Share Picks 2020

Jim2007 wrote: »

Looking at the order book for the NYSE, NASDAQ or even the AMEX would suggest that that is not the case.

From an article in the FT in 2019 about algos and HFT....
'JP Morgan estimates that only about 10% of US equity trading is done by traditional investors'.

greenfield21 wrote: »

I'd love to see any technical or even active traders who are profitable long term. Anybody out there??? Just take the long view- buy a few blue chip stocks and save yourself all the stress and time. I would even say that alot of retail investors realise this after a few months by either cutting their losses and quitting completely or just returning to long term safety assets.

This often does not work out very well either... people don't have a problem picking out the good companies, they have a problem buying them at the right prices.

National Association of Investors, in the US have a tool that was developed in by a broker in Detroit in the 1950s that actually does a fairly reasonable job of ensuring the not only do people pick good stocks, they buy them at a price which gives them a reasonable chance of doing well and they also have a rule set for when to sell etc... there used to be sister organisations in Canada and the UK, but they seem to be defunct now.

My own feeling is that if your are not willing to put in say 4 hours hours a week into research, then you are probably better of dollar cost averaging on an index.

Bob Harris wrote: »

They make tiny margins all day long multiplied by millions. It's well over 50% of US trades.

Looking at the order book for the NYSE, NASDAQ or even the AMEX would suggest that that is not the case.

greenfield21

I'd love to see any technical or even active traders who are profitable long term. Anybody out there??? Just take the long view- buy a few blue chip stocks and save yourself all the stress and time. I would even say that alot of retail investors realise this after a few months by either cutting their losses and quitting completely or just returning to long term safety assets.

StockTwat29 wrote: »

Open to correction but I don't ink high frequency traders use technical analysis, their algorithms are based on dark pools and front running trades, it's not based on any analysis or research

Exactly

Mach 3 wrote: »

Some of those algorithms can do more trades in a second than most people could do in a life time. Billions upon Billions spent on research by the top firms.

They do it for the craic like!

I know that. but that i snot what I was talking about. I meant are there any people out there executing technical trades that are profitable over the long term.I'm fully aware of what the top firms are doing in relation to this.

StockTwat29 wrote: »

Open to correction but I don't ink high frequency traders use technical analysis, their algorithms are based on dark pools and front running trades, it's not based on any analysis or research

That's my understanding too.

After an ok day in the US I think they are about to go tits up over the CV and the markets will react accordingly.

RedRochey

Open to correction but I don't ink high frequency traders use technical analysis, their algorithms are based on dark pools and front running trades, it's not based on any analysis or research

Mach 3 wrote: »

Some of those algorithms can do more trades in a second than most people could do in a life time. Billions upon Billions spent on research by the top firms.

They do it for the craic like!

They make tiny margins all day long multiplied by millions. It's well over 50% of US trades.

manonboard wrote: »

I thought 99% of trades ARE done this way? By computer algorithms constantly analyzing and refining models, and fast network latency to get the price before other super computers do it? I thought all the building around the exchanges were purchased by companies who do this to have the best connection.

Who are these 99% then? First of all none of the major banking institutions do much trading on their own account, the same for pension funds and asset managers because the majority of them are just tracking various indexes, insurance companies have a very limited ability to share deal, so those are for the most part out as well.

That leaves the gullible bunch of day trades, who honestly will buy and kind of snake oil. And of course they do believe in the magic of math.

I have contacts in a fair number of financial institutions after a third year career and I now of not even on who uses any of this nonsense. That is not to say that there is not a lot of research and waffle going on, there is. But risk management will not let them near a live environment.

I only know of one operator in Dublin who tried this for real and they got slaughtered. Their beautiful algorithm had one flaw - if failed to filter out it's own trades from the rest of the market and thus used it's own trades as validation of it's actions. The result was that they ended up owning more that 50% plus one share of a couple micro caps... Consequently the micro cap's massive losses had to be consolidated into the accounts of the operator!

