in need of accommodation in Dublin magically got high income jobs. It certainly won't be there after this crisis. The reality is that prices did drop by 5% in Dublin throughout 2019. This mythical demand that some on here are convinced will stop prices from ever dropping does not exist in reality. And the demand that does exist is about to shrink further.
OwlsZat wrote: » Downsize. Family homes. Return to other countries. Rent. Care to explain how you failed to believe any of these were possible?
OwlsZat wrote: » https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges
Graham wrote: » 4 quarters to March '19 ?? Would be interested in seeing the figures behind the Goodbody report referenced because something doesn't add up. I wouldn't be at all surprised to discover the 'missing' 2500 units had since been sold as complete blocks/developments.
Reversal wrote: » Nope, YoY decreases in Dublin throughout 2019, and in many areas of South Dublin it was around 5%, not just D4, again well reported. On the demand point. Read it yourself:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592 No, I'm not saying everyone is wrong. It is entirely correct to say we need 35K units per year to house our citizens. My point is that those in denial here are wrong to spin this figure as 35K people a year with mortgage approval rushing out the door to buy. The article linked above shows 25% of new units in Dublin being left on the shelf, in Dublin, in 2019, before this crisis. But hey don't let hard figures stop you keeping your head in the sand.
Reversal wrote: » On the demand point. Read it yourself:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592
garhjw wrote: » I'm pretty sure Dublin saw prices increases overall in 2019 YoY by about 0.5%. Some areas of Dublin, such as D4, saw prices decrease by around the 5% you refer to. So everyone is wrong and you are right that there is an under supply of units in Ireland? and it is an affordability issue? Affordability will be addressed when supply increases and / or demand decreases?
Reversal wrote: » Theoretical demand of 35K a year, but how many of those want to or are in a position to buy, not all. Even the completion rate of ~20K units a year was leading to a significant buildup of unsold stock. And yes this includes the 3&4 bed semi market l, and yes in Dublin. This was widely reported on and discussed in this very thread. There may be a housing crisis but it's an affordability crisis. This demand that people keep banging on about is fictitious, and would only be realised if everyone in need of accommodation in Dublin magically got high income jobs. It certainly won't be there after this crisis. The reality is that prices did drop by 5% in Dublin throughout 2019. This mythical demand that some on here are convinced will stop prices from ever dropping does not exist in reality. And the demand that exist bis about to shrink further.
smurgen wrote: » Because a crap job is better than no job.
garhjw wrote: » is the point not that there is still a significant supply shortage of units in Dublin and other cities so even if demand reduces short to medium term it is still ahead of supply?
fliball123 wrote: » Why would our youth go to the UK ?
cd76 wrote: » .. with 25% unemployment and a global recession this is not a 6 to 12 month impact. We're looking at a 3 year recession and in such a case the property low is still 12 to 18 months away. People try and make ends meet and their house is the last thing they will abandon. UK and US is likely to pickup first. Ireland will see massive youth emigration to the UK like in the 50s and the 80s. It is so tragic. But that means there will be economic opportunities for those who have access to cash. Property is always a good long term investment if you buy during a recession when there is hyper deflation in house prices.
Graham wrote: » Recent buyers for "investment" purposes? Outside of the REITs my guess is that number is about as close to zero as you can get.
GreeBo wrote: » Where will all these "plenty" of people live after selling their houses?
Mic 1972 wrote: » is the analysis published somewhere on MyHome?
OwlsZat wrote: » There will be plenty of recent buyers willing to sell out of a new investment if it's going to save them financially. Do you really think everyone is firming going to hold through a downturn? Seriously delusional.
garhjw wrote: » some interesting points here on both rentals and sales. Is the projected 4.4% decrease in prices medium term as in there will be an initial more significant drop before things stabilise? Sounds optimistic...
awec wrote: » I have no evidence to support this but I would be surprised if the majority of new mortgages in the past few years weren't fixed.
Assetbacked wrote: » https://www.irishtimes.com/business/media-and-marketing/ad-giant-wpp-pulls-dividend-buyback-and-outlook-1.4216684?mode=amp To put this in context for the Irish rental market, there are thousands of employees employed in Dublin carrying out online sales for multinationals who are in an extremely vulnerable position right now. Online marketing revenue will be obliterated in the near term at least, with many of the employees not having any work to do consequently. The vast majority of the younger people employed by the multinationals are renters who, should they lose their job, will have to return home as they could be renting at 800+ their room in an apartment in Dublin and social welfare won't cover that. It is likely that no movement will happen on the jobs front until these stringent stay-at-home measures are eased as everything is essentially on hold right now, but once people start returning to work, there are likely to be job losses in the tech multinationals. This will be a hit to the demand for rentals which is going to put even more pressure on the rental return bubble to deflate. However, it is important to say again that the rental market is different to the home purchasing market, where there is chronic undersupply due to the lack of new builds the past decade, meaning there is pent up demand from FTBs in particular who are not the non-national employees of the big multinationals (for the lost part at least). Looking at the share price of Cairn and Glenveagh, the homebuilding entities, they are maybe 40% lower than what they were three months ago. This probably means that the return on shares is expected to be 40% less (although, it is possible that this drop is more significant due to the initial panic and uncertainty that followed Covid19 measures being brought in), which translates to a drop in profit on new builds of up to 40% from a few months ago. Importantly, that does not mean house prices dropping by 40%; for example, cost to build of 400k and selling for 450k 3 months ago would be a drop in house price amounting to 4.4%. This is the market view in respect of homebuilders such as Glenveagh and Cairn.
OwlsZat wrote: » Quick analysis on myhome.ie shows a 4.5% drop in asking prices since Friday. Some people will hold through any price downturn, clearly others will not.