The Austrian parent closed them down PDQ and left it at that.

Bob24

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Anyone any idea what’s happening with Bank of Ireland? Their shares have been consistently declining (prolonged plummet might be a better phrase). Went from 8 to to 1.7 or so over the past two years.

Seems like an incredible situation for a country’s pillar bank at a time of global growth (past few weeks excepted). Surely the CEO there and senior staff must have some questions to answer? Haven’t seen any Q&As from any relevant source to shine some light?

Not sure about the specifics of BOI, but the whole European banking sector is in trouble with stock prices falling more then the overall market.
Low/negative interest rates have destroyed profits, and they are now likely to face massive defaults in the next few years.

I personally wouldn’t go close to any European bank.

Mach 3

all about the mane wrote: »

That’s what I was thinking. If technical trading really worked could they not just input an algorithm into a computer and just do it automatically? What do you think then of something like the turtles project?

Some of those algorithms can do more trades in a second than most people could do in a life time. Billions upon Billions spent on research by the top firms.

They do it for the craic like!

Nemeses2050

Take Your Pants Off wrote: »

I'm watching them atm, have you decided to go for them ?

It looks like good investment. Not as good as the American airlines, as they are safer. It has lots of cash reserves so it can for a few months even without flying. Also there's news of it yesterday it was helping uk government bringing citizens back to UK.

Only downside of them I see is that there is no govt bail out for them. And they owe 4bn to airbus in 2021 lol

yeah definitely way better than American Airlines, but you know trump is going to pump in Billions in them and prop them...I'll get in easyjet closer to GBX 500 levels.

Take Your Pants Off

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Easyjet grounded all it's fleet and it's still up nearly 6% today....

I know the China manufacturing data was better than expected, and markets rejoicing it...but who'll buy it when everything's closed here...

I'm watching them atm, have you decided to go for them ?

It looks like good investment. Not as good as the American airlines, as they are safer. It has lots of cash reserves so it can for a few months even without flying. Also there's news of it yesterday it was helping uk government bringing citizens back to UK.

Only downside of them I see is that there is no govt bail out for them. And they owe 4bn to airbus in 2021 lol

littlemac1980

Anyone any idea what’s happening with Bank of Ireland? Their shares have been consistently declining (prolonged plummet might be a better phrase). Went from 8 to to 1.7 or so over the past two years.

Seems like an incredible situation for a country’s pillar bank at a time of global growth (past few weeks excepted). Surely the CEO there and senior staff must have some questions to answer? Haven’t seen any Q&As from any relevant source to shine some light?

manonboard

all about the mane wrote: »

That’s what I was thinking. If technical trading really worked could they not just input an algorithm into a computer and just do it automatically? What do you think then of something like the turtles project?

I thought 99% of trades ARE done this way? By computer algorithms constantly analyzing and refining models, and fast network latency to get the price before other super computers do it? I thought all the building around the exchanges were purchased by companies who do this to have the best connection.

Jim2007 wrote: »

As an investor absolutely not, on the other hand as a tool vendor and information provider it can be very profitable. Thirty years working in the area of performance and attribution analysis tells me so. In my time I have met many people who have done very will in value investing and dollar cost averaging, but I never met a trader nor anyone using technical analysis over the long run.

The problem with the math of finance is that it is very seductive in the short term as it often works, but in the long term it always fail. Which is not surprising because any maths model that tries to predict human behaviour without modelling that behaviour is nonsense.

That’s what I was thinking. If technical trading really worked could they not just input an algorithm into a computer and just do it automatically? What do you think then of something like the turtles project?

Nemeses2050

Jim2007 wrote: »

The big question is what is the value of Easyjet and it's access to cash. If it is trading at say 30% - 40% of it's value on a break up basis, then it might well be work a buy, if on the other hand it is trading at say 100% - 150% then it is time to get the hell out of it.

Thanks Jim,

this is more attractive then say IAG, it has 1.5B cash (MRQ).

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Easyjet grounded all it's fleet and it's still up nearly 6% today....

I know the China manufacturing data was better than expected, and markets rejoicing it...but who'll buy it when everything's closed here...

The big question is what is the value of Easyjet and it's access to cash. If it is trading at say 30% - 40% of it's value on a break up basis, then it might well be work a buy, if on the other hand it is trading at say 100% - 150% then it is time to get the hell out of it.

all about the mane wrote: »

Do you think someone can be profitable using technical trading?

As an investor absolutely not, on the other hand as a tool vendor and information provider it can be very profitable. Thirty years working in the area of performance and attribution analysis tells me so. In my time I have met many people who have done very will in value investing and dollar cost averaging, but I never met a trader nor anyone using technical analysis over the long run.

The problem with the math of finance is that it is very seductive in the short term as it often works, but in the long term it always fail. Which is not surprising because any maths model that tries to predict human behaviour without modelling that behaviour is nonsense.

Nemeses2050

Easyjet grounded all it's fleet and it's still up nearly 6% today....

I know the China manufacturing data was better than expected, and markets rejoicing it...but who'll buy it when everything's closed here...

bcklschaps

el Fenomeno wrote: »

What are people's thoughts on Irish developers like Cairn or Glenveagh right now?

Cairns ATH was Jan 2019 at ~ 1.99. Was trading at around 1.3 before this crash, currently at 0.65ish.

How do people see the upcoming recession impacting building here? You'd expect a big government stimulus but where will the money come from after this?

Was having a cursory glance at both recently ... the SP's have been decimated...soo they are certainly tempting as a recovery play. Problem is both had very high P/E ratings (Glenveagh in particular was in Tech Company territory ffs! ).

Their business has been badly damaged by Covid-19.... through delays on projects ..but more seriously with regards to sales volumes and the prices achieved which are going to be in the doldrums for the rest of this year.

I'd take a gamble on them recovering from current prices (I notice Glenveagh up 5% today) but the SP's are NOT going back to where they were before Covid-19

coolshannagh28

Bob Harris wrote: »

Technicals remind me a bit of the Mike Tyson quote 'everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth'. Patterns are forming and then you get an unpredictable event to disrupt it.

Not to say they have no merit but they are at the mercy of these events. In saying that while the nature of the event will be unpredictable you know something will always happen.

Yes , this is about right , fundamentals are key but technical can confirm a trade , Elliot is good for long term patterns , I use fibonnacci a lot as I find that if they are correct the price is drawn to them and between them particularly at close .

el Fenomeno

What are people's thoughts on Irish developers like Cairn or Glenveagh right now?

Cairns ATH was Jan 2019 at ~ 1.99. Was trading at around 1.3 before this crash, currently at 0.65ish.

How do people see the upcoming recession impacting building here? You'd expect a big government stimulus but where will the money come from after this?

ELM327

I work a lot with economists - I'm a credit risk data analyst - and they are great at telling you why something has happened but very few will tell you what will happen next!

RedRochey

https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1231951527536943105?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1231951527536943105&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fawealthofcommonsense.com%2F2020%2F02%2F12-things-that-wont-help-you-during-a-market-correction%2F

Not having a go at you but this does make me laugh

Some technical analysis is good, other just seem to make sense with hindsight

Technicals remind me a bit of the Mike Tyson quote 'everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth'. Patterns are forming and then you get an unpredictable event to disrupt it.

Not to say they have no merit but they are at the mercy of these events. In saying that while the nature of the event will be unpredictable you know something will always happen.

voluntary

If you plan to buy something and know that you want to buy it then yes, I think looking at charts can help find the right time to do that.
I like Elliot waves as they kind of show the market sentiments and may protect you from putting money where the false hype is (correction waves) as you can look above the short term market sentiment driven often by emotions.

I like the 200-day simple moving average too and simple straight support/resistance lines. I don't look into anything fancier than that. Basics and obvious stuff only.